North Carolina Coal Institute Adapting to the Evolving...

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North Carolina Coal Institute Adapting to the Evolving Landscape of CAPPPaul Vining, President Alpha Natural Resources April 3, 2014

Transcript of North Carolina Coal Institute Adapting to the Evolving...

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North Carolina Coal Institute “Adapting to the Evolving Landscape of CAPP”Paul Vining, President Alpha Natural ResourcesApril 3, 2014

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ForwardForward--Looking StatementsLooking Statements

Statements in this presentation which are not statements of historical fact are “forward-lookingstatements” within the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of1995. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Many factors could cause ouractual results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to be materially different fromany future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking-statements These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K Quarterlystatements. These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10 K, QuarterlyReports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We make forward-looking statementsbased on currently available information, and we assume no obligation to update the statementsmade today or contained in our Annual Report or other filings due to changes in underlyingfactors, new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law.

Third Party Information Third Party Information

This presentation, including certain forward-looking statements herein, include informationobtained from third party sources that we believe to be reliable However we have notobtained from third party sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we have notindependently verified this third party information and cannot assure you of its accuracy orcompleteness. While we are not aware of any misstatements regarding any third party datacontained in this presentation, such data involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to changebased on various factors, including those discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K,Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We assume no obligationto revise or update this third party information to reflect future events or circumstances.

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Alpha Overview

● Leading U.S. supplier and exporter

Globally # 4 in metallurgical coal shipments Domestically #4 in total coal shipments

● One of the most regionally diversified U.S. producers

81 mines & 23 prep plants offer wide range of coal qualities & performance characteristics

● More export capacity than any other U.S. d 25 30 illi tproducer: 25–30 million tons

● Nearly $2 billion in total liquidity as of end of 2013

● Focus on operational optimization, cost control, consistent execution, and free cash-flow generation

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Alpha - Our Brief Journey

2005 [IPO]2005 [IPO]

ll ld ll ld

20112011 20132013

ll ld ● 109 million tons sold● 145 mines● 35 prep plants● 14,500 employees

● 86 million tons sold● 81 mines● 23 prep plants● 10,500 employees

● 27 million tons sold● 69 mines● 11 prep plants● 2,600 employees

● 4.7 billion tons of reserves ● 4.3 billion tons of reserves● 515 million tons of reserves

Total ShipmentsTotal Shipments

80

100

120

f Ton

s

Met

Steam

20

40

60

Mill

ions

of

0

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E*

4Note: *2014 represents midpoint of guidance issued 02/12/14

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Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Customers Overseas

SwedenConneaut, OH

~170 Customers in 29 Countries on 5 Continents~170 Customers in 29 Countries on 5 Continents

Belgium

Romania

Canada

France

NetherlandsUkraine

Spain Turkey

United Kingdom

Sandusky, OHNewport News, VA

Lambert’sPoint/Norfolk, VA

Baltimore, MD

Ashtabula OH

Russia

Finland

JapanAustria

Italy

PolandHungary

Germany

South Korea

Egypt

Ashtabula, OH

New Orleans, LA

Mexico India

China

Brazil

Argentina South Africa

2013 Total Shipments: 86.9 million tons2013 Total Shipments: 86.9 million tons 2013 Met Exports: 14.9 million tons2013 Met Exports: 14.9 million tons

2013 Total Exports: 19.5 million tons2013 Total Exports: 19.5 million tons 2013 Steam Exports: 4.6 million tons2013 Steam Exports: 4.6 million tons

Note: All amounts represent full year 2013 shipments in short tons

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Alpha Today – Domestic and Global Reach

350

400

on to

ns)

Industrial ShipmentsUtility Shipments Exports have been a bright spot, helping mitigate the impact of the drop in domestic

250

300

oal C

argo

s (m

illio

-38%398062

80

shipments

100

150

200

RR

s D

omes

tic C

o

16317

3

231242

250

293

2930292

60

70

(mill

ion

tons

)0

50

100

East

ern

R

485250503952545151

50

s Ex

port

Car

gos

+170%

0201320122011201020092008200720062005

The entire eastern coal supply chain has shrunk 23% since 2005 ith t t l d ti

30

40Ea

ster

n R

Rs

2005, with total domestic shipments decreasing 38% 20

2005 20132012201120102009200820072006Source: AAR, Public Filings, Bloomberg, Internal Analysis

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Alpha Today – Strong at Home

PRB Operations - 201338.2 million tons thermal

~10% of PRB market Eastern Coal Operations - 201328 6 million tons thermal28.6 million tons thermal20.1 million tons met

~20% of combined NAPP and CAPP market

WYOMING2013 Shipments

33%

2013 Shipments

PENNSYLVANIA

44%

WESTVIRGINIA

23%

PRBMet

Source: EVA, Internal AnalysisNote: Tonnages and percentages as of December 31, 2013

VIRGINIAKENTUCKYMetEastern Thermal

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Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve our Domestic Customers

The inventory drawdown has aided prices Term PRB business continues to benefit all

parties

95

100

105 $13

$11

$12

+22%

80

85

90$11

$9

$10

tock

s (m

m to

ns)

PRB

8800

65

70

75

$7

$6

$8-41%M

onth

ly P

RB

St 0 ($/ton)

50

55

60

$4

$5

$6

JulJan Jan MarMay SepMar MayNovJul NovSep FebJul-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-12

Sep-12

Mar-12

May-13

Nov-12

Jul-12

Nov-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Monthly Stocks (mm tons)PRB 8800 ($/ton)Source: Bloomberg, EVA, Internal Analysis

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Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Our Domestic Customers

NAPP NAPP –– The ChallengeThe Challenge NAPP NAPP –– The OpportunityThe Opportunity

● The Cumberland Mine is an efficient longwall operation in the Pitt #8 seam Approx. 6-7 million tons per year

production

● The Cumberland Mine is an efficient longwall operation in the Pitt #8 seam Approx. 6-7 million tons per year

production

● A barge to rail unit train loadout facility is being constructed at about 18miles from Cumberland’s river dock. Joint access to customers serviced by

● A barge to rail unit train loadout facility is being constructed at about 18miles from Cumberland’s river dock. Joint access to customers serviced by

Over 80 million tons of reserves

● Cumberland is restricted to barge loadings on the Monongahela River

M k t t i t d t i il b

Over 80 million tons of reserves

● Cumberland is restricted to barge loadings on the Monongahela River

M k t t i t d t i il b

both the NS and CSX railroads.

● 350,000 tons of potential stockpile space in its initial design. Additional ground storage and customer

both the NS and CSX railroads.

● 350,000 tons of potential stockpile space in its initial design. Additional ground storage and customer

Market restricted to primarily barge-serviced utilities

● Cumberland has limited ground storage at its mine, preparation plant, and dock.

Market restricted to primarily barge-serviced utilities

● Cumberland has limited ground storage at its mine, preparation plant, and dock.

base would allow Cumberland to consider increasing production.

● Projected start up Q3 2014

base would allow Cumberland to consider increasing production.

● Projected start up Q3 2014

Total clean capacity is about 5 days at current production levels

Total clean capacity is about 5 days at current production levels

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Alpha Today – Positioned to Serve Our Domestic Customers

Cumberlandbarge - railbarge - railproject

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Alpha Today – Well Positioned to Serve our Customers

CAPP production is now about half of what it was in 2005. Alpha has grown its share of the CAPP basin 7%

Share of CAPP Production ‐ 2005

200

220

240 Total CAPP Production

140

160

180

n (m

m to

ns)

93%

Share of CAPP Production 2013

80

100

120

CA

PP P

rodu

ctio

n

28%

Share of CAPP Production ‐ 2013

20

40

60

C

72%0

201320122011201020092008200720062005

Alpha OthersSource: EVA, Internal Analysis

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Alpha’s Value Proposition

Long term horizon

Value Proposition: Reliability of Supply & Consistent Execution

Long-term horizon

Safety-driven, dependable and customer focused

A trusted and reliable partner

Top 5 U.S. producer, No. 1 CAPP supplierpp

Dedicated sales & marketing team that communicates directly with customers

Diverse operating portfolio designed to manage risk with diversity in regions, mine types, coal qualities g , yp , qand end-markets

Solid financial and credit profile

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Energy Supply Chain Volatility

45%

50%

Harsh winters

Your natural gas price EKG Will Increasing Natural Gas Supply be the Silver Bullet?

30%

35%

40%

45%

%)

Harsh winters

Low inventory levels

Increasing demand from

10%

15%

20%

25%

b D

aily

Cha

nge

(%

gutility, industrial and transportation sectors

Decreasing imports and increasing

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Hen

ry H

ub

g p gexports within North America

LNG exports globally

D ti t l i it

-25%

-20%

-15%

10% Domestic natural gas price parity with international prices

Environmental concerns

Source: Bloomberg, Internal Analysis

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Why Should You Care?

During the Polar Vortex…89% of AEP’s coal capacity slated for retirement in mid-2015 ranSouthern Co. ran 75% of coal plants scheduled to retireTVA set new demand records with nearly 20 coal plants set to retireAll coal capacity in PJM was called upon

“The grid successfully avoided disaster, but did we need to skate so close to the edge?” – ICF analyst J d h RJudah Rose

“Our coal-based generation resources protected Arkansas consumers from the full effect of the recent spike in natural gas prices. ” – Mel Coleman, CEO, North Arkansas Electric Cooperative

“Increased dependence on natural gas for generating capacity

“Natural gas prices soar as mercury plummets” Th N Y k Ti

p g f g g p ycan amplify the [grid’s]exposure to interruptions in natural gas fuel supply and delivery.” – NERC 2011 Special Reliability Assessment

“We do not believe the latest gas price spikes are an aberration…” – UBS analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith

“FERC to probe gas price spikes during deep freeze”

“Natural gas prices soar as mercury plummets” – The New York Times

FERC to probe gas price spikes during deep freeze – EE News Greenwire

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What We Each Want at the End of the Day

Keep the juice flowing Customers that appreciate a safe &

Fuel optionality

Ability to deliver flawlessly

principled partner

A long-term view

Security of volume Financially viable L/T suppliers

Security of volume commitmentsto justify investmentIn infrastructure

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www.alphanr.comp

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