Not all no-decisions Not all no-decisions are created equal:are created equal:Evaluating a little-Evaluating a little-

examined examined pseudo statisticpseudo statistic

Gilbert D. MartinezSABR 41

Long Beach, CaliforniaJuly 8, 2011

BackgroundBackground

In 2009, it seemed like Houston Astros pitcher

Roy Oswalt had a no decision in every game he pitched

Of course, he didn’t, but he did compile 16, a franchise record

Made me wonder – Which starting pitcher had the most no decisions in a season? Which starting pitcher is the all-time leader in no decisions?

Easy – just check Baseball-Reference.com and I’d have my answers

Not so easy, not so fastNot so easy, not so fast

There was no quick and easy way (that I was aware of)

Baseball Reference is a tremendous resource that records all sorts of information – wins, losses, saves, holds, ERAs, BB, HBP, balks, even days of rest between starts

But not “no decisions”

RationaleRationale

I wanted to bolster the anecdotal evidence about lucky or unlucky pitchers

–ND: A lucky pitcher would be one who left a game while trailing and was saved by his team (got him off the hook for a loss) – meaning, a less effective pitcher

+ND: An unlucky pitcher would be one who left while leading, but because of a poor bullpen, bad defense and/or inadequate offense, he’d miss a chance for a win – meaning, a more effective pitcher

RationaleRationale

Neutral ND: A pitcher leaves in a tie game (neither lucky nor unlucky)

By determining the season leaders in no decisions and career leaders in no decisions, we may learn more about a pitcher’s effectiveness

This may provide more insight about pitchers and confirm or refute anecdotal evidence about their effectiveness

MethodologyMethodology

Baseball Reference’s Play Index (1901-2010)Games Started – (Wins + Losses) = No

DecisionsBut I had to account for pitchers who got

decisions in relief appearances, which were subtracted from the total wins and losses

For the career leaders, same formula; again, I had to determine number of relief appearances that resulted in decisions and subtract from the total number of wins and losses

MethodologyMethodology

If a starting pitcher left a game with runners on, I determined –ND, +ND or Neutral ND based on the runners he was responsible for

So, a starting pitcher who left with two runners on would be charged with those runs if they scored

MethodologyMethodology

For season totals, I looked at all seasons from 1901-2010

For career totals, I looked at all pitchers with at least 174 game starts

For seasons earlier than 1919, I had a friend check The Baseball Encyclopedia (10th Edition) for decisions that resulted from relief appearances and subtracted those from the total number of decisions

Single Season LeadersSingle Season LeadersBert Blyleven had the most, with 20 in

197937 starts – (12 wins + 5 losses) = 2054.1% of his starts resulted in no decisions9 –ND (left the game trailing)4 +ND (left the game leading)7 Neutral ND (left in a tie)Four times he didn’t go the minimum (3 –

ND, 1 Neutral ND)

Single season leadersSingle season leaders

Second most: 18 no decisions by Andy Hawkins in 1986

35 starts – (10 wins + 8 losses) = 17Adjusted to 18 (51.4%)5 –ND7 +ND6 Neutral NDHe didn’t go the minimum in three starts,

all –ND

Single season leadersSingle season leaders

Two players had 17 no decisions in a season: Oliver Perez of the New York Mets in 2008 and Kenny Rogers, who pitched for the Oakland A’s and New York Mets in 1999

Single season leadersSingle season leadersSeven players had 16 no decisions in a season:

◦Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros in 2009◦Joba Chamberlain of the New York Yankees in

2009◦Randy Wolf of the Milwaukee Brewers in 2009◦Eric Milton of the Minnesota Twins in 1999◦Juan Guzman of the Toronto Blue Jays in 1993◦Randy Jones of the San Diego Padres in 1979◦John Montefusco of the San Francisco Giants in

1978

Single season leadersSingle season leaders

23 pitchers had 15 no decisions in a season45 pitchers had 14 in a season96 had 13 in a season147 had 12 in a season7 had 11 in a season13 had 10 in a season

Effective pitchersEffective pitchers

I examined the circumstances in which a pitcher left a game for those with 15 no decisions or more

Of those, Pedro Astacio (9-8 with the Dodgers in 1996) was the most impressive

7 +ND, 7 Neutral ND = 14 times he left a game with a lead or a tie but didn’t figure in the decision

Most unlucky, but very effective

Effective pitchersEffective pitchers

Jim Deshaies (7-12 with the Astros in 1990)4 +ND, 9 Neutral ND = 13 times he left a

game with a lead or a tieJohn Montefusco (11-9 with the Giants in

1978): 3 +ND, 12 Neutral ND = 15 times he left with a lead or in a tie game

Only 1 –ND, and he didn’t go the minimum in that game

Least effectiveLeast effective

Of those with 15 no decisions or more, who was the luckiest (or least effective)?

Bert Blyleven (Pirates 1979), 9 –NDAfter that, Joba Chamberlain (Yankees

2009), 7 –ND, Masato Yoshii (Mets 1998), 7 –ND, and Andy Hawkins (Padres 1986), 7 –ND

By percentagesBy percentages

By percentage of game starts, most got no decisions in about 45 percent of their starts

Highest: Rogers (1999), 54.8% Blyleven (1979), 54.1%Oswalt (2009), 53.3%

By percentagesBy percentages

Elarton (2004), Yoshii (1998), Darling (1993), 51.7%

Chamberlain (2009), 51.6%Hawkins (1986), 51.4%Dessens (2002), Perez (2008), Mlicki (1998)

and Hamilton (1995), 50%

By the decadesBy the decades

Career no-decisionsCareer no-decisions

Highest number of no decisions in a career

Tommy John (288-231) had 188 no decisions in 700 starts (26.9% of his starts were no decisions)

Don Sutton (324-256) had 182 no decisions in 756 starts (24.1%)

Tom Glavine (305-203) had 174 no decisions in 682 starts (25.5%)

Roger Clemens (354-184) had 169 no decisions in 707 starts (23.9%)

Career no-decisionsCareer no-decisionsJamie Moyer (355-227) had 167 no

decisions in 628 starts (26.6%)Nolan Ryan (324-292) had 164 no decisions

in 773 starts (21.2%)Bert Blyleven (287-250) had 161 no

decisions in 685 starts (23.5%)Greg Maddux (355-227) had 159 no

decisions in 740 starts (21.5%)Jerry Reuss (220-191) had 150 no decisions

in 547 starts (27.4%)

Career no-decisionsCareer no-decisions

Career no-decisionsCareer no-decisions

76 players (with at least 174 game starts) got no decisions in 30.0% or more of the games they started

Only 4 players got no decisions in 35.0% or more of their starts

Most players high on the list pitched in the 1970s or later

Why?Why?

In the early 20th century, starting pitchers threw more innings, perhaps making it more likely they’d get a decision

Nowadays, with specialty bullpen pitchers, it’s less likely that a starting pitcher will go the distance

Managerial decisions might also play a role: pitchers removed before tying run comes to the plate (more likely to happen now than in early 20th century)

Future researchFuture research

Go through the single seasons with 14, 13, 12, etc., no decisions to determine +ND, –ND and Neutral ND

Do the same for career numbers to determine who among the pitchers with the most no decisions or highest percentage of no decisions were more/less effective, or unlucky/lucky

Examine what a team’s total NDs say about a team’s overall effectiveness

Baseball ReferenceBaseball Reference

A suggestion for Baseball Reference:Perhaps they can add single-season no-

decision totals and career no-decision totals to their data

Adding this statistic tells us a little more about these pitchers that a simple win-loss record does not

We could call it the GDMNDIN: Gilbert D. Martinez No Decision Index Number*

* just kidding – about the name, not the need for the statistic

Special ThanksSpecial Thanks

To Cy Morong (author of Cybermetrics, a baseball blog: cybermetric.blogspot.com) and Monte Cely, who both provided invaluable feedback and assistance

To my baseball buddies in the Rogers Hornsby Chapter in Austin and San Antonio, Texas

And to you for your kind attentionQuestions?