Nordnet med Hydro investorpresentasjon
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Hydro Presentation Nordnet
Pål Kildemo
Head of Investor Relations
(1)
01
A resource rich global
aluminium company
(2)
(3)
A resource-rich, global aluminium company With robust positions across the value chain
• Global provider of alumina, aluminium and aluminium products
• Leading businesses along the value chain; raw materials, energy, primary metal production, aluminium products and recycling
• 13 000 employees involved in activities in more than 50 countries
• Market capitalization ~NOK 70 billion
• Annual revenues ~NOK 65 billion
• Included in Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes and FTSE4Good
Primary Metal
Rolled Products
Energy
Bauxite & Alumina
50% joint venture in extruded products
Attractively positioned, global reach
Continental Europe
• Leading upstream and midstream positions
• Europe’s largest rolled products producer
• Technology and R&D centers
• Recycling network
Extruded Products
• 50% ownership in Sapa - global leader in extruded products
Norway
• 900,000 tpy hydro-powered aluminium production
• Technology and R&D centers
• Hydropower developments
• Rolled products, recycling and remelting
North America
• Alouette aluminium smelter in Canada, expansion potential
• Remelting
Brazil
• World-class operations and resource base
• Bauxite and alumina growth projects
• Albras aluminium smelter
Middle East
• Qatalum 1 in production
• Qatalum expansion opportunity Australia
• Primary aluminium production
(5)
Hydro - a first tier aluminium company
Source: CRU, Hydro
Equity production in 2013 in aluminium equivalents excl. China, thousand mt
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
Alcoa/AWAC Rio Tinto Alcan* UC Rusal BHP Billiton Norsk Hydro Glencore/Century Hindalco Vedanta Emirates GlobalAluminium
Aluminium Bahrain
Alumina Aluminium
(6)
Curtailing 26% of
primary metal capacity
USD 300
program
Climb From B to A
Starting up
Qatalum
Acquiring bauxite
and alumina assets
Establishing
Sapa JV
JV-program
Hydro’s path towards global leadership
2010 2012 2009 2011 2013
03
The Market
(7)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
95
115
135
155
175
195
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Yearly consumption (Index 2000=100), global 3-month LME price (Index 2000=100)
The big dilemma of our industry A demand-side winner, yet a looser in the market place
Tin Zinc IP GDP Copper Lead Aluminium Nickel
Source: CRU/Global Insight.
Historical overproduction continues to weigh on prices
LME and BOC
(USD/t) Metal Balance
Source: CRU, Hydro Analysis
*BOC=Business Operating Costs
World ex. China
(9)
(1 500)
(1 000)
( 500)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
(1 500)
(1 000)
( 500)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
LME 3m Metal balance 90 percentile BOC
Source: CRU/Hydro
• Seasonally stronger demand
• 2014 aluminium demand expected to
grow 2-4 % in world outside China
• New curtailments and delays partly
offsetting ramp-ups
Demand expected to exceed production in 2014
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13
Demand Production
World outside China (quarterly annualized) 1 000 mt
World outside China
Standard ingot premiums rise to record highs
Source: Metal Bulletin, MW/MJP: Platts
Regional standard ingot premiums USD per mt
• Standard ingot premiums rose sharply
in Q1 2014
• US and EU premiums (duty-paid) ~415
USD/mt
• Proposed changes to LME warehousing
rules not implemented from April 1, due
to UK court ruling
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14
US Mid West Japan Europe (duty-paid)
1960
2000
2040
2080
2120
2160
2200
2240
2012 2013 2014 2015
The mechanism of financial deals – driving forces
Warehouse
rents
Attractiveness of financial deals dependent on the following equation
Financing cost < LME contango +
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
OECD US Eurozone UK
Source: Global Insight/Reuters
USD/t
$
(12)
Aluminium prices decrease through the quarter
USD per mt
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Primary aluminium LME USD/mt NOK/mt
Q1 2014 average
Q1 2014 end
1 752
1 774
10 671
10 620
Q4 2013 average
Q4 2013 end
1 815
1 811
10 981
10 986
• Aluminium price declining to range of
USD 1 700 - 1 800 per mt in Q1
• Minor decrease in average USD/mt price,
partly offset by weaker NOK
1 000
1 400
1 800
2 200
2 600
3 000
3 400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
LME (3-month avg.) LME forward June 2014
All-in aluminium price rising
USD per mt
Source: Metal Bulletin, MW/MJP: Platts, Reuters Ecowin
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
LME cash LME cash + US Midwest LME cash + Europe duty paid LME cash + Japan
And the same is seen for product premiums
MB Billet
premium
MB Ingot
premium DDP
Billet
premium
over ingot
Source: Metal Bulletin, Hydro
Metal Bulletin ingot and billet premium USD per mt
(15)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Slight reduction in reported inventories world ex-China
Source: CRU/Hydro
World outside China reported primary aluminium inventories 1 000 mt Days
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14
IAI Other LME World ex. China inventory days
Range-bound alumina prices
Platts alumina index (PAX)
Percent USD per mt
− Q1 average price 328 USD/mt,
up 5 USD/mt from Q4
− Alumina as % of LME rose to
close to 20 % mid-quarter,
highest since PAX introduction
− PAX and alumina as % of LME
decreased through the quarter,
following smelter curtailments in
the world outside China and
increased LME price
10
12
14
16
18
20
250
300
350
400
450
Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14
Alumina price % of LME
Indonesia bauxite export ban taking effect
• Complete ban on bauxite exports from
mid-January 2014
• Closures by bauxite miners in Indonesia
• Uncertainty around possibility of getting
export license for those with plans to
build alumina capacity in Indonesia
Source: China customs
Chinese bauxite import by origin (monthly) Million mt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Australia Indonesia Other Monthly average
China bauxite imports decreasing through Q1
• Bauxite and alumina
− Significant drop in bauxite
imports during Q1 as
Indonesia export ban starts
− Q1 alumina imports at
highest level since Q1 2010
• Primary aluminium
− No significant import or
export expected in 2014
• Semis and fabricated
− Export of semis and
fabricated products slightly
down in Jan/Feb
Annualized aluminium equivalents*, million mt
Source: CRU/Antaike/Hydro
* Bauxite/alumina to aluminium conversion factor: 5.0/1.925
Indonesia export ban taking effect
Fabricated Semis
Scrap Bauxite Alumina Primary aluminium
Ch
ina
im
po
rt
Ch
ina
exp
ort
2011 2012 2013
Total aluminium imports
( 10)
( 5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
YTD 2014
03
Ambitious improvement
drive
(20)
Ambitious improvement efforts throughout the
value chain
Energy
Bauxite
Alumina
Primary metal
Casting
Remelting
Rolling
Extrusion ‘From B to A’
Sapa JV
‘Energy
Aspiration’
‘Climb’
‘USD 300
program’
‘CCIP’
‘JV program’
(21)
World-class asset base, focus on operational
improvements
(22)
NOK 1 billion by end-
2015
20% manning reduction
Platts alumina index (PAX)
5.5
5.0
5.2
5.8 5.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-14
Alunorte production gradually increases “From B to A” improvement program Alumina trending higher
production, annualized mmt
10
12
14
16
18
20
250
300
350
400
450
Aug-10 Nov-11 Feb-13 May-14
Alumina price % of LME
13.9% 14.4% 15.3% LME%3)
286 275 269 Price2)
Strong improvement focus in Brazil
2012 2013 Q1 2014
Implied alumina cost and margin, USD/mt 1)
• Annualized alumina production stable
from Q4
• Higher hydrate production at Alunorte,
increased production at Paragominas
• “From B to A” improvement program
progressing according to plan
− Target NOK 1 billion by end-2015, of which
NOK 600 million by end-2014
• Continued and close dialogue on ICMS
taxes and framework conditions
1) Realized alumina price minus EBITDA for B&A, per mt alumina sales.
2) Realized alumina price
3) Realized alumina price as % of three month LME price with one month lag
Implied EBITDA cost per mt
475
263
425
EBITDA margin per mt
23
260
15
258
11
(23)
Primary Metal: a strong culture of continuous
improvement
(24)
USD 180
JV program
USD 300
program
USD 100
program
Financial
crisis Sovereign
debt crisis
USD 300
program
completion
2010 2013 2009 2011 2009 2013
Primary Metal operational improvements continue
2012 2013 Q1 2014
Implied primary cost and margin, USD/mt 1)
• Primary cost continues downward trend
− Improvement efforts with bottom-line effect
− Favorable exchange rate development
− Increasing premiums
• USD 180 JV program on track, to be
concluded by end-2016
− Positive contribution from continued
reduced cost at Qatalum
1) Realized aluminium price minus EBITDA margin per mt primary aluminium. Includes net earnings from primary casthouses.
2) Realized LME
Implied EBITDA cost per mt
475
1 775
425
EBITDA margin per mt
300
1 500
400
1 400
350
2 080 1 902 1 749 LME2)
(25)
Primary Metal: A strong improvement track record
(26)
Underlying EBITDA per mt in USD for respective primary aluminium divisions
All figures based on public accounting data, not verified by Hydro. Data not adjusted for different accounting principles and non-specified underlying items. Hydro makes no representation as to the
accuracy or completeness of such information. The analyses are based on assumptions subject to uncertainty and therefore intended only for general comparisons across companies and should not be
used to support any individual investment decision. All results are provided for informational purposes only. Hydro figures includes Primary Metal, Metal Markets and attributable share of EBITDA and
production in Qatalum.
1H 2011
-100
100
300
500
700
2H 2013
-100
100
300
500
700
Source: Company filings
(27)
‘Climb’
Rolled Products: improvements and portfolio high-
grading
New, integrated UBC line at Neuss,
Germany
New automotive line at
Grevenbroich, Germany
1.7
7.1 (2.5)
(2.5)
(2.0)
1.8
0.6 (1.8)
0.7
Net cash Q42012
UnderlyingEBITDA
Otheradjustments
Investmentsdivestments
Dividends Net cash afterdividend
Operatingcapital
Currencytranslation &
other
Net cash Q42013
Cash neutral after dividend at LME ~1 900 USD/mt
(28)
NOK billion
Dividend yield in percentage, based on year-end share-prices
Hydro compared to its aluminium peers
2010 2011
Source: Thomson ONE
2013
2.77%
1.10%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Hydro Peers
2012
Competitive yield through tough times
2.49%
1.80%
0.78%
0.19%
0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
5.10%
2.70%
1.39%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
2.70%
1.38%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
(29)
03
Strategy
(30)
(31)
Energy
Maximize asset potential,
strengthen global support function
Rolled Products
Continue to high-grade portfolio,
develop step-change innovations
Primary Metal
Continue improvement drive,
capitalize on technological edge
Bauxite & Alumina
Deliver on productivity goals,
realize improvement targets
Hydro’s main priorities
(32)
Hydro’s value
proposition • Improve relative industry position
• Capitalize on raw material positions
• Strengthen innovative and commercial edge
• Maintain financial strength and flexibility
• Ensure competitive shareholder return
(33)