Nono Rusono — Indonesian Food Security and Climate Change

KEMENTERIAN PPN/KEMENTERIAN PPN/BAPPENASBAPPENAS

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INDONESIAN FOOD SECURITY INDONESIAN FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE : AND CLIMATE CHANGE :

LOOKING INTO THE FUTURESLOOKING INTO THE FUTURES

NONO RUSONO & SETYAWATIMinistry of National Development Planning/

National Development Planning Agency

International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security6-8 November 2011, Beijing China


OUTLINEOUTLINE

1. Indonesian Development2. Agriculture Overview3. Climate Change Impacts on

Agriculture4. Indonesia’s Policies on

Climate Change

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o Land area : 1.9 million km2 , Marine area : 5.8 million km2

o Population : 239 millions in 2010, with growth rate +1%o 58 percent people live in rural areaso Population density was 125 per people per km2 in 2007

INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENTINDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT


Realized 2010 Realized 2011 Projection 2012 Projection 2013 Projection 2014

Economic growth 6,1% 6,4 % 6,5%-6,9% 6,7%-7,4% 7,0%-7,7%Unemployment 7,1% 7,0 % 6,4%-6,6% 6,0%-6,6% 5%-6%Poverty (National 13,3% 12,5% 10,5%-11.5% 9,5%-10,5% 8%-10% Poverty Line)

Source: Medium Term Development Plan

INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENTINDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT

Poverty (percent below US$2 per day)


AGRICULTURE OVERVIEWAGRICULTURE OVERVIEW

Agriculture sector has a vital role in Indonesia’s development in economic, social and environmental aspects

In 2010, agriculture (including forestry and fisheries) contributed 13.2 percent of GDP contribution of agriculture to GDP tends to decline

Agriculture sector also has contributed to national exports, primarily through the export of palm oil, cocoa, coffee, and coconuts

43 million people employed in agricultural sector

Agricultural land-use has a function in maintaining our life-support system


Food crop contributes almost 50 percent to agricultural GDP.

Food crop, 49.7

Tree crop, 15.7

Livestock, 12,6

Forestry, 6.2

Fisheries, 15.8

Agriculture sector’s GDP, 2004-2010 (%)

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Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2009) Source: BPS

Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP from agriculture


CONDITION AND CHALLENGESCONDITION AND CHALLENGES

COMPONENT2010 TARGET

2011TARGET REALIZATI

ON

Main Food Production

• Paddy (million ton) 66,9 66,4 70,6

• Maize (million ton) 19,8 18,40 22,00

• Soybean (million ton) 1.300 908,1 1.600

• Sugar (million ton) 3,0 2,7 3,9

• Beef (thousand ton) 412 435,2 439

• Fisheries (million ton) 10,83 12,26

GDP growth (%) 3,6-3,7 2,9 3,7

CHALLENGES1. Increasing number of population2. World price fluctuation3. Climate change decreased food

production4. Land conversion/Land use

change, degradation, condition of agricultural infrastructure

5. Import (maize, soybean, meat, sugar, wheat, milk)

• FOOD SECURITY AS ONE OF NATIONAL PRIORITIES

• INCREASING FOOD PRODUCTION TO MEET DEMAND

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Source: Annual Government Work Plan


AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIESAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

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Rank Crop % of total

Area harvested

(000 hectares)1 Rice, paddy 34.50% 12,0812 Oil palm fruit 13.00% 4,5503 Maize 10.50% 3,6604 Coconuts 8.10% 2,8335 Natural rubber 8.00% 2,8006 Cassava 3.40% 1,2077 Coffee, green 2.80% 9768 Cocoa beans 2.70% 9409 Groundnuts, with shell 1.90% 66810 Soybeans 1.60% 544

Total 100.00% 35,021

Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010)

Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010)

Rank Crop % of total Food

consumption(000 mt)

1 Rice (Milled Eq.) 30.70% 27,8892 Cassava 10.00% 9,0563 Vegetables, Other 7.10% 6,4694 Fruits, Other 6.90% 6,2555 Maize 6.60% 6,0446 Coconuts - Incl Copra 6.00% 5,4667 Wheat 4.80% 4,3408 Bananas 4.70% 4,2339 Sugar (Raw Eq) 3.70% 3,355

Total 100.00% 90,893

Harvest area of leading agricultural commodities, average of 2006-2008

Consumption of leading food commodities, average of 2003-2006


3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

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SCENARIOSSCENARIOS

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Category Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

GDP, constant 2000 US$

Lowest of the four GDP growth rate scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment GDP scenarios (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)and the rate used in the baseline (next column)

Based on rates from World Bank EACC study (Margulis2010), updated for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian countries

Highest of the four GDP growth rates from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment GDP scenarios and the rate used in the baseline (previous column)

Population UN High variant, 2008 revision UN medium variant, 2008 revision

UN low variant, 2008 revision

Climate model the CSIRO and the MIROC GCMs with the A1B and the B1 scenarios

The IMPACT model

Changes in Precipitation under Climate Model

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Changes in Annual Maximum Temperatureunder Climate Model

Production Yield Area

Net export Price

IFPRI’S calculation


Net export Price

SCENARIO OUTCOMES FOR MAIZESCENARIO OUTCOMES FOR MAIZE



Net export Price



Net export Price

IFPRI’s calculation


SCENARIO OUTCOMES ON HUMAN BEING SCENARIO OUTCOMES ON HUMAN BEING INDICATORSINDICATORS

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Average daily kilocalories availability (kilocalories per person per day)

Source: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011

Number of malnourished children under 5 years of age

20IFPRI’s calculation


4. INDONESIA’S POLICIES ON 4. INDONESIA’S POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

21http:// www.triplepundit.com


GHG Emission in IndonesiaGHG Emission in Indonesia

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Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011)Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011)

Source : WRI, 2011

Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011)

Climate change is give impacts on agriculture, agricultural sector also contributes to the increase of GHG emission

The current GHG emissions are dominated by land-use change emissions, including forest degradation and peat fires

Contribute to Emission from Land Use Change : Forest fires/deforestation, Agriculture (Especially estate crops), Ex: Oil Palm and sugar; Livestock


National Policies on Climate ChangeNational Policies on Climate Change

Mainstreaming Climate Change into Medium Term Development Planning

Formulate Indonesia Climate Change SectoralRoadmap (ICCSR)

Formulate NAP GHG emission reduction (RAN GRK).

Established ICCTF to coordinate international support on Indonesia’s climate change policy and program.

Adaptation Policies (on progress)

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THERE IS A NEED TO FILL THE GAP AND TO CALL FOR THERE IS A NEED TO FILL THE GAP AND TO CALL FOR SECTORAL POLICY INTEGRATIONSECTORAL POLICY INTEGRATION


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Mitigation•Energy•Forestry• Industry•Transportation•Waste Management

Mitigation•Energy•Forestry• Industry•Transportation•Waste Management

Adaptation•Agriculture•Marine and Fishery•Water Resources•Health

Adaptation•Agriculture•Marine and Fishery•Water Resources•Health

Nine Sectors of Climate Change Roadmap :

RAN GRKRAN GRK Sectoral Plan

Sectoral Plan

Local (RAD GRK)

Local (RAD GRK)

Process :

1. Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR) will support the GOI’s development vision related to climate change for the next 20 years

2. The implementation of the Roadmap will be through National Development Plan: period 2010 – 2014.

3. RAN GRK elaborates Indonesia’s commitment to reduce carbon emission by 26 percent from business as usual by 2020

The Overall FrameworkThe Overall Framework


TThe National Action Plan of he National Action Plan of GHG emission reduction GHG emission reduction ((RAN GRKRAN GRK))

2020 1. Allocate reduction of emission in 5 main sectors by

2020

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SectorReduction Target (Gton CO2e)

26% 41%Forestry and Peatland 0.672 1.039Agriculture 0.008 0.011Energy and Transportation 0.036 0.056Industry 0.001 0.005Waste 0.048 0.078Total 0.767 1.189

2. Identification of sectoral program and estimation of government budget


Mitigation and Adaptation Actions for Mitigation and Adaptation Actions for Emission ReductionEmission Reduction

o Introducing new crop varieties with low emission. This includes increasing research and technology to develop the varieties.

o Prevent land burning o Improving fertilizer application techniques to reduce emission, such as utilizing

organic fertilizero Improving crop land management to increase soil carbon storage

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MITIGATION

ADAPTATIONo Increasing the production and productivity of main food and promoting

diversification on commodity consumption. o Developing new varieties that resist to a range of environment such as drought and

heat o Developing adaptive agriculture technology, including developing soil management

technologyo Improving water management including irrigation system to reduce water usage and

water leakage, Improving management of crop residueo Building farmers and authorities capacity o Developing crop weather insurance for farmers to increase farmer’s resilience from

climate change effects


CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

o Based on the analysis, climate change puts stresses on agricultural state and effect food security. The results show that Indonesia’s crop yield, production and prices will be affected.

o Adaptation and mitigation policy recommendation:o Promote integration and coordination among stakeholders to

consistently implement the national climate change policies.o Build synergies of mitigation and adaptation measures into

sustainable development plans.o Increase research, technology, infrastructure investment on

agriculture to meet the future demand and maintain food security.

o Build human resources capacity to deal with climate change.

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THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Nono Rusono — Indonesian Food Security and Climate Change

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