Direction de l’Observation et de la Programmation

NOTE DE VEILLE

DU SECTEUR ENERGETIQUE ET MINIER

(Informations du 06 mars 2013)

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ENERGIE

La Banque mondiale cherche à rassembler 500 M USD pour la géo-thermie

(Source FeedDemon)

La Banque mondiale a annoncé mercredi à Reykjavik le lancement d'un fonds de 500 millions de dollars pour aider au développement de l'énergie géothermique dans les pays en dévelop-pement.

"L'énergie géothermique pourrait faire gagner les pays en développement sur trois plans: c'est une énergie propre, fiable et produite localement", a affirmé la directrice générale de l'organisation, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, citée dans un communiqué.

Selon la Banque mondiale, "au moins une quarantaine de pays ont assez de potentiel géothermique pour satisfaire une proportion de leur demande en électricité". Elle a cité le Kenya et l'Indonésie comme pionniers.

La Banque a appelé les donateurs à participer à son Plan mondial de développement géothermique "en aidant à identifier des projets viables et à travers une assistance bilatérale". Elle doit convoquer une conférence de donateurs courant 2013.

PETROLE

Pétrole: le Brent reprend les 111 dollars.

(Source FeedDemon)

Après le rebond intervenu hier sur le plus bas de l'année pour le Brent, une légère consolidation était à l'ordre du jour sur les marchés pétroliers ce midi. Vers 13 heures 25, le contrat sur le Brent de mer du Nord livrable en avril cédait 0,2 à 111,4 dollars et le WTI américain de même échéance le suivait de 0,1% à 90,7 dollars.

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«Le pétrole reprend de la hauteur dans le sillage du rebond des marchés actions hier. La vigueur affi-chée par les marchés actions hier a nourri la hausse des matières premières. En effet, le Dow Jones a clôturé à 14 253,77 points soit un plus haut jamais atteint. La bonne tenue des indices américains rassurent quant aux perspectives économiques du pays», commentent à ce propos les analystes de Saxo Banque ce matin.

Citibank souligne aussi que les bons résultats publiés par les sociétés américaines ont également soutenu le cours du WTI, du côté américain.

Notons aussi que le rebond du Brent est d'autant plus marqué qu'une fuite a été découverte sur une plate-forme de mer du Nord. L'unité en question a été fermée pour des raisons de sécurité alors que selon Saxo Banque encore, quelque 90.000 barils de pétrole y transitent tous les jours.

ENERGIES SPECIAL AFRIQUE

Shell perd son pétrole au Nigeria

(Source FeedDemon)

Les voleurs de pétrole nigérians ont encore détourné dix pour cent de la production d’hydrocarbures de Shell au Nigeria, affirme la société anglo-néerlandaise, qui chiffre les pertes à 60.000 barils par jour.

Les prélèvements sont effectués sur l'oléoduc de Nembe Creek, dans le delta du Niger, au sud du pays, et se sont amplifiés depuis deux mois. La compagnie n’est pas en mesure de sécuriser les 6.000 km d’oléoducs qu’elle exploite, mais envisage de couper la conduite qui transporte 150.000 barils par jour, d’une valeur de marché de 15 millions de dollars.

Le directeur local de Shell, Mutiu Sunmonu, expliquait à la dernière conférence sur le pétrole et le gaz nigérian à Port-Harcourt que les vols profitent à des personnalités haut placées. Ces trafiquants sont suffisamment puissants - du fait des revenus du trafic - pour empêcher les forces armées ou la police de s’y opposer.

En octobre 2012, Shell s’était déclarée en situation de force majeure en raison de ces détournements.

La campagne « Stop The Theft » explique que ces vols font perdre 10 milliards de dollars de revenus par an au pays. Ils permettent à des bandes violentes de s’armer, et l’insécurité du delta se répercute sur les populations.

La pollution liée aux fuites pétrolières affecte aussi les 31 millions de Nigérians de la région du delta, dont l’espérance de vie est de 46 ans.

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ENERGIES SPECIAL AMERIQUE DU NORD

Go deep: LNG exporters eye subsea pipelines (Source FeedDemon)

Those racing to carry natural gas to Canada’s West Coast are contemplating an unusual detour onto the ocean floor near British Columbia as they seek ways to export energy across the Pa-cific.

Between the coast and the giant gas fields of northeastern British Columbia lies one of Canada’s most difficult geographies. Mountains, landslide-prone slopes and powerful rivers all complicate the ap-proach to the ocean for companies working to bring energy to terminals where it can be loaded onto ships destined for Asia.

The ocean-floor proposal, from Spectra Energy Corp., is the latest example of the unexpected deci-sions engineers are contemplating to conquer complicated terrain.

Spectra is planning a massive 4.2-billion-cubic-feet-per-day pipeline to a liquefied natural gas export terminal proposed by BG Group PLC near Prince Rupert. The companies have sketched a route across northern B.C. with three possible final legs: two on the sea bed, and another on land. The submarine options include 70 or 120 kilometres of underwater pipeline.

“We have looked at subsea pipeline options as a potential method to minimize disturbance to the land,” Spectra said in a statement. The company is “working right now with independent marine and hydrographic experts to do detailed investigations of the characteristics of the sea bed.”

Sub-sea pipelines are common in other countries. But they are rare in Canada, where energy moves primarily across land.

The west coast of British Columbia provides such formidable challenges that industry has devised widely different plans to reach the water. Three pipeline companies have contemplated a half-dozen routes to the coast. Enbridge Inc. has chosen a route for its Northern Gateway oil project to Kitimat, B.C., which it feels is better sheltered from tsunamis and allows for a pipeline “a few hundred k i-lometres” shorter than other alternatives, spokesman Todd Nogier said. Enbridge felt the ocean bot-tom was “less technically suitable for an oil/condensate pipeline system.”

Spectra and TransCanada Corp., which has agreed to build a pipeline for Malaysia’s Petronas, are examining ways to bring gas to the more westerly port at Prince Rupert.

The Spectra route travels through the Nass River valley, which boasts more open terrain than the Skeena River valley that is now the main transportation corridor to Prince Rupert. Bounded by steep cliffs, the Skeena is so constrained that to build a new pipeline that “you would literally have to lay through the river, which is one of the most sensitive salmon rivers in the world,” said Betsy Spomer, senior vice-president of business development with BG.

The more northerly Nass route has the added advantage of travelling through territory controlled by the Nisga’a, which signed British Columbia’s first modern-day land claim in 2000. The Nisga’a believe LNG exports are a “huge opportunity, which would be great for the country and the province,” said president Mitchell Stevens.

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The Nass route will likely require tunnels and aerial crossings, he said. And one of the submarine routes crosses a constitutionally protected Nisga’a mollusc-harvesting area. Still, the Nisga’a are not opposed to the ocean-floor idea. “With technology today the way things are, they say you can build anything – and I don’t doubt that fact for a minute,” Mr. Stevens said.

He added that TransCanada is also considering a route through the Nass; a company spokesman declined to provide details. Environmentalists argue that underwater crossings should be treated with caution. “The fact is leaks and ruptures happen, and there have been very few studies on the implica-tions of a subsea gas rupture,” said Tzeporah Berman, a long-time green campaigner in B.C.

Underwater maps show water on Spectra’s proposed routes ranges in depth from 129 to 554 metres. Pipelines have been built in waters three times that deep in the Gulf of Mexico, where the U.S. has issued permits for more than 18,500 pipelines.

That network of oil and gas pipe routinely weathers hurricanes. Underwater pipelines are unaffected by freeze-up or spring melt, and use less invasive installation methods, said Terry Townend, a vice-president in charge of pipeline and sub-sea development for Houston-based Pinnacle Engineering Inc.

“You’d be much better off on the ocean floor than you are crossing environmentally sensitive areas and rivers,” he said. “You have a floating vessel just laying pipe. Letting it rest on bottom makes a lot more sense to me.”

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ENERGIES SPECIAL EURASIE

Energy will not create tension between Greece and Turkey, says Tur-kish minister

(Source FeedDemon)

Energy issues will not become a source of friction between Greece and Turkey, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told the English-language Hurriyet Daily News on Wednesday.

“We have the intention of using energy issues not as a reason to create tension but as a reason for growth and opening,” Yildiz told the Turkish daily. “We will see whether other countries will follow this principle.”

He added that the Turkish government has told Greece that it had not current intention of conducting exploration in the countries’ shared sea areas.

On Monday, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras met his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s Abdullah Gul, during a Greek-Turkish High Level Cooperation Council which took place in Istanbul. It led to the signing of 25 bilateral agreements.

Ankara is opposed to Greece exploring for oil and gas in the Aegean until a dispute over the delinea-tion of the continental shelf has been resolved.

Turkey: Shale gas reserves ‘enough for 40 years’

(Source FeedDemon)

Turkey’s estimated shale gas reserve is 1.8 trillion cubic meters and could satisfy 40 years of natural gas consumption with an annual production of 45 billion cubic meters, according to the Turkish Association of Petroleum Geologists (TPJD).

“Turkey has considerable shale gas potential, particularly in the regions of Thrace and the Southeast,” said TPJD President İsmail Bahtiyar yesterday. Turkey’s natural gas consumption is around 45 billion cubic meters a year, he said, noting that the estimated shale gas reserve, which is 1.8 billion cubic meters, would satisfy Turkey’s natural gas consumption for the next four decades. “These figures are for only the Thrace and Southeast Regions. We think there are also shale gas reserves in East Anato-lia, Ankara, the Toros Mountains [in the south] and the Black Sea region,” he said.

Shale gas does not constitute an alternative to natural gas, it actually has the qualities of natural gas, he said, though as the traditional drilling of wells costs between $2 and $3 million, shale gas produc-tion is a higher-cost process. In spite of this, it will lower oil and natural gas prices, he stressed, adding that the Oil Law in Turkey protected risk-profit balances in favor of investors.

Bahtiyar noted that natural gas consumption prices decreased in the United States due to their shale gas production that intensified in the last years in parallel with increases in their natural gas demand. He also noted that Turkey’s natural gas consumption price was four to five times more than the U.S.

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Meanwhile, Turkey paid $60.1 billion for energy last year with an 11 percent increase from a year ear-lier, according to figures of state-run statistic body TÜİK. The figures show that a quarter of Turkey’s $237 billion in total imports last year consisted of energy imports and the IMF forecasts it will surpass $70 billion by 2017.

ENERGIES SPECIAL ASIE OCEANIE

Australia’s energy utilities ‘second biggest in world’ for Big Data ana-lysis

(Source FeedDemon)

The growth in the Smart Grid and smart metering in Australia has made the local electrical utili-ties market one of the largest in the world for data analytics software, says one major vendor.

SAS Institute’s Tim Fairchild is Director of the company’s global utilities practice. He says that Austra-lia’s vibrant utilities market, and the need to analyse the massive amounts of data new Smart Grid technology is generating, made Australia SAS’s second biggest utilities market globally last year, after only the USA.

“We’ve seen large growth in the market worldwide, but growth in Australia has been massive,” Fair-child told iTWire. He is visiting Australia and New Zealand to talk to some major SAS customers in the energy and water space.

He said the main reasons for Australia’s strong growth in utilities analytics were the strong economy, the very competitive energy market, and the growth in technology like smart meters which meant that electricity distributors and retailers now had vastly more customer and network data to analyse.

“Electricity utilities in particular are awash with data. There is massive complexity and uncertainty. It’s a very imperfect world.”

SAS is the world’s largest privately owned software company, with revenues of nearly $3 billion. Once better known as a purveyor of techie statistical tools, has made a major transition over the last decade to a more solution-based company. Its first such products were in horizontal markets like financial management, but it has now branched into targeting vertical markets – industry sectors such as ban-king, health, hospitality, and now utilities.

Fairchild said the utilities market was one of the fastest growing areas for SAS. “No other industry has more potential for the application of advanced analytics. It’s not just electricity – it’s advanced trans-portation, water technologies, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Water we think will be particu-larly important – you can live without those other things, but you can’t live without water. And they’re not making any more of it.”

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ENERGIES SPECIAL CHINE

China's new leadership faces growing environmental pressures

(Source FeedDemon)

As the Chinese government prepares to make a leadership transition this week, the country faces conflicting pressures as it strives toward economic growth while wanting to reduce emissions.

While the country’s new leaders have declared “ecological progress” will be a priority, analysts at a World Resources Institute-led press teleconference said China must deal with series of inter-linked challenges– economic prosperity, energy security, mitigating climate change and social unrest – to make environmental strides.

Even then, any changes probably won’t be seen until after 2015, when the country’s current five-year environmental plan ends, the analysts said.

“We’re not going to see any big change in 2013, because it is in the middle of China’s 12th five-year plan,” said Melanie Hart, a policy analyst for the Center for American Progress. Still, “the 2011 to 2015 plan is dedicated to move in a low carbon direction,” she said.

China has been making progress on its targets for the 12th five-year plan to increase the non-fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption to 11.4 percent by 2015.

Growth in the use of non-fossil fuels is over 9 percent for 2012, with some estimates at 9.9 percent, compared to about 8.6 percent in 2011. The country’s overall rate of economic growth fell to 5.5 per-cent in 2012 from 11.7 percent in 2011, Hart said, reducing expected pressures on the environment.

But, while growth in Chinese coal demand is not as rapid as in the past and not as large as some groups in the U.S. had been projecting, China’s use of coal is still growing.

“It (coal consumption) will still continue to grow and grow exponentially,” said Julio Friedmann, energy technology chief at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States, and technical pro-gram manager for the US-China Clean Energy Research Center for Advanced Coal Technology.

Friedmann said he expects a 50 to 60 percent increase in China’s coal consumption in coming years. That’s not as large as some experts had predicted, but even so, “I do not see a plateau in the coming years,” he said.

China’s demand for coal depends largely on the rate of economic growth, though other factors – regu-lation and environmental policy – also will play a role, said Ailun Yang, a senior associate at the World Resources Institute, during the conference call.

To help hold the line on fossil fuel emissions and pollution, Chinese officials have proposed a carbon tax, which would create costs for companies who emit carbon emissions. But Yang said an expansion of the resource tax to cover coal is more likely.

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The resource tax, Yang said, would tax consumers. While proposals for a carbon tax have gotten quieter in the past year, she said, several provinces, including Xinjinag, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou, are already piloting the resource tax with oil, gas and a few mineral resources.

While some of the initiatives sound promising, Yang said she did not expect any dramatic position changes by China’s new leadership.

But Hart said China recognises the very serious pressure it is under now that the country is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter. As the U.S. moves toward natural gas and away from coal with shale gas development, China is in a more precarious position if they can no longer “point toward the U.S. as the bad guy,” she said.

“They (China) are not going to be able to put themselves in the same bucket as developing countries like Sudan much longer,” Hart said. “China needs some recognition that they are no longer a deve-loping country and since they are the largest emitter they need to take on responsibility.”

ENERGIES SPECIAL INDE

Un groupe indien va entrer dans l'exploration pétrolière en France (presse)

(Source FeedDemon)

La modification d'un permis de recherche d'hydrocarbures en Gironde a reçu un feu vert minis-tériel, ce qui va permettre au groupe pétrochimique indien Indorama d'entrer dans l'exploration pétrolière en France, a rapporté mercredi le Bulletin de l'industrie pétrolière (BIP).

La ministre de l'Ecologie et de l'énergie, Delphine Batho, a signé le 1er mars la prolongation pour quatre ans et la mutation (modification des détenteurs) du permis dit de Lavignolle, a affirmé le quoti-dien spécialisé, dans son édition de mercredi.

Une telle décision, qui doit faire l'objet d'une publication au Journal officiel, n'a pas été officialisée pour le moment.

Ce permis, qui couvre plus de 200 km2 en Gironde, avait été accordé initialement en 2002 au groupe pétrolier texan Marex, auquel s'était joint en 2004 la compagnie française Maurel et Prom.

Comme le rappelle le BIP, Indorama est un groupe pétrochimique indien fondé en 1976 et dirigé par Sri Prakash Lohia, fils du fondateur de la société et par ailleurs beau-frère du magnat de l'acier Lakshmi Mittal.

Selon les demandes de prolongation et de mutation concernant ce permis, adressées en 2010 au ministère de l'Ecologie et mis en ligne par ce dernier, Indorama n'exerce pas encore en France, mais a lancé "un vaste programme d'acquisitions de permis et licences d'hydrocarbures liquides ou gazeux dans plusieurs pays, et ce afin de pouvoir devenir également un acteur dans le secteur de l'amont", c'est-à-dire l'exploration-production d'hydrocarbures.

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Par ailleurs, cette prolongation de permis, si elle est confirmée, mettrait fin au blocage administratif des demandes d'attribution ou modification de permis d'exploration et de production d'hydrocarbures, que dénonçait le secteur pétrolier depuis le début de l'année.

L'Union française des industries pétrolières (Ufip), la fédération du secteur, avait affirmé début février que 120 demandes d'attribution ou modifications de permis d'hydrocarbures étaient bloquées par l'administration, au risque selon les industriels "d'étouffer toute une activité".

ENERGIES SPECIAL JAPON

Japanese firm antes up for B.C. liquefied natural gas project

(Source FeedDemon)

Japan Petroleum Exploration, aiming to diversify its energy sources, has agreed to buy a 10-per-cent stake in a liquefied natural gas project planned in British Columbia from Progress Energy Canada Ltd.

Japex, as it’s known, will also acquire a 10-per-cent interest in the North Montney natural gas play in northeastern British Columbia from Progress, which was acquired by Malaysian state-owned energy company Petronas late last year.

“Japex believes that importing natural gas as LNG from Canada, which has ample reserves, will help diversify Japan’s LNG import, contributing to improved energy supply of Japan,” Japex said in a sta-tement Monday.

Petronas, through Calgary-based Progress, wants to transport natural gas from northeastern B.C. formations to Lelu Island, near Prince Rupert. Last month, Petronas selected TransCanada Corp. to construct the export pipeline that would lead into the Pacific Northwest LNG venture.

“With participation in this LNG project, Japex will be able to secure long-term natural gas import from Canada into Japan. Japex will further put a continuous effort to develop domestic natural gas infras-tructures,” Japex said.

Industry analysts say Japan, the world’s largest importer of LNG, has been increasing its attention on LNG since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster led to a prolonged shutdown of nuclear power reac-tors in the country.

A subsidiary of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. has a 20-per-cent stake in the Royal Dutch Shell PLC-led LNG Canada proposal, while Calgary-based Nexen Inc. has a partnership with Japan’s Inpex Corp for a rival LNG project yet to be named.

Michael Culbert, chief executive officer at Progress Energy, said last week that British Columbia has vast resources, and LNG developments will increase the value of natural gas. The number of rigs in northeastern British Columbia will climb sharply as the Pacific Northwest LNG project gets closer to completion, he told an LNG conference in Vancouver.

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Shinya Miyazaki, who works for a subsidiary of Mitsubishi, has said Canada doesn’t have a history for LNG exports, but he stressed that B.C. has the opportunity to prove itself to be a reliable LNG source.

Meanwhile, the Gitga’at First Nation said in a statement Monday that investors, including those from Japan, will need to engage in proper consultation with aboriginals.

“There is a gold rush mentality around LNG in British Columbia right now that is raising more ques-tions than it’s answering,” said Arnold Clifton, chief councillor of the Gitga’at First Nation. “Promoting development by granting export licences and making supportive announcements before environmental assessments are completed and meaningful consultation with affected First Nations has taken place, only leaves these projects at risk.”

ENERGIES SPECIAL IRAN

Iran/OCE : vers la création d'une nouvelle Opep? (Source FeedDemon)

"L'énergie n'a cessé d'être de tout temps l'un des principaux enjeux au sein des sociétés hu-maines. En ce sens, la sécurité énergétique devra comprendre les modalités de l'offre et de la demande ainsi que les capacités des membres à produire de l'énergie, a déclaré Rostam Qas-semi lors de la 3ème réunion ministérielle de l'OCE, à Téhéran. Si on parvient à un nouveau cadre susceptible de renforcer les coopérations régionales, on pourrait prévoir un avenir pros-père pour les peuples ce qui nécessite l'élaboration d'une charte pour assurer la sécurité éner-gétique de l'OCE, a-t-il précisé. En cas d'élaboration d'un plan et d'utilisation optimale de l'énergie des pays membres de l'OCE on pourrait répondre de la meilleure façon aux besoins économiques des peuples de la région, a-t-ajouté en allusion au fait qu'un quart de la totalité des réserves de gaz du monde et un huitième de la totalité des réserves de pétrole sont entre les mains de l'OCE. la réunion ministérielle de l'OCE a commencé aujourd'hui, mercredi, à Té-héran. L'Iran, la Turquie, le Pakistan, l'Afghanistan, le Tadjikistan, la République d'Azer-baïdjan, le Turkménistan, le Kazakhstan et Kirghizistan sont les membres de l'OCE. pour l'Iran l'ambition consiste à créer une opep du gaz si évidemment les alliances que les membres de l'OCE nouent avec les grandes puissances n'y joue pas un rôle négatif.

ENERGIES SPECIAL MOYEN ORIENT

Iraq's depleted uranium clean-up to cost $30m as contamination spreads

(Source FeedDemon)

Cleaning up more than 300 sites in Iraq still contaminated by depleted uranium (DU) weapons will cost at least $30m, according to a report by a Dutch peace group to be published on Thursday.

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The report, which was funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warns that the contamina-tion is being spread by poorly regulated scrap metal dealers, including children. It also documents evidence that DU munitions were fired at light vehicles, buildings and other civilian infrastructure inclu-ding the Iraqi Ministry of Planning in Baghdad – casting doubt on official assurances that only armou-red vehicles were targeted. "The use of DU in populated areas is alarming," it says, adding that many more contaminated sites are likely to be discovered, it says.

More than 400 tonnes of DU ammunition are estimated to have been fired by jets and tanks in the two Iraq wars in 1991 and 2003, the vast majority by US forces. The UK government says that British forces fired less than three tonnes.

DU is a chemically toxic and radioactive heavy metal produced as waste by the nuclear power in-dustry. It is used in weapons because it is an extremely hard material capable of piercing armour.

However, it can contaminate the environment, and has been linked to health problems in civilian popu-lations. Iraqi doctors have reported increases in cancers, and an alleged rise in birth defects is under investigation by the World Health Organisation and the Iraqi Ministry of Health.

The health effects are disputed by the US and UK governments, who joined with France and Israel to vote against a resolution calling for "a precautionary approach" to the use of DU weapons at the Uni-ted Nations General Assembly in December; 155 countries voted in favour of the resolution.

The new report from IKV Pax Christi, an inter-church peace group at Utrecht in the Netherlands, says sensationalist claims that the use of DU was "equivalent to 100 Chernobyl accidents" or was an "act of genocide" lacks any scientific basis. But it argues that the health concerns of Iraqi civilians are real and should be taken seriously.

The report, founded on three investigatory trips to Iraq in 2011 and 2012, quotes the Iraqi govern-ment's Radiation Protection Centre (RPC) as having identified between 300 and 365 contaminated sites by 2006. Most of them are in the Basra region in southern Iraq.

The report's author, Wim Zwijnenburg from IKV Pax Christi, criticised the US for failing to confirm where it had fired DU weapons. "It is unclear exactly how many locations may still be contaminated, or the extent of the risks that civilians face," he said.

"DU's apparent use in built-up areas against a range of targets in 2003 increased these risks," he ad-ded. "The uncertainty means that fear of DU among Iraqi civilians is widespread, yet effectively mana-ging DU's legacy will require international assistance."

The UK government insisted that it would continue to deploy DU weapons when needed. "There is no reliable scientific or medical evidence to suggest DU causes ill health and the UK is therefore one of various countries that do not favour adopting a precautionary approach to its use," a UK government spokeswoman told the Guardian.

"While UK armed forces have not needed to use DU since 2003, it would be wrong to deny them the potential future use of a legitimate and effective capability."

Though some cleaning up is meant to have been done, the report says that many sites are still conta-minated, and new areas of contamination continue to be found. It quotes one RPC official as saying that each site could cost between $100,000-$150,000 to decontaminate, making a total of between $30m and $45m.

The Iraqi government doesn't have the resources to deal with the problem, the report argues. It says it is also failing to control the trade in military scrap metal, which can be lucrative and involve children.

The US Department of Defence did not provide a response to questions about the report.

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Guerre en Syrie et géopolitique du gaz (Source FeedDemon)

En Syrie, il ne s'agit malheureusement plus d'un simple mouvement démocratique contre une dictature. Il y a effectivement quatre autres niveaux de lecture du drame qui se déroule dans ce pays depuis maintenant deux ans.

Le premier, c'est la guerre civile confessionnelle et communautaire (un régime alaouite soutenu par toutes les autres minorités religieuses ou ethniques contre une opposition en majorité sunnite où dji-hadistes et Frères musulmans s'imposent respectivement sur le terrain et dans les instances diri-geantes...). Le second niveau relève des déchirements interarabes, des luttes d'influences régionales et des profondes rivalités historiques entre Perses et Arabes, entre sunnites et chiites (entre les États du Golfe, soutiens de l'opposition et l'Iran, soutien du régime). Le troisième niveau est bien sûr inter-national : à tort ou à raison, du fait de son soutien au régime, la Russie devient incontournable et fait ainsi son grand retour sur la scène moyen-orientale mais aussi internationale. Enfin, le dernier niveau est aussi celui d'une bataille de l'énergie.

Car en grattant un peu, lorsqu'on analyse un conflit au Moyen-Orient, on trouve toujours du gaz ou du pétrole !

La Syrie a-t-elle alors une importance géopolitique sur l'échiquier énergétique eurasiatique ? Quand on sait que la Syrie est un élément central dans des projets de pipelines et gazoducs iraniens mais aussi qataris, la réponse semble évidente.

En effet, le Qatar partage avec l'Iran l'un des plus grands champs gaziers du monde : le South Pars du côté iranien et le North Dome pour le côté qatari. Bien attendu, des tensions existent entre les deux pays car Téhéran, du fait notamment des sanctions internationales, ne peut exploiter le gaz à la même cadence que l'Émirat.

Mais ce dernier passe par le détroit d'Ormuz et se trouve donc tributaire de l'Iran pour l'exportation de son gaz naturel liquéfié. En 2009, Doha avait alors eu l'ambition de construire un gazoduc passant par l'Arabie Saoudite, la Jordanie et la Syrie. Or, Bachar al-Assad avait refusé ce projet, préférant signer un accord avec son allié iranien mais surtout pour conserver ses échanges énergétiques sur le long terme avec la Russie. Ainsi, en juillet 2011, un contrat fut signé entre l'Iran, l'Irak et la Syrie en vue de construire un gazoduc d'ici 2016 afin d'acheminer le gaz naturel du gigantesque champ gazier iranien, jusqu'à la côte syrienne en Méditerranée (voir carte). De plus, Gazprom, le géant russe, pourrait aussi devenir un investisseur et un exploitant majeur des réserves de gaz, et même de pétrole, qui sont sur le point d'être découvertes dans des zones au large de la Syrie et du Liban...

Le Qatar et l'Arabie Saoudite rêvent toujours de voir un pouvoir sunnite à Damas qui relancerait le projet du gazoduc qatari. Mais pour l'heure, le régime d'Assad tient toujours bon et la politique énergé-tique de Moscou semble marquer des points, notamment dans la région. Certes, l'Europe -qui est en grande partie dépendant de Gazprom pour ses besoins énergétiques- se voit obligée d'appuyer le jeu du Qatar dans la région afin de diversifier ses sources et de diminuer sa facture de gaz. De plus, les investissements qataris en Europe, et surtout en France, sont importants.

La France et les autres pays européens devront tenir compte de ces enjeux dans leurs choix straté-giques au Moyen-Orient, faute de quoi, ils pourraient perdre encore de précieux points d'indépen-dance énergétique et donc diplomatique.

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ENERGIES SPECIAL UNION EUROPEENNE

EU Commissioner: Ukraine Could Transit Gas from Slovakia

(Source FeedDemon)

European Commissioner for Energy Guenther Oettinger has suggested that Ukraine could transit its gas from Slovakia within a matter of months.

"I expect that next spring the corridor for reverse gas transit through Slovakia will be open," the Euro-pean official said in an interview with Ukrainian national newspaper Kommersant-Ukraine published yesterday. Currently, this reverse-transit option exists from Poland and Hungary, he pointed out.

Mr. Oettinger also said that the European Union was ready to step into an ongoing dispute about gas prices between Russia and Ukraine should Ukraine want it to.

"We are receiving certain information and giving certain advice, but no more than that," he said. "A decision on bringing another participant into the negotiations is possible, but that is [Ukraine's] pre-rogative."

Russia and Ukraine have been involved in several disputes about gas pricing, the latest of which re-lates to the prices charged by Gazprom to Naftogaz Ukrainy. On Saturday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said that his country would not pay for gas not supplied to it by Gazprom in 2012.

"We told them we had considered this $7 billion [charge] unreasonable and would not pay them [that amount]," he said. The prime minister also said that gas pricing and contracts must be renegotiated with Russia by the end of this year, which would bring to a close a dispute that has been running since 2009.

The dispute relates to a gas price agreed by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Ms. Tymoshenko has since been jailed for seven years in relation to the deal on a charge of abuse of po-wer.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain ongoing with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanuko-vych yesterday meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the issue. However, at the time of writing, no deal had been struck.

15

ENERGIES SPECIAL ROYAUME UNI

Ed Davey defends green deal interest rates (Source FeedDemon)

Ed Davey, the energy and climate change secretary, defended the government's green deal loan scheme on Tuesday, saying the interest rates of around 7% for householders to undertake energy efficiency works are not excessive.

The flagship scheme, launched in January, allows householders to repay long-term loans for installing up to 40 different energy saving technologies via their electricity bills. But it was widely criticised at its launch for failing to provide enough incentives for the householder and for being overly complex.

"I would not expect many people to apply for finance yet. It's a bit too early," said Davey. "I won't con-cede that loan costs are too high. You have to compare it with unsecured loan and not mortgages. This is a great deal," he told delegates at Ecobuild, a sustainable building show in London.

"We are not trying to pretend that we have everything right. There will be issues to address. We will be responsive to get rid of the niggles," he said.

Davey fuelled rumours that the scheme had been poorly taken up by the public, citing "legal reasons" for not disclosing how many households had so far asked for assessments on the energy efficiency of their homes or the number of people who had applied for loans.

"Our plan is to issue monthly reports starting this spring," he said.

Instead, he claimed that industry was fully supportive, with 40 companies now approved as green deal "providers" and 75 organisations registered as "assessors". In addition, he said, 600 installers had now been trained.

"There is already a good pipeline of work, good signs of momentum," he said. "Assessors are there in big numbers and increasing all the time."

He predicted that by 2015, more than 1m separate pieces of home improvement under the green deal would have been installed.

"There is a huge business opportunity for green growth and jobs. [We estimate] there could be 136,000 jobs in energy efficiency with the numbers rising 5% a year. Eight million homes need solid wall insulation, 6m could get more loft insulation."

But the former senior civil servant Richard McCarthy, director for central government at Capita Sy-monds, said the government should try to make it easier for people to understand.

"Perception is all. Not enough people truly understand what the green deal is about and don't see the incentive. Myths and fears need to be dispelled. There are real benefits but these need explaining. It needs to be easier to navigate.

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"The relative cost of the loans is higher than most mortgages. People are challenged by the numbers. It adds fuel to their fears of taking up more debt. More credit checks are occurring. You can unders-tand, but there's the creeping [idea] that this will make it harder for some householders to access fi-nance. There is more room to be flexible and to bring costs down," he said.

Tim Pollard, head of sustainability at Wolseley, which owns Plumb Centre and has so far trained more than 50 installers, said: "The perception has been wrong. People are beginning to understand. But there is still a large gap. Nobody I know was expecting a tsunami of demand. Demand is encoura-ging."

Others said that the loans were too expensive. "Green deal will pay back over time. But some people may get funds cheaper. People can't see that they will get a good deal like they did with the feed-in tariffs for solar energy," said one installer who asked not to be named.

The industry was divided on the initial take up. "It is delivering. Based on the feedback we have had, it has changed the nature of the conversation about energy efficiency," said Paul King, chief executive of the Green Building Council. "There is a very live discussion about the creation of a new industry with the potential of 26 million customers in the UK. It is possible to see an explosion of interest in a few years' time."

But King called on government to provide industry and householders with better incentives, including home taxes based on the energy efficiency of homes, and certainty about building regulations in the next few years. "The challenge is how do we rebuild Britain for 2050," he said.

However, some small companies said they feared that green deal would undermine their businesses.

Stephen Bull, who runs a plumbing and heating firm with 2,000 customers in London, said that the green deal scheme was complex, expensive for small builders to take part in, and could undermine his business.

"We want to make sure we don't get left behind and I want to become an installer. But it seems to be a very much a top-down approach, set up by big business for big business. It seems only suitable for them. We could actually lose our clients to big multinational companies.

"In principle the idea is good and I want it to work. But even if I become a green deal installer, I would not necessarily get the work from my existing clients. I am struggling to understand it."

Scottish finance figures spark row over North Sea oil and indepen-dence

(Source FeedDemon)

The Scottish independence movement has seized on new figures showing that Scotland's pub-lic finances were stronger than the UK's after a bumper year for North Sea oil income.

John Swinney, the Scottish finance secretary, said the annual Scottish public spending report showed that with a full geographic share of North Sea revenues in 2011-12, the overall balance of payments was relatively better than the UK's as a whole by some £845 a person in that year.

The Scottish National party and the Yes Scotland independence campaign said the new figures, re-leased on Wednesday, again showed that leaving the UK would make Scotland a comparatively wealthier country.

But that claim was vigorously contested by their opponents.

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The pro-UK parties said an internal Scottish government economy paper, leaked to the pro-UK Better Together campaign, had proved that ministers had admitted in private oil revenues were a volatile and unreliable source of income.

An independent Scotland could put its oil income into a reserve fund, but it would require further public spending cuts and greater spending on quangos and government bureaucracy, while it needed to spend more money in future to support Scotland's more rapidly ageing population.

The paper admitted that the UK Treasury and Department for Work and Pensions helped absorb sharp swings in tax incomes: "This will imply more volatility in overall spending than at present. [This] also implies a degree of uncertainty in revenue and therefore in public finances, requiring a higher degree of resilience and innovative planning."

The document, written for the Scottish cabinet, said its finances under independence would be more volatile, would be worse off than the UK in 2016-17, when its share of UK tax revenues would fall to 8.8%, and have a significant debt burden – inherited from the UK – which it would need to manage.

The official government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) statistics showed that in 2011-12, if a full geographical share of North Sea oil and gas revenues was included, Scotland generated 9.9% of total UK revenues while taking 9.3% of total UK spending.

In four of the last five years, with a full geographical share of oil and gas revenues, Scotland was less in debt than the UK as a whole. That was a relative difference for Scotland of £12.6bn. Opinion polls have shown support for independence increases if voters think they will be £500 a year better off.

But the figures also confirmed that since 2007-08 Scotland's net fiscal balance varied considerably: even with a full share of oil and gas revenues, its deficit varied from a low of -2.6% to a high of -10.7%, or £14.5bn.

The Gers report confirmed that per capita, Scotland receives more per head on public spending than the UK average. While it had 8.4% of the UK's population, it received 9.3% of public spending, at £64.5bn.

Disregarding North Sea oil and gas income, which flows directly to the UK Treasury, Scotland's actual tax revenues were £46.3bn, or 8.2% of the total raised in the UK.

The pro-UK Better Together campaign said that taking the 13 years since devolution, that variation was even more extreme: in 1999, oil revenues fell to £2.5bn.

Swinney said this was clear evidence that independence was in Scotland's interests: "If Scotland had full control of our finances we could have invested in jobs and infrastructure, reduced Scotland's share of the deficit, invested in a stability fund or directly support households.

"[With] responsibility for our own finances and our own vast natural resources, we will be able to make choices in our own best interests. With independence, we would control the fiscal levers we need to suit our own economic circumstances, and maximise Scotland's potential to secure new investment and jobs."

Asked about the leaked economics paper, Swinney conceded that the volatility of oil income year on year meant financial uncertainties. "There would be economic challenges as there would be in any constitutional situation," he told the BBC.

"We are wrestling with economic and financial challenges today as part of the UK and most other countries are wrestling with these factors and of course an independent Scotland would have to ope-rate sustainable public finances and invest in the economy."

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Blair Jenkins, the chief executive of the pro-independence umbrella group Yes Scotland, said: "What these figures show is that Scotland has one of the best sets of national accounts of any country in the developed world. They also clearly underline that Scotland has got what it takes to be a strong, inde-pendent nation and that our future will be built on robust financial foundations."

Michael Moore, the Scottish secretary, said the success of the oil industry was heavily due to the UK government's support and investment, but it was still too unstable to provide long-term economic secu-rity.

"While the sector is valuable to our country the past decade has shown that the price of oil can be extremely volatile from year to year. This underlying volatility can be much better managed inside the larger UK, where oil and gas revenues represent a smaller percentage of overall tax revenues. Being part of a broader UK provides the stability and support that allows the industry to flourish," he said.

Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said: "Even in the good years we're running a deficit of £7.6bn, what would it be when the oil revenues drop?

"In a paper leaked this morning the Scottish National party's own finance secretary admitted that an independent Scotland would face a growing deficit, threats to public spending and downplayed the prospect of an oil fund.

"These latest figures prove the folly of relying on such a volatile source of income. As part of the UK, Scotland shares the risks and rewards."

Ken Macintosh, a senior Scottish Labour MSP, said: "Once again these figures show the benefit to all Scots of remaining part of the UK. We do not simply have a shared economy but also shared services, a shared pensions system and our largest trading partner is the rest of the UK. Our future is all the more secure because we share so much.

"The Gers figures reveal the folly of giving up on that shared stability for an uncertain economic future based on the unpredictable and declining resource of oil and gas."

GB: feu vert à Total pour redémarrer la plateforme Elgin

(Source FeedDemon)

Les autorités britanniques ont donné mercredi leur feu vert à un redémarrage de la plateforme pétrolière Elgin en mer du Nord, exploitée par le français Total, qui avait cessé sa production l'an dernier à la suite d'une fuite.

L'autorité de santé et de sécurité (HSE) a indiqué "avoir informé Total que son plan de sécurité pour l'installation Elgin a été accepté".

La plateforme avait été évacuée le 25 mars 2012 après la détection d'une fuite qui a relâché jusqu'à 200.000 m3 de gaz naturel par jour, sans provoquer de dégâts humains ni environnementaux, à l'ex-ception d'une émission accrue de gaz à effets de serre. Le puits défectueux à l'origine de cette fuite a été colmaté en mai.

Après cet accident, Total avait soumis aux autorités un nouveau plan de sécurité, un document né-cessaire pour que la production soit ré-autorisée.

"Il appartiendra désormais à Total de décider quand reprendre ses opérations", a souligné le HSE.

Interrogé par l'AFP, Total s'est contenté de confirmer cette autorisation, sans préciser à ce stade à quelle date l'activité pourrait reprendre sur le gisement.

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Le HSE ajoute que son enquête sur les circonstances de l'incident reste en cours.

ENERGIES SPECIAL ALLEMAGNE

Aide à l'énergie: Bruxelles va lancer une procédure contre l'Alle-magne (presse)

(Source FeedDemon)

La Commission européenne va lancer mercredi une procédure contre l'Allemagne accusée de dispenser les entreprises gourmandes en énergie du paiement de la contribution aux coûts de la transition énergétique liés à l'abandon du nucléaire, rapporte le Handelsblatt.

Le quotidien économique, qui cite des sources proches du gouvernement allemand, indique que la direction générale de la Concurrence de la Commission considère ces exemptions comme des aides publiques.

Selon le journal allemand, la somme économisée cette année par les entreprises concernées s'élève-ra, d'après les estimations, à quelque 300 millions d'euros.

En décembre dernier, le magazine Spiegel avait rapporté que plusieurs centaines d'entreprises domiciliées en Allemagne, parmi lesquelles la chaîne de fast food McDonald's, bénéficient d'une exonération ou de baisses de charges de ce type.

Selon l'hebdomadaire, cet avantage leur a été consenti pour préserver leur compétitivité face à la concurrence internationale.

ENERGIES SPECIAL FRANCE

France -énergie : la concurrence bénéficie aux particuliers (Source FeedDemon)

Le bilan du régulateur en charge du gaz et de l'électricité montre le poids des opérateurs histo-riques. Presque six ans après l'ouverture du marché de l'énergie aux particuliers (depuis le 1er juillet 2007), les résultats sont pour le moins contrastés. Si la concurrence se développe dans le domaine du gaz, elle se répand beaucoup moins vite dans l'électricité.

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L'Observatoire des marchés de la Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE), publié mercredi, il-lustre cette tendance: au 31 décembre 2012, 1,2 million de foyers - sur un total de 10,6 millions - ont quitté GDF Suez au profit d'un fournisseur alternatif, soit 11,3 %. Dans l'électricité, en revanche, moins de 7 % des sites, soit 2,1 millions sur un total de 30,8 millions, ont quitté les tarifs réglementés propo-sés par EDF. Cette concurrence timide évolue «à un rythme plutôt stable», selon la CRE, avec 75.000 clients supplémentaires en offre de marché à la fin du quatrième trimestre 2012, contre 79.000 au troisième trimestre.

Non seulement l'électricien tricolore défend solidement ses positions, mais il en renforce d'autres puisqu'il est devenu le premier fournisseur alternatif dans le gaz, avec 782.000 clients fin 2012 - contre 618.920 en 2011. En sens inverse, GDF Suez s'est largement renforcé dans l'électricité. «De telle façon que si l'on excepte les gains d'EDF dans le gaz et ceux de GDF Suez dans l'électricité, ce sont moins de 5 % des consommateurs particuliers qui ont opté pour un opérateur nouvel entrant, observe Fabien Choné, directeur général délégué de Poweo Direct Énergie, autant dire que la concur-rence est quasiment inexistante.»

Commission européenne

La situation peut-elle évoluer au cours des mois qui viennent? Au regard de la CRE, malgré la relative modicité des prix de l'électricité et du gaz naturel sur les marchés, «la structure et les niveaux de prix des tarifs réglementés de vente restreignent le périmètre de développement des fournisseurs alterna-tifs». Ces derniers, qui espèrent que la Commission européenne stigmatisera tôt ou tard le mode de calcul des tarifs réglementés français, savent pourtant être compétitifs.

Le régulateur a fait les comptes, certaines des offres des nouveaux entrants sur les marchés du gaz et de l'électricité sont sensiblement plus intéressantes que les prix réglementés: pour un client type se chauffant au gaz, le gain peut atteindre 8 %, soit environ 130 euros par an. Dans l'électricité, le chiffre s'élève à 5 %, soit une diminution annuelle de 60 euros par rapport aux tarifs réglementés. Conclusion du régulateur: «L'exercice de la concurrence présente donc un réel intérêt économique.»

Pour Fabien Choné, «la totale absence de communication des pouvoirs publics sur l'ouverture du marché et les bénéfices que peuvent en retirer les consommateurs» sont une autre raison de l'immo-bilisme actuel: «Seulement un Français sur deux sait qu'il peut changer de fournisseur dans l'éner-gie.» Il est difficile, dans ces conditions, d'espérer un retournement de situation.

21

MINES

OR

Or: toujours pas de reprise du côté des ETF.

(Source FeedDemon)

Au terme du premier fixing de ce mercredi sur le marché de Londres, l'once d'or cotait 1.574 dollars (- 5,75 dollars par rapport au fixing d'hier après-midi) et 1.208 euros (- 4,2 euros).

En février, l'once a terminé selon les cours de Londres en baisses de 76,2 dollars ou 4,6% à 1.588,5 dollars, et de 13,3 euros ou - 1,1% à 1.213,6 euros l'once.

Dans sa revue mensuelle des métaux précieux, ScotiaMocatta propose un résumé de «l'épisode pré-cédent» : selon ces spécialistes, 'les prix de l'or et de l'argent ont continué à baisser en février alors que la liquidation de positions longues par les fonds d'investissement a pesé sur le sentiment de mar-ché'. Les liquidations d'ETF aurifères ont été massives fin février, mais ScotiaMocatta notent qu'elles se situaient en fin de mois seulement 4% en-dessous de leur niveau record (qui date de fin dé-cembre). En outre, les perspectives macroéconomiques mondiales sont plus positives que dans un passé récent, ce qui tend ) pénaliser les valeurs refuge.

Mais 'il existe toujours d'impérieuses raisons de détenir de l'or', ajoute l'intermédiaire qui fait partie des intervenants du marché de Londres, 'principalement en raison des craintes de dévalorisation des de-vises fiduciaires' ('currency debasement'). 'Compte tenu des gigantesques dettes et des déficits aux-quels les économies avancées sont confrontées, nous nous attendons à ce que la monétisation de l'or prenne de la vitesse', indique encore ScotiaMocatta dans cette revue mensuelle qui développe des arguments fondamentaux, par opposition à l'analyse technique.

Il est vrai que les liquidations d'ETF aurifères continuent, selon l'indice compilé par Bloomberg : ce sont encore près de 275.000 onces qui ont été décaissées hier de ces produits financiers sur or prisés des investisseurs 'longs' ('j'achète, et j'attends'), dont le niveau est revenu à 80,1 millions d'onces. Cet indice ne fait pratiquement que baisser d'un jour sur l'autre depuis le début du mois de février. Il a baissé d'environ quatre millions d'onces depuis le début de l'année.

Chez MKS Asia, filiale asiatique du négociant et fondeur-affineur suisse éponyme, on note que l'once continue de se traiter dans une fourchette comprise entre 1.570 et 1.585 dollars, sans grande convic-tion. Mais si les ETF se tassent, la demande physique de la région asiatique continue de soutenir les

22

prix, rapportent-ils. En outre, il semble que la banque centrale de Corée du Sud soit sur le point d'ajouter 20 tonnes d'or à son stock monétaire, souligne MKS Asia.

Autre indicateur de la demande physique, cette fois aux Etats-Unis et alentours, l'US Mint a déjà ven-du 13.000 onces de pièces d'or au soir du 5 mars, chiffre grosso modo en ligne avec ceux de février. Pour mémoire, le mois dernier, l'US Mint, l'atelier monétaire fédéral américain, a vendu pour 80.500 onces de pièces, contre 21.000 en février 2012.

D'un point de vue technique, ScotiaMocatta estime que gain symbolique enregistré au terme de la séance de la veille sur le marché au comptant est 'non significatif' et qu'il s'inscrit toujours dans une tendance baissière. Prochain support à surveiller de près : les 1.555 dollars.