Novel and disappearing climates - BC...
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Novel and disappearing climates The BC Parks system and the projected climates of the 21 st Century BC Parks Living Labs Inaugural Research Colloquium March 15 th , 2018 Colin Mahony, RPF Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia
Transcript of Novel and disappearing climates - BC...
Novel and disappearing climatesThe BC Parks system and the projected climates of the 21st Century
BC Parks Living Labs Inaugural Research ColloquiumMarch 15th, 2018
Colin Mahony, RPFDepartment of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia
Presenter
Presentation Notes
This talk is about the problem of novel climates: conditions emerging due to climate change that are not present in the climate types that we are familiar with. Novel climates are conditions that we don’t have any ecological data. so novel climates ultimately are about model extrapolation. OLD: This talk is about the problem of novel climates: conditions emerging due to climate change that are not present in the climate types that we are familiar with. The topic of novel climates touches on the question of how any given discipline such as forestry can shepherd its knowledge base through a continually changing climate. The problem of novel climates is relevant to ecology in general, but my approach to the problem has been strongly influenced by my background as a forester.
Where will future-adapted biota come from?Novel climates
Where will historically adapted biota go to?Disappearing climates
Novel and disappearing climates
1. Background info
2. Shifting climates of the BC Parks system
3. Single-park case studies
4. System-level results
5. Spatial data deliverables
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Seminal research
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(14), 5738–42.
Glo
bal A
nalo
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Novel Climates Disappearing Climates
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The seminal paper that did that was Williams et al 2007. for each cell, they measured analog distances relative to local interannual variability. The main pattern they found was that emergence of novel climates in the tropics. makes sense because low interannual variability relative to climate change, and the hottest areas of the planet. (no hotter equivalent of the lowland equatorial rainforest)
Background Info
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RCP8.5
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions by humans
Background Info
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RCP8.5
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions by humans
Background Info
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Temperature
Climate change 1980s-2080s
(RCP4.5)
Precipitation
Win
ter
Sum
mer
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Climate envelopes of North America and BC
BC Climates (1980s)
Historical North American Climates
(1980s)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Start: to visualize the emergence of novel climates, we can look at the climate envelope of british Columbia.
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Shifting climates of the BC Parks system (Winter)
BC Climates
BC Parks
2020s (RCP4.5)2050s (RCP4.5)2080s (RCP4.5)
Novel ClimatesDisappearingClimates
Historical North American Climates
(1980s)
BC Parks
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Start: to visualize the emergence of novel climates, we can look at the climate envelope of british Columbia.
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Shifting climates of the BC Parks system (Summer)
BC Parks 2080s (RCP4.5)
Historical North American Climates
(1980s)
BC Parks 1980s
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Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Moving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winter Takehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.
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Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park
2080s (RCP4.5)1980s
Historical North American Climates
(1980s)
Historical BC Climates (1980s)
Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park
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Novel Climates
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Case Study – Carmanah-Walbran Provincial Park
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Disappearing Climates
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
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Case Study – Ts’il-os Provincial Park
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Moving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winter Takehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.
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Case Study – Ts’il-os Provincial Park
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Moving towards warmer-drier in the summer, and warmer-wetter in the winter Takehome: novel climates aren’t limited to the warmest areas of the province. Precipitation creates more leading edges.
Case Study – Ts’il-osProvincial Park
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Novel Climates
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Case Study – Ts’il-osProvincial Park
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Disappearing Climates
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Analysis of the whole BC Parks system
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Novel climates Disappearing climatesRCP4.5 RCP4.5RCP8.5 RCP8.5
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Gap analysis – Disappearing climates
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Gap analysis – Disappearing climates
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Gap analysis – Disappearing climates
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Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
Spatial Data Deliverables
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Raster inputsExtent: BC Parks systemResolutions: 375m, 750m, and 1.5km• Digital Elevation Model• Seasonal ClimateBC data: 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5• BEC (version 10), Ecoregions, Parks, lakes
Raster outputsExtent: BC Parks systemResolution: 750m96 layers: • 4 metrics: Novel and disappearing climates, forward/backward velocity• 4 analog pools: single park, parks system, BC, North America• 3 time periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s• 2 emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 & RCP8.5
Presenter
Presentation Notes
All ecological models are based on observations. Statistical approaches like species distribution models are completely based on observations. Ecological models are only formally valid in the climatic conditions in which the training data were collected. Most of us wouldn’t make the mistake of training a model with data from these two ecosystems, and predicting it into this ecosystem. They are totally different climates. But climate change presents the possibility of making this same mistake in applying our models to future conditions. These observations were taken in specific climates. We generally wouldn’t make the mistake of applying a OLD: Before starting my PhD, I worked as a forester for about 10 years. One of the striking aspects of working as a forester is that essentially everything you know is tied in some way to climate This is a picture of three forests on the western, central, and eastern parts of vancouver island. The differences in climate are written in the vegetation. Each climate demands a different approach to forestry, small-patch harvesting here, clearcutting here, selection harvesting here. plant fir here, but not here. fertilization works here but not here (Hw doesn’t respond) and not here (moisture-limited, not nutrient-limited) Many of the hard lessons that have been learned in a century of forestry in british columbia originate in taking an approach that works in one climate, and applying it in another where it doesn’t work. .e.g. Douglas-fir on the west coast. A huge part of the project of forest science has been learning the limits to the transferability of ecological knowledge. when you enter a new climate type, some of your knowledge doesn’t apply, and caution is required.
