“Now Everyone Can Fly” - AirAsia

40
“Now Everyone Can Fly” “Now Everyone Can Fly” 2005 Third Quarter Results 25 th May 2005 2005 Third Quarter Results 25 th May 2005

Transcript of “Now Everyone Can Fly” - AirAsia

Page 1: “Now Everyone Can Fly” - AirAsia

“Now Everyone Can Fly”“Now Everyone Can Fly”

2005 Third Quarter Results25th May 2005

2005 Third Quarter Results25th May 2005

Page 2: “Now Everyone Can Fly” - AirAsia

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Now Everyone Can FlyDisclaimer

Information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference and is strictly confidential. Such information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company. Neither we nor our advisors make any representation regarding, and assumes no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in, any information contained herein.

In addition, the information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect the company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on current assumptions which are subject to various risks and which may change over time. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the company’s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.

This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent of Company management under any circumstance.

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Now Everyone Can FlyAgenda

1. Highlight & Events

2. Results Commentary – Third Quarter 2005

3. Cost Management

4. Airbus Updates

5. Outlook

Question & Answers

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1. Highlight & Events1. Highlight & Events

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Now Everyone Can Fly

Strong growth trajectory despite tough market conditions

Q3FY05 passenger numbers up 52% YoY– not even slow season or a Tsunami gets in the way of growth

Profits up 152%– major growth on Q3FY04, despite a 48% rise in jet fuel prices

Loads and fares levels improve– unit cost discipline maintained; margins still top the industry

New markets, rising frequencies drive record year– may miss prospectus earnings estimates, but still in for bumper profits

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Now Everyone Can FlyOther developments

Encouraging debut performance in Indonesia – carried 119,992 passengers with only two aircraft

Profitability in Thailand– first profitable quarter (turnaround achieved despite tsunami & terrorist

attacks)

100 Airbus Order Concluded– guarantees continuous supply of aircraft and secures low cost structure

AirAsia inducted to MSCI Emerging Market Index, 1st March– benefits almost immediate; net uptake by index funds

Appointment of Timothy Ross as Independent Director

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Now Everyone Can FlyThree routes added in the Network

We fly to more destinations in SE. Asia than MAS or SIA. We haveWe fly to more destinations in SE. Asia than MAS or SIA. We have domestic operations in domestic operations in three markets, a feat not easily duplicated by any airline.three markets, a feat not easily duplicated by any airline.

334851

28

26

20

15

13

11

10

8

7

6

Destinations Served*

Aug 2004

Jan 2002

Jun 2004

Sep 2004Dec 2004Apr 2005

Mar 2004

Dec 2003

Sep 2003

Jun 2003

Mar 2003

Dec 2002

Sep 2002

Period

* Excludes Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok as destinations

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Now Everyone Can FlyGrowth, Growth, Growth

1,561 1,630

4,545

1,354

2,839

1,481

611291

M ar-2001 Jun-2002 Jun-2003 Jun-2004 1Q-2005 2Q-2005 3Q-2005 2005(ytd)

Passengers Flown by Passengers Flown by AirAsiaAirAsia Group Group ((‘‘000)000)

There is no stopping the LCC phenomenon

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Now Everyone Can Fly

New routes, rather than falling demand impact loads

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2002 2003 2004 2005 (ytd)62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%ASK (Malaysia)ASK (Associates)Load Factor

ASK, RPK and Load Factor (%) ASK, RPK and Load Factor (%) AirAsiaAirAsia GroupGroup

Not just any kind of growth, but HIGH QUALITY GROWTH

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Now Everyone Can FlyProfitability linked to fleet development

2 37

13

20 18

4

66

22

Mar

-01

Jun-

02

Jun-

03

Jun-

04

Mar

-05

NO

W

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Aircraft ExpansionAircraft Expansion

Slight shortage of originally stated number of aircraft- merely a delay in rollout; confident of acquiring 40 aircraft by year end

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Now Everyone Can FlyImpact of aircraft deployment delays - YTD

24.4321.95

22.8

28.0

Quarter 2 Quarter 3

Actual

Forecast

Average # aircraftAverage # aircraft

2189 2348

588

77

Quarter 2 Quarter 3

ASK lost

ASK

Capacity lossCapacity loss

We are 3.57 aircraft short of forecast

Resulting capacity loss equates to 665 million ASK (13% shortfall)

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Now Everyone Can FlyCost Management

2.35

1.961.71

1.201.03 1.00

2.122.13

2.18

2.50

2.90

3.40

2002 2003 2004 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005

Cost / ASK

Non Fuel Cost

Cost / ASK (US cents)Cost / ASK (US cents)

Superior cost containment despite fuel price impactMalaysian Operations

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Now Everyone Can FlyWhat about Profit Margins?

The numbers speaks for themselves

11.6671151724EBIT

24.3161824173735EBITDAR

9.252841225Net Income

AVERAGESouth West

JetBlue

VirginBlue

EasyJet

Ryanair

AirAsia

Profitability Margin% (latest)

Source: AirAsia; Bloomberg; latest company reports

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Now Everyone Can FlyPeople, People, People

Timothy RossIndependent Director

Research Analyst for UBS- 14 years experience in the

financial industry- experience spanning, Asia

Pacific, Europe and the USA

Highly experienced & well regarded in the airline industry- voted #1 in Institutional Investor poll

four years in a row by fund managers

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2. Third Quarter Results Commentary2. Third Quarter Results Commentary

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Now Everyone Can FlyOperational Statistics

Passenger volumes increased by 52% YoY

Superior capacity growth YoY(ASK increased by 71%, RPK increased by 72%)

Load factor improved by 2% point; stronger demand by the traveling public

Superior cost containment. Cost savings via economies of scale, effective marketing & promotion and increased productivity offsets rising fuel price

Yields reduced by 4% due longer trip length (growth of 13% vs. Q3FY04), although average fares continue to rise 11% YoY

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Now Everyone Can FlyOperational Statistics

10.60

12

10

2.10

3.78

965

689

129

722,150

70%

Q3 -2004

20# aircraft (end)

17.07

19

2.12

3.63

1650

1187

143

1,099,596

72%

Q3 -2005

61%Average # aircraft

1%Cost/ASK (US cents)

# aircraft (beginning)

(4%)Rev/RPK (US cents)

71%ASK (mn)

72%RPK (mn)

11%Average fare (RM)

52%# Passengers

Average Load factor

∆ y-o-yOperational Statistics

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Now Everyone Can FlyThailand takes off

6

508

351

2.50

120

410,005

69%

Q3 -2005

3

247

182

2.83

99

230,831

74%

Q4 -2004

3.142.57Cost / ASK (US cents)

46# aircraft (end)

371

314

99

369,340

84%

Q1 -2005

544

409

115

434,865

77%

Q2 -2005

ASK (mn)

RPK (mn)

Average fare (RM)

# Passengers

Average Load factor

Thailand Statistics

Within a year, we are now the market leaders in Thailand

Strong passenger growth with improving yield and lowered cost

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Now Everyone Can FlyFinancial Highlights – Q3 2005

71%

152%

128%

123%

81%

67%

965

16,172

17,210

21,076

31,694

98,134

Q3 2004

1650

40,611

(1,106)

39,315

46,999

57,332

163,911

Q3 2005

Net Income

EBIT

Share of Associates

ASK (million)

EBITDA

EBITDAR

Revenue

Year End : June Figures in RM ‘000, unless otherwise stated

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Now Everyone Can FlyPerformance Indicator

Consistent EBITDAR margin improvement

Profitability intact despite losses in Indonesia and fuel price spike

382625

Q2 2005

321817

Q3 2004

291615

FY 2004

352425

Q3 2005

EBITDAR MarginEBIT MarginNet Income Margin

Figures in %

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Now Everyone Can FlyBalance Sheet

Note: (*) For the 15 months ended June 30, 2002

Balance Sheet Balance Sheet (RM(RM’’ million)million)

899

60 35 46 29 17

-582

-105

150 161493

938

-436

Mar-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05

SHR Equity Net Debt

(*)

Consistently building shareholder value

Post IPO

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Now Everyone Can FlyCash Generating Machine

Note:(*) For the 15 months ended June 30, 2002

Cashflow from Operating Activities Cashflow from Operating Activities (RM(RM’’ million)million)

1529

157

-18

-3 -12-19

Mar-00 Mar-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 YTD-05(*)

“Normalized CFO” is RM157m. RM175m is paid for aircraft and fuel deposits. Therefore CFO is ‘superficially’ depressed at RM18m

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3. Cost Management 3. Cost Management

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Now Everyone Can FlyOperating Expenses - YTD

21.7101,158EBIT

25.8

4.1

120,305

(19,148)

EBITDA

- Depreciation & Amortisation

20.5

34.0

8.2

11.6

39.4

5.0

8.9

1.2

% Revenue

95,527Net Income

158,583

(38,278)

(53,935)

(183,826)

(23,467)

(41,511)

(5,419)

466,741

9 months - 2005

EBITDAR

- Cost of aircraft

− Staff Cost

− Fuel and Oil

− User & Station Charges

− Maintenance & Overhaul

− Others

Revenue

Operating Expenses (RM ‘000)

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Now Everyone Can FlyCost / ASK – what changed from last year to this year?

(US cents) Cost per Change ReasonsASK (%)

Staff cost 0.31 -29.7 Improved productivity

Maintenance & Overhaul 0.25 -44.1 Economies of Scale

Other costs 0.06 -71.3 Effective marketing

Cost of aircraft 0.22 -35.0 Higher aircraft utilization rate

Fuel and Oil 1.04 37.5 Fuel price spiking

User & Station Charges 0.13 56.5 More international routes

Depreciation & Amortization 0.11 81.3 Purchased some aircraft

Total Cost per ASK 2.11 -9.1%

Good

Bad

9months-2005 : 2.11 vs. 9months-2004 : 2.32 (9% improvement)

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Now Everyone Can Fly

Cost Management – more than just managing fuel price

2.90

2.50

2.08 2.13 2.12 2.11

3.40

2002 2003 2004 1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005 YTD0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Cost / ASKJet Kerosene ($/bbl)

Cost / ASK versus Singapore Jet KeroseneCost / ASK versus Singapore Jet Kerosene

We dealt with escalating fuel price & derive cost savings from other avenuesMalaysian Operations

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Now Everyone Can FlyFuel Hedge FY2006

WTI Crude Oil Capped Swap for FY2006- Fixed price of USD40/bbl but capped at US$52/bbl- Discount of US$ 12 / bbl for WTI above US$ 52 /bbl - 1HFY06 fully covered, 2HFY06 50% covered

WTI Call Option (Insurance cover) for FY2006- Strike price of US$ 70/bbl; 50% covered - Provides protection given market expectations of bullish oil prices

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Now Everyone Can Fly

Refining margin (Crack)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006

US$

/ b

bl

LT-average = $4.1

Rationale for crude oil instead of jet fuel

Rationale for using crude oil instead of jet fuel- Expect crack to dip after recent premium to crude price- Average crack past 5 years is close to US$4 as oppose to current US$15

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4. Airbus Updates4. Airbus Updates

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Now Everyone Can FlySecured 100 Airbus A320

Purchase agreement with Airbus concluded on 25th March 2005.(60 firm orders with options to purchase an additional 40)

Maiden delivery of two aircraft expected December 2005

Boeing 737-300 aircrafts will be phased out sequentially. AirAsia will eventually be a single aircraft airline of Airbus A320’s

Financing for the Airbus deal- 85% external financing and 15% internal sources- final stages of securing funding from financial institutions- financing term: 12 years financing, 10% down-payment- probably will fix interest rate for the whole financing duration

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Now Everyone Can FlyWhy buy 100 aircraft?

Indonesia was not part of the initial deal- Indonesia’s requirement alone is huge - AWAIR’s operations for the past three months demonstrates just that (strong demand and great load factor)

- many domestic routes that haven’t been served

Route Network Expanding Rapidly - many new routes in the pipeline (China, Philippines, Indo-China) - development of new secondary hubs requires more planes

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5. Outlook 5. Outlook

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Now Everyone Can FlyMalaysia – Going Strong

Shortage of planes restricts initial growth forecast

Sentiment for travel muted in January & early February due to Tsunami tragedy. Recovery in air travel during mid-February

Malaysia Airlines (MAS) implementing Fuel Surcharge on local Routes- Peninsular Malaysia : RM 7.50- East Malaysia : RM 15.00

Scope to raise fares or we may instill fuel surcharge

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Now Everyone Can FlyThailand – Turnaround Achieved

ThaiAirAsia reached break-even- despite Tsunami tragedy- despite poor sentiment to travel- despite operating with lower number of aircraft

Shortage of planes restricts initial growth forecast

Competition is rationalizing, average fares improving

All Thai LCCs will add a fuel surcharge - Local : THB 200- International : THB 400

Scope to raise fares or increase fuel surcharge

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Now Everyone Can FlyIndonesia – Jewel in the Crown

Start-up losses kept at a minimum

Tremendous support evident in exceptionally high load factor (proof that the model works in Indonesia)

Operating with two aircraft, will have six aircraft by end 2005

Application for name change to “Indonesia AirAsia” submitted; awaiting approval from the authority

Fragmented market, huge potential to take advantage of

Indonesian airline industry agreed to increase average fares

Scope to raise fares or we may instill fuel surcharge

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Now Everyone Can FlyAncillary Income Progress

Go Holiday – AirAsia’s holiday package option- customers increasingly comfortable with Go-Holiday - developing other opportunities (insurance; travel & health)

Advertising – paying homage to our strong brand- aircraft body advertising- web portal / banners / links- in-flight advertising opportunities

Snack Attack – AirAsia’s onboard food & drinks - rejuvenated menu and food selection

Charter flights- late night flights to various destinations

Car Rental (launch of Go Car – March 29)- referral commissions for every car rented via our website- effectively minimal cost to the company

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Now Everyone Can FlyProspectus profit estimate

Will miss the Initial Public Offering forecast

Aircraft availability culprits- average aircraft for FY2005 is 16.28 as oppose to planned 19.93

Thailand - lower number of aircraft in operation- tsunami disaster and civil unrest dent sentiment for travel

Indonesian start-up losses- not computed in IPO- initial losses minute compared to long-term potential

Fuel price higher than initial budget

Deferred rather than cancelled

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Now Everyone Can FlyExpansion Strategy

Increasing frequency to existing destinations- expand popular routes (KL-Bangkok, KL-Jakarta, Bangkok-Singapore)

Introduce new connectivity from existing airports- introducing Senai-Sibu, commencing 25 May

Use new airlines (Thailand & Indonesia) to capture local markets

Working to introduce new destinations in 2005- extended stages before commencing flights to 5 other Chinese

destinations (Naning, Chengdu, Kunming, Haikou, Guangzhou ) - venturing into new countries (Indo-China)

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Now Everyone Can FlyAirAsia - Concluding Remarks Well positioned for growth- excellent reputation and service level. - domestic operations in 3 countries (unlikely to be replicated)- diverse route network (51 routes to date)- strong business model (working exactly the way it should)

Southeast Asia’s only genuine LCC

Lowest cost operator – costs still coming down (other than fuel)

Competitors are finding the going tough- inability to expand capacity, add new routes, fleet expansion

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Now Everyone Can FlyThank You – Question & Answer