Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
-
Upload
dickersonwts -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
0
Transcript of Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
1/16
Hong Kong propertyPROPERTY
EQUITY RESEARCH
Weekly: 13 Feb 2012 (Vol. 5)
Spring arriving early?Secondary volumes continue topick up
February 13, 2012
This editions highlights:The secondary market is showing more signs of life. Flat viewing numbersrose 25% w-w and Midland's 35 housing estates volume index is up 146%to 138 transactions. Home prices also increased 0.60% w-w. While some
of this is just down to a seasonal pick-up post Chinese New Year, giventhe solid fundamentals of the housing market, we believe there is scope forthis perception of a pick-up to become a reality.
Physical market: Home prices rose 0.60% w-w. This has almostreturned the YTD home price change to flat, still down 0.45% YTD.Secondary volumes showed strong growth up from 56 to 138transactions, much higher than the 16-week average of 74 units and the52-week average of 115.
Best and worst: HK property stocks rose +1.7% w-w, outperformingthe HSI (+0.1% w-w) but underperforming their Chinese peers (+5.4%w-w). Best: Greentown China (+27.4% w-w); Worst: Henderson Land(-2.4% w-w).
FY11-13F consensus earnings: Developers (0.1%/-0.1%/0.3% w-w),landlords (-0.1%/0.0%/0.1% w-w) and REIT (0.5%/-0.6%/-1.2% w-w).
Top five news items1. Government dropping size restriction on new land sales
2. Five pricing options for new HOS sales
3. HK to face 14,000 labour shortage by 2018
4. Pay rise still intact but being scaled back a little
5. Kerry wins a residential site in Tuen Mun for HKD2,739mn
Fig. 1: Key property metrics/Weekly share price performance
Source: Company data, Centaline, Midland, Bloomberg, Nomura research, Note: Prices as of 10 February 2012
Research analysts
Hong Kong Property
Paul Louie - NIHK
[email protected]+852 2252 6189
Weekly share price performance:Key property metrics Last value w-w (%) Best Five HKD w-w (%)CCL Index 95.04 0.60 Greentown China 4.46 27.4
MIDL 35 Volumes 138 146.4 KWG Property 3.89 14.13m Hibor 0.40% 0.0 Beijing Capital Land 2.00 9.9HS Index 20,784 0.1 Shimao Property 9.57 9.1
HS Prop Index 26,270 0.6 HK Land 5.56 8.8
HK Property Reporting Calendar Worst Five HKD w-w (%)Company Date Period-end SHKP 109.70 0.1Champion REIT (2778 HK) 20-Feb FY11 Cheung Kong 104.80 0.0
Great Eagle (41 HK) 27-Feb FY11 Renhe Commercial 0.92 (1.1)SHKP (16 HK) 28-Feb FY11 Sino Land 12.56 (1.9)
Hong Kong Land (HKL SP) 1-Mar FY11 Henderson Land 42.50 (2.4)Hysan (14 HK) 8-Mar FY11
Swire Pacific (19 HK) 15-Mar FY11Cheung Kong (1 HK) 29-Mar FY11
See Appendix A-1 for analystcertification, importantisclosures and the status of
non-US analysts.
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
2/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
2
Physical market review
HK housing: home prices +0.60% w-w and -0.45% in YTD
Home prices rebounded by +0.60% w-w last week. This helped to narrow the YTD
decline to only -0.45%. Compared with 2011s intra-year peak, the CCL index is down
5.64%. Across the territories, Hong Kong Island was the only region showing a mild fall
in home price (-0.15% w-w). Kowloon experienced the largest rally of +2.06% w-w,
followed by New Territories East (+0.83% w-w) and West (+0.16% w-w).
Fig. 2: Home prices: Up 0.60% w-w
Source: Centa-City Leading Index
Fig. 3: Interbank lending rate: Stay flat
Source: Bloomberg
HIBOR flat but banks showing signs of re-engaging
There was almost no change in Hong Kongs 3-month interbank rate at 40bps but with 3-
month Libor down 2bps from 0.53% to 0.51%, this has reduced the Hibor-Libor spread to11 bps.
While there were almost no change in HK interbank rates, there is more anecdotal
evidence that the HK banks are starting to re-engage in their mortgage lending activities.
According to the Hong Kong Economic Times, HSBC and BOC have started to offer
mortgages at P-2.7% (effective interest rate at 2.3%) in order to attract mortgage
business. It further cited that post the Lunar New Year, some major banks have further
eased their mortgage approval process with select clients enjoying up to P-2.85%
(effective interest rate 2.15%) for mortgage loan up to HKD 2mn or above. Cash rebates
have also increased from 0.5-0.8% to the current 1%. Market participants believe the
mortgage business will be more competitive among banks when the developers launch
the major new projects. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times, February 9, 2012)
Fig. 4: Mortgage policy changed by major banks after Lunar New year
Source: HKET
Meanwhile, Centaline Property in conjunction with Hang Seng Bank is introducing a
mortgage pre-approval service with LTV up to 90%. This service is effective from
February 10, 2012 to April 30, 2012. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times, February 10,
2012)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
5/FebWoW
(%)
YTD
(%)
Overall 0.6 -0.5
HKI -0.1 2.6
Kowloon 2.1 -1.1
NT East 0.8 -1.4
NT West 0.2 -0.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan/07
Apr/07
Jul/07
Oct/07
Jan/08
Apr/08
Jul/08
Oct/08
Jan/09
Apr/09
Jul/09
Oct/09
Jan/10
Apr/10
Jul/10
Oct/10
Jan/11
Apr/11
Jul/11
Oct/11
Jan/12
3M HIBOR (%) 3M LIBOR (%)
Before Lunar New Year Afte r Lunar New Year
Effective interest rate Minimum 2.3% for major banks Minimum 2.15% for major banks
Cash rebate 0.5-0.8% 1% (majority of banks)
Timing of approval 5 - 7 days 1 to 2 days
Estimated price conservative aggressive
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
3/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
3
Volume: Primary market: Developers readying new launches;secondary volumes shows strong signs of recovery
With increased interest in the secondary market, developers are readying new launches
to try to tap into the potential demand. Over the past weekend, as developers continue to
sell mostly leftover units, overall activity level was largely flat, up 3% w-w to 35
transactions. Shun Tak/SHKP sold another 5 units of Chatham Gate this past weekend,
bringing its cumulative sales to 160 units (48% of overall project). Elsewhere, Cheung
Kong cleared another 15 units at Festival City III while NWD sold 4 units at The
Masterpiece in TST.
Key new projects to watch in the coming weeks include Wheelocks Lexington Hill in
Western District (104 units), Sino Lands Baker Residences in Hunghom (68 units),
Hendersons La Verte in Sheung Shui (16 units), SHKPs Park Island Phase 6 in Ma
Wan (65 units) and Tuen Mun Station (1,100 units) and Cheung Kongs Tsuen Wan
West (1,720 units) and TKO Area 85 projects (1,777 units).
Fig. 5: Primary weekend transactions
Source: Various Chinese press, Nomura research
Fig. 6: Secondary weekly transactions
Source: Midland Holdings, Nomura research
The secondary market is continuing to show strong signs of a recovery. Midland's 35
housing estates volume index rose 146% w-w to 138 transactions. This is higher than
the 16-week average of 74 units, the 52-week average of 115 units and also 2011s
average weekly transaction levels of 136. With estate agents reporting a further 25%
increase in weekend flat viewing numbers and a faster commitment by potential home
buyers, this suggests that the recent pick-up in secondary volume should have more
room to run.
Key dates to watch
Fig. 7: Data release dates
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Research
#s W-W Y-Y YTD
Primary Weekend
Transactions (11-12 Feb)
35 3% 52% -61%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Weekend Primary TransactionsMA-16 Week
MA-52 Week
#s W-W Y-Y YTD
Secondary Transactions
(30 Jan - 5 Feb)
138 146% 70% -43%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
D
ec-06
M
ar-07
Jun-07
S
ep-07
D
ec-07
M
ar-08
Jun-08
S
ep-08
D
ec-08
M
ar-09
Jun-09
S
ep-09
D
ec-09
M
ar-10
Jun-10
S
ep-10
D
ec-10
M
ar-11
Jun-11
S
ep-11
D
ec-11
Secondary TransactionsMA-16 Week
MA-52 Week
February March April
Feb 20 Champion REIT FY11 results Mar 01 Hongkong Land FY11 results Apr 19 Unemployment rate (Mar)
Feb 20 January 2012 CPI Mar 01 Retail sales (Jan) Apr 23 March 2012 CPI
Feb 21 Unemployment rate (Jan) Mar 08 Hysan FY11 results
Feb 22 GDP (4Q) Mar 15 Sw ire Pacif ic FY11 results
Feb 27 Great Eagle FY11 results Mar 19 Unemployment rate (Feb)
Feb 28 SHKP 1HFY12 results Mar 22 February 2012 CPI
Mar 29 Cheung Kong FY11 results
Mar 29 Retail sales (Feb)
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
4/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
4
News and views: Government droppingsize restriction on new land sales; fivepricing options for new HOS salesKey News1. Government dropping size restriction on new land sales
2. Five pricing options for new HOS sales
3. HK to face labour shortage of 14,000 by 2018
4. Pay rise still intact but being scaled back a little
5. Kerry won a residential site in Tuen Mun for HKD2,739mn
6. Housing Society launch old folks homes
7. Estate agents' application numbers down 50% y-y
8. Beijings office rent surged more than 75% a year
Government dropping size restriction on new land sales
On February 8, HK's Secretary for Development commented that for new land sales, theGovernment would prefer to continue to implement unit restrictions and forgo size
restrictions. The Secretary for Development commented that the construction of the new
Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) together with new supply along the West Rail and URA
projects have already helped to increase the number of small and medium-sized units.
So rather than imposing both size and unit restrictions, it is now more appropriate to just
impose unit restrictions in order to ensure that developers would provide at least a
certain level of supply. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times, Development Bureau
press release, February 8&9, 2012)
Five pricing options for new HOS sales
The Housing Authority is considering five pricing options for the sale of the new HOSflats. Under the new HOS sales scheme, as the premium serves as a loan to the
homebuyers, fixed at the time of purchase", homebuyers only have to repay the premium
(i.e. loan) when the flat is sold and are able to pocket the difference. In terms of how to
handle the loan, the Housing Authority is considering the following five options:
(1) Interest-free loan.
(2) Loan with floating interest rate below the average best lending rate of the banks.
(3) Same as (2) but with a additional 1.5% " risk-adjusted factor.
(4) Loan with interest rate fixed at the time of purchase.
(5) Fixed interest rate loan at 2%.
(Source: South China Morning Post, February 7, 2012)
HK to face labour shortage of 14,000 by 2018
According to The Labour & Welfare Bureau, HK will face a labour shortage of 14,000
staff by 2018. It projected that HK's labour requirement will reach 3.596m in 2018 but
with HK's 300,000 baby boomers continuing to retire, HK's labour force will only be at
3.582mn then. This marks the first time that Labour & Welfare Bureau's study has
projected a labour shortage since the study began in 1988. The 14,000 jobs will have to
be filled by either foreign or mainland graduates or immigrants. By 2018, the four pillar
industries in Hong Kong are projected to increase. Tourism should see the strongest
demand for staff with an average growth rate of 2.9% y-y to 247,400, while financial
services firms are expected to grow 2.5% p.a. to 253,100. The study believes that the
staff demand would be focused on highly educated staff and predicts that there will be an
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
5/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
5
excess of 8,500 low-education or low-skilled staff. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times,
South China Morning Post, February 10, 2012)
Fig. 8: HK's labour force projection across four industries
Source: HKET
In related news, hiring intentions continue to be positive for the retail industry. While
financial services firms remain cautious, sales, marketing and retail companies are
continuing to increase headcounts with a 10% pay rise set for new hires. Links
Recruitment expects a mild growth of 0-5% for existing staff and a 5-10% increase for
new hires. On the other hand, Manpower Group pointed out those hiring remains
relatively quiet with job vacancies down 20% q-q. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times,
February 8, 2012)
Pay rise still intact but being scaled back a little
The uncertain economic outlook has resulted in employers scaling back their earlier payincrease intentions. The Hong Kong Institute of Human Resource Managements
(HKIHRM) survey found that 95% of the firms still forecast a base pay increase of 4.7%;
this was down from 5.0% from its November 2011 survey. Among the different sectors,
non-government organisations are projecting the highest pay increases at 7.1%. This is
followed by construction and shipping/terminals at 5.7% and 5.5%. (Source: Hong Kong
Economic Times, Hong Kong Institute of Human Resource Management, February 8&9,
2012)
Fig. 9: Overall average base pay adjustment and forecast
Source: HKIHRM
Fig. 10: Base Pay Adjustment Forecast (Jan April 2012)
Source: HKIHRM
Kerry wins residential site in Tuen Mun for HKD2,739mn
Kerry Properties has beaten six other bidders for a 939,600sf (GFA) residential site in
Tuen Mun. The HK$2,739mn winning bid for the So Kwun Wat site translates to an AV of
HKD2,915psf, some 11% below market expectation. Surveyors estimate a break-even
price of HK$6,386psf for the project. As this was a unit-restricted site, Kerry is expected
to develop not less than 1,100 residential units, and the building height of the site has
been limited to 85 metres. Kerry considered the price of the land reasonable and
expected the total project cost around HKD6bn. (Source: Hong Kong Economic Times,
South China Morning Post, Kerry press release, February 10, 2012)
Industry 2018 2018 vs. 2010 pa. chg (%)
Tourism 247,400 +49,900 +2.9
Financial Industry 253,100 +46,200 +2.5
Professional Services 347,400 +58,700 +2.3
Trading and Logistics 781,700 +21,100 +0.3
Year
Base pay
adjustment
forecastedfor the year
(%)
Base pay
adjustmentfor the
year (%)
2012
4.7 (Jan 2012),
5.0 (Nov 2011) N/A
2011 +3.3 +4.2
2010 +2.0 +1.9
2009 +3.5 +0.6
2008 +4.0 +3.9
2007 +3.4 +2.8
2006 +2.4 +2.4
2005 +1.0 +1.7
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
6/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
6
Fig. 11: Tuen Mun So Kwun Wat site details
Source: HKET
Housing Society launch old folks homes
The HK Housing Society (HKHS) is launching two projects in North Point and Tin Shui
Wai to cater the needs of better-off retirees above age 60. The scheme termed Joyous
Living" comprise of 588 units development at Tanner Hill in North Point and a 950 unitsdevelopment along Wetland Park Road in Tin Shui Wai. The developments will provide
homes sized between 500sf to1,000sf with a few around 1,300sf. The units will be
available for a long-term lease subject to a one-off lump-sum payment starting at a rent
of HKD3mn. The Tanner Hill and the Wetland Park Road projects are slated for
completion in early 2015 and late 2016 respectively. (Source South China Morning Post
& Hong Kong Housing Society, February 7&8, 2012)
Fig. 12: HKHS: Joyous Living Projects details
Source: HKHS
Estate agents' application numbers down 50% y-y
The low transaction volume and commissions levels over the past six months have
resulted in a significant drop in new estate agent applications. The number of
prospective licensees of the Estate Agents Qualifying Examination dropped 55% from
the peak of 4,000 in 2011 to only 1,800 in February 2012. The Estate Agents Authority
expects the number of prospective licensees to continue to drop. (Source: Hong Kong
Economic Times. February 8. 2012).
Site area (sf) 722,770
Plot ratio (x) 1.3
GFA (sf) 939,600
Units not less than 1,100
Winning bid price (HKD mn) 2,739
AV (HKD psf) 2,915
Bidders (no.) 7
Company awarded the land Kerry
Total project cost (HKD mn) 6,000
Other bidders
Cheung Kong,
Henderson Land,
SHKP, NWD, Sino
Land, China
Overseas Holdings
Project Tanner Hill Project Wetland Park Road Project
Location
Tanner Road, North Point, Hong
Kong
Tin Shui Wai Area 115, Wetland Park
Road, New Territories
Unit (no.) 588 about 950
GFA (sf)
500sf - 1,000sf (f ew units of
1,300sf are available)
500sf - 1,000sf (few units of 1,300sf
are available)
Type
Studio, one bedroom, tw o
bedroom and three bedroom units
Studio, one bedroom, tw o bedroom and
three bedroom units
Expected
move-in
date Early 2015 End of 2016
Facilities
Clubhouse, Wellness Centre, Day
Care Centre. Rehabilitation Centre,
Skilled Care Facilities, Restaurant
and Retail Store
Clubhouse, Wellness Centre, Day Care
Centre, Rehabilitation Centre, Skilled
Care Facilities, Restaurant, Retail, Hotel
and Store
Application Late 2013/early 2014 End of 2016
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
7/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
7
Beijings office rent surged more than 75% a year
According to Cushman & Wakefield, an international property consultant, Beijings office
rent rose more than 75% y-y with demand outstripping supply. The surge in Beijings
office rents was a sharp increase compared with 2010 (+48%) and was the biggest
increase in the world last year. With office rents of USD130psf p.a., Beijing was the fifth
most expensive office location after HK, London, Tokyo and Moscow. On an overall
basis, Asia Pacific registered an 8% growth in rents last year, the highest rate of growth
among the world. (Source: South China Morning Post, February 7, 2012)
Fig. 13: Most expensive office rents in the world
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
8/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
8
Share buybacks and weekly best & worstperformers
Share buybacks and stakeholder increases
Fig. 14: Recent insider transactions summary
Source: HKEx, SGX, Nomura research
With reporting season approaching, many property companies are now in their blackout
periods. There were no buyback or stakeholder increases last week
Weekly and YTD best and worst performers
Fig. 15: Weekly performance
Source: Bloomberg; prices as of 10 February 2012
Fig. 16: YTD performance
Source: Bloomberg; prices as of 10 February 2012
Over the past week, HK property stocks rose 1.7% w-w. While HK property stocks
outperformed the Hang Seng Index (+0.1% w-w), they underperformed their Chinese
peers (+5.4% w-w). On an individual basis, Chinese property companies performed the
best, taking up four out of five weekly best-performer slots, including Greentown China
(27.4% w-w), KWG Property (14.1% w-w), Beijing Capital Land (+9.9% w-w) and Shimao
Property (+9.1% w-w). HK Land was the only Hong Kong company within the top five
with its 8.8% w-w gain. On the flipside, Hong Kong developers accounted for four out offive worst-performer slots. Henderson Land was the worst performer of the week with an
-2.4% w-w decline. Year to date, KWG Property took over the top slot with its 48.5% gain
while Soho China was the worst YTD performer with its 1.4% gain so far in 2012.
Company Type (stake
increase/ share
buyback)
Time Frame Stake change
(mn shares)
Amount
Committed
(HK$mn)
Average Price
(HK$)
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
27.4%
14.1%
9.9%9.1% 8.8%
0.1% 0.0%
-1.1%-1.9%-2.4%-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
GreentownChina
KWGProperty
BeijingC
apitalLand
ShimaoProperty
HKLand
SHKP
Ch
eungKong
RenheC
ommercial
SinoLand
HendersonLand
Weekly 5 Best Performers Weekly 5 Worst Performers
48%46%
44% 44%39%
7%4% 3%
1% 1%
0%
15%
30%
45%
KWG
Property
NewW
orldDev
ShimaoProperty
Guang
zhouR&F
Agil
eProperty
For
tuneREIT
Sw
irePacific
RenheC
ommercial
LinkREIT
SohoChina
YTD 5 Best Performers YTD 5 Worst Performers
Best Weekly: Greentown(+27.4% w-w)Worst Weekly: Henderson Land(-2.4% w-w)
Best YTD: KWG Property
(+48.5% w-w)
Worst YTD: Soho China
(-1.4% w-w)
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
9/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
9
Consensus net income and DPS estimatechangesFig. 17: Consensus net income and DPS estimate changes
Source Bloomberg
As the earning season has begun, earning revisions are noted for every company except
Hang Lung Properties and HKR Intl. Developers saw their earnings cut by 0.1% for
FY12 while FY11 and FY13 earnings were raised by 0.1% and 0.3%. The most
prominent changes were for Prosperity REIT with its FY12-13F estimates cut by 1.6% w-
w and 2.3% w-w and Midland Holdings with its FY13F estimates adjusted upward by
2.8% w-w. Other notable revisions were for Cheung Kong (FY11-13F: 0.5%/-1.1%/-1.3%
w-w), Swire Pacific (FY11F: -1.2% w-w). The landlords saw mild revisions with FY11-FY13 earnings revised by -0.1%, 0.0% and 0.1% w-w, respectively. REITs DPS
estimates for FY11-13F were adjusted by 0.5%/-0.6%/-1.2% this week, respectively.
.
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Net Income Net Income Net Income
Year End 10-Feb 3-Feb Change 10-Feb 3-Feb Change 10-Feb 3-Feb Change
Hong Kong Property Developers
1 HK Cheung Kong Dec 23,632 23,516 0.5% 22,332 22,578 -1.1% 25,871 26,206 -1.3%12 HK Henderson Land Dec 6,066 6,093 -0.4% 6,797 6,777 0.3% 6,740 6,725 0.2%16 HK SHKP Jun - - - 20,510 20,620 -0.5% 19,575 19,637 -0.3%17 HK New World Dev Jun - - - 5,545 5,535 0.2% 5,720 5,704 0.3%83 HK Sino Land Jun - - - 4,594 4,586 0.2% 5,670 5,584 1.5%
101 HK Hang Lung Properties Jun - - - 4,242 4,242 0.0% 5,893 5,893 0.0%480 HK HKR Int'l Mar - - - 1,120 1,120 0.0% 531 531 0.0%683 HK Kerry Properties Dec 4,070 4,057 0.3% 4,666 4,670 -0.1% 4,137 4,146 -0.2%
1200 HK Midland Holdings Dec 292 292 0.0% 324 324 0.0% 344 335 2.8%Average 0.1% -0.1% 0.3%
Hong Kong Property Investors
4 HK Wharf Dec 7,991 7,989 0.0% 9,538 9,545 -0.1% 11,043 11,043 0.0%14 HK Hysan Dec 1,274 1,274 0.0% 1,461 1,469 -0.6% 1,710 1,729 -1.1%19 HK Swire Pacific Dec 9,798 9,913 -1.2% 10,762 10,762 0.0% 11,071 11,071 0.0%41 HK Great Eagle Dec 1,402 1,401 0.1% 1,340 1,339 0.1% 1,288 1,286 0.1%
HKL SP HK Land (US$) Dec 697 692 0.6% 680 675 0.7% 786 776 1.3%Average -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
DPS DPS DPS
Year End 10-Feb 3-Feb Change 10-Feb 3-Feb Change 10-Feb 3-Feb ChangeHK REITs
823 HK Link REIT Mar - - - 1.27 1.27 -0.2% 1.38 1.38 -0.2%808 HK Prosperity REIT Dec 0.12 0.12 0.0% 0.12 0.13 -1.6% 0.13 0.13 -2.3%
2778 HK Champion REIT Dec 0.22 0.22 0.9% 0.23 0.23 0.0% 0.21 0.21 -1.0%Average 0.5% -0.6% -1.2%
FY11F: Cheung Kong (1.9% w-w)& Kerry Properties (-1.2% w-w)
FY12F: NWD (+3.5% w-w) &Hang Lung Properties (+3.0% w-w)
FY13F: NWD (2.2% w-w) & HangLung Properties (1.4% w-w)
Major consensus changes:
FY11F: Swire Pacific (-1.2% w-
w) & Champion REIT (+0.9% w-
w)
FY12F: Cheung Kong (-1.1% w-
w) & Prosperity REIT (
-1.6% w-w)FY13F: Midland Holdings
(+2.8% w-w) & Prosperity REIT
(-2.3% w-w)
Major consensus changes:
FY11F: Swire Pacific (-1.2% w-
w) & Champion REIT (+0.9% w-
w)
FY12F: Cheung Kong (-1.1% w-
w) & Prosperity REIT (
-1.6% w-w)FY13F: Midland Holdings
(+2.8% w-w) & Prosperity REIT
(-2.3% w-w)
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
10/16
http://www.nomura.com/ -
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
11/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
11
Appendix 2: Share-price performanceFig. 19: Price performance one week to one year
Note: Share prices as of 10 February 2012, close. Ratings are as of the date of the most recently published report (http://www.Nomura.com) rather than the date of thisdocument. Source: Bloomberg for not rated stocks, Nomura estimates
Mkt. Cap Currency Last 52 Wk 52 Wk Performance (%) Relative Performance (%)
Ratings (US $mn) Price High Low 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y YTD 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y YTD
Hong Kong Property Developers
1 HK Cheung Kong BUY 31,120 HKD 104.8 131.8 79.1 0 11 14 (2) (11) 13 (0) 2 4 (7) (3) 1
12 HK Henderson Land BUY 12,907 HKD 42.5 57.0 33.2 (2) 6 5 (3) (13) 10 (3) (3) (4) (7) (5) (2)
16 HK SHKP BUY 36,780 HKD 109.7 129.2 85.5 0 11 11 5 (7) 13 (0) 2 2 0 1 (0)
17 HK New World Dev BUY 7,174 HKD 9.2 13.5 6.1 6 34 32 9 (23) 46 6 23 21 4 (16) 30
83 HK Sino Land BUY 9,483 HKD 12.6 13.2 8.5 (2) 11 23 30 3 14 (2) 1 12 24 13 1
101 HK Hang Lung Properties NEUTRAL 16,028 HKD 28.0 36.3 20.9 3 19 7 7 (9) 26 3 9 (2) 2 (0) 12
480 HK HKR Int'l BUY 497 HKD 2.9 5.0 2.2 1 15 (8) (24) (39) 18 1 5 (16) (28) (33) 5
683 HK Kerry Properties BUY 5,975 HKD 32.4 42.0 22.9 7 24 12 (3) (13) 26 6 14 2 (7) (5) 12
1200 HK **Midland Holdings BUY 414 HKD 4.5 6.4 3.0 7 12 24 25 (18) 12 7 3 13 19 (10) (1)
Weighted Average 1 14 13 4 (10) 17 1 4 3 (1) (1) 4
Hong Kong Landlords
4 HK Wharf NEUTRAL 18,001 HKD 46.4 59.0 33.2 2 23 13 (9) (8) 32 2 12 3 (14) 0 17
14 HK Hysan NEUTRAL 4,171 HKD 30.7 39.3 22.5 1 17 21 (10) (6) 20 1 7 10 (14) 3 7
19 HK Swire Pacific BUY 16,251 HKD 85.6 103.9 69.3 2 11 3 6 (7) 4 1 1 (6) 1 1 (7)
41 HK Great Eagle BUY 1,632 HKD 20.3 29.0 14.2 1 29 24 (8) (18) 33 1 18 13 (12) (11) 18
HKL SP HK Land NEUTRAL 13,000 USD 5.6 7.5 4.2 9 14 21 (4) (14) 22 7 4 14 (8) (9) 9
Weighted Average 3 17 13 (3) (9) 20 3 7 4 (8) (2) 7
HK REITs
823 HK Link REIT NEUTRAL 8,411 HKD 29.0 29.4 23.1 3 3 6 13 22 1 3 (6) (3) 8 34 (10)
808 HK Prosperity REIT BUY 305 HKD 1.7 2.0 1.3 5 13 12 5 (2) 16 5 3 2 0 7 3
2778 HK Champion REIT NEUTRAL 2,129 HKD 3.4 4.8 2.7 8 14 10 (12) (24) 15 8 5 1 (16) (17) 2
1881 HK Regal REIT NR 864 HKD 2.1 2.7 1.4 1 16 18 (11) (8) 16 1 6 8 (16) 0 3
FRT SP Fortune REIT NR 842 HKD 3.9 4.1 3.2 1 3 12 11 3 7 (0) (5) 5 6 8 (4)
435 HK Sunlight REIT NR 511 HKD 2.5 2.6 1.9 2 8 12 12 10 12 2 (1) 2 6 20 (1)
Weighted Average 4 6 8 7 10 6 4 (3) (1) 2 20 (6)
China Property Developers
688 HK China Overseas Land BUY 16,052 HKD 15.3 17.9 10.0 2 17 15 (6) 17 18 2 7 5 (11) 27 5
1109 HK China Resources Land BUY 11,085 HKD 14.8 15.9 7.3 5 18 30 13 18 19 5 8 18 8 29 5
3377 HK Sino Ocean Land NEUTRAL 3,099 HKD 4.3 5.1 2.2 6 24 41 17 (9) 19 6 14 29 12 (1) 5
410 HK Soho China NR 3,486 HKD 5.2 7.4 4.6 3 2 4 (15) (5) 1 3 (7) (5) (19) 4 (10)
813 HK Shimao Property BUY 4,252 HKD 9.6 12.4 5.4 9 45 38 10 (8) 44 9 32 26 4 0 28
2777 HK Guangzhou R&F NEUTRAL 3,644 HKD 8.8 12.0 5.5 8 38 27 1 (13) 44 8 26 16 (4) (5) 27
2007 HK Country Garden BUY 7,707 HKD 3.6 4.2 1.9 8 20 34 1 21 24 8 9 23 (4) 32 10
3900 HK Greentown China NR 938 HKD 4.5 9.2 3.0 27 42 (2) (26) (46) 32 27 30 (11) (29) (41) 17
1813 HK KWG Property BUY 1,443 HKD 3.9 6.5 2.3 14 39 34 (19) (28) 48 14 27 22 (23) (21) 32
119 HK Poly (HK) Investments BUY 1,985 HKD 4.3 7.4 2.1 7 34 30 (11) (34) 27 7 23 19 (16) (28) 13
1387 HK Renhe Commercial NR 2,494 HKD 0.9 1.8 0.8 (1) 11 (13) (40) (24) 3 (1) 1 (21) (43) (17) (8)
1668 HK China South City Holdings NR 829 HKD 1.1 1.5 0.9 2 4 7 (10) (20) 8 2 (5) (2) (14) NA (4)
272 HK Shui On Land BUY 1,931 HKD 2.9 3.8 1.7 5 22 28 (4) (18) 22 5 11 17 (9) (11) 9
604 HK Shenzhen Investment NR 837 HKD 1.8 2.7 1.2 8 30 17 (3) (26) 29 8 19 7 (7) (19) 15
754 HK Hopson NR 1,217 HKD 5.5 9.6 3.6 8 42 22 (2) (38) 36 8 30 11 (7) (32) 20
917 HK New World China NR 2,206 HKD 2.0 3.0 1.5 5 22 22 (18) (31) 28 5 12 12 (22) (24) 14
2868 HK Beijing Capital Land NR 528 HKD 2.0 3.2 1.3 10 35 4 (8) (16) 31 10 24 (5) (13) (8) 16
3383 HK Agile Property BUY 4,263 HKD 9.6 14.2 4.2 5 37 53 (15) (12) 39 5 26 40 (19) (4) 23
200002 CH Vanke NR 13,506 HKD 8.9 11.6 6.0 6 14 9 (4) (7) 15 6 4 (0) (8) 1 2
Weighted Average 6 22 22 (3) (1) 22 5 11 12 (8) 8 9
China REITs
87001 HK Hui Xian REIT NR 2,601 CNY 4.1 5.2 2.7 1 15 20 N.A N.A (22) 1 6 N.A N.A N.A (31)
405 HK GZI REIT NR 525 HKD 3.8 4.4 3.1 4 11 9 (3) (5) 12 4 2 (1) (8) 3 (1)
625 HK REEF China Trust NR 259 HKD 4.4 4.4 4.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (9) (9) (5) 9 (11)
Weighted Average 1 14 17 (0) (1) (15) 1 4 (1) (2) 1 (25)
** Midland Holding- Property Broker
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
12/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
12
Appendix 3: Asia Ex Japan PropertyResearch Team
Fig. 20: Asia Ex Japan Property Research Team
Name Country coverage Telephone Email
Paul Louie Regional Head, Asia & Hong Kong +852 2252 6189 [email protected]
Alvin Wong China +852 2252 1563 [email protected]
Aatash Shah India +91 22 4037 4194 [email protected]
Min Chow Sai Singapore +65 6433 6959 [email protected]
Jianping Chen China +852 2252 2139 [email protected]
Vineet Verma India +91 22 4053 3675 [email protected]
mailto:paul.louie@mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:paul.louie@ -
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
13/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
13
Appendix A-1
Analyst Certification
I, Paul Louie, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any
or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my
compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc.,
Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
14/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
14
Important DisclosuresOnline availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosuresNomura research is available on www.nomuranow.com, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne.Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx or requestedfrom Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please [email protected] for help.The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, aportion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report arenot registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject toFINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities heldby a research analyst account.Industry Specialistsidentified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for thesales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content ofresearch reports in which their names appear. Marketing Analystsidentified in some Nomura research reports are research analysts employedby Nomura International plc who are primarily responsible for marketing Nomuras Equity Research product in the sector for which they havecoverage. Marketing Analysts may also contribute to research reports in which their names appear and publish research on their sector. Distribution of ratings (US)The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura US Equity Research is as follows: 35% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 11% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.59% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 2% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.6% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 0% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.As at 31 December 2011. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report.Distribution of ratings (Global)The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows: 47% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 40% of companies with thisrating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.43% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 45% of companies withthis rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.10% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 21% of companies withthis rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*.As at 31 December 2011. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report.Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin AmericaThe rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock.Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to target price defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited managementdiscretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriatevaluation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc.STOCKSA rating of 'Buy',indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral',indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ' Reduce', indicates thatthe analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating, targetprice and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstancesincluding, but not limited to, when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks(accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page: http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal);GlobalEmerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology.SECTORSA 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance,indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates thatthe analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months.Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI EmergingMarkets ex-Asia.Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan and Asia ex-JapanSTOCKSStock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price,subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock,based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc.A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than15% or downside is less than 5%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'Suspended'indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certaincircumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company.
http://www.nomuranow.com/http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspxmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportalhttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportalmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspxhttp://www.nomuranow.com/ -
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
15/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
15
Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entityidentified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/orcompanies.SECTORSA 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positiveabsolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocksunder coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted averagerecommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation..Target PriceA Target Price, if discussed, reflect in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may beimpeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if thecompany's earnings differ from estimates.
-
8/3/2019 Nomura Hong Kong Property 120213
16/16
Nomura | Hong Kong property February 13, 2012
16
DisclaimersThis document contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura entity identified at the top or bottom of page 1 herein, if any, and/or, with the sole or jointcontributions of one or more Nomura entities whose employees and their respective affiliations are specified on page 1 herein or identified elsewhere in thedocument. Affiliates and subsidiaries of Nomura Holdings, Inc. (collectively, the 'Nomura Group'), include: Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan;Nomura International plc ('NIplc'), UK; Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NSI'), New York, US; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), Hong Kong;Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd. (NFIK), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association('KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet at http://dis.kofia.or.kr ); Nomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL), Singapore (Registration number 197201440E, regulated bythe Monetary Authority of Singapore); Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited (CNS), Thailand; Nomura Australia Ltd. (NAL), Australia (ABN 48 003032 513), regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission ('ASIC') and holder of an Australian financial services licence number 246412; P.T.Nomura Indonesia (PTNI), Indonesia; Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (NSM), Malaysia; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch (NITB),Taiwan; Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited (NFASL), Mumbai, India (Registered Address: Ceejay House, Level 11, Plot F, ShivsagarEstate, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai- 400 018, India; Tel: +91 22 4037 4037, Fax: +91 22 4037 4111; SEBI Registration No: BSE INB011299030, NSEINB231299034, INF231299034, INE 231299034, MCX: INE261299034); Banque Nomura France (BNF), regulated by the Autorit des marches financiers and the
Autorit de Contrle Prudentiel; NIplc, Dubai Branch (NIplc, Dubai); NIplc, Madrid Branch (NIplc, Madrid) and NIplc, Italian Branch (NIplc, Italy).This material is: (i) for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (ii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offerto buy any security in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be illegal; and (iii) based upon information from sources that we consider reliable, but hasnot been independently verified by Nomura Group.Nomura Group does not warrant or represent that the document is accurate, complete, reliable, fit for any particular purpose or merchantable and does not acceptliability for any act (or decision not to act) resulting from use of this document and related data. To the maximum extent permissible all warranties and otherassurances by Nomura group are hereby excluded and Nomura Group shall have no liability for the use, misuse, or distribution of this information.Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original publication date appearing on this material and the information, including the opinions andestimates contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nomura Group is under no duty to update this document. Any comments or statements madeherein are those of the author(s) and may differ from views held by other parties within Nomura Group. Clients should consider whether any advice orrecommendation in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. Nomura Group doesnot provide tax advice.Nomura Group, and/or its officers, directors and employees, may, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, deal as principal, agent, or otherwise,or have long or short positions in, or buy or sell, the securities, commodities or instruments, or options or other derivative instruments based thereon, of issuers orsecurities mentioned herein. Nomura Group companies may also act as market maker or liquidity provider (as defined within Financial Services Authority (FSA)rules in the UK) in the financial instruments of the issuer. Where the activity of market maker is carried out in accordance with the definition given to it by specificlaws and regulations of the US or other jurisdictions, this will be separately disclosed within the specific issuer disclosures.This document may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from credit ratings agencies such as Standard & Poors. Reproduction and
distribution of third party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third party. Third party content providers do notguarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligentor otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third party content providers give no express or implied warranties,including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third party content providers shall not be liable for any direct,indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or profits andopportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including ratings. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact orrecommendations to purchase hold or sell securities. They do not address the suitability of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes, andshould not be relied on as investment advice.Any MSCI sourced information in this document is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and anyother MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, re-disseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is providedon an "as is" basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computingor compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose withrespect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to,computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates.Investors should consider this document as only a single factor in making their investment decision and, as such, the report should not be viewed as identifying orsuggesting all risks, direct or indirect, that may be associated with any investment decision. Nomura Group produces a number of different types of research productincluding, among others, fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis and short term trading ideas; recommendations contained in one type of research product maydiffer from recommendations contained in other types of research product, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. Nomura Grouppublishes research product in a number of different ways including the posting of product on Nomura Group portals and/or distribution directly to clients. Different
groups of clients may receive different products and services from the research department depending on their individual requirements.Figures presented herein may refer to past performance or simulations based on past performance which are not reliable indicators of future performance. Wherethe information contains an indication of future performance, such forecasts may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. Moreover, simulations are basedon models and simplifying assumptions which may oversimplify and not reflect the future distribution of returns.Certain securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of, or income derived from, the investment.The securities described herein may not have been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 (the 1933 Act), and, in such case, may not be offered or sold inthe US or to US persons unless they have been registered under the 1933 Act, or except in compliance with an exemption from the registration requirements of the1933 Act. Unless governing law permits otherwise, any transaction should be executed via a Nomura entity in your home jurisdiction.This document has been approved for distribution in the UK and European Economic Area as investment research by NIplc, which is authorized and regulated bythe FSA and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. It does not constitute a personal recommendation, as defined by the FSA, or take into account theparticular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. It is intended only for investors who are 'eligible counterparties' or 'professionalclients' as defined by the FSA, and may not, therefore, be redistributed to retail clients as defined by the FSA. This document has been approved by NIHK, which isregulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, for distribution in Hong Kong by NIHK. This document has been approved for distribution inAustralia by NAL, which is authorized and regulated in Australia by the ASIC. This document has also been approved for distribution in Malaysia by NSM. InSingapore, this document has been distributed by NSL. NSL accepts legal responsibility for the content of this document, where it concerns securities, futures andforeign exchange, issued by their foreign affiliates in respect of recipients who are not accredited, expert or institutional investors as defined by the Securities andFutures Act (Chapter 289). Recipients of this document in Singapore should contact NSL in respect of matters arising from, or in connection with, this document.Unless prohibited by the provisions of Regulation S of the 1933 Act, this material is distributed in the US, by NSI, a US-registered broker-dealer, which accepts
responsibility for its contents in accordance with the provisions of Rule 15a-6, under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
This document has not been approved for distribution in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) or to clients other than 'professional clients' in the United ArabEmirates (UAE) by Nomura Saudi Arabia, NIplc or any other member of Nomura Group, as the case may be. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may betaken or transmitted or distributed, directly or indirectly, by any person other than those authorised to do so into Saudi Arabia or in the UAE or to any person locatedin Saudi Arabia or to clients other than 'professional clients' in the UAE. By accepting to receive this document, you represent that you are not located in SaudiArabia or that you are a 'professional client' in the UAE and agree to comply with these restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute aviolation of the laws of Saudi Arabia or the UAE.NO PART OF THIS MATERIAL MAY BE (I) COPIED, PHOTOCOPIED, OR DUPLICATED IN ANY FORM, BY ANY MEANS; OR (II) REDISTRIBUTED WITHOUTTHE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF A MEMBER OF NOMURA GROUP. Further information on any of the securities mentioned herein may be obtained uponrequest. If this document has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free asinformation could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errorsor omissions in the contents of this document, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request a hard-copy version.Nomura Group manages conflicts with respect to the production of research through its compliance policies and procedures (including, but not limited to, Conflicts ofInterest, Chinese Wall and Confidentiality policies) as well as through the maintenance of Chinese walls and employee training.Additional information is available upon request. Disclosure information is available at the Nomura Disclosure webpage:http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx
http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspxhttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspxhttp://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx