November 2011 It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact John Hattie University of Melbourne Optimism...
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November 2011
It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact
John HattieUniversity of Melbourne
Optimism in Challenging TimesNorthern regional conference - Lorne
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The dilemmas of democracy and school leadership.
Public Perceptions of Schools
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Democracy ...
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that point on,
the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship” Alexander Tytler (1834).
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The pendulum swings in educational leadership
Political Market Bureaucratic Social Pedagogical Impact
Pre 1980'sHigh at school
High at school
High at centre
High at centre
Low at centre
High at school
Late 80's Increased
Move to parents (but not realised)
Reduced at centre
Higher at schools
Move more to schools
High at school
1990-2000’s Dominant
Moving even more to parents
Even higher at schools
Moving to Centre
Move to schools
Moving to centre
2010 -- All in centreDominant by
parents All in schoolsEven more to Centre
All in schools
Strong at centre
School
Regions
Department
Centre
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The debates about SES
the tail, &
the gap
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Reading distribution
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Reading distribution
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Reading distribution (N=126,424)
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Victoria Reading: Up to Year 12 vs. Post Secondary parental education
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AUSTRALIA’S performance over time
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So to the Northern Region
There are 1574 schools in Victoria and 192 in Northern Region
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Reading
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Writing
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Numeracy
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GROWTH
But what about the growth
First – let us set some expectations
Synthesis of meta-analyses NAPLAN across Oz 2007+
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Concept of effect-sizes
Decreased EnhancedZero
0
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The typical influence on achievement
900+ meta-analysis
55,000 studies, and
240+ million students
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Effect on Achievement over time?
Decreased EnhancedZero
0
Typical Effect Size
1.0.40
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Distribution of effects
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Transformational
Instructional
Leadership…
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Transformational Instructional
Set the vision, school goals,
the expectations
Instructional support
Monitoring school activity
Buffering staff from external
demands
Ensures that staffing is fair
and equitable
Easily accessible to students
and staff
Secures a high degree of
autonomy for the staff
makes several formal classroom
observations each year
interprets test scores with teachers
Insists teachers collaborate the
teaching program across grades
insists teachers expect high
proportions of their students to do
well on achievement outcomes
insists and knows that class
atmosphere in this school is
generally very conducive to
learning for all students.
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Remarkable!
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Naplan
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Growth over time ALL = . 40Year 3-5 = .54 Year 5-7 = .35 Year 7-9
= .26
Reading Writing Spelling Grammar Numeracy
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Average (purple) and Growth (red)
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The scene is set
We can expect .4 per year
Or .8 over two years
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Effect sizes for background
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Growth comparisons
Males and female growth similar 0.05
LOTE higher than non-LOTE 0.13
Indigenous growth similar 0.04
Lower parental occupation higher growth than upper 0.11
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Where does WMR sit? - Mean status
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Relative to SES
EMR SMR NMR BSW GIP GMP LMR HME WMR
SES ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Relative to SES
EMR SMR NMR BSW GIP GMP LMR HME WMR
SES ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Growth 1 2 3 6 7 8 5 9 4
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Growth effects
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Be wary about status not progress
Gonski Report
Linking funding to outcomes
Reference schools are those where at least 80 per
cent of students are achieving above the national
minimum standard, for their year level, in both
reading and numeracy, across each of the three
years 2008 to 2010 (p. 157).
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A profile of NMR
Growth ES % students > .80Northern Victoria Northern Victoria
Reading 0.66 0.66 40% 43%
Writing 0.55 0.53 39% 41%
Numeracy 0.74 0.74 44% 47%
No. of schools with Reading, Writing, Numeracy > .80
Northern VictoriaNone 24% 25%One 36% 35%Two 28% 28%
Three 12% 12%
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Great vs. Low Growth Schools
Reading Writing Numeracy
Low 1 0.15 0.17 0.13
Low 2 0.20 0.15 0.25
Low 3 0.20 0.21 0.11
Low 4 0.27 0.45 0.07
Low 5 0.21 0.26 0.15
Reading Writing Numeracy
High 1 0.80 0.40 0.64
High 2 0.52 0.68 0.64
High 3 0.66 0.46 0.71
High 4 0.65 0.60 0.73
High 5 0.62 0.70 0.70
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The Low & High Growth Northern Schools
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Relation to SES
It is the case that there is a positive correlation between Achievement score and SFO
SFO and Achievement
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But no relation between SES and Growth
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Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes
Student February test June test Individual
Growth EffectsDavid 460 455 -0.28Eeofa 445 450 0.28Anne 425 432 0.39Barry 432 440 0.44Hemi 420 430 0.56Juliet 463 475 0.67Corrin 435 448 0.72Karmo 480 500 1.11Fred 450 475 1.39Ginnie 425 455 1.67
Average: 444 456Spread 20 22Ave spread Ave of 20 + 22 21
Effect size (456-444) / 21 0.60
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Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes
Student February test June test Individual
Growth EffectsDavid 460 455 -0.28Eeofa 445 450 0.28Anne 425 432 0.39Barry 432 440 0.44Hemi 420 430 0.56Juliet 463 475 0.67Corrin 435 448 0.72Karmo 480 500 1.11Fred 450 475 1.39Ginnie 425 455 1.67
Average: 444 456Spread 20 22Ave spread Ave of 20 + 22 21
Effect size (456-444) / 21 0.60
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A disposition to asking …
•How do I know this is working?
•How can I compare ‘this’ with ‘that’?
•What is the merit and worth of this influence on learning?
•What is the magnitude of the effect?
•What evidence would convince you that you are wrong?
•Where is the evidence that shows this is superior to other programs?
•Where have you seen this practice installed so that it produces effective results?
•Do I share a common conception of progress?
The Leader as Evaluator – Know thy
impact
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Expectations – Christine Rubie-Davies -- University of Auckland
Low expectation High expectation
Effects = -.03 to .20 Effects = .50 to 1.44
Expect low performance, see low performance, and this reinforces their views about low performance
Expect improvement, see the errors, and seek negative evidence to enact improvement
Intelligence is fixed Intelligence is malleable
Facilitators, constructivists, socializersDirector, active change agent, academic instructor
Great differences between students in class Lower differences between students in class
Some expected to improve All expected to improve
Differentiated activities in class Less differentiated activities in classSee low effort, class behaviour, in-class relationships, try hard
See confidence, motivation, persistence, and attitude to work
Males - performance orientation Females - mastery orientationMore in higher decile schools More in lower decile schools
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The Leader Mantra
1. Decide where & what impact one wants.
2. Collaborate with all to Know thy impact
3. Ensure there are the resources to know and have impact
4. Success when thy has above average impact
The Teacher Mantra
Analyse, Intervene, Evaluate
Levers of Change
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