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Northwest Independent School District

Quarterly Report 1Q15

Economic Conditions – DFW MSA (March 2015)

DFW Unemployment Rate • U.S. 5.6%

• Texas 4.2% • DFW MSA 4.0% • Tarrant County 4.1% • Fort Worth 4.1%

-1.3%

DFW Job Growth

• 115,800 new jobs created • 1.8% above the national rate

3.6%

Annual Starts DFW MSA

• 1,369 more than previous year over year

23,740

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

Texas Enrollment Trends 2014/15 State Enrollment

Total Enrollment 5,232,065 Total Growth 80,140

4,399,019

4,519,164 4,592,849

4,671,493 4,749,571

4,847,844 4,933,617

4,998,579 5,075,840

5,151,925 5,232,065

3,800,0004,000,0004,200,0004,400,0004,600,0004,800,0005,000,0005,200,0005,400,000

Total State Enrollment

120,145

73,685

78,644

78,078

98,273 85,773

64,962

77,261

76,085

80,140

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000Enrollment Change

3

Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends

4

Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends

Rank District 2009/10

Enrollment 2014/15

Enrollment 5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15)

5-YEAR PCT

Growth 1 Frisco ISD 33,973 49,644 15,671 46.1% 2 Richardson ISD 34,843 38,618 3,775 10.8% 3 Prosper ISD 3,637 7,074 3,437 94.5% 4 Dallas ISD 157,111 160,253 3,142 2.0% 5 Mesquite ISD 37,272 40,273 3,001 8.1% 6 Allen ISD 18,242 20,664 2,422 13.3% 7 Wylie ISD (Collin) 12,063 14,039 1,976 16.4% 8 Grand Prairie ISD 26,395 28,340 1,945 7.4% 9 Coppell ISD 9,982 11,570 1,588 15.9%

10 Irving ISD 33,679 35,191 1,512 4.5% 11 Forney ISD 7,813 8,995 1,182 15.1% 12 Rockwall ISD 13,843 14,992 1,149 8.3% 13 Waxahachie ISD 6,924 7,968 1,044 15.1% 14 McKinney ISD 23,933 24,811 878 3.7% 15 Lancaster ISD 6,176 7,052 876 14.2% 16 Princeton ISD 2,996 3,790 794 26.5% 17 Melissa ISD 1,378 2,119 741 53.8% 18 Highland Park ISD (Dallas) 6,448 7,091 643 10.0% 19 Anna ISD 2,246 2,874 628 28.0% 20 Royse City ISD 4,450 5,070 620 13.9%

Region 10 Region 11 Rank DISTRICT

2009/10 Enrollment

2014/15 Enrollment

5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15)

5-YEAR PCT

Growth 1 Fort Worth ISD 80,209 85,975 5,766 7.2% 2 Northwest ISD 14,164 19,831 5,667 40.0% 3 Denton ISD 22,825 27,020 4,195 18.4% 4 Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD 16,126 18,659 2,533 15.7% 5 Lewisville ISD 50,840 53,356 2,516 4.9% 6 Keller ISD 31,569 33,619 2,050 6.5% 7 Mansfield ISD 31,662 33,410 1,748 5.5% 8 Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD 20,762 22,416 1,654 8.0% 9 Birdville ISD 22,897 24,389 1,492 6.5%

10 Burleson ISD 9,896 10,983 1,087 11.0% 11 Little Elm ISD 6,112 6,950 838 13.7% 12 White Settlement ISD 6,051 6,664 613 10.1% 13 Everman ISD 5,053 5,543 490 9.7% 14 Krum ISD 1,613 2,064 451 28.0% 15 Aledo ISD 4,589 5,037 448 9.8% 16 Castleberry ISD 3,641 4,076 435 11.9% 17 Aubrey ISD 1,784 2,213 429 24.0% 18 Arlington ISD 63,487 63,882 395 0.6% 19 Brock ISD 854 1,175 321 37.6% 20 Azle ISD 5,841 6,156 315 5.4%

5

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 1Q15

*Adjusted based on additional Templeton Demographics Research (Added futures for Entrada and Harvest developments)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,810 2,649 3,928 6,793 2 Denton ISD 1,719 1,690 2,403 14,699 3 Northwest ISD 1,104 1,253 1,553 *26,115 4 Prosper ISD 1,396 1,215 2,517 28,171 5 Keller ISD 959 1,009 1,225 2,852 6 Dallas ISD 1,001 894 1,977 6,110 7 Lewisville ISD 1,000 873 2,467 2,888 8 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD 781 794 1,692 18,713 9 Rockwall ISD 704 612 1,676 8,353

10 McKinney ISD 527 594 1,287 6,390 11 Little Elm ISD 670 585 1,530 5,067 12 Allen ISD 583 577 926 1,348 13 Mansfield ISD 519 540 1,174 5,473 14 Forney ISD 504 532 879 12,521 15 Crowley ISD 487 482 1,373 8,854 16 Plano ISD 431 434 1,068 1,679 17 Burleson ISD 355 412 722 3,755 18 Garland ISD 377 409 766 4,029 19 Wylie ISD 433 392 803 4,254 20 Midlothian ISD 404 380 996 20,484

6

New Housing Activity 1Q15

• 1Q15 starts slowed after an extremely strong 2014 • 1Q closings are up 8.92% over the first quarter of last year • Inventory and starts are likely to rise after a strong quarter of closings

Northwest ISD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 297 230 251 288 358 239 1Q 229 224 220 225 269 293 2Q 357 268 293 362 282 2Q 349 230 331 318 341 3Q 264 285 286 347 347 3Q 348 263 332 299 346 4Q 204 254 257 270 236 4Q 277 295 258 344 273

Total 1,122 1,037 1,087 1,267 1,223 239 Total 1,203 1,012 1,141 1,186 1,229 293

7

Annual Closing Distribution 1Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank Subdivision Annual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL

1 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 101 18 104 2 Harmon Ranch 100 23 57 3 Fairways of Champions Circle 89 16 0 4 Briarwyck (Roanoke) 74 16 23 5 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 74 20 80 6 Tehama Ridge 68 18 0 7 Seventeen Lakes 67 12 40 8 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 64 13 106 9 Trails of Fossil Creek 60 20 43

10 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview) 54 10 45 TOTALS 751 166 498

8

Vacant Developed Lots 1Q15

Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 0 170 476 2 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 64 106 3,695 3 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 101 104 0 4 Avery Ranch 12 97 0 5 Dorado Ranch 52 84 0 6 Chadwick Farms 16 83 87 7 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 74 80 403 8 Harmon Ranch 100 57 364 9 Reatta Ridge Addition 0 57 99

10 Highlands Glen 19 55 0 TOTALS 438 893 5,124

9

Future Lots 1Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Tradition 0 4,517 2 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 106 3,695 3 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 37 2,747 4 McKelvey Ranch 0 2,000 5 Wellington 0 1,622 6 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) 0 1,162 7 Berkshire 0 808 8 Harvest 0 650 9 Shale Creek 4 600

10 Trails of Fossil Creek 43 587 TOTALS 190 18,388

10

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

*Adjusted based on additional Templeton Demographics Research (Added futures for Entrada (10) and Harvest (650) developments)

Elementary Zone Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future Lots

BECK 101 22 127 28 54 171 102 CLARA LOVE 0 0 0 0 0 1 311 COX 157 38 156 43 71 199 966 GRANGER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HASLET 37 7 24 12 22 78 1,135 HATFIELD 81 7 114 18 14 3 8,025 HUGHES 62 14 62 15 29 43 137 JUSTIN 39 13 31 15 21 193 1,191 LAKEVIEW 86 18 108 18 38 98 129 NANCE 70 9 84 25 15 49 1,887 PETERSON 164 30 215 51 47 96 527 PRAIRIE VIEW 3 0 24 2 1 28 786 ROANOKE 66 7 74 16 16 223 869 SCHLUTER 152 58 126 30 96 176 3,334 SENDERA RANCH 60 8 64 13 26 106 3,695 SEVEN HILLS 22 7 28 6 9 52 274 THOMPSON 4 1 16 1 2 37 2,747

Grand Total 1,104 239 1,253 293 461 1,553 *26,115

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Active Subdivision Fairway Ranch – City of Roanoke

Fairway Ranch • 498 total lots • 29 occupied lots • 382 future lots • 60 vacant developed lots • 51 annual starts • 17 under construction • 13 current students

9 elementary 2 middle school 2 high school

• .45 student yield per home • Cox Elementary

12

Active Subdivision Sendera Ranch – City of Haslet

Sendera Ranch Overall • 9,190 total lots • 2,512 occupied lots • 6,441 future lots • 143 vacant developed lots • 86 annual starts • 22 under construction • 2,197 current students

1,122 elementary 565 middle school 510 high school

• .87 student yield per home

Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch Elementary Zone)

• 5,145 total lots • 1,382 occupied lots • 3,695 future lots • 106 vacant developed lots

Sendera Ranch (Thompson Elementary Zone)

• 3,994 total lots • 1,144 occupied lots • 2,747 future lots • 37 vacant developed lots

13

Future Subdivision Wellington – City of Ft. Worth

Wellington • 1,622 total lots • 1,622 total futures • 615 acres • Preliminary Plat approved • Developer anticipates dirt

work starting in 4Q15 • First residents anticipated

in 1Q17 • $250K-$350K • Schluter Elementary

14

Active Subdivision Berkshire – City of Ft. Worth

NISD/EMS-ISD BOUNDARY LINE

Berkshire • 808 total lots • 808 future lots • Estimated absorption rates:

• 2015 = 75 • 2016 = 192 • 2017 = 192 • 2018 = 192 • 2019 = 138

• Developer will deliver first 299 lots in July

• First residents expected in 4Q15 • $275K-$350K • Small number of lots (15-20) fall

within Eagle-Mountain-Saginaw ISD • Nance Elementary

15

Future Subdivision Regal Ridge Estates – City of Haslet

Regal Ridge Estates • 84 total lots • 84 total futures • Preliminary Plat approved • Haslet Elementary

16

Enrollment History

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Student Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2010/11 294 1,284 1,308 1,308 1,284 1,207 1,219 1,230 1,127 1,111 1,210 1,113 931 744 15,370 2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,626 1,256 8.2% 2012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1% 2013/14 301 1,485 1,545 1,512 1,514 1,529 1,517 1,479 1,489 1,457 1,489 1,334 1,232 1,067 18,950 1,139 6.4% 2014/15 311 1,550 1,538 1,618 1,596 1,553 1,557 1,550 1,521 1,541 1,595 1,481 1,275 1,145 19,831 881 4.6%

Year (Oct.) Total

Black or African

American % Hispanic %

American Indian or

Alaska Native % Asian % White %

Two or more races %

Native Hawaiian/

Other Pacific Islander %

2010/11 15,370 965 6.3% 2,867 18.7% 119 0.8% 431 2.8% 10,685 69.5% 282 1.8% 21 0.1% 2011/12 16,626 1,086 6.5% 3,225 19.4% 117 0.7% 461 2.8% 11,352 68.3% 360 2.2% 25 0.2% 2012/13 17,811 1,111 6.2% 3,502 19.7% 110 0.6% 506 2.8% 12,127 68.1% 432 2.4% 23 0.1% 2013/14 18,950 1,201 6.3% 3,800 20.1% 107 0.6% 558 2.9% 12,777 67.4% 481 2.5% 26 0.1% 2014/15 19,831 1,263 6.4% 3,974 20.0% 102 0.5% 602 3.0% 13,333 67.2% 525 2.6% 32 0.2%

Year (Oct.) Economically

Disadvantaged % ED 2010/11 3,553 23.1% 2011/12 3,909 23.5% 2012/13 4,126 23.2% 2013/14 3,606 19.0% 2014/15 3,394 17.1%

HISPANIC/LATINO, 3,974 , 20%

AM. INDIAN/ALASKA

NATIVE, 102 , 1% ASIAN, 602 , 3%

BLACK, 1,263 , 6%

HAWAIIAN/PACIFIC ISLANDER, 32 ,

0%

WHITE, 13,333 , 67%

MORE THAN 1, 525 , 3%

2014/15 STUDENT RACE/ETHNICITY TOTALS

17

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

• Northwest ISD will reach 20,000 enrollment in the fall of 2015. • 5 year growth = 5,249 students • 2019/20 enrollment = 25,080 students • 10 year growth = 11,866 students • 2024/25 enrollment = 31,697 students

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2010/11 294 1,284 1,308 1,308 1,284 1,207 1,219 1,230 1,127 1,111 1,210 1,113 931 744 15,370 2011/12 301 1,383 1,391 1,407 1,368 1,331 1,291 1,317 1,281 1,190 1,278 1,210 1,013 865 16,626 1,256 8.2% 2012/13 300 1,448 1,465 1,448 1,466 1,433 1,402 1,400 1,375 1,325 1,344 1,302 1,153 950 17,811 1,185 7.1% 2013/14 301 1,485 1,545 1,512 1,514 1,529 1,517 1,479 1,489 1,457 1,489 1,334 1,232 1,067 18,950 1,139 6.4% 2014/15 311 1,550 1,538 1,618 1,596 1,553 1,557 1,550 1,521 1,541 1,595 1,481 1,275 1,145 19,831 881 4.6% 2015/16 311 1,586 1,633 1,592 1,687 1,649 1,613 1,619 1,609 1,592 1,752 1,598 1,366 1,191 20,798 967 4.9% 2016/17 311 1,634 1,684 1,699 1,664 1,765 1,719 1,677 1,677 1,677 1,819 1,692 1,496 1,277 21,790 992 4.8% 2017/18 311 1,721 1,749 1,780 1,799 1,737 1,859 1,800 1,762 1,758 1,903 1,758 1,590 1,422 22,949 1,158 5.3% 2018/19 311 1,808 1,832 1,832 1,867 1,875 1,814 1,933 1,878 1,837 1,997 1,835 1,643 1,507 23,969 1,020 4.4% 2019/20 311 1,894 1,938 1,913 1,928 1,949 1,961 1,895 2,025 1,967 2,085 1,930 1,724 1,560 25,080 1,111 4.6% 2020/21 311 1,995 2,030 2,034 2,012 2,011 2,046 2,060 1,986 2,128 2,227 2,011 1,814 1,641 26,307 1,227 4.9% 2021/22 311 2,100 2,139 2,131 2,139 2,108 2,108 2,141 2,160 2,085 2,407 2,151 1,890 1,723 27,593 1,286 4.9% 2022/23 311 2,205 2,240 2,240 2,238 2,239 2,226 2,217 2,249 2,271 2,358 2,322 2,024 1,815 28,955 1,362 4.9% 2023/24 311 2,309 2,352 2,326 2,347 2,330 2,367 2,326 2,310 2,362 2,562 2,281 2,188 1,947 30,319 1,364 4.7% 2024/25 311 2,419 2,462 2,441 2,439 2,447 2,465 2,473 2,423 2,428 2,663 2,473 2,148 2,105 31,697 1,378 4.5%

DRAFT

18

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Beck Elementary 721 731 751 772 773 772 755 755 764 767 773 774 Clara Love Elementary 616 689 695 681 661 668 670 680 684 697 708 718 Cox Elementary 280 342 413 480 572 656 785 901 1045 1233 1390 1548 Granger Elementary 933 900 909 906 903 887 866 871 877 883 887 890 Haslet Elementary 457 407 404 374 357 357 364 370 386 406 426 448 Hatfield Elementary 452 411 440 493 571 652 767 871 969 1071 1175 1278 Hughes Elementary 517 547 541 562 582 600 617 643 674 703 738 775 Justin Elementary 492 507 504 507 528 543 562 586 611 634 659 683 Lakeview Elementary 552 571 597 640 672 682 713 720 729 736 741 747 Nance Elementary 479 457 464 474 496 523 554 586 616 647 675 702 Peterson Elementary 681 770 837 917 982 1014 1039 1046 1062 1099 1116 1139 Prairie View Elementary 447 452 450 470 483 498 522 543 565 586 607 631 Roanoke Elementary 699 731 731 735 770 791 803 836 870 904 950 993 Sendera Ranch Elementary 561 598 636 653 692 717 788 815 845 872 900 930 Seven Hills Elementary 571 560 569 581 589 584 593 607 619 631 648 662 Schluter Elementay 472 522 560 612 661 710 774 847 921 997 1071 1144 Thompson Elementary 473 528 569 621 665 685 722 762 798 835 876 922 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 9,403 9,723 10,071 10,476 10,956 11,339 11,894 12,439 13,036 13,699 14,342 14,984 Elementary Absolute Growth 441 320 348 404 480 383 555 545 597 663 643 642 Elementary Percent Growth 4.92% 3.40% 3.58% 4.02% 4.58% 3.50% 4.90% 4.58% 4.80% 5.08% 4.69% 4.48%

• Roanoke Elementary could reach 800 students in 2019 • Hatfield Elementary may reach 650 students in 2018 • Peterson Elementary enrollment is up 90 students from last year

DRAFT

19

Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Chisholm Trail Middle School 877 899 968 1,017 1,071 1,094 1,146 1,186 1,222 1,294 1,372 1,453 Gene Pike Middle School 772 743 739 732 804 845 875 922 1,005 1,084 1,150 1,222 Medlin Middle School 1,016 1,078 1,172 1,212 1,247 1,315 1,380 1,436 1,438 1,439 1,423 1,429 Tidwell Middle School 995 1,048 1,107 1,199 1,297 1,401 1,484 1,556 1,621 1,709 1,800 1,920 Wilson Middle School 765 844 834 871 901 993 1,002 1,074 1,100 1,211 1,253 1,300 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 4,425 4,612 4,820 5,031 5,320 5,648 5,887 6,174 6,386 6,737 6,998 7,324 Middle School Absolute Growth 325 187 208 211 289 328 239 287 212 351 261 326 Middle School Percent Growth 7.93% 4.23% 4.51% 4.38% 5.74% 6.17% 4.23% 4.88% 3.43% 5.50% 3.87% 4.66% Northwest High School 2,666 2,793 2,133 1,884 1,559 1,577 1,622 1,674 1,777 1,865 1,971 2,090 Byron Nelson High School 2,306 2,552 2,561 2,689 2,855 3,040 3,207 3,411 3,625 3,801 4,001 4,140 Eaton High School 1,058 1,557 2,106 2,212 2,317 2,456 2,615 2,700 2,854 3,006 Steele Accelerated High School 113 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 Denton County JJAEP 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Denton Creek 37 29 33 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 5,122 5,496 5,907 6,283 6,673 6,982 7,299 7,694 8,170 8,519 8,979 9,389 High School Absolute Growth 373 374 411 377 390 309 317 395 477 348 460 410 High School Percent Growth 7.85% 7.30% 7.47% 6.38% 6.20% 4.63% 4.54% 5.41% 6.20% 4.27% 5.40% 4.57% DISTRICT TOTALS 18,950 19,831 20,798 21,790 22,949 23,969 25,080 26,307 27,593 28,955 30,319 31,697 District Absolute Growth 1,139 881 967 992 1,158 1,020 1,111 1,227 1,286 1,362 1,364 1,378 District Percent Growth 6.4% 4.6% 4.9% 4.8% 5.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5%

DRAFT

• Chisholm Trail MS could reach 1,000 students in 2016 • Eaton High School may reach over 2,000 students in 2017

20

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

2022/23

2023/24

2024/25

9,403

9,723

10,071

10,476

10,956

11,339

11,894

12,439

13,036

13,699

14,342

14,984

4,425

4,612

4,820

5,031

5,320

5,648

5,887

6,174

6,386

6,737

6,998

7,324

5,122

5,496

5,907

6,283

6,673

6,982

7,299

7,694

8,170

8,519

8,979

9,389

Northwest ISD Enrollment Forecast

Forecast

History 18,950

20,798

25,080

31,697

21

Summary

• Texas unemployment has been below the national rate for 8 consecutive years.

• DFW will continue to be a leader in job and population growth by creating 115,800 jobs in the last 12 months.

• 1Q15 housing starts totaled 239, a 1.2% increase from 4Q14.

• Vacant Developed Lot supply is 1,553 which should allow the district to maintain or exceed the total number of 2015 housing starts.

• Peterson, Cox and Schluter have the highest activity of new home starts representing 42.8% of the total starts this quarter.

• NWISD can expect an increase of approximately 5,200 students during the next 5 years.

• 2019/20 enrollment projection: 25,080 students

• NWISD is projected to have over 31,697 students for the 2024/25 school year.

22