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Perspectives on Utah’s Econom

November/December 201

Department of Workforce Services

Fun, Beauty

& CultureSupportEconomic Growth

Extended MassLay Statistis

in UtahInsider News:

There's Mre HiringGing n Than YuMight Think

Demgraphis, theUnemplyed, and the

REcESSIoN:Wh gt hit hardest byunemplyment during

the reessin?

Prfling theUnemplyed

in Utah's Reessi

C e nsus F aC t o id s

P g . 14


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DWS-03-44-1111

Equal Opportunity Employer/Program

Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with

disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech

and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711.

Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162.

Trendlines

jobs.utah.gov

Utah Department of Workforce Services

Executive Director

Kristen Cox

Workforce Research and Analysis

Rick Little, Director

Kimberley Bartel, Editor

Contributors

Linda Marling Church

Mark Knold

Lecia Parks Langston

John Mathews

Jim Robson

Nate Talley

Designer

Pat Swenson

Trendlines

is published every other month by the

Utah Department o Workorce Services,

Workorce Research and Analysis. To read,

download, or print this publication (ree),

see our Internet site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi.

Click on “Publications” then select the one

you want rom the list.

To obtain additional printed copies or to

subscribe to Trendlines contact:

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Attn: WRA

140 East 300 South

Salt Lake City, UT 84111

Telephone: (801) 526-9462

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The Workorce Research and Analysis

Division generates accurate, timely, and

understandable data and analyses to

provide knowledge o ever-changing

workorce environments that support

sound planning and

decision-making.



pg. 14

pg. 6

jb..v/w t

4Surveying the Recession

Upon Utah's CountiesWasatch Front and Statewide

6Demographics, the Unemployed, and

the RecessionWhat's Happening

8 Extended Mass Layoff Statistics in Utah Economic Insight

10

Did the Recession Drive People

to Higher Education?National News

12There's A lot More Hiring Going

on Than You Might Think Insider News

14 Census Factoids For Your Inormation

16

Unemployment Insurance Usage

During the RecessionThe Outlook

20 Operating Engineers: Moving the EarthOccupations

22Fun, Beauty & Culture

Support Economic GrowthThe Outskirts

25

Is Utah's Unemployment InsuranceTrust Fund Solvent?

DWS News

26 Construction Industry Highlight

27 Just the Facts... Rate Update

contents

Proling the

Unemployed inUtah's Recession

Per spective s on Ut ah’ s Eco no m y

November /December 2011

Department of Work forceSe r vices

Fun,Beau t y & CultureSuppor t EconomicGro w th

E x tended MassLayo Statistic s

in U ta h

Insider News: There's More Hiring Going on T han YouMig h t T hink

Demograp hic s, t he Unemplo yed, and t he

R ECESSION: W ho go t hit hardes t b y

unemplo ymen t during the rec ession?

Profling t he Unemplo yed in U ta h's R ec ession

C ENSUS FAC T OIDS

P g . 14



The Great Recession has taken its toll upon Utah’seconomy. Job counts are rebounding across the statebut still remain below their peak level prior to the

recession. Utah is starting to add jobs back to its rolls, withmany counties seeing employment increasing. But severalcounties are noted as having multiple years of employmentdeclines that have not yet reversed themselves.

These are mostly rural counties and include Box Elder,Carbon, Emery, Iron, Juab, Morgan, Piute, Rich, Sanpete,Washington, and Weber. Some of these counties look liketheir employment levels have bottomed out—they just

haven’t started to rebound yet. Others look like they arestill trending downward.

These less fortunate counties include Box Elder, Iron, Juab,Piute, Rich, and Sanpete counties. Box Elder has beenimpacted by manufacturing losses, including the closure of La-Z Boy and the cutbacks at ATK. Box Elder employmentis down 16 percent since 2008. Carbon County’s fortunesare generally tied to the coal mining industry, and this iswhere the slide lies. It is not drastic—down 2 percent—butit is enough to note.

Juab County’s employment is down 6 percent since2008, with most of it being traced to construction andhealthcare. Piute is such a small county that it doesn’t takemuch for its numbers to fall. Yet employment is down 18percent since 2008, and this is traced to trucking and retailtrade.

Rich County is a tourism-dependent county, relying uponsummertime tourism and building expansion of cabinsand summer homes. Both of these were impacted by therecession, so construction and leisure and hospitalitydeclines account for Rich County’s 17-percent job losssince 2008.

One of the larger rural economies in decline is Sanpete

County. Down 11 percent since 2008, its woes are tracedto manufacturing and construction.

wc f w | b , cf c

Job counts are rebounding but

still remain below peak level.

Surveyingthe

Recession

UponUtah’s

Counties


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nov-dec-trendlines 5/28t jb..v/w

Box Elder County

Manufacturing

down 16%

Carbon CountyCoal mining

down 2%

Juab County

Construction/

healthcare

down 6%

Piute County

Trucking/retail

trade down 18%

Rich County

Construction/

leisure/hospitality

down 17%

Sanpete CountyManufacturing/

construction

down 11%



w' pp | b c p , c

T

he recent recession was not an equal opportunity“un-employer.” Certain demographic groups elt

the economic pain worse than others. The recentBureau o Labor Statistics release o its Geographic Profleo Employment and Unemployment provides some insightsto the demographics o Utah’s unemployed.

How low can you go?Comparing unemployment statistics or 2007 and 2010,contrasts the year with the lowest unemployment rateso the recent business cycle to the year with the highestrates. In 2007, Utah’s unemployment rate measured a

mere 2.6 percent—the lowest joblessness o the postWWII era. In act, or many employers the rate was too

low. Labor seemed scarce and, ollowing those old lawso supply and demand, wages took a decided hike.

Almost every demographic group managed a lowunemployment rate in 2007. Women, men, whites,Latinos, and age groups older than 24 all showed joblessshares near (or below) 3 percent. Only young people—those 24 years and younger—displayed signicant levelso unemployment. Teenagers were worst o with ajobless rate o 11 percent.

Demographics, the Unemployed, and the

Recession:

Who got hit hardest

by unemployment during the recession?Some felt the painworse than others.


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Quick ChangeFast orward three years. By 2010,Utah’s annual unemployment ratehad basically tripled to reach 8.2

percent. Following the typical pattern,men (who dominate employment inindustries most aected by recession)experienced worse joblessness thandid women. In 2007, women showed ahigher unemployment rate than men.In 2010, joblessness or Utah menmeasured 9.5 percent, while women’srate had increased to just 6.6 percent.The Hispanic/Latino labor orce alsoelt the pangs o unemployment to agreater degree than did whites. Latinolabor orce saw their joblessness morethan quadruple rom 3.1 percent to12.6 percent in just three years.

Statistically, the higher the age group,the lower the level o unemployment.That relationship generally holdstrue in boom and bust. However,during the recession, while teenagers’unemployment rate doubled, therate or 55-64 year-olds almosttripled. Nevertheless, unemploymentor teenagers measured 21 percentcompared to 5 percent or the 55-64year-olds.

Fair ShareIn 2007, women and men maintainedequal shares o the number o unemployed persons. However, by2010, men made up 65 percent o thejobless and women’s share dropped to35 percent. Also, as more older workerselt the sting o “no job” during thedownturn, 16-19 year-olds saw theirshare o the unemployed drop rom20 to 13 percent. Those aged 25-34accounted or the largest proportion

(about one-ourth) during both goodtimes and bad. The recession hitworkers 35-44 particularly hard. Theirshare o unemployed workers increasedrom 14 percent in 2007 to 18 percentin 2011.

For more inormation about thedemographics o Utah’s unemployed, seehttp://www.bls.gov/gps/

Utah Share of Unemployment

by Demographic Group

Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 60% 70% 80% 90%50% 100%

NA

Women

Men

White

Hispanic

16-19 years

20-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65 and older

2007

2010

Total

Women

Men

White

Hispanic

16-19 years

20-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65 and older

2007

2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Utah Unemployment Ratesby Demographic Group



cc | b , c

Employee layos are an unortunatereality o any ree market economy.Even in healthy economic climates,

some rms exit the market and no longerneed the labor they once employed.During a recession, layos can be moreprevalent as a decrease in the demandor goods and services spur someestablishments to reduce their workorce.The state o Utah, in cooperation with theBureau o Labor Statistics, conducts theMass Layo Statistics (MLS) program toidentiy and characterize signicant jobcutback events using data rom the stateunemployment insurance database.

Unemployment insurance plays a rolein identiying layos in that when aworker is laid o, that worker will usuallyqualiy or unemployment insurancebenets. When the worker les or thesebenets, their claim inormation isstored and the MLS program is able tocompile it with other claims led against

the same employer. When these claimssum to more than 50 over a consecutive5-week period, and the laid-o workersare separated rom their jobs or morethan 30 days, the respective employeris considered to have had an extendedmass layo.

While layos and unemployment insur-ance claims are an economic phenom-

enon common to most labor markets,extended mass layos are not. In act,Utah’s mass layo counts are so ewthat to aggregate and analyze them on amonthly, quarterly or even annual basisyields little insight. As such, the analysisherein sums mass layos and the asso-ciated initial unemployment insuranceclaims by industry, rom the beginningo the most recent recession (the ourthquarter o 2007) to the secondquarter o 2011. Note that theevent and claim counts in thetable do not sum to the totalbecause the total includesdata that must be sup-pressed at an industry level.Counts are suppressedwhen they are so small thatthe identity o the employermay be deduced. Also, keepin mind that the 29,183 totalinitial unemployment insur-ance claims depicted in the ta-

ble only represent those claimsthat corresponded to a masslayo. By contrast, there werenearly 21,000 initial claimsled in January o 2009 alone.

The most telling inormationin the table belongs to theconstruction and manuacturingindustries. Together, these industries

Extended

Mass Layoff Statistics in Utah


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accounted or almost 60 percent o the extendedmass layos and almost 70 percent o the relatedunemployment insurance claims during the periodstudied. These statistics coincide with the signicantjob losses that the two industries experienced duringthe recession.

Beyond the construction and manuacturing industries,mass layos in Utah were relatively ew, even during theslumping economic environment that was analyzed. Toview mass layo statistic data under a broader scope, goto www.bls.govb/mls to see how state data is combined toproduce national mass layo estimates.

Extended Mass Layoffs in Utah:4th Quarter 2007 – 2nd Quarter 2011

The construction and

manufacturing industries

accounted for almost 60 percent

of the extended mass layoffs.

Industry Layoff Events Initial Claims

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 5 505

Construction 51 8,414

Manufacturing 49 12,214

Retail Trade 7 789

Transportation and Warehousing 4 372

Administrative and Waste Services 11 1,950

Health Care and Social Assistance 7 927

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 13 1,852

Accommodation and Food Services 12 1,129

Total* 169 29,183



w | b j w, c

In recessionary times individuals oten see the waytoward economic security down a path o moretraining. With the recent perception o not being

able to secure a better lie, workers look at their options.Continued job search in a highly competitive job marketis one option. But i the job seeker perceives their currentjob has limited upward mobility and stagnant earnings,another option is the opportunity provided by gettingmore training and/or a degree which may lead to betterpotential or the good lie.

We oten hear that when the economy “tanks” peoplego back to school. New entrants in the world o workmay have had higher education as a goal all along. Also,current workers losing their jobs or having their hourscurtailed also see the light and may decide to pursuemore training. These individuals perceive that theiropportunities are limited and see more training as aviable option.

A paradox presents itsel. How do current marginallyemployed or unemployed persons aord to go back toschool i they have no job and thus no way o payingor more education? One answer is through educationalloans, grants, or scholarships. Funding may also includethe use o savings and/or help rom amily. Regardless o the source o resources or education the desire or moreeducation is still there. Financing education is a veryimportant topic but the real thrust o this article is tolook at the relationship o economic activity, or the lacko it, and the desire o workers to seek more education.

What’s the evidence that recessions drive people to seekmore training? One important indicator is to look at

Did the Recession Drive People to

Education?Higher


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enrollment in our post-secondary education institutions.Enrollment numbers rom the Utah System o HigherEducation portrayed in the graph show average yearlyull-time equivalent enrollment at Utah’s public collegesand universities.*

In the graph are counts o enrollment or vocational,lower division, upper division, basic graduate, advancedgraduate, and the total. The time periods cover the schoolyears 2001-2002 through 2009-2010. Enrollment early in

the decade show what happened during the “DotCom”recession. Student counts peaked in 2003-2004 schoolyear with 105,500 persons enrolled at the colleges anduniversities. Enrollments dropped to the 98,800 level inthe 2006-2007 school year. These mid-decade years wereUtah’s boom period where the perception in the marketwas that jobs were plentiul and workers didn’t needmore training to get a job. Unemployment rates werenear-record lows as the economy was rapidly expanding.

Then came the Great Recession, beginning in Decembero 2007. As the recession deepened through 2008,enrollments increased rom 98,800 to 103,600 (2008-2009 school year). Enrollment increased by 1.1 percent

during the 2007-2008 school year to 3.7 percent theollowing year (2008-2009) then dramatically rose by10.1 percent by the 2009-2010 school year. In actualnumbers, enrollments increased rom 99,900 to 114,100.In the last two years, thousands o students enrolledwith the largest increase being or those lower division(entering) students. The overall increase or all levelso education was 10.1 percent but enrollment by lowerdivision students jumped by 14.4 percent. All levels o educational (vocational, lower division, etc.) enrollment

increased between 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. Do manyindividuals go back to school when the economy tanks?The numbers, at least in this cursory look, tend tosupport that notion. Increases in enrollment can’t allbe attributed to economic orces. Utah’s demographicand societal orces are at play here also. Notable is theyounger age o its population and the emphasis placedon education in Utah. These orces aside, it does appearthat a depressed economy does have a signicant eecton enrollment.

*University o Utah, Utah State University, Weber StateUniversity, Southern Utah University, Snow College, DixieState College, Utah State University – College o EasternUtah, Utah Valley University, and Salt Lake Community College. Not included is data rom private colleges and universities.

Utah Higher EduationEnrollments

by class Standing

Shool Years

2001-2002 to 2009-2010

Source: Utah System o Higher Education (USHE), Data Book 2011, Tab C - Enrollments.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2 0 0 1 - 0 2

2 0 0 2 - 0 3

2 0 0 3 - 0 4

2 0 0 4 - 0 5

2 0 0 5 - 0 6

2 0 0 6 - 0 7

2 0 0 7 - 0 8

2 0 0 8 - 0 9

2 0 0 9 - 1 0

Vocational

Lower Division

Upper Division

Basic Graduate

AdvancedGraduate

Total

Inormation on the

Utah System o Higher

Education can be ound at:

http://www.higheredutah.org/

about/research-data/

http://www.higheredutah.org/about/research-data/





w | b c p , c

Going on

I

n recent years, economists and data watchers have been able toincorporate a number o new data sources to their arsenal o economic

indicators. One o the most exciting additions, in my opinion, is theLocal Employment Dynamics (LED) inormation. LED data is a melding o available census, survey, and administrative records which provides newinsights on the economy and, in particular, the labor market.

It is fuid out there. . .I’ve been in this business a long time, and the “new hire” data producedby the LED program has truly opened my eyes to the fuidity o the labormarket. A “hire” in this case simply represents a person on a company’spayroll in the current quarter that wasn’t on the payroll in the previousquarter. Typically, we analyze only the net changes—are there more orewer jobs now than in a previous time period? But obviously, individualsare constantly leaving jobs, nding jobs, and entering the labor market.

The “new hire” data makes this act abundantly clear.

Lots o hiring going onGuess how many people were hired during the worst quarter o the “GreatRecession” in Utah? Go ahead and take a guess. Well, you most likelyguesstimated low. Almost 127,000 Utah workers ound a new job in therst quarter o 2010. In other words, almost 12 percent o the jobs trackedby the LED system were held by a “new hire.” And, that’s the worst quarter.These gures appear even more remarkable over time. New hires averagedmore than 200,000 per quarter between 2007 and 2010.

There’s a lot More

Than You Might ThinkHiring



Seasonal PatternsThere is a very seasonal pattern to newhires. The rst quarter o a year (January

to March) shows the lowest hiring levelso the year, while the third quarter (Julyto September) always shows the highestannual new hires (although secondquarter isn’t ar behind). On the otherhand, despite increased retail hiring orthe holiday season, the nal quarterranks third in terms o new hires.

Where’s the trend?A quick and dirty way to track the trendsin the new hire data is to use a our-quarter moving average. As you can see

in the accompanying chart, new hiresollow the same trajectory as the labormarket in general. Hires surged in 2005and 2006, peaked in 2007, plummetedin 2008, bottomed out in 2009, and arenow on the uptick.

Other Stu Young adults are most likely to benew hires (no surprise to parents with

children that age). Individuals between19 and 24 account or roughly 30percent o new hires. And that sharehasn’t changed much over time. Slightly

older adults—24 to 35—typically areresponsible or one-ourth o new hires.However, this age group’s share o hireshas slowly been increasing. In the lasttwo years, they have made up closer to27 percent o new hires. Older adultsare ar less likely to be taking up newemployment. Those between the ageso 55 and 64 typically account or onlyabout 4 percent o new hires. But, theirshare o new hires has also increasedsomewhat in the past several years (to5 percent)—undoubtedly a secondary

result o the recession.

Finally, new hires are slightly morelikely to be male (about 55 percent)than emale. That’s not signicantlydierent rom their share o the labororce. And, not surprisingly, most newhires are in the largest counties—SaltLake, Utah, Weber, and Davis. Together,they steadily generate 70 percent o newhires.

For more information and data from the LED program:

http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwiapp.html

Utah New Hires

S

o u r c e : U . S .

C e n s u s B u r e a u ; L o c a l E m p l o y m e n t D y n a m i c s .

Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau o Economic Research.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

New Hires

Four-Quarter Moving Average



f f

Father’s day16,010 - The number o hardware stores(as o 2008), a place to buy hammers,

wrenches, screwdrivers and other items

high on the list o Father’s Day gits.

Additionally, there were 7,009 homecenters across the country in 2008.

Source: County Business Patterns http://

www.census.gov/econ/cbp/

The U.S. Census Bureau published Facts for Features; collections o statisticsrom the Census Bureau’s demographic and economic subject areas

intended to commemorate anniversaries or observances. Following is aselection o acts published in 2011.

st. PatriCk’s day36.9 million - Number o U.S. residents

who claimed Irish ancestry in 2009. This

number was more than eight times the

population o Ireland itsel (4.5 million). Ir

was the nation’s second most requently

reported ancestry, trailing only German.

Sources: 2009 American Community

Survey http://actnder.census.gov/servle

DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS

submenuId=datasets_2&_lang=en and

Ireland Central Statistics Ofce http://www

cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/

population/current/popmig.pd

the Fourth oF July2.5 million - In July 1776, the

estimated number o people living

in the newly independent nation.

Source: Historical Statistics o

the United States: Colonial Times to 1970

http://www.census.gov/prod/

www/abs/statab.html

311.7 million - The nation’s estimatedpopulation on this July Fourth. Source:

Population clock http://www.census.gov/

main/www/popclock.html

Women’s historymonth111,000 - Number o emale

police ofcers across the country

in 2009. In addition, there were

about 9,700 women reghters,338,000 lawyers, 294,000

physicians and surgeons, and

38,000 pilots. (Note: Number o

pilots pertains to 2008.) Source:

Statistical Abstract o the United

States: 2011, Tables 615 and

1082 http://www.census.gov/

compendia/statab/

Census

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submenuId=datasets_2&_lang=en



http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/population/current/popmig.pdf




http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab.html



http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html



http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/










halloWeen41 million - The estimated

number o potential trick-or-

treaters in 2010 — children

5 to 14 — across the United

States. O course, many other

children — older than 14 and

younger than 5 — also go trick-

or-treating. Source: U.S. Census

Bureau, 2010 Census, http://

actnder2.census.gov/

aces/nav/js/pages/index.

xhtml

116.7 million - Number

o occupied housing units

across the nation in 2010 — all

potential stops or trick-or-

treaters. Source: U.S. Census

Bureau, 2010 Census, http://

actnder2.census.gov/aces/nav/js/

pages/index.xhtml

hisPaniC heritage month:sePt 15 – oCt 1550.5 million - The Hispanic population o the United

States as o April 1, 2010, making people o Hispanic

origin the nation’s largest ethnic or race minority.

Hispanics constituted 16.3 percent o the nation’s

total population. In addition, there are 3.7 millionresidents o Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory.

Source: American FactFinder:

United States DP-1 http://

actnder2.census.gov and

http://www.census.gov/

prod/cen2010/bries/

c2010br-04.pd

CinCo de mayo25.6 - Median age

o people in the

United States o Mexican descent.

This compared with 36.8 years or

the population as a whole. Source: 2009

American Community

Survey 1-Year Estimates,

Selected Population Prole

in the United States: Mexicanhttp://actnder.census.

gov

BaCk to sChool$7.4 billion - The amount o money spent at amily clothing stores

in August 2010. Only in November and December were salessignicantly higher. Similarly, sales at bookstores in August 2010

totaled $2.2 billion, an amount approached in 2010 only by sales in

January. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade and Food

Services http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

laBor day

$47,127 and $36,278 - The 2009 real median earnings or male andemale ull-time, year-round workers, respectively. Source: Income,

Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009

http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p60-238.pd

FaCtoids

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml










http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf



http://factfinder.census.gov/








| b , cf c

Not all geographic areas in Utah are thesame. Urban and rural distinctionsabound and industry makeup plays a

part. Thereore, dierent usage patterns arisein lings or unemployment insurance claimsDierent parts o the state show dierent levelo usage, and each area has its own distinctexplanation.

For example, a high amount o unemployment

insurance activity suraces in eastern Utahspecically Uintah County. This is an economyheavily dependent on natural gas productionThere was a period covering most o 2009 inwhich energy prices collapsed and employmenlevels ell o noticeably. As a result, this countyexperienced a pocket o high unemploymeninsurance usage (this includes Roosevelt inDuchesne County or the same reason).

Another area with high usage is WashingtonCounty in the state’s southwest cornerThis area was hit hard by the housing pricebubble. Its sunbelt eatures and proximity toLas Vegas drove in-migration and resultanhousing speculation. The end result was asharply collapsing construction sector andan unprecedented three-year period o jobloss. Claims counts soared in this region, anevent that is much out o the ordinary orthis normally high-fying economy. Theseevents also impacted Iron County, WashingtonCounty’s neighbor to the north.

Grand County—the Moab area—is anothethat stands out with high unemploymeninsurance usage. However, this may not be as

noticeably tied to a signicant deterioration othe local economy as seen in Washington andUintah counties. Instead, it looks like normausage, although the recession probably addedsome infuence. Moab is an economy heavilydependent upon tourism, particularly nonwinter tourism. As such, Grand County exhibita seasonal pattern o high unemploymeninsurance usage. Tourism-dependent workerwork long enough to maintain unemploymeninsurance eligibility, then use this system to

Unemployment Insurance Usage

During the

RecessionNOTE: The Utah Department o

Workorce Services administers

Utah’s unemployment insurance

program. All claimant activity is recorded and stored by this

department. Individual records

can be aggregated to produce

cumulative statistical profles o

those fling or unemployment.

Claimants were quantifed across

the period October 2008 through

November 2010 statewide.

This is a representative window

in which the immediate and

lingering consequences o the

Great Recession had their

strongest impact upon the

unemployment insurance system.



A high amount o unemploymentinsurance activity

suraces in easternUtah, specically UintahCounty.

Source: Utah Department o Workorce Services.

White space assumes no initial claims

Census Tracts

Initial Claim Counts

2,001 - 3,000

1,001 - 2,000

601 - 1,000

301 - 600

13 - 300

The WashingtonCounty area was hithard by the housingprice bubble.

Utah Initial UnemploymentClaims by Census Tract

October 2008—November 2010



c. | b , cf c

bridge the winter down time. Nearly47 percent o all claimants workedin the tourism industry (whereasthe statewide average is only 7

percent). Because o this, it is dicultto separate the “normal” usage o the system rom that caused by therecession.

The same usage and diculty inassessment can also be attributed tothe Summit County area, up and overthe mountains east o Salt Lake City.This county is the home to threemajor ski resorts. It is both a tourism-dependent economy and a seasonalone. Thereore, it also has seasonalhigh usage, and again, it is dicultto separate the normal amount romany recession-generated usage. Fortypercent o claimants come romtourism.

Claims counts throughout theremainder o the state, including themetropolitan areas, largely ollowpopulation density proles.

Salt Lake is the state’s most populouscounty. Thereore it should, and does,have the most initial unemployment

claims. Mapping county initialunemployment claims by censustracts does show patterns o high andlow usage across the metropolitanarea. There seems to be a patterno low usage in the higher-incomeeastern tracts, and higher usagethroughout the rest o the valley.

The lowest quantity o claims is inthe census tracts running along theoothills o the Wasatch Mountainsbordering the valley’s east side,including the avenues east o 1300

East between I-80 (south) and theUniversity o Utah (north). The resto the valley experienced higherclaim counts, with most areas aroundSouth Salt Lake City southwardtoward Murray, neighborhoods inWest Valley City, Kearns, Magna, andthe ar southwest corner o the valley.

Evaluating the heavy usage in thesouthwest corner o the valley

presents something o a challenge.It is probably explained by theassumption that young workershave higher vulnerability to layos,

as businesses look to retain moreexperienced and tenured workers.Younger workers are cheaper toreplace.

As the decade o the 2000s emerged,new amilies and workers lookedor available land and housing. Formany, their jobs are in Salt LakeCounty but the workers themselveslocated urther into the county’sringes looking or lower housingcosts. The real estate people label this

“drive till you qualiy.” This produced

new communities where beore therewas only open land. This not onlyimpacted southern Salt Lake Countyin its reach, but also northern UtahCounty and eastern Tooele County

(to the west).

These are areas now populated bynew homes and in many cases,young workers. These areas, on amap, also jump out with the mostinitial unemployment insurancelers. Logic ollows that i youngworkers are the ones vulnerable tolayos, then claims should be highin these areas.

That theory I believe holds weight.But unortunately there is anotheractor playing out beside this, and itprobably produces an overstatement

o the amount o claims in theseareas.

These census tracts are 2000 Censustracts, built upon 2000 populationlevels. Population has growndisproportionately in all o the justmentioned areas since then. Newcensus tracts rom the 2010 Censusare now available (but not quantiedas such or this article). In these areas,where in 2000 there may have beenone census tract there are now asmany as six new tracts.

The large tract in Salt Lake County’ssouthwest corner in the 2000 Censusis now three separate tracts in the2010 Census. The most dramaticchange may be the 2000 Censustract that surrounds the northwestcorner o Utah Lake in Utah County(making up parts o Lehi and the newtown o Saratoga Springs). That onetract is now divided into six tractsin the 2010 Census. Its neighboringtract to the west surrounding the

city o Eagle Mountain is now vetracts in the 2010 Census. The large2000 Census tract in eastern TooeleCounty is now our separate tracts inthe 2010 Census.

There is no doubt that the largenumber o claims in these areas are aunction o the initial unemploymentinsurance claimants being distributedby the 2000 Census boundaries,not 2010 boundaries. As theunemployment insurance data wasquantied and located in census

tracts available at the time—2000Census tracts—this data cannot beredistributed.

Still, knowing the nature o thoseareas and the amount o youngworkers who inhabit them, it ishypothesized that they would stillbe areas o high claims distributioneven i quantied to 2010 Censusboundaries.

The southwest corner o

the Salt Lake Valley also

jumps out with the most

initial unemployment

insurance lers. I young

workers are the ones

vulnerable to layofs, then

claims should be high in

these areas.



White space assumes no initial claims

Provo

Orem

Draper

WestJordan

Salt Lake City

Bountiful

Lehi

Census Tracts

Initial Claim Counts

2,001 - 3,000

1,001 - 2,000

601 - 1,000

301 - 600

13 - 300


Utah Initial UnemploymentClaims by Census Tract

October 2008—November 2010Close up of Wasatch Front



Have you ever watched kids

playing in a sandbox?

Digging in the sand, moving

it rom place to place, building

something and then tearing it

down. Keeps them occupied or

long periods o time.

Otentimes, they have earth moving equipment,tractors, and such to help them antasize about changingthe ace o the planet. Perhaps this is where it starts orsome operating engineers, those olks who make a livingoperating the equipment that clears and grades the landto prepare or construction o roads, buildings, bridges,runways, dams, and levees, to name a ew.

Since one cannot list on a resume the time spent

playing in a sandbox, how does one make the earthmoving antasy a reality? Operating engineers aretrained through ormal apprenticeships, on-the-jobtraining, paid training programs, or a combination o these. An apprenticeship consists o at least three years,or 6,000 hours, o paid on-the-job experience togetherwith 144 hours o classroom instruction each year.Since apprentices learn to operate a wide variety o equipment, they may have better job opportunities. Oneresource or apprenticeship programs is administered bythe International Union o Operating Engineers, which

reports over 400,000 members, 1,000 instructors andhundreds o acilities across North America.

Once the training has taken place, the real work begins.Operators run the machinery in all types o weatherconditions and at all hours, oten inremote locations. In addition, theymust have a working knowledge o

the machinery when it comes timeor repairs. It is part o their jobdescription to keep the job progressingand i that means time out or repairs,so be it. The job setting is oten noisy,dusty, greasy, muddy, and can bedangerous. It is important to ollowsaety guidelines when perormingthis job.

With the introduction o glob-al positioning system (GPS)technology, which helps

with grading and levelingactivities, and computer-ized controls and im-proved hydraulics, theindustry is more tech-nologically advancedthan in past years. Theseimprovements require ur-ther training and a basic un-derstanding o electronics andhydraulics.

ccp | b cc, c

M o v i n g t

h e O p e r a t i n g E n g i

n e e r s :



About 63 percent o construction equipment operatorswork in the construction industry. Many equipmentoperators work in heavy and civil engineering construction,building highways, bridges, or railroads. About 16percent o construction equipment operators work inlocal government. Others—mostly grader, bulldozer, and

scraper operators—work in mining. Some also work ormanuacturing or utility companies. About 3 percent o construction equipment operators are sel-employed.

This occupation is expected to experience slower thanaverage growth, nevertheless, there should be a highvolume o annual job openings. Business expansion,

rather than the need or replacements, will provide themajority o job openings in the coming decade. In theshort term, employment may be limited but shouldimprove in concert with the economy.

For those o us who have not orgotten our sandbox

days, a ormer encing contractor in Las Vegas hasopened a business called Dig This, where, or a ee,visitors can operate a wide variety o constructionequipment in a ive-acre theme park. According toAARP magazine, about hal the visitors to Dig Thisare women, proo that gender is no barrier to sandboxdreams o becoming operating engineers.

UTAH Occupational Wages—Published June 2011(data from May 2010) for Operating Engineers and Other

Construction Equipment Operators

Area NameHourly

InexperiencedHourly Median

Annual

InexperiencedAnnual Median Training Level

Box Elder and Rich $15.61 $18.43 $32,460 $38,330Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Central $14.33 $17.48 $29,810 $36,360 Moderate-term OJT (1-12months)

Eastern $16.38 $19.41 $34,060 $40,370Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Logan MSA $14.56 $17.04 $30,290 $35,430Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Ogden-Clearfeld MSA $15.95 $20.86 $33,180 $43,390Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Provo-Orem MSA $13.34 $18.53 $27,740 $38,540Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Salt Lake City MSA $16.28 $20.16 $33,870 $41,930Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Southwest $11.07 $19.36 $23,020 $40,280Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

St.George MSA $15.87 $19.68 $33,010 $40,920Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

United States -- $19.12 -- $39,770Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

Utah $15.03 $19.60 $31,250 $40,760Moderate-term OJT (1-12

months)

• http://www.iuoe.org

• www.bls.gov

• Associated General Contractorso America

• www.utah.gov

For more information:



| b j b, c

The leisure and hospitalityindustry provides a signicantnumber o jobs, wages, and

economic activity within Utah.Not only do Utahns enjoy the greatbeauty, diversity, and year round

recreation, travel, and tourismactivities within the state, but peoplefock here rom all parts o the globe.The visitors to our ski resorts, nationaland state parks, historical sites, andestivals bring with them the incomethat sustains the economic vitality o many communities across the state.

Ten counties in Utah derivemore than 15 percent o theirnonarm jobs rom the leisure andhospitality industry (see Chart).For these counties, and others in

the nonmetropolitan parts o thestate, recreation, travel, and tourismactivities are main economic drivers.

The great recession began ociallyin the U. S. in December 2007 andlasted through June 2009, at whichpoint production o goods andservices began to grow once again.December 2007 coincides with peaknonarm jobs in the nation and inUtah. On a seasonally adjusted basisthere were 1,264,500 nonarm jobs

in Utah in December 2007, droppingby 91,500 jobs or 7.2 percent, to1,173,000 by February 2010. Noticethat when production began toclimb once again in July o 2009,jobs in Utah continued to declineand did not began to growth untilspring o 2010.

The leisure and hospitality industryared somewhat better during the

Support Economic GrowthFun, Beauty & Culture



recession, shedding ewer jobsand recovering aster. Again on aseasonally adjusted basis, leisureand hospitality employment withinUtah peaked in December 2007with 115,900 jobs. This industry

hit bottom in December 2009, at109,400 jobs, a reduction rom thepeak o 5.6 percent. By August 2011,the leisure and hospitality industrywas 0.9 percent or 1,000 jobs belowthe December 2007 record.

Total nonarm jobs in Utah remain3.7 percent below the pre-recessionpeak. The state will need anadditional 46,500 jobs to return tothe pre-recession level (see chart).

The leisure and hospitality industry

gives important support to overalleconomic activity in Utah, helpingto pull the State out o the recessionand into a brighter economic uture.The high quality o lie enjoyed byresidents and visitors alike is closelytied to this industry.

Percent of Nonfarm Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality

by County • Average for the Year Ending in March 2011


Percent of Peak Employment • December 2007Jan. 2006 through August 2011 (Seasonally Adjusted Data)

43.3%

38.6%

38.2%

30.3%

28.7%

27.2%

22.3%

19.5%

17.2%

15.6%

14.7%

13.8%

12.5%

11.1%

10.7%

10.1%

9.9%

9.5%

9.4%

9.1%

9.0%

8.9%

8.6%

8.6%

8.3%

8.3%

8.1%

7.4%

7.2%

5.4%

Garfield

Summit

Grand

Kane

Daggett

Wayne

Rich

Wasatch

Beaver

Washington

San Juan

Piute

Iron

Sevier

Davis

Tooele

Statewide

Juab

Millard

Carbon

Weber

Uintah

Morgan

Utah

Salt Lake

Box Elder

Cache

Emery

Sanpete

Duchesne

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total Nonfarm Leisure & Hospitality Industry

Utah cizens as wellas visitors enjoy

recreaonal acvies

and generate income

to sustain our

economic vitality.



To learn more, see "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment — August 2011"

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/laus_09162011.pdf

Statistically Signicant Employment ChangesSelected states • August 2010-August 2011 • seasonally adjuste

Over the year to August 2011, 25 states experienced statistically signicant changesin nonarm payroll employment, 24 o which were increases. The largest increase occurred in Texas(+253,200), ollowed by Caliornia (+171,300), New York (+83,400), Ohio (+80,300), and Michigan(+79,800). The only state with an over-the-year statistically signicant decrease in employment wasGeorgia (−29,500).

The largest over-the-year percentage increase in nonarm payroll employment occurred in NorthDakota (+5.0 percent), ollowed by Utah and Wyoming (+3.0 percent each).

Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics.

253,200

171,300

83,400

80,300

79,800

56,600

48,000

44,300

42,700

42,400

41,500

39,700

35,200

31,600

24,700

23,200

21,900

20,000

18,900

16,400

10,700

8,400

8,400

5,800

-29,500

Texas (2.4%)

California (1.2%)

New York (1.0%)

Ohio (1.6%)

Michigan (2.1%)

Pennsylvania (1.0%)

Massachusetts (1.5%)

Minnesota (1.7%)

Oklahoma (2.8%)

Illinois (0.8%)

Washington (1.5%)

Arizona (1.7%)

Utah (3.0%)

Louisiana (1.7%)

Wisconsin (0.9%)

Oregon (1.5%)

Kentucky (1.2%)

Iowa (1.4%)

North Dakota (5.0%)

Nebraska (1.7%)

New Hampshire (1.7%)

Hawaii (1.4%)

Wyoming (3.0%)

Vermont (2.0%)

Georgia (-0.8%)

Over-the-year change in payroll jobs

Did you know?Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Utah is

currently tied with Wyoming as the second fastest

growing state in new job creation.

The largest over-the-year

percent increases were

North Dakota (5percent),

Utah (3 percent) and

Wyoming (3 percent).






w w | b b , p c c

Source: Utah Dept. o Workorce Services, Unemployment Insurance Division.

Employers subject to the Employment SecurityAct are required to pay contributions (unem-ployment taxes) to the Unemployment Insur-

ance (UI) Compensation Trust Fund. This money isused to pay unemployment insurance benets toindividuals who become unemployed, through noault o their own.

An employer’s overall tax rate is based on a statutory

ormula that actors in several components to insurethe solvency o the UI Trust Fund and to equitablyadjust tax rates on employers that are responsibleor generating these costs. The higher benet costsassociated with the economic downturn, haveresulted in a signicant decline in Utah’s UI TrustFund balance over the past two years.

Thirty-two states’ trust unds have becomeinsolvent during the last three years and they havebeen orced to borrow over $46 billion rom the

Federal government or issue state bonds. Utah’scurrent Trust Fund balance (as o August 24, 2011)is $360 million (see chart below).

Based on new projections, employment trends, andimproved unemployment rates, it is anticipatedUtah’s UI Trust Fund will remain solvent (see chartbelow), however it may go as low as $200 million.

The Department o Workorce Services (DWS) hasbeen proactive with multiple initiatives to helpensure the long-term solvency o Utah’s TrustFund, implementing enhanced integrity and re-employment initiatives.

DWS will continue to closely monitor the TrustFund and may consider recommending minorchanges to the tax rate ormulas to ensure long-term solvency. DWS’ goal is to keep the UI TrustFund solvent.

Unemployment Insurane Trust Fund

Utah Trust Fund Balane Projetions

Is Utah’s

Solvent?



| b c p , c

I you like volatility, you’ll like the construction industry

employment data. Obviously, this industry remainsextremely prone to the vicissitudes o the business

cycle—the most recent example is just barely behind us.Employment ell rom a high o almost 110,000 in August2007 to a low o 59,200 in February 2010. Fortunately,survey data suggests that the industry has nally started toimprove with a year-to-year increase o 0.6 percent in August2011. In 2010, construction employment accounted or 5.5percent o Utah’s total nonarm jobs. In 2007, its share o employment measured more than 8 percent o the total.However, it’s important to note that the housing bubbleand speculation “over-infated” construction employmentduring the recent boom years.

In addition, construction employment (like the weather) isvery seasonal in nature. (Note the chart that accompaniesthis article.) Employment is highest in the summer monthsand lowest in the coldest months. That means a notablenumber o construction workers are unemployed in thecourse o even a very good economic year.

In 2010, the average monthly wage or construction workerswas $3,500 compared to $3,250 or all employment.However, seven major industries (including manuacturing)pay higher wages on average than construction.

ConstrctionIndustry Highlight

utah Constrctionemploymnt

Construction employment is

seasonal; a noteable number of

workers are unemployed even

during a good economic year.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



Beaver 8.0 %Box Elder 9.2 %Cache 5.3 %Carbon 7.6 %Daggett 7.0 %

Davis 7.0 %Duchesne 5.8 %Emery 8.4 %Gareld 12.5 %

Grand 11.6 %

Iron 9.1 % Juab 10.8 %Kane 8.4 %Millard 5.8 %Morgan 5.9 %

Piute 8.1 %Rich 6.0 %Salt Lake 7.3 %San Juan 13.0 %Sanpete 9.4 %

Sevier 8.3 %Summit 6.6 %Tooele 7.8 %Uintah 5.3 %Utah 7.5 %

Wasatch 8.6 %Washington 9.4 %Wayne 11.4 %Weber 8.6 %

a 2011s aj

up r

Next Issue:Watch for these features in our

August 2011Unemployment Rates

Changes From LastYear

Utah Unemployment Rate 7.6 % unchanged

U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.6 % Down 0.5 points

Utah Nonarm Jobs (000s) 1,212.5 Up 2.9 %

U.S. Nonarm Jobs (000s) 131,552.0 Up 1.1 %

August 2011 Consumer PriceIndex RatesU.S. Consumer Price Index 226.5 Up 3.8%

U.S. Producer Price Index 191.6 Up 6.5%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

jb..v/w t 2

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Theme:A Look Forwardand a Look Back

Industry Highlight: Waste Management

Occupation:Waste Management

Occupations

j u s t

t h e f a c t s...



Presorted Standard

US Postage

PAID

SLC, UT

Permit # 4621

Utah Department of Workforce Services

Workforce Research and Analysis Division

140 E. 300 S.

Salt Lake City, UT 84111

Finding your job just got easier.

The Department o Workorce Services provides you

with the most complete resources and innovative tools

you need to be successul in launching your career.

DWS, Utah’s Job Connection.

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