Nov 27

KIIW Hindu Nov 27

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Notes by vineetpunnoose on www.kiwipaper.com

Content

SAARC leaders reach last-minute energy deal 1

SAARC leaders to push for connectivity pacts at retreat 1

Pak. to have 200 nuclear warheads by 2020: US think tank 1

The demographic challenge 2

Envisioning a new Afghanistan 3

Parliament passes Apprentices Bill 5

The new Iron Curtain of Europe 5

Hong Kong student leaders banned from Mong Kok protest site 6

Japan casts shadow on China's bullet train ambition with India 7

Myanmar's Suu Kyi woos military lawmakers ahead of talks on constitution 7

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Notes by vineetpunnoose on www.kiwipaper.com Page 1

SAARC leaders reach last-minute energy deal Thu, Nov 27, 2014The Hindu, international, SAARC,

Foreign Ministers of the eight countries signed an agreement on energy cooperation

The Ministers signed the SAARC Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation(Electricity). Two other agreements, according to current SAARC Chair, Prime Ministerof Nepal Sushil Koirala, would be signed later after the Transport Ministers of thesecountries reviewed them. These two are the Regulation of Passenger and Cargo VehicularTraffic amongst SAARC Member States, and SAARC Regional Agreement on Railways.

SAARC leaders to push for connectivity pacts at retreat Thu, Nov 27, 2014Pakistan, The Hindu, international, Nepal, SAARC,

Retreat is a tradition of SAARC Summit where leaders hold private, unofficial bilateraland multilateral talks in a relaxed and more informal atmosphere. SAARC retreats areideally organised outside the summit venue in resorts and hotels where the leaders canrelax and discuss the bilateral and multilateral agendas. It also provides an opportunityto quell disagreements on unresolved issues.

Since Pakistan has stalled the inking of SAARC connectivity on the pretext that theyhave not completed the "internal process", the leaders are expected to convey theirkeenness to ink the pacts.

Pak. to have 200 nuclear warheads by 2020: US think tank Thu, Nov 27, 2014Pakistan, nuclear warheads, The Hindu, international,

Pakistan is likely to have enough fissile material to build over 200 nuclear warheadsby 2020

"Pakistan, which has the fastest growing nuclear weapon program in the world, isbelieved to have enough fissile material to produce between 110 and 120 nuclearwarheads. By 2020, Pakistan could have a fissile material stockpile sufficient to producemore than 200 nuclear weapons."

South Asia is the region "most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to anexplosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growingnuclear arsenals."

The report details that "Pakistan has deployed or is developing eleven delivery systemsfor its nuclear warheads, including aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles."

Pakistan has not formally declared the conditions under which it would use nuclear

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weapons but has indicated that it seeks primarily to deter India from threatening itsterritorial integrity or the ability of its military to defend its territory.

While Pakistan is focused predominantly on the threat posed by India, it is reportedlyalso concerned by the potential for the United States to launch a military operation toseize or disarm Pakistani nuclear weapons

Second nuclear age

the "security dilemma" of the Cold War, has given way to a "security trilemma" whereactions taken by one state to protect itself from a second make a third feel insecure.

Due to this trilemma, the report says, though nuclear arsenals are shrinking in the restof the world, Asia is witnessing a nuclear build up. Unlike the remaining PermanentFive (P5) countries, China is increasing and diversifying its nuclear arsenal.

The other major challenge as per the report is the emergence of non-nuclear militarytechnologies like missile defences, anti-satellite weapons, long-range precision strikesystems and cyber weapons which mitigate the strategic effects of nuclear weapons.

The demographic challenge Thu, Nov 27, 2014demographic dividend, The Hindu, economics,

The rhetoric on the capacity of countries to reap the so-called demographic dividendcannot mask the more complex reality of a not-so-young world in 2014, and non-uniformpatterns of growth. About a quarter of the world's population -- 1.8 billion -- is in theage-group of 10-24 years, according to the latest United Nations Population Fund report.In 1950, the proportion was higher, at almost a third of the global total, at 721 million.The 10-24 age segment has thus declined overall, while it has more than doubled inabsolute terms during the period. This means that in theory, people in this age bracket,their number larger than China's population, can hope to live longer, be better fed andeducated, do decent jobs and earn adequate incomes. In concrete terms, this segmentwould swell the share of the working-age population -- those between 15 and 64 years-- over the next few decades. But here is the catch. Nine out of ten people, or 89 percent, in the 10-24 age-group live in less developed countries, Most people who are alivetoday are below 30 years of age. In 17 states, 15 of them from sub-Saharan Africa, onehalf of the population is under 18 years. One in three girls in the developing world ismarried before reaching 18, raising the risk of early and perhaps unintended motherhoodamong children and hampering the realisation of their full potential. One in seven HIVinfections occur during adolescence.

India's age-dependency ratio has ranged in the 50s per 100 working population between2010 and 2013, China has stayed in the mid-30s during the corresponding period.

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India's higher ratio underscores the extent to which social protection measures wouldhave to be strengthened for both the components to ease their mutual interdependenceand enhance the quality of life. Prime Minister Narendra Modi must take up massivepublic-funded programmes in basic education, health care and vocational training, witha thrust on building a clean economy. Only then could the current younger age profileof the population prove advantageous. The demographic dividend refers to the potentialamong countries to increase economic growth by taking advantage of the changing agestructure in the population. Clearly, a great deal remains to be done to realise thispotential.

Envisioning a new Afghanistan Thu, Nov 27, 2014Pakistan, The Hindu, international, Afghanistan, SCO,

Close on the heels of the fourth 'Heart of Asia' Ministerial conference in the frameworkof the Istanbul Process, hosted for the first time by the People's Republic of China(PRC) and the first official visit the Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani paid to Beijing,a regional Track II conference, "Envisioning Afghanistan post-2014" was held inIstanbul this month. 60 experts, from Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and the Central AsianRepublics, barring Turkmenistan, along with advisers from Iran, Turkey, Russia andChina have been meeting regularly over the last three years.

What is of relevance from the joint declaration are its three key recommendations:establishing a joint special commission of AfPak, holding an India-Pakistan dialogueon Afghanistan, and advocacy that Afghanistan be accepted as a neutral countrycommencing with a framework for non-interference and non-intervention underwrittenby the United Nations.

At the Istanbul meeting, Central Asian policy groups asserted that the Shanghai Six --the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) -- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,Kazakhstan, Russia and China, have been pledging for the last three years at the SCOsummit, their commitment for a neutral Afghanistan.

The joint declaration will shortly have an add-on: an Annexure on Enduring Neutrality.Experts who have studied the Austrian and Swiss models say that the neutrality ofAfghanistan will mean de facto neutralisation of Pakistan, and so the biggest obstaclein its acceptance will be the Pakistan Army with its gospel of strategic depth. ThePakistan Army has invested precious lives and resources in creating strategic assetsthrough "good terrorists" which has paradoxically led to many of these terrorists securingstrategic depth inside Pakistan.

The regional Joint Declaration is Afghan-driven and Afghan-owned. With thepower-sharing agreement soon expected to realise a council of ministers, features ofthis document are likely to transfer from Track II to Track I. An important ongoing

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search is to find and fix a regional organisation into which the envisaged regionalframework can fit. Those available are the South Asian Association for RegionalCooperation (SAARC), the SCO, and the Istanbul Process, which is not an organisationbut has Track I institutions supporting it.

India and Pakistan are observers and are expected to attain full membership of the SCOin 2015. Afghanistan and Iran, also observers, are likely to join in 2016. The SCOconstitutes the most effective regional organisation from the neighbourhood to graduallyreplace or supplement the Istanbul Process. Whether this is an idea whose time hascome will depend on China as Russia is the key sponsor of Afghanistan's neutrality.

Until last year, China's Afghanistan policy was characterised by four Nos: No bootson the ground, no interference in internal affairs; no use of the Northern DistributionNetwork (NDN) for the withdrawal of foreign forces, and no criticism of the UnitedStates. But that could change as it is now politically active in South Asia. A Track IIwas held recently in Beijing with Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, and where Afghanand Pakistani participants canvassed for the PRC's deeper political involvement inAfghanistan; unlike western countries, it is not tainted with the brush of intervention.

After the signing of the Afghanistan-China Deepening Strategic and CooperativePartnership, President Xi said his country would enhance its economic investment aswell as enlarge its security assistance, which in the past has included the training ofpolice and providing non-lethal military equipment. Beijing has pledged a $327 milliongrant over three years, in addition to $200 million given earlier. China's main fearsthat stem from AfPak are extremism, separatism and terrorism arising especially fromthe Uyghurs linked to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. Islamabad is known tobe advising Beijing to enlarge its profile in Afghanistan, consider replacing the U.S.and expelling India.

Premier Le Keqiang suggested the formation of a peace committee comprising regionalcountries to include Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan (and presumably led by China) totalk to the Afghanistan Taliban. The proposal was shot down by Russia due to its policyof not talking to terrorists. China follows a similar policy.

The artificial arrangement -- a forging of the National Unity Government (NUG) ofPresident Ghani and CEO/PM Abdullah Abdullah -- has to be constitutionally legitimisedafter ratification by a Loya Jirga by the end of 2016.

Once adversaries, two five-men teams representing Mr. Abdullah's Reform andPartnership Team and Mr. Ghani's Transformation and Continuity Party are workingtogether. They are busy fleshing out institutional arrangements to support the power-sharingarrangement in which the President will define policy and vision and the CEO/PM willexecute it and preside over the Council of Ministers.

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Two deadlines confront Kabul: legitimising the NUG and assuming full charge of thecountry by the end of 2016. U.S. President Barack Obama's stunning politicalannouncement withdrawing troops by the end of 2016 instead of 2024 was shock andawe for the Afghans.

Parliament passes Apprentices Bill Thu, Nov 27, 2014The Hindu, Apprentices Bill, polity,

A Bill seeking to remove imprisonment as punishment for violating the provisions ofthe Apprentices Act, 1961 and allowing employers to fix the hours of work and leaveas per their discretion or policy was passed by the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday.

The Apprentices (Amendment) Bill, 2014 was passed by voice vote with a majority ofspeakers favouring the legislation, saying it is aimed at enhancing the skills of youthand make them employable.

Some members, however, had reservations saying certain provisions in the Bill are"draconian" as employers have been given full powers to deal with apprentices in anymanner.

The Bill seeks to amend certain definitions, increases the minimum age for apprenticesin hazardous industries and removes imprisonment as a punishment for violating theprovisions of the Act.

The new Iron Curtain of Europe Thu, Nov 27, 2014migration, The Hindu, immigration, international, Europe,

At present, immigration is one of the most divisive issues confronting an already bitterlydivided Europe. In May, Eurosceptic, far-right parties in France, the U.K. and othernations made big gains after contesting the EU elections on an anti-immigration agenda.They received a boost on November 11, when the European Court of Justice weighedin on the issue, ruling that the EU's richer countries could limit the access of migrantsfrom other EU states to welfare benefits if they migrate only to claim social aid.

In August, two Ministers in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government presenteda draft law to curb down on abuse of the country's welfare system, though there havebeen very few cases of proven deception by the immigrant population.

The continent's biggest economy, Germany, is in need of a highly-skilled workforceto keep its economy running. According to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research,the country may need to fill up to a million jobs in science and technology-related fieldsby 2020 even as, on account of low birth rate, its workforce continues to dwindle. The

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Berlin Institute for Population and Development estimates that by 2050 the number ofworking-age people will decline from 53.3 to 38.6 million, while the number ofeconomically dependent (children and pensioners) will rise exponentially.

Changing demographics, the global recession and increasing pressure on the welfaresystem has ratcheted up cultural and racial tensions in Germany. displays of xenophobiahave, however, come not only from the extreme right, which has been condemned tothe fringes of the polity since the end of World War II, but also from the AfD (Alternativefor Germany) party, whose leaders have been quoted as saying that the German identityis "dying out" because of immigration.

After last year's tragedy off the coast of Lampedusa in Italy, in which more than 360African refugees died after their ship caught fire and sank, there were calls for amendmentsto the EU's asylum policies and wider distribution of asylum-seekers among the bloc'snations.

The economics of a globalised world is compelling European nations to open themselvesup to immigrants. In Germany, by 2030, the number of people retiring will be twicethe number entering the labour market. In such a scenario, hounding people in searchof a life of dignity and xenophobic demagoguery would only prove detrimental to thecontinent's future. More than political and economic pragmatism, it is a question ofhumanity and being true to the principles on which the EU was founded. How ironicwill it be if Ms Merkel, who grew up under a communist dictatorship in East Germany,does nothing to bring down this new Iron Curtain around Europe?

Hong Kong student leaders banned from Mong Kok protest site Thu, Nov 27, 2014Hong Kong, The Hindu, international, China,

The protesters are demanding open nominations for the Chinese-controlled city's nextchief executive nomination in 2017. Beijing said in August it would allow a vote, butonly among pre-screened candidates.

Lined with banks, noodle shops and gritty tenements, the streets of Mong Kok havebeen a key battleground for protesters and mobs intent on disbanding them, and wasviewed as the protest site most likely to resist clearance.

While the protesters regrouped and tried to storm back onto the roads, they ultimatelyfailed to penetrate the mass of police armed with pepper spray and batons deployed todefend the major traffic intersections.

The Mong Kok clearance was the second time in as many weeks that police, courtbailiffs and workers moved to enforce court-ordered injunctions to clear the streets.

The main protest site in Admiralty next to the city's chief executive office and barracks

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for China's People's Liberation Army remains largely intact. There is also a small protestsite in the Causeway Bay shopping district.

Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese Communist Party rule in 1997under a "one country, two systems" formula that gave it some autonomy from themainland and an undated promise of universal suffrage.

Japan casts shadow on China's bullet train ambition with India Thu, Nov 27, 2014The Hindu, international, bullet train, China, Japan,

China is keeping its fingers crossed regarding a possible bullet- train deal with Indiaalong the 1,754 kilometre Delhi-Chennai high speed rail corridor.

Besides, it observed that "Japan, which is also eyeing the market and has pledged tooffer a more attractive funding scheme, is a serious rival in the sector."

Highly places sources told The Hindu that the finalisation of the study of the Delhi-Chennaicorridor does not mean a commitment to award the high-speed rail contract to a Chinesecompany.

China's mixed response to the prospect of a deal, which could turn travel time betweenDelhi and Chennai to around 6 hours, follows its recent debacle in Mexico.

Myanmar's Suu Kyi woos military lawmakers ahead of talks on constitution Thu, Nov 27, 2014Myanmar, The Hindu, international, Aung San Suu Kyi,

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has invited military lawmakers to dinnerin a bid to build ties ahead of a proposed summit on changing the constitution, whichbars her from the presidency,

Mutual understanding has long been in short supply in Myanmar, which emerged in2011 from 49 years of rule by military generals who unleashed bloody crackdowns onpro-democracy demonstrators and imprisoned political activists.

Ms. Suu Kyi has endorsed reforms by the semi-civilian government of former generalMr. Thein Sein.

She was famously pictured watching a military parade in Naypyitaw last year, alongsidemembers of the previous junta that had kept her under house arrest for more than 15years.

But over the past year Ms. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate, has been critical of thegovernment, accusing it of stalling the reform process.

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Her party has gathered about 5 million signatures in support of a petition to amend themilitary-drafted constitution to reduce the military's role in politics.

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