North Carolina Coal Institute Adapting to the Evolving...
Transcript of North Carolina Coal Institute Adapting to the Evolving...
North Carolina Coal Institute “Adapting to the Evolving Landscape of CAPP”Paul Vining, President Alpha Natural ResourcesApril 3, 2014
ForwardForward--Looking StatementsLooking Statements
Statements in this presentation which are not statements of historical fact are “forward-lookingstatements” within the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of1995. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Many factors could cause ouractual results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to be materially different fromany future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking-statements These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K Quarterlystatements. These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10 K, QuarterlyReports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We make forward-looking statementsbased on currently available information, and we assume no obligation to update the statementsmade today or contained in our Annual Report or other filings due to changes in underlyingfactors, new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law.
Third Party Information Third Party Information
This presentation, including certain forward-looking statements herein, include informationobtained from third party sources that we believe to be reliable However we have notobtained from third party sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we have notindependently verified this third party information and cannot assure you of its accuracy orcompleteness. While we are not aware of any misstatements regarding any third party datacontained in this presentation, such data involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to changebased on various factors, including those discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K,Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We assume no obligationto revise or update this third party information to reflect future events or circumstances.
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Alpha Overview
● Leading U.S. supplier and exporter
Globally # 4 in metallurgical coal shipments Domestically #4 in total coal shipments
● One of the most regionally diversified U.S. producers
81 mines & 23 prep plants offer wide range of coal qualities & performance characteristics
● More export capacity than any other U.S. d 25 30 illi tproducer: 25–30 million tons
● Nearly $2 billion in total liquidity as of end of 2013
● Focus on operational optimization, cost control, consistent execution, and free cash-flow generation
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Alpha - Our Brief Journey
2005 [IPO]2005 [IPO]
ll ld ll ld
20112011 20132013
ll ld ● 109 million tons sold● 145 mines● 35 prep plants● 14,500 employees
● 86 million tons sold● 81 mines● 23 prep plants● 10,500 employees
● 27 million tons sold● 69 mines● 11 prep plants● 2,600 employees
● 4.7 billion tons of reserves ● 4.3 billion tons of reserves● 515 million tons of reserves
Total ShipmentsTotal Shipments
80
100
120
f Ton
s
Met
Steam
20
40
60
Mill
ions
of
0
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E*
4Note: *2014 represents midpoint of guidance issued 02/12/14
Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Customers Overseas
SwedenConneaut, OH
~170 Customers in 29 Countries on 5 Continents~170 Customers in 29 Countries on 5 Continents
Belgium
Romania
Canada
France
NetherlandsUkraine
Spain Turkey
United Kingdom
Sandusky, OHNewport News, VA
Lambert’sPoint/Norfolk, VA
Baltimore, MD
Ashtabula OH
Russia
Finland
JapanAustria
Italy
PolandHungary
Germany
South Korea
Egypt
Ashtabula, OH
New Orleans, LA
Mexico India
China
Brazil
Argentina South Africa
2013 Total Shipments: 86.9 million tons2013 Total Shipments: 86.9 million tons 2013 Met Exports: 14.9 million tons2013 Met Exports: 14.9 million tons
2013 Total Exports: 19.5 million tons2013 Total Exports: 19.5 million tons 2013 Steam Exports: 4.6 million tons2013 Steam Exports: 4.6 million tons
Note: All amounts represent full year 2013 shipments in short tons
Alpha Today – Domestic and Global Reach
350
400
on to
ns)
Industrial ShipmentsUtility Shipments Exports have been a bright spot, helping mitigate the impact of the drop in domestic
250
300
oal C
argo
s (m
illio
-38%398062
80
shipments
100
150
200
RR
s D
omes
tic C
o
16317
3
231242
250
293
2930292
60
70
(mill
ion
tons
)0
50
100
East
ern
R
485250503952545151
50
s Ex
port
Car
gos
+170%
0201320122011201020092008200720062005
The entire eastern coal supply chain has shrunk 23% since 2005 ith t t l d ti
30
40Ea
ster
n R
Rs
2005, with total domestic shipments decreasing 38% 20
2005 20132012201120102009200820072006Source: AAR, Public Filings, Bloomberg, Internal Analysis
Alpha Today – Strong at Home
PRB Operations - 201338.2 million tons thermal
~10% of PRB market Eastern Coal Operations - 201328 6 million tons thermal28.6 million tons thermal20.1 million tons met
~20% of combined NAPP and CAPP market
WYOMING2013 Shipments
33%
2013 Shipments
PENNSYLVANIA
44%
WESTVIRGINIA
23%
PRBMet
Source: EVA, Internal AnalysisNote: Tonnages and percentages as of December 31, 2013
VIRGINIAKENTUCKYMetEastern Thermal
Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve our Domestic Customers
The inventory drawdown has aided prices Term PRB business continues to benefit all
parties
95
100
105 $13
$11
$12
+22%
80
85
90$11
$9
$10
tock
s (m
m to
ns)
PRB
8800
65
70
75
$7
$6
$8-41%M
onth
ly P
RB
St 0 ($/ton)
50
55
60
$4
$5
$6
JulJan Jan MarMay SepMar MayNovJul NovSep FebJul-13
Jan-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
May-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Nov-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Monthly Stocks (mm tons)PRB 8800 ($/ton)Source: Bloomberg, EVA, Internal Analysis
Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Our Domestic Customers
NAPP NAPP –– The ChallengeThe Challenge NAPP NAPP –– The OpportunityThe Opportunity
● The Cumberland Mine is an efficient longwall operation in the Pitt #8 seam Approx. 6-7 million tons per year
production
● The Cumberland Mine is an efficient longwall operation in the Pitt #8 seam Approx. 6-7 million tons per year
production
● A barge to rail unit train loadout facility is being constructed at about 18miles from Cumberland’s river dock. Joint access to customers serviced by
● A barge to rail unit train loadout facility is being constructed at about 18miles from Cumberland’s river dock. Joint access to customers serviced by
Over 80 million tons of reserves
● Cumberland is restricted to barge loadings on the Monongahela River
M k t t i t d t i il b
Over 80 million tons of reserves
● Cumberland is restricted to barge loadings on the Monongahela River
M k t t i t d t i il b
both the NS and CSX railroads.
● 350,000 tons of potential stockpile space in its initial design. Additional ground storage and customer
both the NS and CSX railroads.
● 350,000 tons of potential stockpile space in its initial design. Additional ground storage and customer
Market restricted to primarily barge-serviced utilities
● Cumberland has limited ground storage at its mine, preparation plant, and dock.
Market restricted to primarily barge-serviced utilities
● Cumberland has limited ground storage at its mine, preparation plant, and dock.
base would allow Cumberland to consider increasing production.
● Projected start up Q3 2014
base would allow Cumberland to consider increasing production.
● Projected start up Q3 2014
Total clean capacity is about 5 days at current production levels
Total clean capacity is about 5 days at current production levels
Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Our Domestic Customers
Cumberlandbarge - railbarge - railproject
Alpha Today – Well Positioned to Serve our Customers
CAPP production is now about half of what it was in 2005. Alpha has grown its share of the CAPP basin 7%
Share of CAPP Production ‐ 2005
200
220
240 Total CAPP Production
140
160
180
n (m
m to
ns)
93%
Share of CAPP Production 2013
80
100
120
CA
PP P
rodu
ctio
n
28%
Share of CAPP Production ‐ 2013
20
40
60
C
72%0
201320122011201020092008200720062005
Alpha OthersSource: EVA, Internal Analysis
Alpha’s Value Proposition
Long term horizon
Value Proposition: Reliability of Supply & Consistent Execution
Long-term horizon
Safety-driven, dependable and customer focused
A trusted and reliable partner
Top 5 U.S. producer, No. 1 CAPP supplierpp
Dedicated sales & marketing team that communicates directly with customers
Diverse operating portfolio designed to manage risk with diversity in regions, mine types, coal qualities g , yp , qand end-markets
Solid financial and credit profile
Energy Supply Chain Volatility
45%
50%
Harsh winters
Your natural gas price EKG Will Increasing Natural Gas Supply be the Silver Bullet?
30%
35%
40%
45%
%)
Harsh winters
Low inventory levels
Increasing demand from
10%
15%
20%
25%
b D
aily
Cha
nge
(%
gutility, industrial and transportation sectors
Decreasing imports and increasing
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Hen
ry H
ub
g p gexports within North America
LNG exports globally
D ti t l i it
-25%
-20%
-15%
10% Domestic natural gas price parity with international prices
Environmental concerns
Source: Bloomberg, Internal Analysis
Why Should You Care?
During the Polar Vortex…89% of AEP’s coal capacity slated for retirement in mid-2015 ranSouthern Co. ran 75% of coal plants scheduled to retireTVA set new demand records with nearly 20 coal plants set to retireAll coal capacity in PJM was called upon
“The grid successfully avoided disaster, but did we need to skate so close to the edge?” – ICF analyst J d h RJudah Rose
“Our coal-based generation resources protected Arkansas consumers from the full effect of the recent spike in natural gas prices. ” – Mel Coleman, CEO, North Arkansas Electric Cooperative
“Increased dependence on natural gas for generating capacity
“Natural gas prices soar as mercury plummets” Th N Y k Ti
p g f g g p ycan amplify the [grid’s]exposure to interruptions in natural gas fuel supply and delivery.” – NERC 2011 Special Reliability Assessment
“We do not believe the latest gas price spikes are an aberration…” – UBS analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith
“FERC to probe gas price spikes during deep freeze”
“Natural gas prices soar as mercury plummets” – The New York Times
FERC to probe gas price spikes during deep freeze – EE News Greenwire
What We Each Want at the End of the Day
Keep the juice flowing Customers that appreciate a safe &
Fuel optionality
Ability to deliver flawlessly
principled partner
A long-term view
Security of volume Financially viable L/T suppliers
Security of volume commitmentsto justify investmentIn infrastructure
www.alphanr.comp
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