Norges Bank 1 Chart 1 Norwegian commercial fleet 1800-1900 Thousand gross tons Source: Statistics...
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Transcript of Norges Bank 1 Chart 1 Norwegian commercial fleet 1800-1900 Thousand gross tons Source: Statistics...
Norges Bank
1
Norges Bank
Chart 1 Norwegian commercial fleet 1800-1900Thousand gross tons
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
2
Norges Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
0
5
10
15
20
25
Chart 2 Exports of goods Per cent of global GDP. 1870-2004
Source: IMF
Norges Bank
3
Norges Bank
Chart 3 Extended trade cooperation
Source: WTO
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
1947-1961
1964-1967
1973-1979
1986-1993
2001-
Duties
+ anti-dumping
+ trade barriers, subsidies
+ services, textiles, agriculture, patents
+ health, environment, development issues
Countries in GATT/WTO
Norges Bank
4
Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Source: WTO
Chart 4 Share of world exportsPer cent
China
Germany
US
India
Norges Bank
5
Norges Bank
Chart 5 Commodity pricesIndices
0
100
200
300
400
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
0
100
200
300
400
Sources: EcoWin and Reuters
Oil
Aluminium
Zink
Norges Bank
6
Norges Bank
Chart 6 Terms of tradeIndex
0.6
1
1.4
1.8
2.2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0.6
1
1.4
1.8
2.2
Mainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Denmark, EcoWin, Statistics Finland and Statistics Norway
Sweden
Norway, incl. oil
Finland
Denmark
Norges Bank
7
Norges Bank
Chart 7 Price rise for jackets, sweaters, blouses and dresses
Per cent
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
8
Norges Bank
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Chart 8 Exports and foreign assetsPer cent of global GDP. 1870-2004
Exports, right-hand scale
Assets, left-hand scale
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
9
Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chart 9 Long-term real interest ratesPer cent
US
Euro area
Source: OECD
Norges Bank
10
Norges Bank
Chart 10 Inflation in industrialised countriesAnnual rise. Per cent
0
4
8
12
16
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
4
8
12
16
Source: OECD
Norges Bank
11
Norges Bank
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Chart 11 Inflation in Norway Annual rise. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
12
Norges Bank
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Chart 12 Employment, labour costs and mainland GDP
Annual growth. Per cent
Employment
GDP
Labour costs
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
13
Norges Bank
Chart 13 Work permits
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
2003 2004 2005
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000Other countries
New EU-countries
Source: Norwegian Directorate of Immigration
Norges Bank
14
Norges Bank
Chart 14 Capacity utilisation in manufacturingPer cent
75
77
79
81
83
85
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
75
77
79
81
83
85
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
15
Norges Bank
Chart 15 Inflation and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy
Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Inflation
Capacity utilisation
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
16
Norges Bank
0
3
6
9
12
15
1996 1999 2002 2005
Chart 16a Income anddebt in householdsAnnual growth. Per cent
60
100
140
180
220
260
1996 1999 2002 2005
Chart 16b House prices and consumer prices
Indices
Inflation
House pricesDebt
Income
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, ECON , Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
17
Norges Bank
Chart 17 Key interest rate projectionPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
18
Norges Bank
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
800 000 600 000
-20
-10
0
10
20
303 % interest rate
6% interest rate
6% interest rate and fall in income
Income
Chart 18 Net of basic expenses,interest and principal
Per cent of income
Sources: National Institute for Consumer Research and Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
19
Norges Bank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Norway
Kongsberg
Notodden
Chart 19 Manufacturing workersAs a per cent of the working population
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
20
Norges Bank
Chart 20 Living conditions - problemsIndex. 2005
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Disability pension Rehabilitationallowance
Unemployed Only compulsoryeducation
Notodden Kongsberg
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
21
Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970-1974 1975-1994 1995-2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
US EU Mainland Norway
Chart 21 Productivity growth in the business sectorPer cent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD and Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
22
Norges Bank
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
Chart 22 Productivity in NorwayAnnual growth. Per cent
Goods and services sector
Mainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
23
Norges Bank
Chart 23 Mathematical skills among new students Per cent correct answers
20
40
60
80
100
20
40
60
80
100
19841986
1999
2003
Calculation of percentage
Arithmetic
Source: Norwegian Mathematics Council
Norges Bank
24
Norges Bank
20
40
60
80
100
0
4
8
12
16
Torino
1968 Grenoble
1976 Innsbruck
1988 Calgary
1994 Lillehammer
2002 Salt Lake
City
Chart 24 Norwegian medals in the Winter OlympicsIn per cent of total attainable medals
Sources: Norwegian Mathematics Council, IOC and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
25
Norges Bank
Chart 25 Share of employedPer cent
55
65
75
85
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
55
65
75
85
Norway
US
EU
Source: OECD
Norges Bank
26
Norges Bank
Chart 26 Average hours worked per employee
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
Norway
US
EU
Source: OECD
Norges Bank
27
Norges Bank
58
59
60
61
62
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
58
59
60
61
62
Chart 27 Expected age of retirement
Source: National Insurance Administration
Norges Bank
28
Norges Bank
Chart 28 New pensioners on agreement-based pensions and disability pensions
Projection. In thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Agreement-based
Disability
Source: The Norwegian National Insurance Administration and Norges Bank
Norges Bank
29
Norges Bank
Chart 29 The Government Pension Fund – GlobalPer cent of mainland GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank