Understanding vulnerability

How Does Pakistan view Vulnerability and why?

is closely linked to climate events where the risk is the probability of an event's occurrence that may enforce adaptation or permanent changes that people learn to live with. In low lying areas, for example, populations affected by floods will either adapt or resettle elsewhere.

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (1994) IPCC (2007), UEP (1999) and UNDP in its Adaptation Policy Framework all define vulnerability with only minor variations. The common threads are: exposure and susceptibility to a threat (hazardous material); ability to adjust to exposure or even to live with it; and an element of risk that involves taking actions based on expectations of occurrence (e.g. probability of drought).

In Pakistan vulnerability is generally viewed by the government and public as damage from any climate change induced event that poses serious threats to life, property and welfare. Vulnerability has a social and economic dimension and

Executive summaryThis brief examines key aspects of Pakistan's adaptation concerns, its vulnerabilities, and possible policy responses to address emerging challenges. It is aimed at policy makers who require appreciation of the core issues faced by Pakistan and who will negotiate/participate in discussions on adaptation at COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico.

Adaptation is essential for Pakistan. Steadily rising global temperatures, increasing climatic variability (temperature and precipitation) and greater occurrence of extreme events are all concerns for government policy (Task Force, 2010). First, adaptation is needed to ensure continued food security and steady returns on investments in development. Second, greater awareness is required amongst stakeholders on adaptation measures and their respective costs and benefits. Third, policy makers, NGOs public officials and civil society need awareness about changing risks (see Box 1, where Pakistan is now ranked at 16 of the 170 risk countries) and key negotiating points to address and highlight Pakistan's climate adaptation needs at the international level.

Adaptation

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Author:

Dr. Pervaiz AmirAdaptation Expert

November 2010

Policy Brief November 2010

Negotiating adaptation: key points?Delays will add to adaptation cost.?Recognize shifting South Asia focus

to adapt and maintain food security.?Understand long term challenges of

water resources, agriculture, health a n d i n f ra s t r u c t u r e t h ro u g h investment in research.

?Support International mechanism for loss and damage assessment in high vulnerability countries.

?Joint actions that encourage implementing REDD+ for sustainable forests.

?Endorse revenue sharing from new carbon emissions taxation on aviation and maritime.

?Support integration of social, economic and environment policies through technical assistance and capacity building.

?Highlight National Adaptation Centers as a core strategy.

The Himalaya and Karakorum mountains are vulnerable to A preliminary assessment by IUCN Pakistan (2009), suggests catastrophic glacier melt, Glacial Lake Outfall (GLOF) and that the funds required for agriculture adaptation amount to $3 massive movements in permafrost that caused the 2010 Hunza billion per annum. For the water sector $50 billion is needed Lake debacle. Droughts are recurring with greater frequency over 20 years, much of it for water security. Bringing in due to global warming (human induced) and sea rise is efficiency and catering to climate adaptation in its nine agro-impacting coastal regions forcing resettlement. Weather ecological zones and strengthening National Disaster pattern changes are signicant and visible impacting water, Management would cost $2.5 billion over a five year period. agriculture, health and forests across the country. New investments in forestry are proposed at $500 million per

year, and for coastal management at $200 million per year. Pakistan's definition of vulnerability is compatiable with those Pakistan would table a figure of between $3-4 billion as proposed by different international agencies. However, many of estimated by a recent LEAD Pakistan study (2010) initially, rising the hazards that influence this vulnerability are Pakistan progressively as it increases its capacity to use funds effectively.specific.

Para 14 of the draft outcome of the Tianjin, China meeting document “Agrees that the UNFCCC process is the main forum to address The draft outcome text for COP 16 says that “priority should be adaptation, and requests the secretariat to support the given to particularly vulnerable developing countries especially Adaptation Framework for Implementation and the the LDCs, SIDS, and other developing country Parties with Adaptation Committee, and to enhance engagement with coastal areas, tropical and mountainous glaciers and fragile external stakeholders in support of implementation; and ecosystems, as well as countries facing monsoon variability commits to increase the availability of resources”. This has and frequent intense summer heat waves and further taking been viewed with skepticism by developed countries that into account the needs of countries affected by drought, favour finding solutions within the existing framework and desertification, floods, and sea level and temperature rise in question the value of a new adaptation committee. Africa and Asia”.Pakistan's stance should focus on solutions that expedite the matter and carry broad consensus, and highlight South Asian concerns about any major delays caused by shifts in

Enhanced capacity should span government, relevant mechanism. Pakistan should also seek clarifications on the ministries, and provincial government that initiate action at core advantage of any new mechanism over the existing district level to support all vulnerable groups. This framework to move ahead on a fast track basis.decentralization would allow key projects to be launched without delay, keeping funds available for high priority activities and cutting edge ideas.

Adaptation issues under negotiationAttempts to incorporate Asian Concerns at 1. Creation of a Subsidiary body:

COP 16

Focusing financial resources

2

National Adaptation Center

Goal:

Objectives1.

2.

3.

4.5.

with sub-centers at provincial level and extensive linkages with field units in all priority hotspots based on vulnerability considerations.

Provide state of the art know how through applied field research, linkages with all concerned national, international bodies public, private and civil society to address development needs that help adapt to climate change vagaries in all conceivable hotspots.

Institution in the public domain to address climate change induced adaptation needs through applied research and a pragmatic focus.Synthesize latest International research and development technologies that address real life concerns across sectors with inter and intra linkages with all stakeholders of the country.Mobilize national and international resources under a single platform. In doing so foster linkages with development agencies to channel resources based on state of the art computer modeling developed through international linkages and by engaging Pakistani universities and relevant centers of excellence.Train human resources to meet needs at different levels.Provide leadership in climate change adaptation by preparing needed guidelines to institutions dealing with

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Adaptation at Cancun: targeting actions

2. Focus on vulnerability:

3. Loss and Damage assessment:

Policy recommendations: next stepsa. Responding with determination and a long term

perspective4. Adaptation Center (Regional and National):

b. Actions that push “no regret “options

1. Emphasise the multiple nature of climate change induced impacts and recognition of Pakistan's vulnerabilities.

2. The adaptation text is comprehensive; the focus should be on implementation, enhanced funding and capacity building mechanism (Chapter II). Pakistan should voice concern about mechanisms that may delay adaptation actions, citing its recent extreme events.

3. Ensure the proposed text, including that on monsoon vulnerability, recognizes the vulnerabilities of other countries beyond those specified in the negotiating text.

4. Highlight that delayed action on adaptation at grass roots will increase economic and social costs that can be avoided by timely decisions and pursuing “no regret” options.

5. Introduce the issue of outstanding debt and its servicing burden in developing countries like Pakistan that should be considered for possible cancellation to free up resources Pakistan has mentioned its for adaptation activities, in line with calls for climate debt vulnerability concerns related to monsoon-induced repayment by the more developed countries.extreme events, sandstorms, sea rise and surges in

temperature in Asia and Africa. It is equally concerned about issues emerging in other countries. Pakistan's position is that while not every area prone to climate change can be mentioned in the document, there is all the more reason to recognize country specific vulnerabilities. While remaining sensitive to the concerns of developing countries specially Small Island States that face existential threat, Pakistan should continue to seek inclusion of its concerns on vulnerability in the outcome on Adaptation.

Pakistan supports the proposal to formulate a Committee for loss assessment due to extreme events and climate changes. This Committee should allow for adequate representation of technical and financial expertise from both developed and developing countries.

The Urgent action is required to address water security and negotiating text highlights regional adaptation/ mitigation management, food security and health sector issues. centers. Pakistan seeks urgency in channeling adaptation Accelerated Glacier melt due to global warming is likely to funds to create and support national adaptation centers be the formidable future challenge (Planning Commission, (see box) that address adaptation needs pragmatically. It 2008) requiring investments in M&E and exploring will seek strong endorsement for such centers in all opportunities to harness Glacial Lake water releases in a critically vulnerable countries.regulated manner (water hydraulics). Rising summer temperatures and uncertain monsoon patterns also pose major challenges for adaptation. It is recommended that, in the short- to medium-term, that Pakistan regulates summer/ monsoon waters for winter use and adapts to water scarcity. This requires heavy infrastructure (dams, canals) and institutional reform investments. Pakistan is in the market for such business and financing.

Polices and plans that accelerate implementation of a focused set of programmes or projects with “no regret” options and in line with Pakistan's development vision 2030 should be a focal thrust of medium to long term policy agenda. It is recommended to highlight and seek support for a national/and regional adaptation center in line with current adaptation agenda stated in the negotiating text.

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climate change including relevant ministries, NDMA, GCISE, provincial EPA's, District governments and core departments.Serve as a Policy forum for free exchange of ideas and related public choice issues.

Autonomous Body led by an internationally recognized professional. The Center will be run by a board of governors comprising scientists, development experts, business people, farmers, doctors, union leaders, banks, womens' organizations etc.

Start-up Costs: $25 million with an annual budget of $5 million for activities at the national level and progressive decentralization to all relevant hotspots within two years.

6.

Structure:

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© www.freefoto.com

Financing these proposals will require both national and international mobilization of resources which should be It would be wise to engage policy makers and leaders to eagerly sought on a priority basis. enforce implementation of adaptation policies. Many good

polices are made but few are implemented. No action is not an option for climate adaptation. A better strategy is to

Recent experience with floods and long term caution by the encourage flexible decision making that synchronizes with scientific community “that more is likely to follow” requires Pakistan's overall development agenda. It is recommended that resource commitments and rebuild efforts factor in that political will be strengthened by demonstrating that the future likelihood of climate-induced events into project investing in adaptation can go hand in hand with design. In certain cases, like flood prone hotspots or glacier development and will result in stronger constituencies and lake outbursts an exit strategy with a focus on resettlement vote banks as a reward. Such consideration is essential and to higher ground would be an option worth considering. must be highlighted in public policy debate. The World Meteorological Organization and the Global Water Partnership (November 2010) drew attention to Pakistan has to make its case well known, if any doubts addressing drought with forward planning for possible about global warming and their likely impacts still remain after large scale outmigration and resettlement impacts. recent extreme events. While Pakistan should remain open to Pakistan needs to ensure it addresses such concerns in its the idea of a legally binding treaty limiting temperature adaptation strategy. The value of a national adaptation increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius, we will strongly support center in evaluating and guiding such policy actions would the urgent need to mobilize adequate, predictable and long be noteworthy. terms finance for adaptation to the tune of $3-4 billion together

with the 2 degree limit, and be even more vocal with financial support and capacity building to face the challenge already at

Pakistan should promote adaptation incentives and our doorstep. Climate Change requires a longer term opportunities for the corporate and business sector, such perspective with enhanced action that has to start now. Half of as investing in renewable resources, technology transfer adaptation is delivering the knowledge and options through and social engineering that stimulates growth and enables capacity building and technology transfer and the other half profitability within the system. The role of insurance and deals with the right investments that address the threat. weather proofing should be built into future investment Building on indigenous know-how, supplemented with state of plans, especially in sectors like agriculture and health. the art information, will ensure mobilization of means and Likewise, educate business communities that investing in resources to face the daunting task of living with climate change adaptation today will result in future pay-offs, and requires from a safe distance in natural harmony.sound financial planning and business sense.

e. The best policy is an implementation policy

c. Resettlement: the build vs. not build decisions

Finally,

d. Responding through the private sector

References

??UNDP Home Page internet. See A framework for climate adaption financing (2005).?UNFCCC 2010. Draft Negotiating text. FCC/AWGLCA/ 2010/14 Twelfth Session Tianjin 4-9 October, 2010.?UNFCCC 2010. National Economic, Environment and Development Study for Climate-Initial Summary Report. UNFCCC

website?World Bank 2010. South Asia: Climate Change Strategy Draft Jan: 27, 2009. South Asia Region. Washington D.C USA.?World Bank 2010. The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. Washington D.C USA.?World Bank Agriculture for development. Washington D.C USA. IPCC, 2007. Synthesis Report UNFCCC. United Nations?World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership. 2010. Consultative Meeting on the Integrated Drought

management Program. Geneva, Switzerland 15-16 November. Proceedings.

Task Force on Climate Change, 2010. Pakistan Planning Commission. Government of Pakistan.

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This document is produced by LEAD Pakistan at the request of the Government of Pakistan as a specific output of a project to support capacity-building for negotiators in Pakistan. This project is funded by the Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). CDKN is funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) for the benefit of developing countries. The views expressed and information contained in this document are not necessarily those of or endorsed by CDKN or DFID, which can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network's members, the UK Department for International Development (DFID), their advisors and the authors and distributors of this publication do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

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