Nooksack Indian Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change ...

Prepared by:University of Washington Climate Impacts GroupDecember 2017

Nooksack Indian Tribe Natural Resources Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

NooksackIndianTribeClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment Page|2

RecommendedCitationMorgan,H.,andM.Krosby.2017.NooksackIndianTribeNaturalResourcesClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington. Coverpageimagecredit:NooksackRiverbyOERTraining,usedunderCCBY-NC-ND2.0


TableofContents

Introduction................................................................................................4

AssessmentApproach................................................................................4ApproachOverview......................................................................................................................................4SpeciesandHabitatSelection......................................................................................................................5AssessmentArea..........................................................................................................................................7QuantitativeClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment..............................................................................8QualitativeClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment..............................................................................13AdditionalClimateVariablesNotIncludedintheCCVI..............................................................................14

Results.......................................................................................................15MoistureMetricandTemperatureProjections.........................................................................................15CCVIAnalysisResults..................................................................................................................................18ResultsofQualitativeVulnerabilityAssessment........................................................................................25

KeyFindings..............................................................................................27CCVIforthe2050sand2080s....................................................................................................................27KeyFindingsforHabitats............................................................................................................................29

Discussion.................................................................................................29ComparingResultswithotherAssessments..............................................................................................30Limitationsoftheassessment....................................................................................................................30

FutureResearchNeeds............................................................................31

NextSteps.................................................................................................32

References................................................................................................32

Appendix1................................................................................................34NatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI):OverallRankingsandIndirectClimateExposure,Sensitivity,andAdaptiveCapacitySub-Scores...........................................................................................34

Appendix2................................................................................................36InformationGapsforAssessedSpecies.....................................................................................................36

Appendix3................................................................................................38SpeciesandHabitatsFactSheets...............................................................................................................38FactSheetReferences................................................................................................................................83

Appendix4................................................................................................87SummaryReportofWorkshopsandWebinars..........................................................................................87


IntroductionTheclimateoftheNooksackRiverwatershedischanging,andisprojectedtocontinuetochangethroughoutthe21stcentury.Inadditiontorisingtemperaturesandexaggeratedpatternsofseasonalprecipitation,thewatershedislikelytoexperiencegreaterwildfirerisk,moreseverewinterflooding,risingsealevels,andincreasingoceanacidification.Thesechangeswillhaveprofoundimpactsonthewatershed’splants,animals,andecosystems,includingchangesinspeciesdistributions,abundances,andproductivity;shiftsinthetimingoflifecycleeventssuchasflowering,breeding,andmigration;andchangesinthedistributionandcompositionofecologicalcommunities.Understandingwhichspeciesandhabitatsareexpectedtobevulnerabletoclimatechange,andwhy,isacriticalfirststeptowardidentifyingstrategiesandactionsformaintainingpriorityspeciesandhabitatsinthefaceofchange.TheUniversityofWashingtonClimateImpactsGroupworkedcollaborativelywiththeNooksackIndianTribe’sNaturalResourceDepartmenttoevaluatetheclimatechangevulnerabilityofpriorityspeciesandhabitatsfortheTribe.Thisreportdescribestheapproachtakentoassessvulnerabilityandsummarizeskeyfindingsfromtheassessment’sresults.Thereportalsoincludesanappendixoffactsheetsdescribingindividualassessmentdetailsforeachofthespeciesandhabitattypesevaluated(Appendix3);thesefactsheetshighlighteachspecies’keyclimatesensitivitiesaswellasdatagapsofimportanceforunderstandingtheirvulnerability.Together,theinformationprovidedinthisassessmentoffersarigorousfoundationforfutureclimateadaptationeffortsaimedataddressingclimateriskstotheNooksackTribe’spriorityspeciesandhabitats.

AssessmentApproachApproachOverviewTheNooksackIndianTribe’sNaturalResourceDepartmentworkedtogetherwithTribalmembers,otherTribaldepartments,andtheUWClimateImpactsGrouptocollaborativelydevelopalistofpriorityspeciesandhabitatsofimportancetotheTribeforinclusioninthevulnerabilityassessment.ForspecieswithsufficientnaturalhistoryinformationandGISrangedata,weassessedclimatechangevulnerabilityquantitativelyusingNatureServe’sClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI).12Forspecieswithinsufficientnaturalhistoryinformationorrangedata,andforallpriorityhabitattypes,weassessedclimatechangevulnerabilityqualitatively.NatureServe’sCCVIcombinesinformationonaspecies’projectedexposuretoclimatechange,sensitivitytoclimatechange,andadaptivecapacity(Figure1),togeneratearelativerankingofvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.WechosetousetheCCVIforthisanalysisbecauseitisanopen-sourcetoolthatisfrequentlyusedandoffersarelativelyhighdegreeoftransparencycomparedwithotheravailabletools.ThewidespreadadoptionofthistoolfacilitatesresultcomparisonwithotherassessmentsbasedontheCCVI.TheCCVI’stransparencyenablesuserstoeasilymakeupdatestoanassessment,suchasaddingadditionalspeciesorincorporatingnewlyavailableinformation.Mostimportantly,theCCVIevaluatesacomprehensivesuiteof


sensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsthatmaycontributetoaspecies’climatevulnerability,offeringvaluableinformationforguidingfutureclimatechangeadaptationplanning.Inthisassessment,weevaluatedsensitivityandadaptivecapacityusingtheprimaryliteratureaswellasexistingdatabasesofspeciesnaturalhistorycharacteristicsandotherrelevantinformation.WealsoincorporatedthelocalknowledgeandexpertiseoftheTribe’sNaturalResourcesandCulturalResourcesstaff.Adetaileddescriptionofmethodologyanddatasourcesisprovidedbelow.SpeciesandHabitatSelectionThroughconsultationwithTribalmembers,theNooksackIndianTribeNaturalResourcesDepartment(NNR)compiledaninitiallistofspeciesandhabitatstobeconsideredinthevulnerabilityanalysis.3Duetothelimitedfinancialandtemporalscopeoftheproject,theassessment’sinitialproposedlistofpriorityspeciesandhabitattypeswasdrawnlargelyfromapreviousvulnerabilityassessmentpreparedbytheUWClimateImpactsGroupfortheStillaguamishTribeofIndians.4TheStillaguamishandNooksackwatershedsarelocatedapproximately~50miles(~80kilometers)apart,inwesternWashingtonState(Figure2).Thesewatershedshavecomparablegeographiesandaresimilarinbothhabitatandspeciescomposition,whichenabledustousesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorrankingsfromtheStillaguamishassessmentfortheNooksackassessment.TheClimateImpactsGroupandtheNooksackIndianTribe’sNaturalResourcestaffworkedtogetherwithTribalmemberstorefinetheinitiallisttoreachafinallistofspeciesforassessment.InWorkshop1,heldonAugust29th,2017,participantsreceivedatentativelistof28species(drawnpartiallyfromasubsetofspeciesevaluatedintheStillaguamishTribe’svulnerabilityassessment)tobeincludedintheassessment(Table1).Outofthisinitiallist,15specieswerecategorizedbyTribalmembersandstaffasculturaloreconomicprioritiesfortheTribe(Table1).Workshopparticipantschosetokeepthese15species,andaddedanadditional15speciestothelistbasedonculturaloreconomicpriorities(Table2).Thisresultedinalistof30speciesidentifiedasTribalprioritiesforassessment.Because30specieswasbeyondthescopeoftheassessment,theClimateImpactsGroupandtheNooksackNaturalResourceDepartmentfurtherrefinedthelisttoincludeatotalof23species:17specieshadbeenevaluatedpreviouslyintheStillaguamishassessment(asbudget

Figure1.Componentsofvulnerability.Theclimatechangevulnerabilityofaspeciesorhabitatisgenerallyunderstoodasbeingaproductof(1)itsexposuretoclimatechange(i.e.,howmuchclimatechangeitwillexperience),(2)itssensitivitytoclimatechange(i.e.,howmuchagivenchangeinclimatewillaffectit),and(3)itsadaptivecapacity(i.e.,itsabilitytoundergochangesthatwoulddecreaseitsexposureorsensitivity).FiguremodifiedfromGlicketal2011.3

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability


andtimeconstraintsrequiredleveragingofitsresults),andsixspecies(Americanpika,beakedhazelnut,blackbear,wetlandwapato,shotshrimp,andtheredseaurchin;Table3)hadnotbeenanalyzedpreviously.ItwasdeterminedthatfourofthespeciesthatwerenotanalyzedintheStillaguamishVulnerabilityassessment(beakedhazelnut,wetlandwapato,redseaurchin,andsportshrimp)wouldbeassessedonlyiftimepermitted.Timeconstraintsultimatelypreventedtheanalysisofthewetlandwapatoandinsufficientinformationpreventedtheanalysisoftheredseaurchin,kingcrab,andthespotshrimp.Therefore,atotalof19priorityspecieswereevaluatedinthisassessment(Table4).AcompletelistofspeciesandhabitattypesevaluatedintheassessmentcanbefoundinTable4andTable5,respectively.Thedetailedaccountprovidedofthespeciesselectionprocessmaybeusefuliffutureresourcesallowassessmentofadditionalspeciesorhabitats.Table1.The28speciesinitiallypresentedtoWorkshop1participants.Specieswithanasterisk(*)werenotedasculturaloreconomicprioritiesfortheNooksackTribe.

InitialListofSpeciesConsideredatWorkshop1AmericanPika* OregonSpotted

FrogEvergreenHuckleberry*

AmericanBeaver PileatedWoodpecker

Hazelnut*

BaldEagle Swainson’sThrush LabradorTeaBlack-tailedDeer* TrumpeterSwan* RedElderberryCanadaLynx Wolverine WetlandWapatoGreatBlueHeron* AlaskaCedar* Dyer’sWoadGrizzlyBear Bivalves* SmoothCordgrassMarbledMurrelet BogCranberry* JapaneseKnotweedMountainGoat* BroadleafCattail* MountainLion* Elk*

Table2.The15priorityspeciesaddedbyWorkshop1participants.

SpeciesAddedbyWorkshop1ParticipantsGrouse Geese CrabWesternRedcedar LongfinSmelt WildCarrotBlackBear SeaUrchin BrachenFernDevilsClub SeaCucumber GeoduckDucks Shrimp Blueberries


Table3.Thefinallistof23priorityspeciesfortheNooksackIndianTribe’sClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.Thistableincludesspeciesthatwerenotassessedduetotimeandinformationavailabilitylimitations.Specieswithanasterisk(*)wereevaluatedpreviouslyintheStillaguamishVulnerabilityAssessment.4

Table4.The19speciesultimatelyassessedintheNooksackIndianTribe'svulnerabilityassessment.Allspeciesbutbilvalves(†)wereassessedquantitativelyusingNatureServe’sCCVI.

Table5.ThesixhabitattypesassessedintheNooksackIndianTribe'svulnerabilityassessment.Allhabitatswereassessedqualitatively.

AssessmentAreaTheNooksackTribeNaturalResourcestaffselectedtheNooksackRiverwatershedastheappropriategeographicscaleforthisassessment.TobeinaccordancewiththeState’swatershedplanningactandtoalignwithpreviousreports,thegeographicextentwasextendedtoincludeallofWaterResourceArea#1(WRIA1),whichincludessomewatershedsthatdonotdrainintotheNooksackRiverbutdischargeintotheSalishSeainareasofimportancetotheTribe.Theextentoftheassessmentarea,WRIA1,wasbasedonaGISlayerdevelopedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology(Figure2).ThoughtheTribe’sUsualandAccustomedAreaextendswellbeyondtheWRIA1area,thesmallerWRIA1areawasdeterminedtobeamoreappropriatescalegiventhetimeandbudgetaryconstraintsofthisassessment.

FinalListofPrioritySpeciesfortheNooksackIndianTribeAmericanPika TrumpeterSwan* NorthernPintail* BroadleafCattail* WetlandWapatoBlack-tailedDeer* Elk* SootyGrouse* Evergreen

Huckleberry*RedSeaUrchin

GreatBlueHeron* BlackBear WesternRedcedar*

BeakedHazelnut* SpotShrimp(prawn)

MountainGoat* Bufflehead* BogCranberry* Bivalves* MountainLion* AlaskaCedar* AlaskaBlueberry* KingCrab

SpeciesAssessedinNooksackVulnerabilityAssessmentAmericanPika TrumpeterSwan NorthernPintail BroadleafCattailBlack-tailedDeer Elk SootyGrouse Evergreen

HuckleberryGreatBlueHeron BlackBear WesternRedcedar BeakedHazelnutMountainGoat Bufflehead BogCranberry Bivalves†MountainLion Alaskacedar AlaskaBlueberry

Habitat Types Assessed in Nooksack Vulnerability Assessment ForestWetland:ForestedWetlandMarine:Nearshore,GravelBeachesEstuary:SaltMarsh,Eelgrass,MudFlatRiparianMontane:Alpine,Subalpine,Meadow,Talus


QuantitativeClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment

TheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI)WeusedNatureServe’sClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI)itoquantitativelyassessspecies’relativevulnerabilitytoclimatechangewithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.TheCCVIintegratesinformationonaspecies’exposuretoclimatechange(i.e.,howmuchclimatechangeitwillexperience),itssensitivitytoclimatechange(i.e.,howmuchagivenchangeinclimatewillaffectit),anditsadaptivecapacity(i.e.,itsabilitytoundergochangesthatcoulddecreaseitsexposureorsensitivity)togeneratearelativerankingofvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Descriptionsofthecomponentsofaspecies’vulnerabilitymeasuredbytheCCVIareprovidedbelow:

• Exposuretoclimatechange.TheCCVIusesprojectedchangesinairtemperature,moistureavailability,sealevelrise,andcurrentspeciesrangedatatoestimateaspecies’exposuretoclimatechangeacrossthespeciesrangewithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.

o Directexposuretoclimatechangewasassessedbycalculatingthepercentofeachspecies’rangewithintheNooksackRiverwatershedthatisexposedtodifferentmagnitudesofprojectedchangeinairtemperatureandmoistureavailability.

o Indirectexposuretoclimatechangewasassessedbyevaluatinghowprojectedsealevelrise,anthropogenicbarriers,naturalbarriers,andclimatechangemitigationeffortsmayaffectspeciesevaluatedinthisassessment.

• Sensitivitytoclimatechange.Aspecies’sensitivitytoclimatechangewasassessedbyscoringaspeciesagainstasuiteof14factors(Table6).Examplesofsensitivityfactorsincludeaspecies’dietaryversatility,dependenceoniceorsnow,andsensitivitytocompetition.

iRelease3.0.1

Figure2.Assessmentarea.SpeciesandhabitatswereassessedatthescaleoftheNooksackwatershed(left),locatedinWashingtonStateandBritishColumbia(right).Figure:RobertNorheim.


• Adaptivecapacitytowithstandclimatechange.Aspecies’adaptivecapacitywasassessedbyscoringthespeciesagainstasuiteofsixfactors(Table6).Examplesofadaptivecapacityfactorsincludegeneticvariationwithinapopulation,phenologicalresponsestoclimatechange,anddispersalormovementcapabilities.

Table6.Indirectclimateexposureandspecies-specificsensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactors.

Factor DescriptionIndirectClimateExposureFactorsSeaLevelRise Effectsofsealevelriseonspecieshabitat

NaturalBarriers Geographicfeaturesofthelandscapethatmayrestrictaspeciesfromnaturallydispersingtonewareas

AnthropogenicBarriers Featuresofhuman-alteredlandscapes(urbanoragriculturalareas,roads,dams,culverts)thatmayhinderdispersalforterrestrialandaquaticspecies

ClimateChangeMitigation Effectsoflandusechangesresultingfromhumanresponsestoclimatechange(seawalldevelopment,windfarm,biofuelproduction)

SpeciesSensitivityandAdaptiveCapacityFactors

Dispersal/Movement Abilityofspeciestodisperseormigrateacrossthelandscapetonewlocationsasconditionschangeovertime

HistoricalThermalNiche Exposuretotemperaturevariationoverthepast30years

PhysiologicalThermalNiche Dependenceoncoolorcoldhabitatswithintheassessmentarea

HistoricalHydrologicalNiche Exposuretoprecipitationvariationoverthepast30years

PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche Dependenceonaspecificprecipitationorhydrologicregime

Disturbance Dependenceonaspecificdisturbanceregimelikelytobeimpactedbyclimatechange

DependenceonIce/Snow Dependenceonice,ice-edge,orsnow-coverhabitats

RestrictiontoUncommonGeologicFeatures

Dependenceonspecificsubstrates,soils,orphysicalfeaturessuchascaves,cliffs,orsanddunes

HabitatCreation Dependenceonanotherspeciestogeneratehabitat

DietaryVersatility Breadthoffoodtypesconsumed;dietaryspecialistsvs.generalists(animalsonly)

PollinatorVersatility Numberofpollinatorspecies(plantsonly)

PropaguleDispersal Dependenceonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal

SensitivitytoPathogensorNaturalEnemies

Pathogensandnaturalenemies(e.g.,predators,parasitoids,herbivores,andparasitevectors)thatcanincreaseorbecomemorepathogenicduetoclimatechange

Sensitivitytocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies Speciesmaysufferwhencompetitorsarefavoredbychangingclimates

InterspecificInteractions Otherinterspecificinteractionsnotincludingdiet,pollination,andhabitatcreation

GeneticVariation Measuredgeneticvariation(high,medium,low)

GeneticBottlenecks Occurrenceofbottlenecksinrecentevolutionaryhistory

ReproductiveSystem Aplant’sreproductivesystemmayserveasaproxyforaspecies’geneticvariationorcapacitytoadapttonovelclimaticconditions(plantsonly)

PhenologicalResponse Adocumentedphenologicalresponsetochangingseasonaltemperatureandprecipitationdynamics.

DocumentedResponse Thisfactorpertainstothedegreetowhichaspeciesisknowntohaverespondedtorecentclimatechange(e.g.,rangecontraction,phenology).


Thesuiteofsensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactors(Table6)wereevaluatedindependentlyforeachspeciesandwereassignedacategoricalrankingclassificationdefinedbyNatureServe’sCCVIguidelines(Youngetal.2015).1Thefivecategoricalrankingclassificationsinclude:

1. GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability2. IncreaseVulnerability3. SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability4. Neutral5. Unknown

Morethanoneofthesecategoricalrankingclassificationscanbeselectedtoindicateintermediateclassificationortocaptureuncertaintysurroundingaspecies’indirectexposure,sensitivity,oradaptivecapacity.Inaddition,notallsensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsareabletoreceivethefullrangeofcategoricalresponses,astheydonotallequallyaffectoverallspeciesvulnerability.Forexample,scoresfortheadaptivecapacityfactor“GeneticVariation”rangeonlyfromNeutraltoIncreaseVulnerability,anddonotincludetheGreatlyIncreaseVulnerabilityclassification.TheCCVIcombinesaspecies’directexposuretoclimatechange,indirectexposuretoclimatechange,andspecies-specificsensitivityandadaptivecapacityrankingstogenerateanumericalsumquantifyingaspecies’relativevulnerabilitytoclimatechange(Figure3).1Thisnumericalsumisthentranslatedtooneoffivepossibleoverallvulnerabilityrankings:

1. ExtremelyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalareaassessedextremelylikelytosubstantiallydecreaseordisappearby2050or2080.

2. HighlyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalareaassessedlikelytodecreasesignificantlyby2050or2080.

3. ModeratelyVulnerable:Abundanceand/orrangeextentwithingeographicalareaassessedlikelytodecreasesignificantlyby2050or2080.

4. LessVulnerable:Availableevidencedoesnotsuggestthatabundanceand/orrangeextentwithinthegeographicalareaassessedwillchance(increase/decrease)substantiallyby2050or2080.

5. InsufficientEvidence:Informationenteredaboutaspecies’vulnerabilityisinadequatetocalculateanoverallvulnerabilityranking.ii

iiTheindexwillcalculateaspecies’scorewithalittleas13responsestothesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactors.1


DataSourcesandClimateData1Togenerateestimatesofaspecies’directclimateexposure,indirectclimateexposure,sensitivity,andadaptivecapacity,theCCVIrequiresseveraldatainputsincludingspeciesrangedataandlifehistoryinformation;observedclimatedata;andprojectedchangesintemperature,moistureavailability,andsealevel(Table7).Whilespecies-specificlifehistoryinformationwaslargelyderivedfromdatabases,theprimaryliterature,and“grayliterature”(e.g.,theses,dissertations,agencyreports),theNooksackTribe’sNaturalResourcestaffalsoprovidedlocalinformationspecifictotheNooksackRiverwatershedviapersonalcommunicationduringprojectworkshops.ThisinformationfromTribalstaffincreasedtheaccuracyoftheassessmentbyreflectinglocalobservationsandexpertisefromwithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.

Figure3.ComponentsoftheNatureServeClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI).TheCCVImeasuresclimatechangevulnerabilitybasedondirectexposuretolocalclimatechange(e.g.,changesintemperatureandmoisture),indirectclimateexposure(e.g.,sealevelrise),andspeciessensitivityfactors(e.g.,dispersalcapacity).Theproductsofexposureandsensitivitiesgeneratesubscores,whicharesummedtogenerateaspecies’overallvulnerabilityscore.FigurereproducedfromYoungetal.2015.1


Table7.PrimarydatatypesandsourcesusedinCCVIanalysis.

WecalculatedCCVIscoresfortwotimehorizons:the2050s(2040-2069)andthe2080s(2070-2099).WeusedtemperatureandmoisturedatasetsfromtheMultivariateAdaptiveConstructedAnalogs(MACA)project,whicharedrawnfromastatisticallydownscaledglobalclimatemodel(GCM)fromtheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject5(CMIP5).5Projectionsweregeneratedforthe2050sandthe2080susingalow[RepresentativeConcentrationPathway(RCP)4.5]andahigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.TheClimateImpactsGroupcalculatedprojectedchangesinmoistureavailabilityusinganAET:PETmoisturemetric.Themoisturemetricisaratiobetweenprojectedactualevapotranspiration(AET)andpotentialevapotranspiration(PET).PETwascalculatedbasedontheoutputforaVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC)model.6Projectedchangesinthemoisturemetricweregeneratedforthe2050sandthe2080sunderbothalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(8.5)greenhousegasscenario.FortheCCVIanalysisweusedtendifferentclimatedatasets.Theseincludetwoobserveddatasetsandeightdatasetsforprojectedchangesinclimate.

DataType SourceTemperatureProjections

MACA

MoistureProjections MACAHistoricTemperature MACAHistoricMoisture MACASeaLevelRise SurgingSeasRiskZoneMap

(https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7298/-74.0070?show=satellite&projections=0-RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide)

SpeciesDistributions IUCN(http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/spatial-data);GECSC:TreeSpeciesDistributionMapforNorthAmerica(http://gec.cr.usgs.gov/data/little/)

SpeciesLifeHistory NatureServeExplorer(http://explorer.natureserve.org/);SensitivityDatabase(http://climatechangesensitivity.org/);TheBirdsofNorthAmericaOnline(http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species);USDAForestService(https://www.feis-crs.org/feis/);Primaryliterature(peer-reviewedjournals);Grayliterature(e.g.,theses,dissertations,agencyreports);NooksackTribestaff/member(personalcommunication)


Projectedchangesinannualtemperature(relativeto1970-1999)werecategorizedusingacategoricalbinningstructuredefinedintheNatureServeGuidelines.1Therearesixcategoricaltemperaturebins:

1. >6.0°F(>3.3°C)2. 5.5-6.0°F(3.1-3.3°C)warmer3. 5.1-5.5°F(2.8-3.1°C)warmer4. 4.5-5.0°F(2.5-2.7°C)warmer5. 3.9-4.4°F(2.2-2.4°C)warmer6. <3.9°F(2.2°C)warmer

Projectedchangesintheannualmoisturemetricwereclassifiedusingacategoricalbinningstructure.Lowernegativevaluesdenotemorenetdrying.Therearesixcategoricalmoisturemetricbins:

1. <-0.1192. -0.097-(-0.119)3. -0.074-(-0.096)4. -0.051-(-0.073)5. -0.028-(-0.050)6. >-0.028

DataProcessingWefirstclassifiedeachoftheeightexposurelayers(e.g.,annualtemperatureandannualHMM)intotherespectivecategoricalbinningsystemsdefinedabove.1Next,weclippedeachoftheseeightexposurelayers(nowoverlaidwithNatureServe’sdefinedbinningsystem)totheNooksackRiverwatershedusingamapdevelopedbytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology.Thisstepensuredthatwesolelyconsideredtheexposuredata(i.e.,projectedchangeintemperatureandmoistureavailability)withintheassessmentareaboundary.ThenextstepwastocliptheeightexposurelayersboundedattheNooksackRiverwatershedscalewitheachspeciesdistributionrange.ThisstepensuredthatwesolelyexaminedexposuredataacrosstherangeofaspecificspecieswithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.ItshouldbenotedthattheTribehasrecentlyconductedclimatechangestudiesandforecastingfortheNooksackwatershedinpartnershipwiththeUniversityofWashingtonandWesternWashingtonUniversityfortheapplicationoftheDistributedHydrologySoilsVegetationModel(DHSVM).7,8Althoughthemodeledresultsforwatershedhydrology,streamtemperature,andsedimentarehighlyrelevanttounderstandingclimateimpactsonspeciesandhabitats,suchdataisnotconsideredbytheCCVI.QualitativeClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment

SpeciesBivalvesweretheonlygroupofspeciesnotanalyzedusingtheCCVI.ThiswasduetoalackofbivalverangedataandbecausetheCCVIisnotcurrentlydesignedtoassessthevulnerabilityof


marinespeciestoclimatechange.1Weevaluatedbivalves’indirectclimateexposure,sensitivityfactors,andadaptivecapacityfactorswithintheNooksackRiverwatershedusingthesuiteofCCVIfactors,however,directclimateexposurecouldnotbeevaluatedduetotheabsenceofspeciesrangedata.HabitatsTheCCVIwasnotusedtoassesstheclimatechangevulnerabilityofpriorityhabitatsincludedinthisassessment(Table5).Habitatvulnerabilitywasestimatedusingacoarselow,moderate,orhighvulnerabilityrankingscalebasedonahabitat’sestimatedclimatechangesensitivityandthemagnitudeofprojectedclimatechangewithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.SensitivityscoresweretakenfromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),anonline,open-sourcedatabasethatcapturesinformationfromtheprimaryliteratureandexpertopinion.ClimateChangeSensitivityDatabasescoreswerederivedfromexpertsurveys,inwhichexpertsestimatedthesensitivitiesofvarioushabitatstoclimatechangebyworkingthroughaseriesofquestionsregardingclimatechangesensitivityfactors(i.e.,temperaturesensitivity,precipitationsensitivity,andsensitivitytoindirectfactors;furtherdetailsarecanbefoundinthedatabaseiii).Foreachclimatechangesensitivityfactor,expertsestimatedanumericsensitivityscorerangingfromone(lowsensitivity)toseven(highsensitivity)andaconfidencescorerangingfromone(lowconfidence)tofive(highconfidence).Toqualitativelyassesshabitatvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,weusedthesesensitivityscoresincombinationwiththeexposureofhabitatstoclimatechangewithintheNooksackRiverwatershed.ExposurewasestimatedusingthetemperatureandmoisturedatausedintheCCVIanalysis.Specifically,weconsideredtemperatureandmoisturemetricprojectionsforthe2050sunderthehigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.AdditionalClimateVariablesNotIncludedintheCCVITheCCVIdoesnotconsideralloftheclimatechangeimpactslikelytoaffectspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechangeintheNooksackRiverwatershed.Therefore,wedevelopedasupplementalPhysicalDriversreportthathighlightsprojectedchangesinarangeofclimate-relevantvariablesselectedbytheNooksackTribe’sNaturalResourcestaff.9Variablesconsideredincluded:

• Averagetemperature(seasonal)• Maximumtemperature(seasonal)• Minimumtemperature(seasonal)• Precipitation(seasonal)• Seasonalrunoff• Snowpack(AprilandMay)• Waterdeficit10

iiiclimatechangesensitivity.org


ResultsMoistureMetricandTemperatureProjectionsWegeneratedfourprojectionsofmeanannualmoisture,calculatedforthe2050s(2040-2069)and2080s(2070-2099)underalow(RCP4.5)andahigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Projectedchangesinthemoisturemetric,whichintegratesprojectedchangesinbothtemperatureandprecipitationthroughanevapotranspirationratio,suggestthatmoistureavailabilitywilldeclineacrosstheNooksackRiverwatershedthroughoutthe21stcentury(Figure4;Figure5).LargestdeclinesareprojectedtooccurinthehighelevationsoftheNorthCascades.

Figure1.ProjectedchangeinmeanannualmoisturefortheNooksackRiverwatershed,generatedforthe2050sand2080sunderalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Negativevaluesindicatenetdrying.Figure:RobertNorheim,ClimateImpactsGroup.


Figure5.ProjectedchangeinmeanannualmoisturefortheNooksackRiverwatershedcategorizedusingthebinningstructuredefinedintheNatureServeGuidelines.1Projectionsweregeneratedforthe2050sand2080sunderalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Negativevaluesindicatenetdrying.Figure:RobertNorheim,ClimateImpactsGroup.

Projectionsformeanannualtemperatureweregeneratedforthe2050s(2040-2069)andthe2080s(2070-2099)underbothalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario(Figure6).WithintheNooksackRiverwatershed,significantdifferenceisseenbetweentemperatureprojectionsunderthelowandhighgreenhousegasscenariosforthe2050s(2.4-2.5°Cand3.1-3.3°C,respectively;Figure6;Figure7).


Figure7.ProjectedchangeinmeanannualtemperaturefortheNooksackRiverwatershedcategorizedusingthebinningstructuredefinedintheNatureServeGuidelines.1Projectionsweregeneratedforthe2050sand2080sunderalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Figure:RobertNorheim,ClimateImpactsGroup.

Figure6.ProjectedchangeinmeanannualtemperaturefortheNooksackRiverwatershed,generatedforthe2050sand2080sunderalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Figure:RobertNorheim,ClimateImpactsGroup.


CCVIAnalysisResultsHereweprovideasummaryofresultsforthe18speciesanalyzedwithNatureServe’sCCVI(Table8).DetailedresultsforeachspeciescanbefoundinAppendix3,whichincludesquickreferencefactsheetsforeachspeciesthatdescribetheirCCVIresults,primarysensitivities,andkeyinformationgaps.Appendix2summarizestheinformationgapsforallspecies.SeetheFutureResearchNeedssection,below,foramorein-depthdiscussionofinformationgapsencounteredinthisassessment.SixspeciesanalyzedusingtheCCVI(westernredcedar,bogcranberry,Alaskablueberry,broadleafcattail,evergreenhuckleberry,andbeakedhazelnut)donotcurrentlyhaveavailableGISdatalayersforthespeciesranges.Forthesespecies,weassumedthattheirrangesspantheentireNooksackRiverwatershed–anassumptionsupportedbyNooksackTribalstaff–andusedthisastheirCCVIrangelayer.

English Name SpeciesTaxonomic

Group2050 LOW

2050 HIGH

2080 LOW

2080 HIGH

American pika Ochotona princeps Mammal EV EV EV EVBlack-taileddeer Odocoileus hemionus Mammal MV EV EV EVGreat blue heron Ardea herodias Bird MV HV HV HVMountain goat Oreamnos americanus Mammal EV EV EV EVMountain lion Puma concolor Mammal LV MV MV MVTrumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator Bird HV EV EV EVElk Cervus canadensis Mammal HV EV EV EVBlack Bear Ursus americanus Mammal MV EV EV EVBufflehead Bucephala albeola Bird MV EV EV EVAlaska cedar Callitropsis nootkatensis Plant EV EV EV EVNorthern pintail Anas acuta Bird LV MV MV MVSooty Grouse Dendragaphus fuliginosus Bird LV MV MV MVWestern Redcedar Thuja plicata Plant HV EV EV EVBog Cranberry Vaccinium oxycoccos Plant MV HV HV EVAlaska Blueberry Vaccinium alaskaense Plant MV HV HV EVBroadleaf Cattail Typha latifolia Plant MV EV EV EVEvergreen huckleberry Vaccinium ovatum Plant MV EV EV EVBeaked Hazelnut Corylus cornuta Plant MV HV HV EV

Table8.CCVIrankingsforspeciesassessedusingNatureServe'sCCVI.CCVIrankings:LV=LessVulnerable,MV=ModeratelyVulnerable,HV=HighlyVulnerable,EV=ExtremelyVulnerable.


Resultsforthe2050sunderaLowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5)MostspeciesassessedusingtheCCVIreceivedclimatechangevulnerabilityrankingsofModeratelyVulnerableby2050underalowgreenhousegasscenario(RCP4.5)(Figure8;Figure9).However,severalspeciesreceivedrankingsofExtremelyVulnerable(e.g.,Americanpika,mountaingoat,andAlaskacedar),HighlyVulnerable(e.g.,elk,trumpeterswan,andwesternredcedar),andLessVulnerable(e.g.,mountainlion,sootygrouse,andnorthernpintail).ThethreespeciesexpectedtobeExtremelyVulnerablebythe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenarioallreceivedrankingsforthePhysiologicalThermalNichefactor(Table6)thatincreasedtheiroverallclimatechangevulnerabilityrankings.TheAmericanpikaandmountaingoatreceivedGreatlyIncreaseVulnerabilityrankingsforthisfactorduetotheirextremesensitivitiestowarmtemperaturesandassociationwithcoolorcoldalpinehabitats.TheAmericanpikaandmountaingoatalsoreceivedrankingsofSomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityfortheRestrictiontoUncommonGeologicFeaturesfactor(Table6).Themountaingoat’sassociationwithescapeterrain(e.g.,steeprockyledgesandcliffs)andthepika’sdependenceonrockytalusslopesmaylimittheirabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange,relativetospeciesthatarenotdependentonuncommongeologicfeatures.OftheninespeciesexpectedtobeModeratelyVulnerabletoclimatechangebythe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,sixreceivedrankingsfortheAnthropogenicBarriersfactorthatincreasedtheiroverallvulnerabilityranking.Anthropogenicbarriers(e.g.,highways,agriculturalfields,urbanareas)maylimitaspecies’abilitytoeffectivelyshiftitsgeographicrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.Theremainingthreespecies(bufflehead,greatblueheron,andbroadleafcattail)receivedrankingsforthePhysiologicalHydrologicalNichefactor(Table6)thatincreasedtheiroverallvulnerabilityranking.Thesespeciesarereliantonsmallbodiesofwaterthatmaydryoutduringsummermonthsoraresusceptibletoprojectedincreasesinwinterfloodrisk.

Figure8.CCVIvulnerabilityrankingsforthe2050susingalowgreenhousegasscenario(RCP4.5),bytaxonomicgroup.


Resultsforthe2050sunderaHighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5)MostspeciesassessedusingtheCCVIreceivedoverallvulnerabilityrankingsofExtremelyVulnerablebythe2050sunderahigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario(Figure10;Figure11).WiththeexceptionoftheAmericanpika,mountaingoat,andAlaskacedar,allspecies’overallvulnerabilityrankingsincreasedunderthehighgreenhousegasscenario(relativetolowgreenhousescenariovulnerabilityrankings).FourofthespeciesthatwerecategorizedasModeratelyVulnerabletoclimatechangebythe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenarioincreasedtoHighlyVulnerableunderahighgreenhousegasscenario,andfivespeciesincreasedtoExtremelyVulnerableunderahighgreenhousegasscenario(Figure10;Figure

Figure10.CCVIvulnerabilityrankingsforthe2050susingahighgreenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5)andforthe2080susingalowgreenhousegasscenario(RCP4.5),bytaxonomicgroup.

Figure9.CCVIrankingsforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.CCVIrankingfortheindicatedspecieswithintheirrangesintheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(RCP4.5).Speciesfellintooneoffourcategories:LessVulnerable(green),ModeratelyVulnerable(yellow),HighlyVulnerable(orange),ExtremelyVulnerable(red).Imagecreditforspeciessilhouettesavailableonpage34ofreport.


11).AllthreespeciesexpectedtobeLessVulnerableinthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(mountainlion,sootygrouse,andnorthernpintail)experiencedincreasesinoverallvulnerabilityrankingsunderthehighgreenhousegasscenario.Changesinspecies’overallvulnerabilityrankingsbetweenthelowandhighgreenhousegasscenariosinthe2050sareexclusivelyduetothegreaterclimateexposureunderthehighscenario.Sensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorrankingsarestaticacrosstimehorizonsandgreenhousegasscenarios.TheCCVItreatsexposureasamodifierofaspecies’sensitivityandadaptivecapacity.Therefore,increasesinexposure(e.g.,warmertemperaturesorlowermoistureavailability)willmagnifytheinfluenceofasensitivityoradaptivecapacityfactoronaspecies’overallvulnerabilityscore.1

Resultsforthe2080sunderaLowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5)CCVIresultsforthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(Figure10;Figure11)areidenticaltoCCVIresultsforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thisisbecauseprojectedtemperaturechangesarealmostidenticalforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenarioand2080sunderalowGHGscenario(Figure6;Figure7).

Figure11.CCVIrankingsforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5)andthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(RCP4.5).CCVIresultsareidenticalforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenarioandthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.Speciesfellintooneoffourcategories:LessVulnerable(green),ModeratelyVulnerable(yellow),HighlyVulnerable(orange),ExtremelyVulnerable(red).Imagecreditforspeciessilhouettesavailableonpage34ofreport.


Resultsforthe2080sunderaHighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5)MostspeciesassessedusingtheCCVIreceivedclimatechangevulnerabilityrankingsofExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderahigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario(Figure12;Figure13).Mostspecies’overallvulnerabilityrankingsdidnotchangebetweenthelowandthehighgreenhousegasscenario,butthreeofthefourspeciesthatreceivedaHighlyVulnerablerankingunderthelowscenario(bogcranberry,Alaskablueberry,beakedhazelnut)receivedanExtremelyVulnerablerankingunderthehighscenario.ThiswasduetothesespeciesreceivingSomewhatIncreaserankingsfortheReproductiveSystemfactor(Table6)becausetheyarecapableofvegetativereproduction,whichisoftenassociatedwithlowlevelsofgeneticvariation(Youngetal.2015).Therankingthusreflectsthespecies’potentialforlowgeneticvariationandthusreducedcapacitytoadapttonovelclimaticconditions. Figure12.CCVIvulnerabilityrankingsforthe2080susingahigh

greenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5),bytaxonomicgroup.


IncorporationofNooksackStaffFeedbackintoCCVIRankingsTheCCVIresultsdescribedabovereflectincorporationoffeedbackprovidedbyNooksacktribalstaff.AtasecondworkshopwithTribalmembersandnaturalresourcestaffonOctober14th,2017,draftCCVIresultswerepresented,andspeciessensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorscoresweremodified,asneeded,basedonparticipants’localknowledgeoftheNooksackRiverwatershed.Subsequentmodificationsresultedinchangestooverallvulnerabilityrankingsforgreatblueheron,elk,blackbear,bufflehead,sootygrouse,andbroadleafcattail.Specifically:

Greatblueheron:PhysiologicalHydrologicalNichechangedfromSomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilitytoIncreaseVulnerability.Thisresultedinanincreaseinthespecies’overallvulnerabilityrankingfromLessVulnerabletoModeratelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,andModeratelyVulnerabletoHighlyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.ThisalsoresultedinanincreaseinitsoverallvulnerabilityrankingfromModeratelyVulnerabletoHighlyVulnerableforthe2080sunderbothalowandhighgreenhousegasscenario.Elk:AnthropogenicBarrierschangedfromSomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilitytoIncreaseVulnerability.Thisresultedinanincreaseintheelk’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromModeratelyVulnerabletoHighlyVulnerableforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenarioandHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thisalsoresultedinanincreaseintheelk’soverall

Figure13.CCVIrankingsforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.CCVIrankingfortheindicatedspecieswithintheirrangesintheNooksackRiverwatershedbythe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5).Speciesfellintooneoffourcategories:LessVulnerable(green),ModeratelyVulnerable(yellow),HighlyVulnerable(orange),ExtremelyVulnerable(red).Citationsforspeciessilhouettesavailableonpage34ofreport.


vulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderbothalowandhighgreenhousegasscenario.Blackbear:AnthropogenicBarrierschangedfromSomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilitytoIncreaseVulnerability.DisturbancechangedfromSomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilitytoNeutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability.Thesechangesresultedinanincreaseintheblackbear’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thesechangesdidnotaffecttheoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.Thesechangesalsoresultedinanincreaseintheblackbear’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,butdidnotaffectitsoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Bufflehead:SeaLevelRisechangedfromNeutraltoSomewhatIncreaseVulnerability.Thischangeresultedinanincreasethebufflehead’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangedidnotaffectitsoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangealsoresultedinanincreaseinthebufflehead’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,butdidnotaffectitsoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Sootygrouse:AnthropogenicBarrierschangedfromNeutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilitytoSomewhatIncreaseVulnerability.Thischangeresultedinanincreaseinthesootygrouse’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromLessVulnerabletoModeratelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangesdidnotaffecttheoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangealsoresultedinanincreaseinthesootygrouse’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromLessVulnerabletoModeratelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario,butdidnotaffecttheoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Broadleafcattail:PhysiologicalHydrologicalNichechangedfromNeutraltoSomewhatIncreaseVulnerability.Thischangeresultedinanincreaseinthecattail’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangedidnotaffecttheoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario.Thischangealsoresultedinanincreaseinthecattail’soverallvulnerabilityrankingfromHighlyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,butdidnotaffecttheoverallvulnerabilityrankingforthe2080sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario.


ResultsofQualitativeVulnerabilityAssessment

SpeciesBivalvesweretheonlyspeciesassessedqualitativelyinthisassessment.Weassessedbivalves’naturalhistorycharacteristicsusingthesamesuiteofclimatesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsincludedintheCCVI,butdidnotcalculateanoverallCCVIvulnerabilityranking.Detaileddescriptionsofthebivalves’sensitivitiesareprovidedintheirfactsheet(Appendix3).Habitats Sixpriorityhabitattypeswereassessedqualitativelybasedonsensitivityscores(tochangesintemperature,precipitation,andindirectfactors)andprojectedexposureforthe2050s.Eachhabitatreceivedanestimatedvulnerabilityranking(low,moderate,orhigh;Table9).Similartospeciesresults,habitatsensitivitiesscoresvariedbyhabitattype,resultinginarangeofoverallvulnerabilityscores.Asummaryofkeysensitivitiesforeachhabitatisprovidedbelow;additionaldetailscanbefoundinthehabitatfactsheets(Appendix3).Table9.QualitativeAssessmentResultsforHabitats.HabitatsidentifiedbytheTribeasahighpriorityforassessmentareshowninbold.PossiblevulnerabilityrankingsincludedLow,Moderate,andHigh.

ForestProjectedincreasesinairtemperaturewilllikelylengthenthegrowingseasoninwesternWashingtonforests,anddriveshiftsinspeciescomposition.Warmertemperaturesmayalsoexpeditethespreadofinvasivespecies,forestpests,pathogens,anddiseases.Increasesinprecipitationduringfall,winter,andspringmayresultinincreasedgrowthrates.Additionally,projectedincreasesincoolseasonprecipitationmayincreaseproductivityinwater-limitedforestslocatedindry,higherelevationregions.Conversely,decliningprecipitationduringthegrowingseasonmayleadtoreducedgrowthratesacrossforestsintheregion.Warmingtemperaturesanddecliningmoistureavailabilityduringthegrowingseasonwillalsolikelyresultinincreasedfirefrequencyandintensity.Manyspeciesincludedinthisassessmentareassociatedwithforesthabitats,includingelk,deer,blackbear,mountaingoat,mountainlion,sootygrouse,Alaskablueberry,evergreenhuckleberry,westernredcedar,andAlaskacedar.WetlandProjectedincreasesinairtemperaturemayacceleratewetlanddrying,leadingtomismatchesbetweenwhenspeciesrequirewetlandsseasonallyforreproductionormetamorphosisandwhenthewetlandsarewet.Decliningprecipitationduringsummermonthsmayalsocontributetoearlierwetlanddryingandalongerdryperiod.Assessedspeciesthataredependenton

Habitat Type Qualitative Vulnerability Ranking Forest/OldGrowthForest ModeratetoHighWetland:ForestedWetland High

Marine:Nearshore,GravelBeaches Moderate

Estuary:SaltMarsh,Eelgrass,MudFlat ModeratetoHighRiparian ModeratetoHighMontane:Alpine,Subalpine,Meadow,Talus High


forestedwetlandsincludegreatblueheron(duringthebreedingseason),northernpintail,bufflehead,trumpeterswan,andbroadleafcattail.Marine:Nearshore,GravelBeachesProjectedwarmingisexpectedtoaffectspeciescompositionofthenearshoremarineenvironment.Warmingtemperaturesalsoincreasethelikelihoodofnon-nativespeciesinvasionintonearshoremarinehabitats,byfacilitatingthespreadofspeciespreviouslyexcludedbycoldwatertemperatures.Thereisarelativelyhighdegreeofuncertaintyregardinghowthenearshoremarineenvironmentwillrespondtoprojectedchangesinprecipitation.Precipitation,especiallyextremeprecipitationevents,couldaltersedimenttransportinthemarineenvironmentviascouranddepositioninthenearshore.Oceanacidificationandsealevelrisearetwoindirectfactorsexpectedtohavesignificantimpactsonthenearshoremarineecosystem.EstuaryProjectedincreasesinairtemperatureandalongerdryseasonmayresultinmorefrequentdryingoflow-tidehabits.Forexample,warmingtemperaturesmayincreasethefrequencyofeelgrassdesiccation.However,estuariesmaybelesssensitivetosuchchangesduetotheirtolerancetorelativelyhighdegreesofvariability(e.g.,dailytidalvariation).Projectedchangesinprecipitationareimportantforfreshwaterinflowintoestuaries.Inaddition,oceanacidification,sealevelrise,andcoastalfloodingarethreeindirectfactorsexpectedtohavesignificantimpactsonthenearshoreestuaries.RiparianRiparianareaswithintheNooksackRiverwatershedarefoundbesideriversandadjacenttobodiesofwater.Riparianareastendtohavecoolermicro-climatesthansurroundinghabitat.Warmingtemperaturesanddecliningsnowpackmaylowerriverwaterlevelsduringsummermonthsandcoulddryoutsmallcreeksandlowerwatertablelevelsinadjacentfloodplains.Dryingofthesewatersourcesmaynegativelyaffectthespeciescompositionandstructureofborderingriparianhabitats.Projectedincreasesinwinterstreamflowvolumeandtimingwillalsoaffectwatertablesandsoilmoisturelevelswithinriparianhabitats.Winterfloodriskisalsoprojectedtoincrease.Riparianandfloodplainareasmaythusbecomewetterandinundatedmorefrequentlyinwinterunderfutureclimatescenarios.Duetotheimportanceofsoilmoisturelevelstoriparianspeciesstructureandcomposition,thishabitattypeisalsosensitivetochangesinprecipitation.Inadditiontotemperatureandprecipitationsensitivity,riparianhabitatsarealsosensitivetodisturbancefromcompetitionfromnon-nativespecies.Montane:Alpine,Subalpine,Meadow,TalusProjectedincreasesinairtemperatureareexpectedtoincreasevegetationgrowthandproductivityinhigh-elevationzonesthathavehistoricallybeenenergy-limitedbycoldtemperaturesanddeepandexpansivesnowpack.Warmingtemperaturesarealsoexpectedtofacilitatetreeestablishmentinmeadowsandothersuitablealpineareas,wheretreeshavepreviouslybeenexcludedbycoldtemperatures,deepsnowpack,andharshconditions.Declines


inwintersnowpackarealsolikelytoextendthegrowingseason,butwillnegativelyaffectsnowdependentspecies.Declinesinsummerprecipitationcouldleadtoreductionsinbiomassproductionandincreasedlikelihoodoffire.Assessedspeciesdependentonmontanehabitatsincludemountaingoat,elk,andAmericanpika.

KeyFindingsHere,wediscusskeyfindingsofourquantitativeandqualitativeanalyses,highlightingtheprimarysensitivitiescontributingtovulnerabilityforeachtaxonomicgroup(mammals,birds,andplants).Wealsodiscussfindingsofourqualitativeassessmentofpriorityhabitattypes.CCVIforthe2050sand2080sOverallvulnerabilityscoresrangedwidely,fromLessVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerable,butthemajorityofspeciesrankedasModeratelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(Figure9)andExtremelyVulnerableforthe2050sunderahighgreenhousegasscenario(Figure11).MostspeciesalsorankedasExtremelyVulnerableforthe2080sunderbothlow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenarios(Figure11;Figure13).Twosensitivityfactors,HistoricalThermalNicheandAnthropogenicBarriers,areexpectedtoincreasevulnerabilityforalmostallspeciesanalyzedwiththeCCVI(Figure14;Appendix1).BecausespecieswithintheNooksackRiverwatershedhaveexperiencedarelativelynarrowrangeoftemperaturevariationoverthepastthirtyyears,theyareexpectedtohaverelativelylowthermaltolerancestolargechangesintemperature.Inaddition,anthropogenicbarriers(e.g.,highways,dams,anddevelopedareas)inthewatershedareexpectedtoincreasespecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechangebyimpedingtheirabilitytodisperseacrossthelandscapetotrackshiftingareasofclimatesuitability.


Figure14.Climatesensitivities,adaptivecapacityfactors,andindirectclimaticexposurescontributingtoCCVIrankingsbytaxonomicgroup.Onlysensitivitiesthatincreasevulnerabilityareshown(seeTable6forfulldescriptionsofsensitivityfactors).

MammalsMammalspeciesexhibitedawiderangeofoverallvulnerabilityrankingsinthisassessment,fromLessVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerable.NaturalBarriers,AnthropogenicBarriers,andHistoricalThermalNiche(Figure14)werethefactorsmostresponsibleforincreasingmammals’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Barrierswithinthewatershedincludehighmountainranges,largelakes,highways,urbancenters,andagriculturalfields,allofwhichcanlimitamammal’sabilitytotrackshiftingclimateconditions.PhysiologicalThermalNiche,DisturbanceRegime,DependenceonIce/Snow,andRestrictiontoUncommonGeologicFeaturesalsoincreasedsomemammals’estimatedvulnerabilitytoclimatechange(Figure14).PhysiologicalThermalNiche,DependenceonIce/Snow,andUncommonGeologicFeaturesallincreasevulnerabilityfortheAmericanpikaandmountaingoat,becauseoftheirassociationwithcold,snowysubalpineandalpinehabitats.Inaddition,dependenceonaspecificdisturbanceregimeinfluencedtheoverallvulnerabilityrankingsoftheblackbearandthemountaingoat.ThemountainlionistheonlymammalestimatedtobeLessVulnerabletoclimatechangebythe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario(Figure9).Themountainlionisahabitatgeneralistwithadiversediet(Appendix3),andwilllikelybeabletoadapttoshiftingclimateconditionsassumingbarriersdonotinhibititsabilitytotrackshiftingclimateconditions.BirdsOverallvulnerabilityrankingsforbirdsalsorangedfromLessVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerable(Figure8;Figure10;Figure12).HistoricalThermalNiche,PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche,andDependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitatGenerationarethefactorsmostresponsibleforincreasingbirds’overallvulnerabilityrankings(Table6;Figure14).


PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche,whichevaluatesaspecies’dependenceonaspecificprecipitationorhydrologicregime,influencedtheoverallvulnerabilityrankingsofthegreatblueheron,trumpeterswan,bufflehead,andthenorthernpintail(Appendix1).Forexample,projectedincreasesinwinterfloodriskmaynegativelyaffecttrumpeterswanfledglingsurvivalduetodeclinesinnestinghabitatsuitability.11DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitatGenerationincreasedtheoverallvulnerabilityscoreforthetrumpeterswanandthebufflehead.Forexample,thebuffleheadexclusivelynestsintreecavitiesconstructedbythenorthernflickerandthepileatedwoodpecker.12Speciesthatrelyonasmallnumberofspeciesforhabitatornestingsitesarelikelytobemorevulnerabletoclimatechangethanspecieswithmoregeneralizedhabitatrequirements.PlantsOverallvulnerabilityrankingsofplantspeciesincludedinthisassessmentrangefromModeratelyVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerable(Figure11,Figure12,Figure13).HistoricalThermalNiche,AnthropogenicBarriers,PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche,andReproductiveSystemwerethefactorsmostresponsibleforincreasingplants’overallvulnerabilityrankings(Figure14).PhysiologicalHydrologicalNiche,whichevaluatesaspecies’dependenceonaspecificprecipitationorhydrologicregime,influencedtheoverallvulnerabilityrankingsoftheAlaskacedar,bogcranberry,andbroadleafcattail.Forexample,bogcranberrygrowsinbogsandfensthataresaturatedforthemajorityoftheyear.13TheReproductiveSystemfactorinfluencedtheoverallvulnerabilityrankingoftheAlaskablueberry,evergreenhuckleberry,andbeakedhazelnut.ThesespeciesreceivedSomewhatIncreaserankingsfortheReproductiveSystemfactorbecausetheyarecapableofvegetativereproduction,whichisoftenassociatedwithlowlevelsofgeneticvariation.1Specieswithlowlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobelessabletoadapttochangingclimateconditionsthanpopulationswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversity.KeyFindingsforHabitatsAllsixhabitattypesevaluatedinthisassessmentareestimatedtobeatleastModeratelyVulnerabletoclimatechange(Table9)andtwohabitattypesareestimatedtobeHighlyVulnerable,includingwetlandsandmontaneregions.Eachofthesehabitatsisexpectedtobehighlyvulnerableduetotheirrelativelyhighclimatesensitivityandprojectedexposuretofuturechangesinbothtemperatureandprecipitation.

DiscussionPriorityspeciesfortheNooksackTribearelargelyexpectedtobeExtremelyVulnerabletoclimatechangeunderbothtimehorizons(2050sand2080s)andgreenhousegasscenarios(lowandhigh)evaluatedinthisassessment.Theoneexceptiontothistrendistheoverallvulnerabilityscoresforthe2050sunderalowgreenhousegasscenario,wherethemajorityofspeciesreceiveoverallclimatechangevulnerabilityrankingsofModeratelyVulnerable.


Whilemammal,bird,andplantspeciesareallexpectedtobevulnerabletoclimatechangetosomedegree,assumptionsintheCCVImethodologylikelyresultedinlowerrelativevulnerabilityscoresforthebirdspeciesevaluatedinthisassessment.Specifically,theCCVIassumestherearenoanthropogenicornaturalbarriersfortemperatebirdspecies,astheyareexpectedtobeabletoflyoveroraroundthesebarriers.1Alternatively,overallvulnerabilityrankingsforthemammalandplantspeciesassessedrangefromLessVulnerabletoExtremelyVulnerabledependingonthetimehorizonandgreenhousegasscenarioconsidered.AnthropogenicDispersalBarriersandSensitivitytoaDisturbanceRegimeincreasedthevulnerabilitiesofmostmammalandplantspeciesassessed(Figure14).ComparingResultswithotherAssessmentsAsdiscussedearlier,speciesandhabitatsevaluatedinthisassessmentwereprimarilydrawnfromanearliervulnerabilityassessmentpreparedbytheClimateImpactsGroupfortheStillaguamishTribeofIndians.4Overall,species’vulnerabilityrankingsintheStillaguamishassessmentweresignificantlylowerthanthevulnerabilityrankingsintheNooksackassessment.Weidentifiedtwoprimarymethodologicaldifferencesbetweenthetwoassessmentsthatcouldexplainthisdiscrepancy:(1)theversionoftheCCVIusedineachassessment,and(2)theclimatedatasetsusedtoevaluateexposuretoprojectedchangesintemperatureandmoistureavailability.TheStillaguamishassessmentwasconductedusinganolderversionoftheCCVI(version2.1);thenewerversion(version3.0)incorporatesnumerousupdates,including–mostnotably–theeliminationoftheSomewhatDecreaseVulnerabilityandDecreaseVulnerabilityrankingscoresforsensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactors.Version3.0alsoeliminatestheoverallvulnerabilityrankingofLessVulnerable.ToassesswhethertheremovaloftheSomewhatDecreaseVulnerabilityandDecreaseVulnerabilityscoresaffectedoverallvulnerabilityrankings,were-ranseveralspeciesincludedintheStillaguamishassessmentandchangedthosesensitivityfactorspreviouslyscoredasSomewhatDecreaseorDecreasetoNeutral.ChangingthesescorestoNeutralsignificantlyincreasedtheoverallvulnerabilityscoresforthespeciestested.DifferencesbetweenthetwoCCVIversionsisthusthemostlikelyexplanationforthehighervulnerabilityrankingsseenintheNooksackassessment.TheStillaguamishassessmentalsousedtheCMIP3multi-modelclimatedataset,ratherthanthemorerecentCMIP5multi-modeldatasetusedintheNooksackassessment.However,projectedwarmingunderCMIP3andCMIP5issimilarforcomparablegreenhousegasemissions.14Thus,differencesbetweentheclimatedatasetsusedareunlikelytohavecontributedtodifferencesinresultsbetweentheStillaguamishandNooksackvulnerabilityassessments.LimitationsoftheassessmentWhileNatureServe’sCCVIisausefultoolforrapidlyassessingspecies’relativevulnerabilitytoclimatechange,ithasseverallimitations.Forexample,theCCVIdoesnotuseclimatesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorstodirectlyassesspopulationdynamics,orexaminetheeffectofclimatechangeonpopulationvitalrates(e.g.,fecundity,survival).Ifpopulation-level


informationandresultsareakeymanagementinterest,demographicmodelswilllikelybebetterabletoprovidetheseresults.AbroaderlimitationoftheCCVIisthelimiteddegreetowhichuncertaintyisreflectedinitsresults.TheCCVIdoescaptureuncertaintyinindirectclimateexposure,sensitivity,andadaptivecapacityfactorsbyallowinguserstoselectmorethanonecategoricalrankingclassificationforeachfactor.However,climatemodeluncertainty(i.e.,directexposuretoclimatechange)isnotreflectedinCCVIresults.Tohelpaddressuncertaintyaroundfuturecarbonemissionsscenarios,weperformedtheCCVIanalysisunderbothalow(RCP4.5)andhigh(RCP8.5)greenhousegasscenario.Perhapsmoreofaconcernisthatprojectedchangesindirectclimateexposurearedevelopedusingannualaverages,whenseasonalchanges(e.g.,reducedmoistureavailabilityinsummer)mayprovemoreimportantforspecies’climatechangevulnerability.Themostimportantcaveatforappropriatelyinterpretingandapplyingresultsfromthisassessment–bothquantitativeandqualitative–isthatvulnerabilityrankingshavebeenshowntodifferdependingontheassessmentapproachortoolused.15Thatis,hadweusedadifferenttoolorassessmentapproach,itislikelythatresultingrankingswouldbeatleastsomewhatdifferentfromthosefoundinthisassessment.Resultsfromthisassessmentshouldthusbeseenasusefulhypothesesofspecies’andhabitats’relativeclimatechangevulnerability,butnotasconclusivemeasuresofabsolutevulnerability.Wethereforesuggestthatthemostvaluableandrobustapplicationoftheseresultswillcomefromconsideringwhyagivenrankingwasgiven(i.e.,consideringspecificexposure,sensitivity,andadaptivecapacityrankings),ratherthanfocusingonoverallvulnerabilityrankings.Understandingtheseunderlyingdriversofspecies’andhabitats’vulnerabilitieswillalsobemostusefulinidentifyingfutureadaptationresponsesaimedatmaximizingclimatechangeresilience.

FutureResearchNeedsMostofthespeciesandhabitatsevaluatedinthisassessmenthadadequatedataforassessingtheirvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.However,thereareareaswhereadditionalresearchwouldimproveourunderstandingoftheclimateexposuresandsensitivitiesunderlyingtheclimatevulnerabilityofthespeciesandhabitatsassessed(Appendix2).Forexample,sevenspeciesconsideredinthisassessmentlackedGISrangedata,acriticalinputforvulnerabilityassessmentsandadaptationplanning.Forsixofthesespecies,wemadetheassumptionthattheirgeographicrangeincludestheentireNooksackRiverwatershed,therebyallowingtheirinclusionintheCCVIanalysis.HavingexplicitrangedataforthesespecieswouldincreasetheaccuracyoftheiroverallCCVIresults,asitwouldmorepreciselyreflectthemagnitudeoftheirprojectedclimateexposurewithintheassessmentarea.Mostspeciesalsolackedinformationregardingtheirphenologicalresponsestoclimatechange,sensitivitytopathogensornaturalenemies,anddocumentedresponsetoclimatechange(Appendix2).Astheseinformationgapsareaddressed,vulnerabilityrankingsandadaptationstrategiesshouldbere-visited.


NextStepsTheNooksackIndianTribeNaturalResourceClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentrepresentsanimportantfirststepintheTribe’sabilitytoassessclimaterisksandprepareforfutureclimateimpactsonpriorityspeciesandhabitats.Resultsofthisassessmentsuggestthatwhilevulnerabilityislikelytovaryacrossspeciesandhabitats,manyoftheTribe’spriorityspeciesandhabitatsmaybehighlyorextremelyvulnerabletoclimatechangebytheendofthecentury.Inadditiontoidentifyingwhichspeciesandhabitatsareexpectedtobevulnerabletoclimatechange,thisassessmenthighlightsthespecificclimatesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsthatunderliethisvulnerability.Thisknowledgeofwhyaspeciesorhabitatisvulnerabletoclimatechange,andwhatinformationgapsremaininourunderstandingofitsvulnerability,maybeparticularlyusefulinidentifyingactivitiesthatmayhelptoreducevulnerability.DevelopingaclimatechangeadaptationplanthatidentifiesspecificstrategiesandactionsforreducingclimaterisksmaythusbeapowerfulnextsteptowardincreasingtheresilienceofpriorityspeciesandhabitatsfortheNooksackTribe.

References

1Young,B.E.,Byers,E.,Hammerson,G.,Frances,A.,Oliver,L.,Treher,A.2015.Guidelinesfor

usingtheNatureServeclimatechangevulnerabilityindex,version3.0.Arlington,VA.2Oppenheimer,M.,M.Campos,R.Warren,J.Birkmann,G.Luber,B.O’Neill,andK.Takahashi,

2014:Emergentrisksandkeyvulnerabilities.In:ClimateChange2014:Impacts,Adaptation,andVulnerability.PartA:GlobalandSectoralAspects.ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Field,C.B.,V.R.Barros,D.J.Dokken,K.J.Mach,M.D.Mastrandrea,T.E.Bilir,M.Chatterjee,K.L.Ebi,Y.O.Estrada,R.C.Genova,B.Girma,E.S.Kissel,A.N.Levy,S.MacCracken,P.R.Mastrandrea,andL.L.White(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA,pp.1039-1099.

3Glick,P.,B.A.Stein,andN.A.Edelson,editors.2011.ScanningtheConservationHorizon:AGuidetoClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.NationalWildlifeFederation,Washington,D.C.

4Krosby,M.,Morgan,H.,Case,M.,WhitelyBinder,L.2016.StillaguamishTribeNaturalResourcesClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington.

5Taylor,K.E.etal.2012.AnoverviewofCMIP5andtheexperimentdesign.BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety,93(4),485-498,doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

6Gao,H.,Q.Tang,X.Shi,C.Zhu,T.J.Bohn,F.Su,J.Sheffield,M.Pan,D.P.Lettenmaier,andE.F.Wood,2010:WaterBudgetRecordfromVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC)Model.InAlgorithmTheoreticalBasisDocumentforTerrestrialWaterCycleDataRecords(inreview).


7Murphy,R.D.2016.ModelingtheEffectsofForecastedClimateChangeandGlacierRecession

onLateSummerStreamflowintheUpperNooksackRiverBasin.WesternWashingtonUniversity.

8Murphy,R.,R.Mitchell,C.Bandaragoda,C.Frans,E.Istanbulluoglu,andO.Grah.2017.ModelingtheImpactsofClimateChangeScenariosonStreamflowintheNooksackRiverBasin,Washington,USA.Unpublished.

9Morgan,H.,R.Norheim,andM.Krosby,and.2017.MapsofClimateandHydrologicChangefortheNooksackRiverWatershed.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington.

10Runge,M.C.,Converse,S.J.,Lyons,J.E.2011.Whichuncertainty?Usingexpertelicitationandexpectedvalueofinformationtodesignanadaptiveprogram.BiologicalConservation,144:1214-1223.

11Tesky,JulieL.1993.Cygnusbuccinator.In:FireEffectsInformationSystem,[Online].U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory(Producer).

12Gauthier,Gilles.2014.Bufflehead(Bucephalaalbeola),version2.0.InTheBirdsofNorthAmerica(P.G.Rodewald,editor).CornellLabofOrnithology,Ithaca,NewYork,USA.https://doi.org/10.2173/bna.67

13Matthews,RobinF.1992.Vacciniumoxycoccos.In:FireEffectsInformationSystem,[Online].U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory(Producer).Available:http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/[2017,November5].

14Mauger,G.S.,J.H.Casola,H.A.Morgan,R.L.Strauch,B.Jones,B.Curry,T.M.BuschIsaksen,L.WhitelyBinder,M.B.Krosby,andA.K.Snover.2015.StateofKnowledge:ClimateChangeinPugetSound.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington,Seattle.

15Lankford,A.J.,Svancara,L.K.,Lawler,J.J.andVierling,K.2014.Comparisonofclimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentsforwildlife.WildlifeSocietyBulletin38:386-394.

Silhouetteimagecredits:Americanpika.ModifiedfromWeClipArtfromhttp://weclipart.com/mouse+silhouette+clip+artAlaskablueberry.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comBeakedhazelnut.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comBlackbear.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comBlack-taileddeer.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comBogcranberry.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comBroadleafcattail.Iconfromhttp://clipart-library.com/clipart/56720.htmBufflehead.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comElk.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comEvergreenhuckleberry.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comGreatblueheron.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comMountaingoat.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comMountainlion.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.comNorthernPintail.Iconbyhttp://naturemappingfoundation.org.htmlTrumpeterswan.IconmadebyFreepikfromwww.flaticon.com


Appendix1NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI): Overall Rankings and Indirect Climate Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity Sub-Scores. DetaileddescriptionofsensitivityfactorsisprovidedinTable6(pg.9).SensitivityScores:

(1)GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability:GI

(2)IncreaseVulnerability:Inc

(3)SomewhatIncreaseVulnerability:SI

(4)Neutral:N

(5)Unknown

VulnerabilityRankings:

(1)ExtremelyVulnerable:EV

(2)HighlyVulnerable:HV

(3)ModeratelyVulnerable:MV

(4)LessVulnerable:LV


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Group B1 B2a B2b B3 C1 C2ai C2aii C2bi C2bii C2c C2d C3 C4a C4b C4c C4d C4e C5a C5b C6 D1 D2 D3 D42050 LOW

2050 HIGH

2080 LOW

2080 HIGH

American pika Ochotona princeps Mammal N Inc N/SI N SI Inc GI N N N SI SI N N N/A N U U N SI N/A N/A N U EV EV EV EVBlack-taileddeer Odocoileus hemionus Mammal N SI SI N N Inc N N N N N N N N N/A N SI SI N N N/A N/A U U MV EV EV EVGreat blue heron Ardea herodias Bird N N N N N Inc N N Inc N N N N N N/A N U U N N N/A N/A U U MV HV HV HVMountain goat Oreamnos americanus Mammal N SI SI N N SI GI N N N/SI N/SI SI N N N/A N U U N Inc N/A N/A U U EV EV EV EVMountain lion Puma concolor Mammal N N SI N N Inc N N N N N N N N N/A N U N N N N/A N/A U U LV MV MV MVTrumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator Bird N N N N N Inc N N Inc N N N N/SI N N/A N U U U U Inc N/A U U HV EV EV EVElk Cervus canadensis Mammal N SI Inc N N Inc N N N/SI N N N N N N/A N U U N N N/A N/A U U HV EV EV EVBlack Bear Ursus americanus Mammal N SI Inc N N Inc N N N N/SI N N N N N/A N U N N N N/A N/A U U MV EV EV EVBufflehead Bucephala albeola Bird SI N N N N Inc N N SI N N N INC N N/A N U N N N N/A N/A U U MV EV EV EVAlaska cedar Callitropsis nootkatensis Plant N N SI N SI Inc SI N SI N INC N N N/A N N N/SI N N U U N U U EV EV EV EVNorthern pintail Anas acuta Bird N N N N N SI N N Inc N N N N N N/A N U N N N N/A N/A U U LV MV MV MVSooty Grouse Dendragaphus fuliginosus Bird N N SI N N Inc N N N N N N N N N/A N U N N N N/A N/A U U LV MV MV MVWestern Redcedar Thuja plicata Plant N N N/SI N SI Inc N N N/SI N/SI N N N N/A N N SI N N Inc N/A N/A U U HV EV EV EVBog Cranberry Vaccinium oxycoccos Plant N N SI N N Inc N N SI N N SI N N/A N N U N N N N/A N/A U U MV HV HV EVAlaska Blueberry Vaccinium alaskaense Plant N N SI N N Inc N N N N N N N N/A SI N U N N U U SI U U MV HV HV EVBroadleaf Cattail Typha latifolia Plant N N N N N Inc N N SI N/SI N N N N/A N N U U N Inc N/A N/A U U MV EV EV EVEvergreen huckleberry Vaccinium ovatum Plant N N SI N N Inc N N N N N SI N N/A SI N U N N U U SI N U MV EV EV EVBeaked Hazelnut Corylus cornuta Plant N N N/SI N N Inc N N N SI N N N N/A N N U U N U U SI U U MV HV HV EVBivalves Bivalvia Mollusc GI N SI N N U U U N N N` N N N N/A N U U N U U N/A U U

TableA1-1.SensitivityfactorrankingsandCCVIrankingsforspeciesassessedusingNatureServe'sCCVI.Sensitivityrankings:U=Unknown,N=Neutral,SI=Somewhat

IncreaseVulnerability,Inc=IncreaseVulnerability,GI=GreatlyIncreaseVulnerability.CCVIrankings:LV=LessVulnerable,MV=ModeratelyVulnerable,HV=Highly

Vulnerable,EV=ExtremelyVulnerable.


Appendix2

Information Gaps for Assessed Species

InformationStatus:

(1)InformationAvailable:

(2)Non-applicable:

(3)Unknown:

InformationAvailableindicatessufficientdatatoevaluateaspeciesforaCCVIfactor;Non-ApplicableindicatesaCCVIfactorthatisnon-applicableforagivenspecies(e.g.,“numberof

pollinators”foramammal).Unknownindicatesaninformationgap.


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Group B1 B2a B2b B3 C1 C2ai C2aii C2bi C2bii C2c C2d C3 C4a C4b C4c C4d C4e C5a C5b C6 D1 D2 D3 D4

American pika Ochotona princeps MammalBlack-taileddeer Odocoileus hemionus MammalGreat blue heron Ardea herodias BirdMountain goat Oreamnos americanus MammalMountain lion Puma concolor MammalTrumpeter swan Cygnus buccinator BirdElk Cervus canadensis MammalBlack Bear Ursus americanus MammalBufflehead Bucephala albeola BirdAlaska cedar Callitropsis nootkatensis PlantNorthern pintail Anas acuta BirdSooty Grouse Dendragaphus fuliginosus BirdWestern Redcedar Thuja plicata PlantBog Cranberry Vaccinium oxycoccos PlantAlaska Blueberry Vaccinium alaskaense PlantBroadleaf Cattail Typha latifolia PlantEvergreen huckleberry Vaccinium ovatum PlantBeaked Hazelnut Corylus cornuta PlantBivalves Bivalvia Mollusc

TableA2-1.Informationgapsforspeciesassessedinthisassessment.Green=informationavailableforthissensitivityfactor,Orange=sensitivityfactorisnotapplicableforthespecies,Gray=Sensitivityfactorsthatarecurrentlyunknown.


Appendix3SpeciesandHabitatsFactSheetsAmericanpika Pg.39Black-taileddeer Pg.41Greatblueheron Pg.43Mountaingoat Pg.45Mountainlion Pg.47Trumpeterswan Pg.49Elk Pg.51Blackbear Pg.53Bufflehead Pg.55Alaskacedar Pg.57Northernpintail Pg.69Sootygrouse Pg.61Westernredcedar Pg.63Bogcranberry Pg.65Alaskablueberry Pg.67Broadleafcattail Pg.69Evergreenhuckleberry Pg.71Beakedhazelnut Pg.73Bivalves Pg.75 Estuary Pg.77Forest/Old-GrowthForest Pg.78Montane Pg.79Marine-Nearshore Pg.80Riparian Pg.81Wetland Pg.82FactSheetReferencesPg.83


Americanpika(Ochotonaprinceps)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralTheAmericanpikadoesnotinhabitcoastalregionsandisthusunlikelytobeaffectedbysealevelrise.NaturalBarriers|IncreaseVulnerabilityNon-mountainousareashavebeenidentifiedasnaturaldispersalbarriersfortheAmericanpika.16Morethan50%ofthepika’scurrentdistributionintheNooksackwatershedissurroundedbylow-elevationforest,whichmayserveasadispersalbarrier.17NaturalbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityoftheAmericanpikatoadjustitsrange,bothattitudinallyandlatitudinally,inresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhileroadshavebeenshowntonegativelyaffectAmericanpikahabitat,18roaddensityinpikahabitatwithintheNooksackwatershedisnotedasbeingrelativelylow;mostsuitablehabitatisinareasdesignatedaswilderness.However,whereroadsdoexist,thesebarrierstomigrationmaylimitthepika’sabilitytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsarenotlikelytoaffectAmericanpikahabitat,whichincludehighelevationrocky,talusslopesandlowerelevationgrasslands.19DispersalandMovementAbility|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAmericanpikahavesmallhomeranges(reportedhomerangesspan0.3-0.5hectares),andarenotlocalorlong-distancemigrants.TheAmericanpika'spoordispersalabilitydecreasesthelikelihoodthatthespecieswillbeabletoadjustitsrangetokeeppacewithshiftingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|GreatlyIncreaseVulnerabilityTheAmericanpikaisextremelysensitivetowarmtemperatures.ProjectedincreasesinairtemperaturearelikelytonegativelyaffecttheAmericanpika,whichisdependentoncooltemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralTheAmericanpikaisnotdependentonaspecifichydrologicniche.ItisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofAmericanpikahabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralFireisconsideredanimportantdisturbanceeventformaintainingmeadowhabitatsbylimitingtreeencroachment.18Projectedincreasesinannualareaburned20arethusunlikelytonegativelyaffectthepika.


DependenceonIceorSnow|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityExtendedsnowcover(e.g.,longerthantwoweeks)mayincreasethelikelihoodofpikaoccupancywithinotherwisesuitablehabitat.18Projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpack14maythusnegativelyaffectAmericanpikahabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheAmericanpikaexclusivelyinhabitsrockytalusslopesbetweenthetalus-meadowinterface.19Itsassociationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisexpectedtolimitthepika’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralTheAmericanpikaisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralTheAmericanpikaisanherbivorewithadietlargelyconsistingofgrasses,forbes,sedges,andoccasionallywoodyvegetation.19Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralAmericanpikaarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownCoyotes,weasels,martens,raptors,andcorvidsareallpredatorsoftheAmericanpika.ItisunknownwhethersomeofthesespecieswillfarebetterthantheAmericanpikaunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownTheAmericanpikaandlivestockwilloccasionallyforageforsimilarvegetation,dependingonlocation.18ItisunknownwhetherlivestockwillfarebetterthantheAmericanpikaunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralTheAmericanpikaisnotdependentoninterspecificinteractions.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAmericanpikahavebeenobservedtohavelowlevelsofgeneticdiversityinpopulationsatthenorthernendofitsrange.Specieswithlowlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobelessabletoadapttochangingclimaticconditions.Phenology|NeutralPikahabitatintheNooksackwatershedhasbeenbecomingsnowfreeearlierintheyearoverthepastfivetosixyears,andpikavocalizationshavebeenobservedearlierinyearswithearliersnowmelt.17


Black-TailedDeer/MuleDeer(Odocoileushemionus)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthemuledeer'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhilemuledeeraregooddispersers,ruggedmountainterraincanactasbarrierstomovement.21Inaddition,post-firedeadfallaccumulationcanimpededispersal.22Naturalbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityofthemuledeertoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityFencesareamajorbarriertomuledeermovementinthewesternU.S.Urban,suburban,orruralhousingdevelopmentscanalsoobstructmuledeermovement.23Thesedispersalbarriersmaylimitthemuledeer’sabilitytoadjustitsrangeresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectmuledeerhabitatwithintheassessmentarea.DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralMuledeerhaveexcellentdispersalabilities.Researchsuggeststhatlongermuledeerdispersaleventsmaybemorecommoninpatchyenvironmentswithgreaterdistancesbetweensuitablehabitatareas.24Themuledeer’shighdispersalcapacityincreasesthelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralMuledeerdistributionisnotsignificantlyaffectedbythermalcharacteristicsoftheenvironmentintheassessmentarea.24Muledeerareawide-rangingspeciesthatinhabitareaswithvaryingtemperatureregimes.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralMuledeerarenotdependentonaspecifichydrologicniche.Itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofmuledeerhabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralMuledeerareknowntograzeonearlysuccessionalvegetationthatre-colonizesafterdisturbanceevents.22Muledeerarealsoassociatedwithfire-dependentandfire-adaptedplantspeciesandcommunities.Projectedincreasesinannualareaburned20arethusunlikelytonegativelyaffectmuledeerhabitat.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralThemuledeerisnotdependentoniceorsnowassociatedhabitats.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytonegativelyaffectmuledeer.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralMuledeerhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthemuledeer’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThemuledeerisahabitatgeneralistanddoesnotdependonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralMuledeerconsumeawidevarietyofgrasses,forbs,andbrowse.Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralMuledeerarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTherearemanybacterialdiseasesandparasitesthatnegativelyaffectmuledeer,someofwhichmaybecomemoreprevalentorsevereunderclimatechange.Forexample,increasingincidenceofdroughtandwarmingtemperaturesmaybenefitbitinggnatpopulations,whichtransmitbluetonguevirustomuledeer.Sensitivitytopathogensmaythusincreasemuledeer’svulnerabilitytoclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityMuledeerhabitatusemaybeindirectlyaffectedbyotherwildlifespeciesthatmaybenefitfromclimatechange.Forexample,muledeerhabitatselectionhasbeenshowntobestronglyinfluencedbyavoidanceofareasinhabitedbyelk.Elkcaneatagreatervarietyofforagethanmuledeer,whichmaygiveelkacompetitiveadvantageunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThemuledeerisnotdependentoninterspecificinteractions.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralMuledeerhavebeenshowntohavehighlevelsofgeneticdiversitythroughoutitsrange.Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimaticconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


GreatBlueHeron(Ardeaherodias)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):HighlyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):HighlyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):HighlyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthegreatblueheron'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantnaturalbarrierstogreatblueheronmigration.Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthegreatblueherontoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantanthropogenicbarrierstogreatblueheronmigration.Itisunlikelythatanthropogenicbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthegreatblueherontoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsarenotlikelytoaffectgreatblueheronhabitat,whichincludefreshwaterwetmeadowsandmarshes,brackishmarshes,lakes,andrivers.25DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralThegreatblueheronisalocalmigrant.25Thegreatblueheron'sexcellentdispersalabilityincreasesthelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralGreatblueheronsareadaptedtoawiderangeoftemperatureregimesandarethereforeunlikelytobedirectlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThegreatblueheroninhabitscoastallowlands,wetlands,marshes,wetmeadows,vernalpools,streamchannels(natural,irrigation,anddrainagechannels),andsprings.17,26Eachofthesehabitatsmaybeaffectedbyprojectedincreasesinwinterfloodriskanddeclinesinsummerlowflows.Thegreatblueheronisalsoexpectedtobenegativelyaffectedifwetlandsdryoutinsummermonths,diminishingitspreybase.17DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralThegreatblueheronisnotthoughttobesensitivetodisturbanceregimesthatmaybealteredbyclimatechange.DependenceonIceorSnow|Neutral


Thegreatblueheronisnotdependentoniceorsnowassociatedhabitats.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectgreatblueheronhabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralGreatblueheronhabitat(e.g.,freshwaterandbrackishmarshes,lakes,andrivers)isnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.25Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthegreatblueheron’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThegreatblueheronisanaquatichabitatgeneralist,andisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralThegreatblueheronhasabroaddiet,includingfish,insects,crustaceans,amphibians,reptiles,andsmallmammals.25SpeciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechangePollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralThegreatblueheronisnotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownBaldeaglesaretheprimarypredatorofthegreatblueheron.Crowsandravenshavealsobeenobservedpreyingupongreatblueheroneggsandhatchlings.27Itisunknownifbaldeagles,crows,orravenswillfarebetterthanthegreatblueheronunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownDouble-crestedcormorantsandotherheronscompetewiththegreatblueheronforlimitednestinghabitat.27Itisunknownhowthesespecieswillfareunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThegreatblueheronisnotdependentoninterspecificinteractions.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralItisestimatedthatdispersalamongthefour,largegreatblueheroncoloniesinPugetSoundcontributestotherelativelyhighlevelofgeneticdiversitywithintheregion’sheronpopulations.28Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimaticconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


Mountaingoat(Oreamnosamericanus)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthemountaingoat’srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThemountaingoatisacapabledisperserbutveryhighandverylowelevationsaswellasbodiesofwaterserveasbarrierstomovement.29Naturalbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityofthemountaingoattoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhilehighways,urbanareas,andagriculturalfieldshavebeenidentifiedasanthropogenicbarrierstomountaingoatdispersal,29suchbarriersarerareinandnearmountaingoathabitatwithintheNooksackwatershed.Additionally,themajorityofmountaingoathabitatintheNooksackwatershedisdesignatedaswilderness,andisthereforeunlikelytoseefutureroadand/ortrailconstruction.17However,evenatlowdensities,thepresenceofsuchbarriersmaylimittheabilityofthemountaingoattoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralThemountaingoatinhabitsalpineandsubalpinehabitats.Thesehabitattypesarenotlikelytobeusedforclimatechangemitigationactionswithintheassessmentarea.DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralInsomeareas,mountaingoatswilltravelbetweensummerandwinterranges.Mountaingoatsmayalsotraveltosaltlicksduringthesummermonths.30Thegooddispersalabilityofthemountaingoatincreasesthelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|GreatlyIncreaseVulnerabilityThemountaingoatisadaptedtocoldalpineandsubalpinehabitats,31whicharesensitivetoclimatechange.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralMountaingoatsarenotdependentonaspecifichydrologicniche.Itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofmountaingoathabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseFire,windthrow,pestsanddiseasecanallnegativelyaffectsubalpinemountaingoathabitat.Climatechangeis

projectedtoincreasethefrequencyandintensityoffireinwesternWashington.20Inaddition,warmer


anddriersummerswillstressforests,whichmayincreasethesusceptibilityofforeststopestsanddisease.However,thewinterrangeofthemountaingoatwithintheNooksackwatershedislargelydominatedbybarrensouthfacing,lowelevationslopes.17Itisthuspossiblethatwintermountaingoathabitatmayinitiallymaintainorexpandduetoprojectedincreasesinannualareaburned.17DependenceonIceorSnow|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityMountaingoatsareoftenassociatedwithsnowinsubalpineandalpinehabitatsduringthewintermonths.Deepsnowpackcanimpedemountaingoatmovement,butisalsoanimportantsourceofsummermoistureforsupportingvegetationforforage.Whileprojecteddeclinesinsnowpackmayenhancemountaingoatmovementduringwinter,subsequentreductionsinsummerwateravailabilitymaynegativelyaffectmountaingoathabitat.Inaddition,projecteddeclinesinsnowpackmaypromoteforestencroachmentintosubalpineandalpinezones,reducingmountaingoathabitat.17PhysicalHabitatFeatures|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThemountaingoatinhabitsopensubalpineandalpineareaswithcloseproximitytoescapeterrain(e.g.,steep,rockyledgesandcliffs).31Becausemountaingoatsareassociatedwithsteeprockyoutcroppingsandcliffs,theyarelesslikelytobeabletoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange,comparedtospeciesthatarenotdependentonuncommongeologicfeatures.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralMountaingoatsarenotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralThemountaingoathasageneralistdiet,largelycomposedofgrasses,andshrubs.31Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchamongavailablefoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralMountaingoatsarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownMountaingoatsarefrequentlyinfestedbyticks,tapeworms,andnematodes.31Whiletheseparasitesareubiquitousinmountaingoatpopulations,itisunknowniftheseinfestationsnegativelyaffectpopulationdynamicsandoriftheseparasiteswillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownMountaingoatsandbighornsheepoccupysimilarhabitats,principallysubalpineandalpineregions.Theyalsohaverelativelysimilardietscomposedofgrasses,forbs,andshrubs.32However,itisunknownhowbighornsheeppopulationswillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThemountaingoatdoesnotrequireinterspecificinteractions.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|IncreaseVulnerabilityLowgeneticvariationhasbeenobservedinmountaingoatpopulationsinhabitingtheCascadeRangeinWashington.33Specieswithlowlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobelessabletoadapttochangingclimateconditionsthanpopulationswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversity.

PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


MountainLion(Pumaconcolor)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):LessVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ModeratelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthemountainlion'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralMountainlionsarecapabledispersersbutlargeexpansesofnon-forestedhabitatmayactasdispersalbarriers.Narrowripariancorridorsmayallowdispersalthroughotherwisenon-forestedhabitat.34Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthemountainliontoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityMajorhighwaysaswellasurban,agricultural,andindustrialareashaveallbeenidentifiedasanthropogenicbarrierstomountainliondispersal.34Thesebarriersmaylimittheabilityofthemountainliontoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralMountainlionshavethewidestdistributionofanynativemammalinthewesternhemisphere,andinhabitawiderangeofhabitattypes.35Thesehabitattypesarenotlikelytobeusedforclimatechangemitigationactionswithintheassessmentarea.DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralMountainlionsareawide-rangingspeciescapableoflongdistancedispersal(thelargestdocumentedmovementshaveexceeded2000km).34Theexcellentdispersalabilitiesofthemountainlionincreasethelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralMountainlionsareadaptedtoawiderangeoftemperatureregimesandarethereforeunlikelytobedirectlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralMountainlionsareadaptedtohabitatsthatspanawiderangeofhydrologicniches.Itisunlikelythatshiftingprecipitationregimesunderclimatechangewillalterthesuitabilityofmountainlionhabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralMountainlionsarenotthoughttobesensitivetodisturbanceregimesthatmaybealteredbyclimatechange.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralMountainlionhabitatsuitabilityisnotdependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectthemountainlion.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralMountainlionhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthemountainlion’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralMountainlionsarehabitatgeneralists,andarenotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralThedietofmountainlionsisprimarilydeer,butthisspeciesishighlyopportunisticandeatsvariouslargeandsmallmammals,includingbighornsheep,livestock,coyote,squirrels,rabbits,andmice.36Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchamongdifferentfoodtypesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralMountainlionsarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownWhilemountainlionsaresusceptibletosomediseases,itisunclearwhethertheintensity,rateoftransmission,andseverityofthesediseaseswillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThemountainlionisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThemountainliondoesnotrequireinterspecificinteractions.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralInwesternNorthAmerica,geneticvariationofmountainlionpopulationsisfrequentlyobservedtobehigh,duetolarge,stablepopulationsandhighratesofdispersal.37Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticvariationareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


Trumpeterswan(Cygnusbuccinators)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):HighlyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthetrumpeter'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantnaturalbarrierstotrumpeterswanmigration.Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthetrumpeterswantoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantanthropogenicbarrierstotrumpeterswanmigration.Itisunlikelythatanthropogenicbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthetrumpeterswantoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffecttrumpeterswanhabitat,whichincludesagriculturalfields,wetmeadows,shallowmarshesandlakes,andriveroxbows.17,38DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralThetrumpeterswanisanexcellentdisperser,capableoflong-distancemigration.39Itsexcellentdispersalabilityincreasesthelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralTrumpeterswansareadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandarethereforeunlikelytobedirectlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityJuvenileswansurvivalistightlylinkedwithstablewaterlevelsatnestingsites.38ProjectedincreasesinwinterfloodriskinwesternWashington14maynegativelyaffectnestinghabitatandfledglingsurvival.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralTrumpeterswansarenotthoughttobesensitivetodisturbanceregimesthatmaybealteredbyclimatechange.Anexceptiontothisisflooding,whichiscapturedunderPhysiologicalHydrologicNiche.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralTrumpeterswanhabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffecttrumpeterswanhabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralTrumpeterswanhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeaturesAssociationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthetrumpeterswan’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityPreferredtrumpeterswannestingandloafingsitesoftenincludemuskrathousesorbeaverdams.However,swansmayalsoconstructnestsonsmallnaturalislands.38Speciesthatrelyonasmallnumberofspeciesforhabitatornestingsitesarelikelytobemorevulnerabletoclimatechangethanspecieswithmoregeneralizedhabitatrequirements.1DietaryVersatility|NeutralTrumpeterswanshaveabroaddietincludingrootsandleavesofaquaticvegetation,watermilfoil,waterweed,andyellowpondlilyseeds.38Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralTrumpeterswansarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownPredatorsarenotamajorconcernforthetrumpeterswan,butmayincreasemortalityratesofjuvenileswans.38Riverotters,coyotes,minks,andgoldeneagleshaveallbeenobservedpreyinguponyoungswans.Itisunknownifthesepredatorswillfarebetterthanthetrumpeterswanunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownThereiscurrentlynoempiricalevidenceindicatingthattrumpeterswanscompetewithotherspecies,thoughtheyarefrequentlyobservedforagingalongsideotherwaterbirds,includingthenorthernpintail,goldeneye,andmallard.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|UnknownThetrumpeterswandoesnotrequireaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|UnknownUnknownGeneticBottleneck|IncreaseVulnerabilityThetrumpeterswanunderwentapopulationbottleneckintheearlypartofthe20thcentury.Bytheyear1932,thelargestknownpopulationoftrumpeterswansconsistedof57swansfoundwithinYellowstoneNationalPark.40Evidenceofgeneticbottleneckscanbeusedtoinferreductionsinspecies-levelgeneticvariationthatcouldpotentiallyimpedeaspecies’abilitytoadapttoclimatechange.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


Elk(Cervuscanadensis)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):HighlyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%oftheelk'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhileelkarecapabledispersers,highterraces,steepterrain,andgulliescanactasnaturaldispersalbarriers.41Presenceofnaturalbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityofelktoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|IncreaseVulnerabilityHumandisturbances,includingroadconstructionandlogging,canserveasanthropogenicbarrierstoelkdispersal.41AsignificantpercentageofelkhabitatintheNooksackwatershedislocatedinactiveforestareas.17Thesebarriersmaylimittheabilityoftheelktoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralElkarehabitatgeneralists,occurringacrossnumeroushabitats.41ItiscurrentlyunknownifclimatechangemitigationactivitieswillnegativelyaffectelkpopulationswithintheNooksackwatershed.DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralElkareverycapabledispersersandareestimatedtodisperse25-50km.42Thespecies'excellentdispersalabilitiesincreasethelikelihoodthattheelkwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralElkareawidely-distributedspecies,implyingbroadtoleranceforvarioustemperatureregimes.41Therefore,theelkislesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures,comparedtospeciesrestrictedtocoldclimates.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityElkareoftenassociatedwithwetlandhabitatswithintheNooksackwatershed(NooksackTribestaff,personalcommunication).17Itisthereforeexpectedtobesensitivetoprojecteddeclinesinmoistureavailability,whichmayincreaseitsvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralElkareconsideredadisturbancetolerantspecies,ofteninhabitingsitesdisturbedbyloggingandfire,aswellasotherearly-successionalhabitats.41Theelkisalsoconsideredtobefire-dependentorfire-adaptedtosomeextent,duetotheirpositiveresponsetofoodavailabilityfollowingwildfire.Projectedincreasesinannualareaburned20are

thusunlikelytonegativelyaffectelk.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralElkhabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectelkhabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralElkhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimittheelk’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralTheelkisaforesthabitatgeneralist,andisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralElkhaveaverybroaddiet,consumingforbs,willow,aspen,cottonwood,grasses,andmushrooms.43Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralElkarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownGraywolvesandmountainlionsarenotedaspredatorsofelk.17,41Itisunknownifelkwillfarebetterthanwolvesormountainlionsunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownElkcompetewithlivestockwhenforageavailabilityislimited.Itisunknownwhetherelkorlivestockwillfarebetterunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralElkdonotrequireaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralElkhavebeenshowntohaverelativelyhighlevelsofgeneticvariation.44Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


BlackBear(Ursusamericanus)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%oftheblackbear'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhileblackbearsarecapabledispersers,drylow-elevationhabitattypesandriversmayactasnaturalbarrierstobeardispersal.29Naturalbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityoftheblackbeartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|IncreaseVulnerabilityHighways,roads,andurbanareashavebeenidentifiedasanthropogenicbarrierstoblackbeardispersal.29,45Humanpopulationgrowthandexpandeddevelopmentwilllikelyincreasethenumberofanthropogenicbarriersencounteredbyblackbears.Thesebarriersmaylimittheabilityoftheblackbeartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectblackbearhabitat,whichincludesforest,wetmeadows,riparianareas,andedgehabitat.45DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralBlackbearsareextremelycapabledispersers.Nataldispersalofsub-adultmaleblackbearshasbeendocumentedtorange8-136miles.Theblackbear’sexcellentdispersalabilitiesincreasethelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralBlackbearsareadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandarethereforeunlikelytobedirectlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralBlackbearsarenotdependentonaspecifichydrologicniche.Itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofblackbearhabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityClimatechangemayaffectthequalityofblackbearhabitatbyincreasingboththefrequencyandintensityofwildfire.Whileincreasesinannualareaburnedmayinitiallyfacilitateberryestablishment,increasingblackbear


forage,longer-termincreasesinareaburnarelikelytoreducesuitableblackbearhabitat(NooksackTribestaff,personalcommunication).17DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralBlackbearhabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectblackbearhabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralBlackbearhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimittheblackbear’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralBlackbearsareaforesthabitatgeneralistandnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralBlackbearsareopportunisticomnivores,generallyconsuminggrassesandforbsinspring,berriesandinsectsinsummer,andacornsandnutsduringfall.Thespeciesalsoeatscarrion.45Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBlackbearsarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Thisreducesthevulnerabilityoftheblackbeartoclimatechangeastheyarenotdependentonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,toensurethenextgenerationsurvives.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownGrizzlybears,mountainlions,andgraywolvesareallpredatorsoftheblackbear.45Itisunknownifthesepredatorswillfarebetterthantheblackbearunderachangingclimate.Whileblackbearsarealsosusceptibletodiseases,itisunknownhowtheirvirulenceandspreadwillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralTheblackbearisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralTheblackbeardoesnotrequireaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Becauseresponsestoclimatechangewillbespecies-specific,thosedependentonotherspeciesmaybemorevulnerabletoclimatechangethanspecieswithoutinterspecificinteractions.GeneticVariation|NeutralBlackbearsinAlbertahavebeenshowntohaverelativelyhighlevelsofgeneticdiversity.46Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


Bufflehead(Bucephalaalbeola)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP4.5):ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario(RCP8.5):ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWashingtonispartofthebufflehead’swinterrange,whichconsistsprimarilyofsaltwaterareas(beaches,estuaries,andharbors).47BuffleheadwithintheNooksackwatershedarethuslikelytobeaffectedbysealevelrise.NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantnaturalbarrierstobuffleheaddispersal.Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthebuffleheadtoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantanthropogenicbarrierstobuffleheadmigration.Itisunlikelythatanthropogenicbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthebuffleheadtoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectbuffleheadhabitat,whichincludesfreshwaterpermanentpondsinitsbreedingrange,andshelteredsaltwatercovesandestuarieswithinitswinterrange.47DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralBuffleheadsareexcellentdispersers,capableoflong-distancemigration.47Thebuffelhead’sexcellentdispersalabilityincreasesthelikelihoodthatitwillbeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralBuffleheadareadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisthereforeunlikelytobenegativelyaffecteddirectlybywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityBuffleheadsaredependentonsmallpermanentpondsinitsbreedingrange.47Thesehabitatsmaybesensitivetoprojectedincreaseswinterfloodriskanddecliningsummerlow-flows.14DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralThebuffleheadisnotthoughttobesensitivetodisturbanceregimesthatmaybealteredbyclimatechange.Anexceptiontothisisflooding,whichisdiscussedunderPhysiologicalHydrologicNiche.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralBuffleheadhabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectbuffleheadhabitat.


PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralBuffleheadhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthebufflehead’sabilitytoadapttohabitatlossfromclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|IncreaseVulnerabilityThebuffleheadnestsexclusivelyintreecavitiesconstructedbythenorthernflicker,andlessfrequentlybythepileatedwoodpecker.47Speciesthatrelyonasmallnumberofspeciesforhabitatornestingsitesarelikelytobemorevulnerabletoclimatechangethanspeciesthathavemoregeneralizedhabitatrequirements.DietaryVersatility|NeutralThedietofthebuffleheadvariesseasonallyandbythehabitattypeoccupied(freshwaterversussaltwater).Buffleheadaredivingducksthatconsumeinsects,crustaceans,mollusks,andplants.47Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBuffleheadsarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownPeregrinefalcon,snowyowl,baldeagle,Cooper'shawk,andthegreathornedowlareallpredatorsofthebufflehead.47Itisunknownifthesepredatorswillfarebetterthanthebuffleheadunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThebuffleheadisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThebuffleheaddoesnotrequireaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralThebuffleheadhasbeenshowntohaverelativelylowlevelsofpopulationdifferentiationcomparedtoothercave-nestingsea-ducks.48Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


AlaskaCedar(Callitropsisnootkatensis)2050s,LowGHGScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2050s,HighGHGScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGHGScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGHGScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%oftheAlaskacedar'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralAlaskacedarseedsaredispersedbywind.49ItisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityoftheAlaskacedartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheregionnorthoftheNooksackwatershedislargelyborderedbydevelopedagriculturalland,whichmaydecreasetheabilityoftheAlaskacedartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoresultintheremovalofAlaskacedarfromsuitablehabitat,whichincludestheCascadeRange.50DispersalandMovementAbility|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityDirectinformationonseeddispersaldistanceisnotavailablefortheAlaskacedar.However,itisnotedthatAlaskacedarseedsareheavierthanPort-Orford-cedarseedsandarethereforeunlikelytobedispersedmorethan120metersfromthesource.50TherelativelypoordispersalabilitiesofAlaskacedarseedsmaydecreasetheabilityoftheAlaskacedartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheAlaskacedarisrestrictedtorelativelycool/coldregionswithinWashington'sCascadeRange.Thespeciesisfoundbetween600-2,300m.49Thisdependenceoncool,higherelevationhabitatsincreasesthespeciesvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,astheseareasarethoughttobemorepronetohabitatlossorreductionwithwarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheAlaskacedarisknowntogrowonbogandsemi-bog.50Projectedincreasesintemperaturesanddeclinesinsummerprecipitation14mayreducemoistureavailabilityinthesehabitats,potentiallyreducingthehabitatsuitabilityofsomeareasfortheAlaskacedar.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralAlaskacedarisnotreliantonadisturbanceregimesthatisprojectedtobealteredbyclimatechange.


DependenceonIceorSnow|IncreaseVulnerabilityAlaskacedar,alsoreferredtoasyellow-cedar,hasexperiencedwidespreaddeclineinAlaskaandBritishColumbia.Thiswidespreaddeclinehasnotbeenlinkedwithabioticfungi,nematode,insect,orvirus;andisthereforethoughttobeassociatedwithanabioticprocess.Specifically,decliningsnowpackisthoughttoexposetherootsoftheAlaskacedartofreezingdamageduringthewintermonths.Therefore,decliningsnowpackmaynegativelyaffectAlaskacedar.51PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralTheAlaskacedarisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.AssociationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimittheAlaskacedar’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralTheAlaskacedarisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Speciesthatarenotreliantonotherstocreatehabitataremorelikelytoadapttoshiftingenvironmentalconditionsduetoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|NeutralAlaskacedariswindpollinated.Speciesthatarereliantonalimitednumberofpollinatorsarepotentiallymorevulnerabletoenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralAlaskacedardoesnotserveasamajorformofbrowseforlivestockorwildlife.Ithasbeendocumentedasasourceofbroseonlywhenlocaldensitiesofblack-taileddeerintheregionarehigh.49ThisreducesthevulnerabilityofAlaskacedartoclimatechangeastheyarenotdependentonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,toensurethenextgenerationsurvives.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAlaskacedarissusceptibletonumerousinsects,pathogens,andpests.Itischallengingtomakegeneralizationsoftheresponsesofdiseasesandpeststoclimatechangebecausetheresponseswilllargelybespeciesspecific.Somediseases/pestsmaybecomemorewidespreadwhileothersmaynot.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralAlaskacedargenerallyisnotdamagedbyinsects.Therearenoknowndefoliatorsofthisspeciescurrently.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralTheAlaskacedardoesnotrequireinterspecificinteractions.Becauseresponsestoclimatechangewillbespecies-specific,thosedependentonotherspeciesmaybemorevulnerabletoclimatechangethanspecieswithoutinterspecificinteractions.GeneticVariation|UnknownGeneticBottleneck|UnknownReproductiveSystem(plantsonly)|NeutralTheAlaskacedarismonoeciousandanoutcrosser,reliantonwindforpollendispersal.52Inplants,geneticvariationislikedtoreproductivesystem.Speciesthatareoutcrossersmaybemorelikelytoadapttochangingclimateconditions.1PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


NorthernPintail(Anasacuta)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:LessVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthenorthernpintail'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantnaturalbarrierstonorthernpintaildispersal.Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthenorthernpintailtoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantanthropogenicbarrierstonorthernpintailmigration.Itisunlikelythatanthropogenicbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthenorthernpintailtoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectnorthernpintailhabitat,whichincludesfreshwaterseasonal,shallowwetlandandshallowmarshes.53DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralNorthernpintailsareexcellentdispersers,capableoflong-distancemigration.53Itsexcellentdispersalabilityincreasesthelikelihoodthatthenorthernpintailwillbeabletoadjustitsrangewithchangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralThenorthernpintailisadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisthereforeunlikelytobedirectlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityNorthernpintailsaredependentonsmall,shallow,semi-permanentwetlandsandmarshes.53Thesesemi-permanenthabitatsmaybesusceptibletodecliningsummerprecipitationandincreasedriskofsummerlowflows.14Thesechangesmayincreasethelikelihoodofprematuredryingofthesewetlandsandmarshes,whichwouldnegativelyaffectthenorthernpintail.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralThenorthernpintailisnotthoughttobesensitivetodisturbanceregimesthatmaybealteredbyclimatechange.Theoneexceptionisdroughtandsummerlowflows,whicharecapturedinthePhysiologicalHydrologicNichefactor.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralNorthernpintailhabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytonegativelyaffectnorthernpintailhabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralNorthernpintailhabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthenorthernpintail’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThenorthernpintailisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.1DietaryVersatility|NeutralThenorthernpintailhasadiversedietconsistingofinsects,grains,grasses,aquaticvegetation,invertebrates,andseeds.53Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralThenorthernpintailisnotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownTheredfox,mink,Swainson'shawk,greathornedowl,largeraptors,andthecoyotehaveallbeendocumentedaspredatorsofadultpintails.Minks,raccoons,skinks,foxes,andseveralbirdsalsopreyuponnorthernpintaileggs.53Itisunknownifthesepredatorswillfarebetterthanthenorthernpintailunderachangingclimate.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThenorthernpintailisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThenorthernpintailisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralNorthernpintailhavebeenobservedtohavelittlegeneticstructuringacrossthreedifferentwinteringsites,indicatinghighlevelsofgeneflowandaveragelevelsofgeneticvariationacrosstheentiremigratingpopulation.54,55Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


SootyGrouse(Dendragapusfuliginosus)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:LessVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthesootygrouse'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones)NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenosignificantnaturalbarrierstosootygrousedispersal.Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthesootygrousetoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityRoads,urbanareas,industrialareas,agriculturallands,andloggingroadshaveallbeenidentifiedasanthropogenicbarrierstosootygrousedispersal.17,56Thesootygrousemayhavedifficultyflyingovermanyofthesebarriersduetoitslimiteddispersalabilities.Thesebarriersmaythusslightlydecreasetheabilityofthesootygrousetoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectsootygrousehabitat,whichincludesopenmontaneforestfromsealeveltothetreelineinthesubalpine/alpinezone.57DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralThesootygrouseisashort-distancemigrant,typicallydispersingfromlow-elevationbreedingareastohigherelevationforestedhabitat.Thoughitslongestdocumenteddispersaldistanceis50km,distancesof~8kmhavebeenmorecommonlyobserved.57Thedispersalabilitiesofthesootygrouseincreasethelikelihoodthatitwillbeableadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralSootygrouseareexposedtobothverywarmandverycoldtemperatures,andarethereforeunlikelytobenegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures,comparedtospeciesrestrictedtocoolhabitats.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralSootygrousearenotdependentonaspecifichydrologicalniche.Itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofsootygrousehabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralWindthrow,fire,andloggingallcreategapsinforestunderstoryareasthatarequicklyinhabitedbygrouse.57Projectedincreasesinareaburned20mayinitiallyprovideadditionalhabitatforthesootygrouse,however,itis


unclearifincreasesinareaburnedwillcontinuetobebeneficialforgrousethroughoutthe21stcentury.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralSootygrousehabitatsuitabilityisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectsootygrousehabitat.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralSootygrousehabitatisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthesootygrouse’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralSootygrousearenotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|NeutralAdultsootygrousearereliantonarangeofvegetativematter.Flowers,leaves,andberriesareconsumedinsummer,andconiferneedlesandconesareconsumedinthefallandwinter.57Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralThesootygrouseisnotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownTherearemanydiseasesandparasitesthatcanaffectthefitnessofthesootygrouse.Examplesincludefowlpox,avianmalaria,andhelminths.57Itisunknownifthesediseasesandparasiteswillbecomemorewidespreadorvirulentwithclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThesootygrouseisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThesootygrouseisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralGeneticstudiesbytheWashingtonDepartmentofFishandWildlifehavefoundrelativelyhighgeneticvariationinsootygrousepopulations.58Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


WesternRedcedar(Thujaplicata)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthewesterredcedar'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralWesternredcedarseedsaredispersedbywind.59Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswilldecreasetheabilityofthewesternredcedartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAlaskaredcedarisarelativelyhardyspecies,oftenfoundintheNooksackwatershedalongtheedgesofagriculturalfieldsandhumanmodifiedsites.17Therefore,barrierspresentedbyagriculturefieldsanddevelopedareaswithintheNooksackRiverwatershedareunlikelytodecreasetheabilityofthewesternredcedartoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectwesternredcedarhabitat,whichincludesopenforestfromsealeveltothetreelineinthesubalpine/alpinezone.59DispersalandMovementAbility|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWesternredcedarseedsarewinddispersed.However,theseed'ssmallwingslimititsdispersaldistanceto~120meters.59Therelativelypoordispersalabilitiesofthewesternredcedarmaydecreaseitsabilitytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralThewesternredcedarisadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisthereforeunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThewesternredcedarfrequentlygrowsinwetlandhabitat(morethan50%ofthetime)withintheNooksackwatershed.17Projecteddeclinesinmoistureavailabilitymayresultindecliningmoistureavailabilityinthesewetlandhabitats.Thus,climate-drivenshiftsinthehydrologicregimemaynegativelyaffectthewesternredcedar.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWesternredcedarsgrowingonwetsitesaresusceptibletowindthrow,butclimatemodelsdonotprojectachangeinwindstrengthorspeedintheNooksackwatershed.Westernredcedarisalsocommonlykilledbyfire.59Annual


areaburnedisprojectedtoincreasewithclimatechange,20whichmaynegativelyaffectwesternredcedar.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralThewesternredcedarisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectwesternredcedar.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralThewesternredcedarisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthewesternredcedar’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThewesternredcedarisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|NeutralThewesternredcedariswindpollinated.Speciesthatarereliantonalimitednumberofpollinatorsarepotentiallymorevulnerabletoenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralWesternredcedarisnotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThewesternredcedarissusceptibletonumerousinsects,pathogens,andpests.Itischallengingtomakegeneralizationsoftheresponsesofdiseasesandpeststoclimatechangebecausetheresponseswilllargelybespeciesspecific.Somediseases/pestsmaybecomemorewidespreadwhileothersmaynot.Forexample,westernredcedarissusceptibletoarmellariarootdisease.Ifclimatechangeresultsinawarmeranddrierclimatearmellariaimpactisprojectedtoincrease.Conversely,ifclimatechangeresultsinawarmerandwetterclimate,theimpactofarmellariaisprojectedtoremainthesame.60CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThewesternredcedarisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThewesternredcedarisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|IncreaseVulnerabilityThewesternredcedarhasoneofthelowestlevelsofgeneticdiversityamongconifers.61Specieswithlowlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobelessabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


BogCranberry(Vacciniumoxycoccos)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthebogcranberry'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralBogcranberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.62Birdsareabletoflyovermostnaturalbarriers.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheregionnorthoftheNooksackwatershedislargelyborderedbydevelopedagriculturalland,whichmaylimittoabilityofthebogcranberrytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectbogcranberryhabitat,whichincludesfreshwaterbogsandfens.62DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralBogcranberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.62Seedsarelikelytoberegurgitatedordefecatedatleast1kmfromtheparentbogcranberryplant.Aspeciesthatisabletodisperselongdistancesismorelikelytobeabletoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralBogcranberryisadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisthereforeunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityBogcranberrygrowsinbogsandfensoccurringinwetcoastalandborealforests.Thesesitesarepoorlydrainedwithahigh-watertable.Intheseareas,thegroundissaturatedformostoftheyear.62Risingtemperaturesandprojecteddeclinesinsummerprecipitationandsummerstreamflowsmaydryoutthesebogandfensites,negativelyaffectingbogcranberry.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralThebogcranberryregeneratesfromrhizomes,andisthereforeabletosurvivelow-tomoderate-severityfires.62Low-severityfireshavealsobeenshowntostimulateberryproductionandtolimittreesandshrubsfromencroachingintobogandfenhabitat.63Projectedincreasesinannualareaburnedareunlikelytonegativelyaffect


thebogcranberryduetoitsabilitytoregenerate,anditspresenceinwetbogenvironments.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralThebogcranberryisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectbogcranberry.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThebogcranberryisrestrictedtoacidicconditions,thrivinginsoilswithpHbetween2.9-4.7.62Speciesthataredependentonuncommongeologicfeaturesarelesslikelytobeabletoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThebogcranberryisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|NeutralThebogcranberryisself-pollinating.However,beepollinationcanoccur,andtypicallyresultsinincreasedseedproduction.63Speciesthatarenotdependentonaspecificpollinatorarelikelytobelessvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBogcranberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandanimalspecies.62Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownThebogcranberryissusceptibletonumerousfungaldiseases.63Itishardtomakegeneralizationsabouthowthesefungaldiseaseswillrespondtoclimatechange.Itisunknownifthesewillfungaldiseaseswillbecomemorewidespreadwithclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralThebogcranberryisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThebogcranberryisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|NeutralThebogcranberryhasbeenshowntobegeneticallydiverseandtohavehigherlevelsofgeneticdiversitythanitsrelative,thesmallcranberry(V.macrocarpon).64Specieswithaveragetohighlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobebetterabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


AlaskaBlueberry(Vacciniumalaskaense)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%oftheAlaskablueberry'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralAlaskablueberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.65Birdsarelargelyabletoflyovermostnaturalbarriers.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheregionnorthoftheNooksackwatershedislargelyborderedbydevelopedagriculturalland,whichmaylimittoabilityoftheAlaskablueberrytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectAlaskablueberryhabitat,whichmostcommonlyincludescool,moistforests.65DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralAlaskablueberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.65Seedsarelikelytoberegurgitatedordefecatedatleast1kmfromtheparentAlaskablueberryplant.Speciesthatareabletodisperselongdistancesaremorelikelytobeabletoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralAlaskablueberryareadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandarethereforeunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotdependentonaspecifichydrologicalniche;itisabletogrowonbothwell-drainedandpoorlydrainedsites.65ItisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofAlaskablueberryhabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryfrequentlycolonizesdisturbedsitesfollowingwindthroworfireevents,howeverclimatemodelsdonotprojectachangeinwindstrengthorspeedintheNooksackwatershed.14ModelsdoprojectanincreaseintotalareaburnedinWashingtonstate.20Low-severityfiresmayfacilitateAlaskablueberryestablishment,whilemoderate-tohigh-severityfiresmaykillvegetativeportionsoftheblueberrybeneaththesoil


surface,limitingre-growth.65DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectAlaskablueberry.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.AssociationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimittheAlaskablueberry’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAlaskablueberryflowersarepollinatedbybumblebees.CommonbumblebeespeciesinwesternWashingtonincludetheblack-tailedbumblebee,yellowbumblebee,fuzzyhornedbumblebee,andtheyellowfacedbumblebee.Speciesthatarereliantonalimitednumberofpollinatorsarepotentiallymorevulnerabletoenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralAlaskablueberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandanimalspecies.65Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownWhiletheAlaskablueberryissusceptibletosomefungaldiseases66,itisunclearwhethertheintensity,rateoftransmission,andseverityofthesediseaseswillbeaffectedbyclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralTheAlaskablueberryisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|UnknownGeneticBottleneck|UnknownReproductiveSystem(plantsonly)|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheAlaskablueberryisabletoreproducebothvegetativelyandviaseedproduction.VegetativereproductionhasbeennotedtobeofparticularimportancetowesternVacciniumspecies.65Speciesthatrelyonvegetativereproductionareassumedtohavelowerlevelsofgeneticvariationandtherefore,maybemorevulnerabletochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


BroadleafCattail(Typhalatifolia)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthebroadleafcattail'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralBroadleafcattailseedsaredispersedbywind,water,birds,andtransportedsediment.17,67Itisunlikelythatnaturalbarrierswillposeanissueforbroadleafcattaildispersalandthusitsabilitytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|NeutralWhiletheregionnorthoftheNooksackwatershedislargelyborderedbydevelopedagriculturalland,thebroadleafcattailisoftenfoundtobeabundantindisturbedagriculturalsites.67Itisthusunlikelythatanthropogenicbarrierswilllimitthebroadleafcattail’sabilitytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoadverselyaffectbroadleafcattailhabitat,whichmostcommonlyincludesslowrivers,ponds,ditches,lakes,andbrackishmarshes.67DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralBroadleafcattailseedsaredispersedbywind,water,andsubstrate.Achenescontainlonghairsthatfacilitatedispersal.67Seedsarelikelytobetransportedatleast1kmfromtheparentplant.Speciesthatareabletodisperselongdistancesaremorelikelytobeabletoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisawidelydistributedspecies,suggestingbroadtoleranceforavarietyoftemperatureregimes.67Thebroadleafcattailisthuslesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures,comparedtospeciesrestrictedtocoldclimates.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityThebroadleafcattailisanaquatic/semiaquaticspeciesthatisreliantonaseasonalhydrologicregimethatvariesthroughouttheyear.17ThehydrologicregimewithintheNooksackwatershedisprojectedtobeaffectedbyclimatechangeviaincreasesinwinterfloodinganddeclinesinsummerflow,14whichmaynegativelyaffectbroadleafcattail.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityBroadleafcattailsareabletoregeneratefromlow-tomoderate-severitytop-killfires.Cattailsareableto


regeneratefromsubsurfacerootsorrhizomes.Whilethebroadleafcattailisconsideredanaquatic/semiaquaticspecies,ithasbeennotedthatfiresarenotarareoccurrenceinbroadleafcattailhabitat.Whilethebroadleafcattailisnotedasbeingtolerantoffluctuatingwaterlevelsandsomeflooding,deathandcolonyfailurehasbeenobservedwithrelativelylowfloodlevels(e.g.,25inches).67ProjectedincreasesinwinterfloodriskforwesternWashington14maythusnegativelyaffectbroadleafcattailpopulationsintheregion.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectbroadleafcattail.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthemuledeer’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisself-pollinating.Speciesthatarenotdependentonaspecificpollinatorarelikelytobelessvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBroadleafcattailseedsarepredominantlywind-dispersed.67Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownItisunknownwhetherthebroadleafcattailissusceptibletopathogensordiseases.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownPurpleloosestrife(Lythrumsalicaria)hasbeennotedasawetlandinvasivespeciesthatmaynegativelyimpactthebroadleafcattail.67Itisunknownwhichofthesespecieswillfarebetterunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralThebroadleafcattailisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|IncreaseVulnerabilityGeneticvariationinthebroadleafcattailhasbeenreportedas"extremelylow."Itishypothesizedthatself-pollinationandclonalgrowtharetheprimarydriversoftheselowlevelsofgeneticvariation.67Specieswithlowlevelsofgeneticdiversityareexpectedtobelessabletoadapttochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


EvergreenHuckleberry(Vacciniumovatum)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%oftheevergreenhuckleberry'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralEvergreenhuckleberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.68Birdsarelargelyabletoflyovermostnaturalbarriers,whichmayincreasetheabilityoftheevergreenhuckleberrytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheregionnorthoftheNooksackwatershedislargelyborderedbydevelopedagriculturalland,whichmaylimittheabilityoftheevergreenhuckleberrytoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectevergreenhuckleberryhabitat,whichmostcommonlyincludescool,moistforests.68DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralEvergreenhuckleberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.68Seedsarelikelytoberegurgitatedordefecatedatleast1kmfromtheparentAlaskablueberryplant.Speciesthatareabletodisperselongdistancesaremorelikelytobeabletoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions..HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisthereforeunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisadaptedtoabroadrangeofmoistureregimes68,andisthereforeunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbyshiftsinmoistureavailability.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryregeneratesvegetativelyfromrootsandrhizomes,andisthereforeabletosurvivelow-tomoderate-severityfires.Low-severityfireshavealsobeenshowntostimulateberryproduction.68Projectedincreasesinannualareaburnedarethusunlikelytonegativelyaffecttheevergreenhuckleberryduetoitsabilitytoregenerateafterfire,anditspresenceinwetbogenvironments.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectevergreenhuckleberry.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheevergreenhuckleberryisrestrictedtoacidicconditions,thrivinginsoilswithpHbetween4.3-5.2.68Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisexpectedtolimittheevergreenhuckleberry’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityEvergreenhuckleberryflowersarepollinatedbylong-tonguedbees(i.e.,bumblebees).68CommonbumblebeespeciesinwesternWashingtonincludetheblack-tailedbumblebee,yellowbumblebee,fuzzyhornedbumblebee,andtheyellowfacedbumblebee.Speciesthatarereliantonalimitednumberofpollinatorsarepotentiallymorevulnerabletoenvironmentalchangesresultingfromclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralEvergreenhuckleberryseedsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandanimalspecies,includingthrushes,ptarmigans,towhees,ring-neckpheasant,andgrouse.68Dependenceonasingleotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownItisunknownwhethertheevergreenhuckleberryissusceptibletopathogensordiseases.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisnotcurrentlysensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies,andthereisnoindicationthatclimatechangewillcauseaspeciestobecomeacompetitorinthefuture.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralTheevergreenhuckleberryisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|UnknownGeneticBottleneck|UnknownReproductiveSystem(plantsonly)|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityTheevergreenhuckleberryisabletoreproducevegetativelyandalsoviaseedproduction.VegetativereproductionhasbeennotedofparticularimportancetowesternVacciniumspecies.68Speciesthatprimarilyreproducevegetativelyareassumedtohavelowerlevelsofgeneticvariationandthereforemaybemorevulnerabletochangingclimateconditions.PhenologicalResponse|NeutralThePuyallupClimateChangeImpactAssessmentnotedobservationsofhuckleberriesripeningtwoweeksearlierin2015,comparedtopreviousyears.69Thissuggeststhatregionalberryspeciesrespondedadaptivelytothewarmer-than-averagetemperaturesof2015,andmaythusbeabletoadjusttheirphenologyinresponsetoclimatechange.


BeakedHazelnut(Coryluscornuta)2050s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:ModeratelyVulnerable2050s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,LowGreenhouseGasScenario:HighlyVulnerable2080s,HighGreenhouseGasScenario:ExtremelyVulnerableSeaLevelRise|NeutralLessthan10%ofthebeakedhazelnut'srangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralBeakedhazelnutsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.70Jaysareknowntocarryhazelnutsoverlong-distances70,andarelargelyabletoflyovernaturaldispersalbarriers.AnthropogenicBarriers|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityAgriculturalsitesandurbanareaswithinandaroundtheNooksackwatershedarelikelytoserveasbreaksinsuitablehabitatforthebeakedhazelnut.17Theseanthropogenicbarriersmaydecreasetheabilityofthebeakedhazelnuttoadjustitsrangeinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectbeakedhazelnuthabitat,whichmostcommonlyincludesnewlyburnedsitesandclearcuts.70DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralBeakedhazelnutsaredispersedlong-distancesbynumerousbirdandmammalspecies.70Speciesthatareabletodisperselongdistancesaremorelikelytobeabletoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|IncreaseVulnerabilityThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanseasonaltemperatures(thedifferencebetweenthehighestmeanmonthlymaximumtemperatureandlowestmeanmonthlyminimumtemperature)observedforaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedanarrowerrangeofhistoricaltemperaturesareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturewarming.PhysiologicalThermalNiche|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutoccurscontinuouslyfromBritishColumbiatosouthernCalifornia.Therefore,itisadaptedtoabroadrangeoftemperatureregimesandisunlikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbywarmingtemperatures.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThisfactormeasurestherangeofmeanannualprecipitation(thewettestcellminusthedriestcell)observedacrossaspecies’distributionwithintheassessmentareainrecenthistoricaltimes(1970-1999).Speciesthathaveexperiencedlessvariationinprecipitationareexpectedtobemoresensitivetofuturechangesinprecipitation.PhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutisadaptedtoabroadrangeofmoistureregimes70,andisthereforelesslikelytobesignificantlynegativelyaffectedbyshiftsinmoistureavailability.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhilemanydisturbanceevents–includingfire,insects,anddisease–mayincreasethefrequencyofhazelnutpresence,floodinghasbeenshowntonegativelyaffectthebeakedhazelnut.70Projectedincreasesinwinterfloodriskmaythusnegativelyaffectbeakedhazelnuthabitat.


DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutisnotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectbeakedhazelnuthabitat.Infact,suitablebeakedhazelnuthabitatmayexpandifprojecteddeclinesinsnowpackallowtreeencroachmentintosubalpineandalpinezones.17PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutisnotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.70Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthemuledeer’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutisnotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.DietaryVersatility|N/APollinators|NeutralThebeakedhazelnutiswindpollinated.70Speciesthatarenotdependentonaspecificpollinatorarelikelytobelessvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechange.OtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBeakedhazelnutsaredispersedbynumerousbirdandanimalspecies.Examplesincludebluejays,scrubjays,androdents.70Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownItisunknownwhetherbeakedhazelnutsaresusceptibletopathogensordiseases.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownThebeakedhazelnutisvulnerabletoinvasionfromthenon-nativeSiberianpeashrub(Caraganaarborescens).70ItisunknownwhethertheSibearianpeashrubwillfarebetterthanthebeakedhazelnutunderclimatechange.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralBeakedhazelnutisnotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|UnknownGeneticBottleneck|UnknownReproductiveSystem(plantsonly)|SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityWhilethebeakedhazelnutiscapableofbothsexualandvegetativereproduction,vegetativemeansofreproductionaremorecommon.70Speciesthatprimarilyreproducevegetativelyareassumedtohavelowerlevelsofgeneticvariationandthereforemaybemorevulnerabletochangingclimaticconditions.PhenologicalResponse|Unknown


BivalvesSeaLevelRise|GreatlyIncreaseVulnerabilityMorethan90%ofbivalvesrangewithintheNooksackwatershedissubjecttosealevelrise(i.e.,low-lyingislandsorwithinthecoastalzones).NaturalBarriers|NeutralTherearenoknownnaturalbarrierstobivalvedispersal,whichmayincreasetheabilityofbivalvestoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.AnthropogenicBarriers|Neutral/SomewhatIncreaseVulnerabilityShorelinesandthepresenceofbulkheadsmaypresentabarriertoinlandmigrationofbivalvesassealevelsrise.17Theseanthropogenicbarriersmaythusdecreasetheabilityofbivalvestoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimaticconditionsandassociatedsealevelrise.ClimateChangeMitigationActions|NeutralClimatechangemitigationactionsareunlikelytoaffectbivalvehabitat,whichincludescoastalmarinehabitat.DispersalandMovementAbility|NeutralLarvalbivalvesdriftinthewaterforasignificantamountoftimeanddistance(i.e.,severalmiles)priortostoppingandburrowingbeneaththesandorsedimentsurface.71Speciesthatareabletomovelongdistancesaremorelikelytobeabletoadjusttheirrangesinresponsetochangingclimateconditions.HistoricalThermalNiche|UnknownPhysiologicalThermalNiche|UnknownSomebivalvespeciesareextremelyhardyareabletotoleratelargeswingsinwatertemperature(e.g.,thePacificoysterandtheKumamoto).Conversely,somebivalesaresensitivetoslightchangesintemperature(e.g.,theOlympiaoysterandtheEuropeanflatorBelonOyster).72Bivalvespeciesthataresensitivetochangesintemperaturearelikelytobemorevulnerabletowarmingoceantemperaturesduetoclimatechange.HistoricalHydrologicNiche|UnknownPhysiologicalHydrologicNiche|NeutralBivalesarenotdependentonaspecifichydrologicalniche.Itisunlikelythatclimatechangewillalterthehydrologicsuitabilityofbivalvehabitat.DependenceonDisturbanceEvents|NeutralBivalesarenotreliantonadisturbanceregimethatisprojectedtobealteredbyclimatechange.DependenceonIceorSnow|NeutralBivalvesarenotdirectlydependentonthepresenceofsnoworice.Therefore,projecteddeclinesinwintersnowpackareunlikelytodirectlynegativelyaffectbivalves.PhysicalHabitatFeatures|NeutralBivalvesarenotrestrictedtouncommongeologicalfeatures.Associationwithaspecificgeologicfeatureisthusnotexpectedtolimitthemuledeer’sabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.DependenceonOtherSpeciesforHabitat|NeutralBivalvesarenotdependentonotherspeciestogeneratehabitat.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,forhabitatgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.


DietaryVersatility|NeutralBivalvesarefilterfeedersandconsumearangeofphytoplanktonandzooplanktonspecies.71Speciesthatcanreadilyswitchbetweendifferentfoodsourcesarelesslikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Pollinators|N/AOtherSpeciesforPropaguleDispersal|NeutralBivalvesarenotdependentonotherspeciesforpropaguledispersal.Dependenceonanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,fordispersalisexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.SensitivitytoPathogens/NaturalEnemies|UnknownOysterdrills(marinesnails),numerousseastarspecies,dungenesscrab,redrockcrab,gracefulcrab,mudshrimp,andtheflatwormareallnotedaspredatorsofoystersandotherbivalves.72Itisunknownifthesepredatorswillfarebetterthanbivalvesunderclimatechange.CompetitionfromNativesorNon-Natives|UnknownItisunknownwhetherbivalvesaresensitivetocompetitionfromnativeornon-nativespecies.FormsPartofanInterspecificInteraction|NeutralBivalvesarenotdependentonaspecificinterspecificinteraction.Dependenceonaninteractionwithanotherspecies,whichmaybevulnerabletoclimatechange,isexpectedtoincreaseaspecies’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.GeneticVariation|UnknownGeneticBottleneck|UnknownPhenologicalResponse|Unknown


Habitat:Estuary-Saltmarsh,eelgrass,mudflatEstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityiv:ModeratetoHighSummary:ThishabitatisestimatedtohavemoderatetohighvulnerabilityduetoitsmoderatesensitivityvandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangesintheNooksackwatershediv.KeySensitivitiesv:• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)Projectedincreasesinairtemperaturemayleadtoincreasesindrying,specificallyinlow-tidesystems(e.g.,eelgrasshabitat).Tidalzonemarshes(i.e.,lowmarshes)aremuchmoresensitivetoprojectednetdryingthanthesehabitats,whiletidalmarshesabovethemeanhighwatermark(i.e.,highmarshes)arelesssensitive.Whileestuariesaregenerallyabletotolerateahighdegreeoftemperaturevariability,somespeciesthatinhabitestuariesmaybeextirpatedasaresultofwarmingtemperatures.Nevertheless,thecomplexityofthesesystemsisexpectedtoincreasetheresilienceofestuaryhabitattoincreasesinairtemperature.

• Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)Theinfluenceofprojectedchangesinprecipitationforestuarysystemsareuncertain.Fluctuationsinfreshwaterinflowduetochangesinseasonalorannualprecipitationwillbeparticularlyinfluentialforsalinitylevelswithinestuaries.However,becausemanyofthesenearshorehabitatshavebeenseparatedfromfreshwaterinflowsduetolandusechangesandrivermodifications,theymaybebuffered,tosomedegree,fromthesefuturechanges.Shiftsinnearshoresalinitymayalsohaveimplicationsforinvasivespecies,includingreedcanarygrass,duetoincreasedsalinityinsummer.• Indirectfactors:4(outof7)Waterchemistryinthenearshoremaychangeduetoincreasingseasurfacetemperaturesandmayincreaseacidification.Sealevelriseisexpectedtosignificantlyaffectnearshorehabitats.Somelevelofinundationmaybeoffsetormagnifiedbyseasonalchangesinstreamflowandsedimentdeliveryinsomeregions.Sealevelrisemaycreateestuaryhabitatincoastalareasbyfloodingundeveloped,low-lyingshorelines.Localgeomorphologyisalsoimportantindetermininghowsealevelrisemayaffectaspecificsite.Forexample,mudflatsthatareexposedmaybemorevulnerablecomparedtoflatswithsomeformofnaturalbarrierthatmaylimitinundation.Diseasesandparasitesofspeciesinhabitingestuariesarealsolinkedtoshiftsinclimate.Forexample,eelgrasswastingdiseaseisaffectedbybothwatertemperatureandsalinity.Projectedshiftsinsurfacetemperatureandsalinityareexpectedstressnearshorespecies,increasingsusceptibilitytoinfection.

ResearchNeedsWhileestuariesaregenerallyadaptedtoahighdegreeofclimaticvariability,changesinseasonalprecipitationandthecorrespondingtimingoffloodeventsmayleadtounknownchanges.Mappingestuaryhabitatandidentifyingsitesthatmayexpandorcontractmayhelpprioritizefuturerestorationanddevelopment.

ivVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).vSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


Habitat:Forest(includingold-growth)EstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityvi:ModeratetoHighSummary:ThishabitatisestimatedtohavemoderatetohighvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeduetomoderateclimatesensitivityandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangeswithintheNooksackwatershediv.KeySensitivitiesvii:

• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)Patternsofforestdistributionandgrowtharelargelydeterminedbyregionalpatternsintemperatureandprecipitation.Airtemperatureinfluencesphotosynthesisandrespirationrates,frosttolerances,andphenology.73Projectedincreasesintemperatureareexpectedtoalterthespeciescompositionandgrowthrates(especiallyinenergy-limitedforests)ofwesternWashingtonforests.However,warmingtemperaturesmayalsofacilitatetheintroductionandspreadofforestinsectsandpathogens(CCSD).74Temperatureinfluencestherateofinsectgrowthanddevelopment,andwintertemperaturesinfluencewintermortalityinforestpests.73Additionally,projectedincreasesintemperatureandassociateddeclinesinsummermoistureavailabilityareexpectedtostressforests,increasingtheirsusceptibilitytoinsectandpestinfestation.

• Precipitationchanges:4.5(outof7)InsomeWashingtonforests,treeproductivityiscurrentlylimitedmorebyprecipitation,orwateravailability,thantemperature(i.e.,water-limitedforests).73Whiletheseseasonallywater-limitedforestscanbefoundthroughoutWashington73,theytypicallyoccurindrierlocationsandathighelevations.Increasesinwinterprecipitationatthehighestelevationscouldleadtodecreasedtreegrowthduetoadeepersnowpack.Projecteddeclinesinsnowpackmayfacilitateforestencroachmentintosub-alpineandalpinehabitats.17Manyforestsarecurrentlyconsideredenergy-limitedandthereforemanynotrespondtoprecipitationchanges.

• Indirectfactors:5(outof7)Forestsaresensitivetoindirectfactorsassociatedwithclimatechange,suchasfire,disease,pests,andwinddisturbances.IncreasesintemperatureanddeclinesinmoistureavailabilityareprojectedtoincreasetheannualareaburnedbyfireinwesternWashington.20Thismayalterthespeciescompositionofwet,lowland-forestsfromstandsofwesternhemlockandredaldertothosedominatedstandstoDouglas-fir.Projectedincreasesintemperaturemayalsoleadtoincreasesofpests,especiallywhencombinedwithblowdownevents.ResearchNeedsForestsinwesternWashingtonvaryinspeciescomposition,structure,age,andexpectedresponsetoclimatechange.Additionalresearchisneededtoimproveourunderstandingofhowclimaticchangesintemperature,precipitation,andshiftsindisturbanceregimes(e.g.,fire)mayaffectforests.

viVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).viiSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


Habitat:Montane:alpine,subalpine,meadow,talusEstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityviii:HighSummary:Giventhissystem’shighclimatesensitivityixandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangesintheStillaguamishwatershediv,weestimatethatitsclimatechangevulnerabilitywithintheNooksackwatershedwillberelativelyhigh.KeySensitivitiesix:• Temperaturechanges:7(outof7)Projectedincreasesinairtemperaturemayincreasegrowthandproductivityofhigh-elevationmontanehabitatsthatarecurrentlyenergylimited.Warmingtemperaturesarealsoexpectedtofacilitatethespreadandencroachmentoftreesintomeadowshabitat.Warmingtemperaturesmayadverselyimpactmontanespeciesthathaveanarrowthermaltoleranceandareunabletopersistinwarmclimates,suchastheAmericanpika.• Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)Projectedchangesinprecipitationareexpectedtosignificantlyaffectmontanehabitatsandassociatedvegetation.Increasesinwinterprecipitationatthehighestelevationscouldleadtodecreasedtreegrowthduetoadeepersnowpack.Projecteddeclinesinsummerprecipitationmayresultindecreasedgrowthduetowaterlimitation.Additionally,projectedincreasesintemperatureandprojecteddeclinesinsummerprecipitationareexpectedtoincreaseannualareaburnedinwesternWashington.20Decliningsnowpackcouldresultinalongergrowingseasonandanassociatedincreasedgrowth,butmayalsoexposesomeplantrootstofrostandwinddisturbancesduringharshwinterweather(wherethesewerepreviouslyprotectedbysnowpack).

• Indirectfactors:6(outof7)Montanehabitatsareconsideredextremelysensitivetodisturbances,includingfire,wind,disease,andpests.Climatechangeisexpectedtoincreasethefrequencyandintensityofsomeoftheseindirectfactors.Alpineareasandmeadowsaregenerallyconsideredmoresensitivethansubalpineareastotheseindirectfactors.Majordisturbanceevents(e.g.,fire,wind,disease)mayresultinthemostsignificantchangesinspeciescompositionifexistingspeciescannotre-establishduetocompetitionfromspeciesmovingupfromlowerelevations.ResearchNeedsMontaneareasarediverseandconsistofmanyecosystems,suchasalpine,subalpine,meadow,andtalus.Moreresearchonidentifyingindividualclimatechangesensitivityrankingsforeachoftheseecosystemsisneeded.

viiiVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).ixSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


Habitat:Marine–Nearshore/gravelbeachesEstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityx:ModerateSummary:ThishabitatisestimatedtohaverelativelymoderatevulnerabilityduetoitslowtomoderatesensitivityxiandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangesintheNooksackwatershediv.KeySensitivitiesxi:• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)Gravelbeachesareidentifiedasbeingsomewhatsensitivetotemperaturechange.Projectedincreasesintemperaturemayresultinchangestospeciescompositionandabundance.Additionally,warmingtemperaturesareexpectedtofacilitatethespreadofinvasivespeciesintoregionsthatmayhavehistoricallybeentoocoldforthem.Projectedincreasesintemperaturemayalsoreducepopulationsofforagefishspeciesinnearshorehabitatsandaccelerateratesoforganicmatterdecay.• Precipitationchanges:3(outof7)Nearshoreandgravelbeachhabitatswerecategorizedasbeinglesssensitivetoprojectedchangesinprecipitationthantothoseintemperature.However,thereisahighlevelofuncertaintyastohowthesenearshoreandgravelbeachhabitatswillrespondtoshiftsinprecipitation.Projectedchangesinprecipitation,specificallyextremeprecipitationevents,mayaltererosionandsedimenttransport,whichcouldleadtofloodingandscouring.• Indirectfactors:5(outof7)Waterchemistryinthenearshoremaychangeduetoincreasingseasurfacetemperaturesandmayincreaseacidification.Oceanacidificationhassignificantimplicationsforshellfishinhabitingnearshoreenvironments.Additionally,coastalfloodingmaynegativelyaffectbiotaandleadtochangesinerosionandsedimenttransport.Sealevelrisehasthepotentialtosignificantlyinfluencethesenearshoresystems,butsimilartoestuaries,maybepartiallyoffsetorintensifiedlocallybyshiftsinriverdischargeandsedimentdeposition.Sealevelrisemaycreatenewnearshorehabitatbyfloodingundeveloped,low-lyingshorelines.Somenon-climatestressorsincreasetheclimatesensitivityofthenearshoreandgravelbeaches.Forexample,pollution,shellfishharvest,andshorelinemodificationssuchasdevelopmentandarmoringareallmajorthreatstothenearshoreandgravelbeaches.ResearchNeedsThereisahighlevelofuncertaintysurroundingclimatechangeimpactstonearshorehabitatsandgravelbeaches.Shiftsinflooding,erosion,andsedimentdepositionareexpectedtosignificantlychangethedynamicsandspeciescompositionofthesehabitats.Mappingmarinenearshoreandgravelbeachhabitatandidentifyingsitesthatmayexpandorcontractmayhelpprioritizefuturerestorationanddevelopment.Non-climatestressorsthatmayincreasetheclimatesensitivityofthesehabitatsalsorequirefurtherresearch.

xVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).xiSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


Habitat:RiparianEstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityxii:ModeratetoHighSummary:Giventhissystem’smoderateclimatesensitivityixandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangesintheNooksackwatershediv,weestimatethatitsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelativelymoderatetohigh.KeySensitivitiesxiii:• Temperaturechanges:4(outof7)RiparianhabitatsinwesternWashingtonarefoundadjacenttoriversandincloseproximitytobodiesofwater.Manyriparianareasoccurwithintherelativelycool,moistmaritimeclimate.Asaresult,riparianhabitatsareconsideredtobemoderatelysensitivetoprojectedincreasesintemperature.Projectedincreasesintemperaturemaydryupsomesmallcreeksandgroundwaterspringsorshortentheperiodoftheyearwithflowingwater.Declinesinstreamflowordrystreambedswouldnegativelyaffectthespeciescompositionandstructureofriparianhabitats.Significantwarmingcouldcausesomeofthesesystemstodisappearaltogether.

• Precipitationchanges:2(outof7)Whileriparianhabitatswereidentifiedaslesssensitivetoprojectedchangesinprecipitationthantowarmingtemperatures,riparianareaswillstillbeaffectedbyshiftsinprecipitation.Speciescompositionandstructureinriparianhabitatistightlyassociatedwithsoilmoisture,whichisinfluencedbybothprecipitationandevapotranspiration.Riparianhabitatsoftenincludehardwoodtreespecies,whicharerelativelysensitivetodecliningsoilmoisture.

• Indirectfactors:6(outof7)Riparianhabitatsareextremelysensitivetoindirecteffectsofclimatechange.Specifically,riparianhabitatsaresensitivetochangesinsummerlowflows,warmingwatertemperatures,andwinterfloodingevents.Projecteddeclinesinsummerlowflowsandincreasesinstreamtemperatureswillnegativelyaffectkeyspecies,includingsalmon.Projectedincreasesinwinterfloodingmayleadtochangesinspeciescompositionbyfavoringsmallerhardwoodsspecies.Shiftsintheseasonalityandvolumeofstreamflowswillalsoinfluencelocalwatertablelevelsandsoilmoisture.

ResearchNeedsMonitoringriparianhabitats,particularlyafterdisturbances,iscriticalforunderstandinghowclimatechangemayaffectriparianprocesses.Forexample,vulnerabilitymappingofriparianhabitatsbasedonprojectedchangesinseasonalstreamflowcouldbedevelopedtohighlightpriorityrestorationareas.

xiiVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).xiiiSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


Habitat:Wetland:ForestedWetlandEstimatedClimateChangeVulnerabilityxiv:HighSummary:Giventhissystem’shighclimatesensitivityixandhighprojectedexposuretotemperatureandprecipitationchangesintheNooksackwatershediv,weestimatethatitsclimatechangevulnerabilitywillberelativelyhigh.KeySensitivitiesxv:• Temperaturechanges:6(outof7)Forestedwetlandsarereliantongroundwaterandsurfacerunoffforwatersupply.Shallowwetlandsareextremelysensitivetoprojectedincreasesintemperature.Thedegreeofawetland’sresponsetowarmingwilldependontheformandsizeofthehabitat.Forexample,somewetlandsmaybebetterabletostorewaterduringthewintermonths,whichmaybufferthemagainstearliersnowmeltanddecliningsummerprecipitation.Warmingcanalsoleadtochangesinevaporationrates,whichcouldshortenthewetland’swetseason.Thismayresultinmismatchesbetweenwhenspeciesrequirethesewetlandsforlife-cycleevents(e.g.,reproduction,metamorphosis)andwhenawetlandiswet.

• Precipitationchanges:6(outof7)Projecteddeclinesinsummerprecipitationcouldresultinearlierwetlanddryingandashorterwetseason.Shadinginforestedwetlandswilllikelybufferthesehabitatsfromwaterlossdrivenbydecreasingsummerprecipitationandwarmingtemperatures.Shadinginforestedwetlandsmayalsoleadtolongersnowpackretentionthannon-forestedwetlandsduetotemperatureregulation.Locally,thismaylimitthedegreetowhichspringpeakstreamflowsshiftearlierintheseason.

• Indirectfactors:4(outof7)Warmingtemperaturesanddecliningsummermoistureavailabilityareexpectedtoincreasetheriskofwildfireandbeetleinfestationinforestedwetlands.Lossesofforestcoverduetodisturbance(e.g.,fire,pests)couldsignificantlyalterwaterbalancesinthesewetlands.ProjecteddeclinesinsnowpackwillimpactthewetseasonofforestedvernalpoolsandwetmeadowsinwesternWashington.ResearchNeedsMoreresearchisneededtoevaluatehowwetlandfunctionandprocesswillshiftunderdifferenttimehorizonsandclimatescenarios.Thedegreetowhichdifferentwetlandplantspeciesmayaffectripariansystemfunctioninghasalsonotbeenstudied.

xivVulnerabilitywasestimatedbyconsideringbothsensitivityixandexposure(i.e.,projectedwarmingof2.5–4.0°CfortheNooksackwatershedbythe2050sunderRCP8.5).xvSensitivityrankingsarefromtheClimateChangeSensitivityDatabase(climatechangesensitivity.org),apublicallyavailableon-linedatabasethatsummarizesinformationfrombothpeer-reviewedliteratureandexpertknowledgeofspeciesandhabitats.Itdoesnotincorporateprojectionsofclimatechange(i.e.,exposure).


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Appendix4SummaryReportofWorkshopsandWebinarsThefollowingAppendixsummarizestheworkcompletedbytheClimateImpactsGroup(CIG)andtheNooksackIndianTribetoassessthevulnerabilityofkeyspeciesandhabitatsfortheNooksackTribe.Workshop1|ProjectKickoff&SelectingtargetspeciesandhabitatsOnAugust29th,2017theCIGmetwithTribalstaffattheNooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmenttodiscussandfinalizethelistoftargetspeciesandhabitatstobeincludedinthevulnerabilityassessment(Table1forattendancelist).Tribalstaffwereaskedtohighlightthepriorityspeciesandhabitattypes.TheprimaryconsiderationforrankingwasimportancetotheNooksackTribe.Inmanycasesthatimportancewasbasedonpresent-dayusebytheTribe.Inothercases,thatimportancewasbasedhistoricand/oranticipatedfutureuseofthespeciesorhabitatforeconomicorculturalreasons.Dataavailabilityandperceivedadaptivecapacitywerenotfactoredintothisrankingevaluation.Table1.AttendanceforWorkshop1.

Name OrganizationMeadeKrosby UWClimateImpactsGroupHarrietMorgan UWClimateImpactsGroupRichardAuguston NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentJezraBeaulieu NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTomCline NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTrevaCoe NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentNedCurrence NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTrevorDelgado NooksackCulturalResourcesDepartmentLindsieFratus-Thomas NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentOliverGrah NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentGaryMacWilliams NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentEricStover NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentGeorgeSwanaset NooksackCulturalResourcesDepartmentHollyO’Neil EvergreenLandTrust

Workshop2|DraftResultPresentation&IncorporatingLocalKnowledgeOnOctober14th,2017,theCIGfacilitatedasecondworkshopwithTribalmembersandnaturalresourcestafftopresentdraftCCVIresultsandprovideworkshopparticipantswithanopportunitytomodifythespeciessensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorscoresbasedonlocalknowledgeoftheNooksackwatershed.Thesemodificationsofthesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsresultedinchangesfortheoverallvulnerabilityrankingsfortwelvespeciesincludedintheassessment.


Table2.AttendanceforWorkshop2.

Name OrganizationHarrietMorgan UWClimateImpactsGroupMeadeKrosby UWClimateImpactsGroupRichardAuguston NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentJezraBeaulieu NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTomCline NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTrevaCoe NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentOliverGrah NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentHollyO’Neil EvergreenLandTrust

Webinar1|ReviewWorkshop2Edits&HighlightFinalCCVIResultsAnhour-longwebinarwashostedbytheCIGto(1)reviewwhateditsweremadetothesensitivityandadaptivecapacityfactorsinWorkshop1,and(2)presentthefinalCCVIresultsafterincorporationofNaturalResourceStaffchangesfromWorkshop2.Table3.Attendanceforwebinar.

Name OrganizationHarrietMorgan UWClimateImpactsGroupMeadeKrosby UWClimateImpactsGroupJezraBeaulieu NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentLindsieFratus-Thomas NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentOliverGrah NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartment

Workshop3|FinalWorkshop&FinalReportPresentationOnDecember12,2017,theCIGfacilitatedthethirdandfinalworkshopwithTribalmembersandnaturalresourcestaff.DuringthisworkshoptheCIGpresentedthefinalresultsoftheNooksackTribe’sNaturalResourceClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.Thisworkshopfocusedontheresults,caveatsoftheCCVItool,andstrategiesforhowtouseandapplytheseCCVIresults.Table4.AttendanceforWorkshop3.

Name OrganizationHarrietMorgan UWClimateImpactsGroupMeadeKrosby UWClimateImpactsGroupRichardAuguston NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentJezraBeaulieu NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentTomCline NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentLindsieFratus-Thomas NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentOliverGrah NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartmentEricStover NooksackNaturalResourcesDepartment

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