North American Water Programa prospectus

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Motivation• Reliable hydroclimate predictions are essential for assessing the availability and stresses on

clean water supplies.• Understanding and predicting water cycle extremes in a changing climate has direct application

for preserving life, environment and economic assets. • CHALLENGE: provide skillful forecasts of extremes, weeks, seasons, years and even decades in

advance that are useful for water resource management.

Current Limitations: • Translation of observational and simulated knowledge of regional and

continental water budgets into better hydro-climate predictions• Knowledge of the contribution of land surface processes to predictability

• Isolated in-situ and remote sensing observing systems• Incomplete coupled atmosphere-hydrology models• Understanding of human and earth system controls on the water cycle• Disconnected disciplinary research and operational programs.

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• The fact is, we don’t know how much water is stored in North America’s lakes, reservoirs, streams, groundwater systems or snow packs which is fundamental knowledge needed to manage any resource

• Our knowledge of Earth’s water environment at the surface and shallow subsurface remains appallingly insufficient.

• Our nation’s hydroclimate modeling assets are simply not up to the task of addressing our most pressing societal issues of food, energy, water, and national security. We are behind where we need to be. (Famiglietti 2012)

Unfortunate Realities

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(Barnston et al., 2010).Prediction skill score

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Water is critical to every aspect of the North American economy, public health,

energy, and food production

Population, climate and environmental change are quickly modifying the water

supply-demand balance

We need to establish the scientific basis, observation, prediction and decision approaches

to manage water security and sustainability

Ensuring America's water security

NAWP integrates and coordinates the vast array of North American observational and prediction resources available, to significantly advance skill in assessing, predicting and managing variability and changes in water resources.

Vision: Establish the scientific basis, observation, modeling and decision approaches needed to manage water security and sustainability through climate, population and environmental change uncertainties.

Challenges: to organize NAWP efforts• Adaptation: Develop the scientific basis and tools to adapt to climate, population and environmental

change.• Benchmarking: Assess water dynamics, water cycle sensitivity, and evaluate/improve model skill.• Science informing decisions: Develop the capacity for science-informed sustainable water

management practices.

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adaptation Shifting Probability Distributions

develop a scientific basis and tools to adapt to climate and environmental change.

Potential changes in the distribution of climate variables, with subsequent changes of the risk of extreme conditions (Folland et.al., 2001).

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• Develop methods to model non-stationary processes• Establish science basis for water sustainability:

• hydroclimate process science• land change science• precipitation prediction,• hydrologic ensemble generation• model building and calibration, • earth system model development• advancing land-atmosphere coupled models,• including human dimensions in models• developing risk-based uncertainty metrics

• Development of new methods and tools needed for water systems to adapt to change.

• Innovations to achieve a balance between water supply and demand and easing water quality issues

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benchmarkingassess water dynamics, water cycle sensitivity, and evaluate/improve model skill.

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• improving performance by identifying, understanding, adapting and implementing best practices and processes

• Exchange of information on processes, measurements, best practices and effective management.

• Framework for setting goals and continuous improvement.

• Local to regional field studies to fill critical observation and model gaps.

• Hydroclimate reanalyses of change and uncertainty.• Developing prediction and operational support

capabilities

Reanalysis PrecipitationBenchmarking

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science informing decisionsDevelop science-informed sustainable water management practices in the face of climate, population and environmental change.

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• A decision maker focus to better inform decisions—conduct fundamental, user-inspired research, while delivering credible & timely information.

• Facilitate meaningful partnerships between science and decision making (Community of Practice).

• Provide easy access to science knowledge and operational practices.

• Coordinate water science efforts to ensure they are relevant to informing water management decisions

• Define a framework for informing decisions: assess the value of proposed information, provide support, and communicate uncertainties.

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• North America has extensive capabilities – they just are not well integrated.• Integration is at the heart of NAWP – to make the most of the resources we have• NAWP ideas were developed through an April 2011 “Trace” workshop and

subsequent writing team.• NAWP white paper available• Currently just an idea – not officially a program… yet• Continues GEWEX-GCIP, GAPP, CPPA Heritage• Obvious synergies with NA Carbon Program• Connections & leverages with many existing efforts

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notes

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Vision: Establish the scientific basis, observation, modeling and decision approaches needed to manage water security and sustainability through climate, population and environmental change uncertainties.

Challenges: to organize NAWP efforts• Adaptation: Develop the scientific basis and tools to adapt to climate, population and environmental change.• Benchmarking: Assess water dynamics, water cycle sensitivity, and evaluate/improve model skill.• Science informing decisions: Develop the capacity for science-informed sustainable water management practices.

Implementation: • Quantify: Systematically quantify North American water storages and fluxes.• Understand: Analyze water cycle variations, trends and extremes; adaptation measure impacts.• Predict: Improve continental precipitation, cloud and hydrology prediction.• Solutions: Develop and transition new observations, models, and tools to operations.

NAWP leverages these efforts and integrates: • Interdiciplinary: Atmosphere, ocean, and land• Government, academic, private• Continental – global to local• International – 20+ North American countries

No current effort exists to make these critical links and integration of continental-scale hydroclimatology towards water security.

11Solutions for America's water security

just the facts

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To be successful, NAWP must:

• Evolve and mature with broad science community and stakeholder participation• NAWP white paper must be circulated widely inviting revision and clarification• Science & stakeholder forums must be conducted to build grassroots support• NAWP presentations and conferences and workshops to invite participation• Organizations must take ownership of key NAWP components• Involvement of international organizations (Canada, Mexico, Central America are critical)

• Develop an organizational structure and plans• Convene a scientific discovery team to finalize vision, establish organization, and build partnerships.• Establish a project office to coalesce partnerships, disseminate information and organize workshops• Draft science and implementation plans• Form working groups, or NAWP circles to refine and implement the NAWP challenges

There are clear needs and roles for a wide variety of governmental, academic, non-profit and private sector organizations to lead various NAWP initiatives toward solutions for North America’s freshwater sustainability challenges.

12Good to the last drop, but then what?

The way forward