Norges Bank 11 Executive Board meeting 13 August 2008.
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Transcript of Norges Bank 11 Executive Board meeting 13 August 2008.
Norges Bank
22
-2.5
0
2.5
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2.5
0
2.5
5
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Weighted median
CPI-ATE1)
20 per cent trimmed mean
CPI
Consumer prices12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2008
CPIXE2)
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.2) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices
Norges Bank
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Central bank interest rates and forward rates
Norway
US
Euro area
11 August 2008
Market after MPR 2/08 (25 June)
Sweden
UK
Norges Bank
4
Money market rates
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Market 11 August 2008
Market after MPR 2/08 (25 June)
MPR 2/08
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
5Source: Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2007 2008 2008 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
JPMorgan ChaseiTraxx Europe index
Citigroup
UBS
Merrill Lynch
CDS prices for US and European companies and selected banks.
Basis points. 1 July 2007 – 11 August 2008
Norges Bank
6
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Equities Indices. 1 July 2007 = 100
Source: Thomson Reuters
US, S&P 500
Emerging markets
Norway, OSEBX
Europe, Stoxx
Japan, Topix
25 June
Norges Bank
7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Difference between three-month money market rates and expected key rates 1)
Historic and ahead. Percentage points.
US
Euro area
UK
Norway
1) The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). For Norway, the estimates are based on key policy rate expectations in the market.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
8
OECD leading indicatorsIndex. Historic average = 100. January 1995 – June 2008
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
Sources: Thomson Reuters / OECD
Euro area
OECD
Norges Bank
9
50
150
250
350
2002 2004 2006 2008
50
150
250
350
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel
Futures prices (broken lines)
1) In USD Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
20.06.08 (MPR 1/08)
International commodity prices1)
Index. Week 1 2002 = 100 Week 1 2002 – week 32 2008
11.08.08
Food
IndustrialsAll items
Metals
Non-foodagriculturals
Norges Bank
10
Rise in consumer prices abroad12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2008
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
-5
0
5
10
15
20
UK
Euro area
US
Japan
Sweden
Source: Thomson Reuters
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
-5
0
5
10
15
20Russia
Brazil
India1)
China
1) Wholesale prices
Norges Bank
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
US
Inflation and long-term inflation expectationsMonthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July 2008 1)
CPI
CPI excl food and energy
10-year inflation expectations: swaps
10-year inflation expectations: ”break-even” (Real interest rate bonds)
5-10-year inflation expectations: Survey (University of Michigan)
Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters1) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008
Norges Bank
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
USInflation and implicit inflation expectations 1)
Monthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July 2008 2)
CPI
CPI excl food and energy
Implicit five-year inflation expectations in five years
Implicit one-year inflation expectations in one year
Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
1) Implicit one-year (five-year) inflation expectations in one year (five years) can be interpreted as expected one-year (five-year) inflationin one year (five years). Inflation expectations are based on inflation swaps from Bloomberg. 2) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008
Norges Bank
13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Euro area Inflation and implicit inflation expectations1)
Monthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July 2008 2)
CPI
Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
Implicit one-year inflation expectations in one year
Implicit five-year inflation expectations in five years
CPI excl food and energy
1) Implicit one-year (five-year) inflation expectations in one year (five years) can be interpreted as expected one-year (five-year) inflationin one year (five years). Inflation expectations are based on inflation swaps from Bloomberg. 2) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008
Norges Bank
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
US 2- and 10-year inflation expectations
Per cent. Daily figures. 2 January 2008 – 8 August 2008
2-year inflation expectations10-year inflation expectations
Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
Norges Bank
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mean January – June 20081)
Relative consumer prices
Relative wage costs
Real exchange rateDeviation from mean. Per cent. 1970 – 2007
Average ”oil age”
1) Data for 2008 based on observations to 8 August Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
16
Import and export prices 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2000 Q1 – 2008 Q2
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Traditional imports
Traditional exports
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
17
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Source: Thomson Reuters
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Manufacturing production indexSeasonally adjusted volume index. 3-month moving average.
January 2002 – June 2008
Capital goods
Intermediate goods
Consumer goods
Trend
3-month moving average
Norges Bank
18
Bottle-necks in productionBusiness tendency survey. Per cent. 2004 Q4 – 2008 Q2
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Labour supply(right-hand scale)
Demand and competition (left-hand scale)
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
19
2380
2400
2420
2440
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08
2380
2400
2420
2440
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
Employment (LFS)In 1000s of persons. Seasonally adjusted. June 2006 – May 2008
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Annualised change in 3-month moving average
House pricesMonthly figures. January 1998 – July 2008
12-month change
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON Pöyry and FINN.no
Norges Bank
21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Building starts Area (1000 m2). Trend. January 2002 – May 2008
Other buildings
Dwellings
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
22
130
140
150
160
170
2005 2006 2007 2008
130
140
150
160
170
Sources: Statistics Norway
Published in April
Published in May
Index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted. January 2005 – May 2009
Norges Bank
23
Household net lendingTotal past four quarters. In billions of NOK. 2003 Q1 – 2008 Q1
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
National accounts
Financial sector accounts (FINSE)
National accounts, excludingreinvested dividends
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
24
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
6.25
6.75
7.25
May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
6.25
6.75
7.25
Mortgage rate2)
Money market rate
Key policy rate, money market rate1) and bank lending rate on new loans2)
In per cent. 3 May 2007 – 11 August 2008
Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges Bank
1) 3-month NIBOR.2) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1 million within 60% ofpurchase price with floating interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share.
Key policy rate