Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008

Northern Utah Human Resource Association

An Economic Update(U.S., Utah, Davis & Weber)

October 2008

The National Economic Context

U.S. Key Indicators:

Output – GDP Growth Est 3.3 % (2nd 2008)

Inflation – Up 2.9% (2007), 5.4% August 2008

Population 0.7 %Job Growth - 0.3 % (August 2008)

Unemployment 6.1% (August 2008)

Construction – Housing starts off 36% (Aug08)

Utah

Significant Slowing in the Economy – But for How Long?

Key Indicators:

PopulationJob GrowthUnemploymentAverage WagesConstruction

Population

Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007U.S. Rate = 1.0%

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country

< 0.9Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM1.5

UT2.4

AZ3.6

CA0.8

NV3.5

OR1.7

TX2.5

OK1.0

CO1.9

WA1.7

ID2.6

MT1.1

WY1.2

ND0.2

SD0.9

MN0.8

NE0.6

KS0.6

IA0.6

MO0.8

AR1.3

LA-4.9

WI0.5

IL0.5

IN0.8

OH0.1

FL 1.8

TN 1.4

KY0.8

MS0.1

AL1.1

GA2.5

SC

1.7

NC 2.1

VA1.0

WV0.2

PA0.3

NY0.0

ME0.3

AK1.0

HI1.0

MA0.1

VT0.2

NH0.6

RI-0.6

CT0.1

NJ0.2

DE1.4

MD0.5

MI-0.1

1.5 to 1.9

0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate)

2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)

Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 20.4%

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country

< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

20% to <40%

10% to <20%

> 40%

The United States PopulationIs Sparse in the Mountain Region

< 3 millionSource: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GASC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

6 to <15 million

3 to <6 million

> 15 million

Utah Population by County: 2007

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

Box Elder47,491

Cache109,022

Rich2,162

Weber220,781

Tooele56,536

Salt Lake1,018,904

Morgan9,265

Summit38,412

Daggett 969

Utah501,447

Wasatch21,951 Duchesne

16,163Uintah28,806

Juab9,654

Sanpete26,464

Carbon19,730

Emery10,461 Grand

9,125

Millard13,414

Piute1,385

Garfield4,872

Sevier20,442

Wayne2,635

San Juan14,807

Iron44,813

Beaver6,466

Washington140,908

Kane6,440

Davis296,029

State = 2,699,554

20,000 to 99,999

< 19,999

> 500,000

100,000 to 499,999

Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2006 to 2007


Box Elder3.3%

Cache3.2%

Rich1.9%

Weber2.3%

Tooele4.0%

Salt Lake2.3%

Morgan4.2%

Summit4.2%

Daggett 2.1%

Utah5.5%

Wasatch4.3% Duchesne

3.7%Uintah3.8%

Juab3.6%

Sanpete2.6%

Carbon1.2%

Emery0.2% Grand

1.1%

Millard1.4%

Piute0.9%

Garfield2.1%

Sevier2.3%

Wayne3.9%

San Juan1.1%

Iron3.2%

Beaver0.6%

Washington4.5%

Kane2.3%

Davis3.3%

State Average = 3.2%

Increase of 1.0% to 2.6%

Change of less than 1.0%

Increase of 4.0% or greater

Increase of 2.7% to 3.9%

Utah Components of Population Change


-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Per

son

s

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change

Job Growth

Strong Job Growth in Utah

Year Over Rate of Job Growth

1.3

0.3

1.1

3.9

1.6

1.0

3.1 3.03.2

5.4

6.2

5.6

5.1

4.2

3.0

2.4 2.5

0.6

0.0

2.8

4.0

5.2

3.9

0.5

-0.7

4.7 4.7

6.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

1960 to 2007 Average

3.3%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90 95 00

Year-Over Percent Change

In Non-farm Jobs

05

Utah

U.S.

9.6%7.3%

6.9%6.3%

5.6%5.2%5.2%5.1%5.0%

4.6%4.2%

4.0%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.6%3.5%

3.3%3.2%

3.0%2.6%2.5%

1.7%1.1%

-0.8%-1.8%

6.2%

12.0% Duchesne Wasatch

Uintah Piute

Morgan Summit Daggett

Utah Rich

Tooele Sanpete

Box Elder Grand

BeaverState Total

Cache San JuanWashingto Salt Lake

Garfield Juab

Weber Kane Davis

Sevier Wayne Millard

Iron Emery

Carbon

Annual 2006-2007 Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.

500

3,900

-800

2,400

6,500

400

3,800

-200

-12,800

3,200

200

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

Utah Nonfarm Industry ProfileNumeric Change in Employment

July 2007 – 2008


Prof., and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

One industry is largely clouding the entire picture.

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008

Overall

Housing-Related

Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Unemployment

Annual 2007 Unemployment Rates2.1%

2.2%2.2%

2.4%

2.5%

2.5%

2.6%

2.6%2.6%2.6%

2.7%

2.7%2.7%2.7%

2.7%2.8%2.8%

2.9%

3.1%3.1%

3.2%

3.2%

3.4%3.6%

3.7%

4.1%

4.7%4.8%

5.3%

2.5%

Cache

Rich

Uintah

Utah

Duchesne

Piute

Summit

Davis

Millard

Salt Lake

Statewide

Beaver

Iron

Morgan

Wasatch

Washington

Box Elder

Sevier

Tooele

Juab

Weber

Kane

Sanpete

Emery

Carbon

Daggett

Wayne

Grand

Garfield

San Juan

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Here in Davis and Weber Counties

Population

Davis & Weber County Population1989 to 2007

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Month & Year

Davis

Weber

Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008.

2000-2007 Growth RateDavis 3.3%Weber 1.7%State 2.9%

Employment

Davis & Weber County Monthly Jobs1989 to June 2008p

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,00089

J O J A92

J O J A95

J O J A98

J O J A01

J O J A04

J O J A07

J O

Month & Year

Davis

Weber

May 2001

p = preliminary.Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information October 2008.

Davis County Employment

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008

04 0605 07 08

Davis County Employment Growth Rates

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Davis County Year-Over Construction EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jan-

06

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

07

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

08

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008

Davis County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Jan-

06

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

07

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

08

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n


Weber County Employment

84,000

86,000

88,000

90,000

92,000

94,000

96,000

98,000

00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminarySource: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Weber County Employment Growth Rates

-2.3%

-1.3%

-0.3%

0.7%

1.7%

2.7%

3.7%

00 01 02 0399*2008 second quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Weber County Year-Over Construction EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jan-

06

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

07

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

08

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n


Weber County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Jan-

06

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

07

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

08

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n


Unemployment

Annual Unemployment Rates


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

U.S. Weber

Utah

Davis

3.2%

2.6%

4.5%

2.7%

State, Davis, and Weber Monthly Unemployment Rates*

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Jan2001

AprJulOctJan2002

AprJulOctJan2003

AprJulOctJan2004

AprJulOctJan2005

AprJulOctJan2006

AprJulOctJan2007

AprJulOctJan-08

AprJul

Davis

WeberState

*Seasonally Adjusted.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

$$$$ Wages $$$$

2007 Average Monthly Wage by County


$1,792$1,899

$1,977$2,006$2,076

$2,134$2,145

$2,250$2,308$2,330$2,340$2,401

$2,490$2,502

$2,611$2,668$2,709$2,721$2,765$2,809$2,858

$2,951$3,043$3,088

$3,298$3,310$3,377$3,406

$3,534

$2,089

Piute Rich

Sanpete Garfield Wayne

Kane Iron

Grand Cache

Beaver Sevier

San Juan Washington

Morgan Daggett

Wasatch Millard Weber

Utah Summit Carbon

Juab Davis

State Tooele

Duchesne Emery

Box Elder Salt Lake

Uintah

% Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007


0.2%1.5%

2.3%3.0%

3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%

4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%

5.0%5.2%5.3%5.6%5.8%6.0%

6.5%7.3%7.4%7.6%

8.2%9.2%

10.1%10.5%

12.7%12.9%

14.7%

3.2%

Emery Piute

Wayne Tooele Beaver

Davis Weber

Washington Iron

Cache Millard Sevier

Carbon Grand

Garfield Morgan

State Utah

Salt Lake Box Elder

Sanpete Summit

Kane Uintah

Daggett San Juan

Rich Wasatch

Juab Duchesne

Average Monthly Wage – 2007

• State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above both Davis $2,952 ($17.03/hr) and Weber $2,718 ($15.68/hr)

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

Average Wage

State

Davis

Weber

$3044

$2952

$2718


Average Wage ChangeState, Davis, Weber2005-2006 and 2006-2007*

5.6%

3.6%4.0%

5.7%5.6%5.4%

State Davis Weber

2005-2006 2006-2007

*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of workforce Services

Total Payroll Wage ChangeState, Davis, Weber2005-2006 and 2006-2007*

9.8%

6.7%

7.5%

8.7%

10.0%10.5%

State Davis Weber

2005-2006 2006-2007

*PreliminarySource: Utah Department of workforce Services

Davis & Weber Counties Average Monthly Wage, 2007

3,889

2,057

989

2,744

3,506

2,557

3,210

3,231

3,931

2,951

2,897

1,965

995

3,004

2,463

3,137

2,499

2,348

3,776

3,002

6,218

2,709

3,283

2,610

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Government

Other Services

Leisure Hospitality

Educ. & Health Serv

Prof. Bus. Serv

Finance

Information

Trad Transp Util

Manuf.

Construction

Mining

Total

WeberDavis


Average WageDavis $2,951Weber $2,709

11.4%

5.3%

3.3%

1.8%

4.5%

0.8%

4.7%

-9.6%

4.7%

3.0%

5.3%

2.9%

3.3%

-12.4%

4.1%

5.0%

4.9%

2.5%

2.6%

3.2%

4.9%

6.4%

DavisWeber

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Util

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

Percent Change in Average WagesBy Industry, Davis & Weber Counties, 2006-2007


Prof., and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Construction

Davis & Weber Counties Construction Dwelling Permits

1,473

1,280 1,304 1,2661,142 1,183 1,255

873

1,832

2,571 2,564

2,867

3,179 3,160

2,765

1,919

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Davis Weber

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

Davis & Weber Counties Construction Permit Values

(Millions of $)

359

251230

268238

278

324 327321

391431

544

640

727 718

571

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Davis Weber


Davis & Weber Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008

-17.0% -18.0%

-52.9%

-46.0%

-56.0%

-44.0%

Davis Weber State


Dwelling Permits Total Const.Valuation

Outlook

Jobs

State OutlookContinued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative -1.0%

in 2009. Growth around 2.0% after 2009.

DavisSliding to zero job growth in 2008. Slipping to – 0.5% in 2009.

WeberJob growth of –0.5% for 2008. Still negative in 2009 at about

-1.0%. Manufacturing job losses to continue.

UnemploymentIncreasing in all counties but not accelerating. More “job pausing,”i.e. not hiring, as firms determine which way the economy is going to move.

Davis unemployment at 5.0% in 2009Weber joblessness in the 5.0% to 5.5% range in 2009

Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows.

ConstructionPermitting at low levels but growing in 2009 and 2010 if lendingresumes. Total construction activity held together mostly bynonresidential (commercial/industrial) building. Little residentialactivity until finance industry settles, qualifying standards set,and regulatory resolution known.

SpendingSlow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better timesthey will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and

inflation(energy prices).

Questions?

John MathewsNorthern Regional Economist

Department of Workforce Services(jobs.utah.gov)

[email protected](801) 526-9467

Powerpoint slide show at:http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html

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Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008

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