Nominations, Campaigns & Elections, Voting Behavior...

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10/25/2016 1 9/10 Nominations, Campaigns & Election Voting Behavior Alex Brandon/AP Images

Transcript of Nominations, Campaigns & Elections, Voting Behavior...

10/25/2016

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9/10

Nominations, Campaigns & Elections, Voting Behavior

Alex Brandon/AP Images

10/25/2016

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A. Nomination

A. Party’s official

endorsement of

candidate for office

B. Success =

requires $$$, media attention, & momentum

A. Goal of nomination game win majority of

delegates’ support at national party convention

B. Feb-June of election year

A. State parties choose their

delegates to national convention

through caucuses or primaries

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• 4,765 total delegates (supers)

– Elected or chosen at state or local

level

– Not bound

• Superdelegates (714)

– Members of Congress, Governors,

former Presidents, & other party

leaders & elected officials

• Proportional representation

– A candidate who wins 40% of state's

vote in primary will win 40% of state's

delegates

• Must win 15% of primary vote / simple

majority

• 2,472 pledged (unpledged) delegates – Elected or chosen at state or local

level

– Simple majority of 1,237 at RNC

• Unpledged delegates – Each state/territory has

3 RNC members • Only 168 of total number of delegates

• Must vote for candidate state voted for

• Winner-take-all system – Popular vote determines winning

candidate for that state

• Proportional representation (2012) – RNC doesn’t require 15% minimum

threshold, individual state parties may impart such a threshold

• Select delegates for national convention – Voters discuss & debate

candidates

– Loud & interactive

• Voting – Raising hands or

breaking into groups (secret ballots)

• Open to all voters registered w/party – Iowa 1st

• Statewide voting

– Private ballots

– Quiet

– Can vote for any

candidate, regardless

of party affiliation

• Open to all voters registered w/party

– New Hampshire

1st primary (2nd overall)

• Democratic Party reformed

its delegate selection procedures after highly

conflicted national

convention in 1968

– Proposed by McGovern-Fraser

Commission

• Created superdelegates,

representing state & national

party leaders (votes counts as

more)

• Practice of frontloading

– States move primaries up in

calendar

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• Disproportionate amount of attention goes to early ones

• Running for pres. full-time job

• $$$ too big a role • Participation is low (not

representative of voting pop) – 60% votes in Nov. vs. 20%

presidential primaries • Better educated

• More affluent voters

• Too much power to media

• National primary (only one)

– Direct & simple

– Length & cost reduced

– Only one media

• Critics

– Require runoff election between

top 2 finishers to avoid having a

candidate win w/ only plurality

– Big money & intense attention

becomes more crucial

– Obscure candidates NEVER have

chance

• Regional primaries? – Groups of states would vote

week after week

• Critics

– Advantage gained by

whichever region goes first

• “Drama” largely drained from conventions

– winner is usually a foregone

conclusion

• Preferences of delegates

known before conventions begin

– 1976 - Gerald Ford barely defeated

Ronald Reagan for Republican

nomination

• Today carefully scripted to

present party in best light

• Significant rallying point for

parties & important in developing party’s policy

positions

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• Once nominated concentrate on campaigning for general election in Nov (8)

• 3 ingredients needed to project right image to the voters: – Campaign organization

– Money

– Media attention

• Candidates must succeed in numerous key areas: 1. Get a campaign manager

2. Get a research staff & policy advisers

3. Hire a pollster

4. Get a good press secretary

5. Establish a Web site

• Campaigns

expensive & growing

– Need money to build

a campaign

organization & get

message out

– Common perception

• Money buys votes &

influence

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• Provisions of act : 1. Bipartisan FEC created to administer campaign

finance laws & enforce compliance

2. Created Presidential Election Campaign Fund

3. Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries thru matching funds

4. Provided full public financing for major party candidates in general election

5. All candidates must file periodic financial disclosure reports, listing who contributed funds & how the money was spent

6. Limited contributions, w/ 1. individual contributions restricted to $1,000

2. McCain-Feingold Act raised limit to $2,000 as of 2004

3. PACs can give up to $5,000 per federal candidate per election.

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• Limiting impact of money is a difficult task—loopholes are hard to close.

• Soft Money – 1979 - made it easier for parties to

raise money for voter registration drives & distribution of campaign material at grass roots level

– 2002 McCain-Feingold Act finally banned soft money after years of complaints by public-minded observers.

• “527 groups” (named after a federal tax code section) are now loophole of choice – Do not directly endorse candidates,

but make strong & obvious attacks on their opponents

• 1974 - any interest group can form its own PAC to directly channel contributions – $5,000 per candidate

– Expenditures accountable to FEC

• Proliferated in recent years & play a major role in paying for expensive campaigns – Contributed $258 million to

congressional candidates for 2002 campaign

• Critics – System of open graft (corruption)

– Fear money from PACs leads too much influence over winner

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• AKA “independent-expenditure only committees”

– May NOT make contributions

to candidate campaigns or

parties

– May engage in unlimited

political spending

independently

• NO legal limit on donation size

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• Money is crucial but not always successful

• Media coverage

– Determined by how

candidates use their

advertising budget & “free”

attention they get as news

makers

• Candidate ads teach more than news coverage

– Tends to focus on horse

race aspects of campaign

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• Political scientists state campaigns have 3 effects on voters: 1. Reinforcement

2. Activation (contributions, action)

3. Conversion (change minds) RARE!

• 3 factors that weaken campaigns’ impact on voters: 1. Selective perception

• Paying most attention to positions already agree w/

2. Party identification still influencing voting behavior

3. Incumbents have substantial advantage (name recognition & an established record)

• Elections legitimize actions

of elected officials

– People within a nation

accept procedures by

which rules & transfers of

power are made

– American voters rarely

question fairness of

election results

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• Three basic kinds of elections

– Primary Elections

– General Elections

– Elections over Policies

• Legitimacy

– Universally accepted

as being fair

• Nationwide Vote does not exist

• States hold votes

• Two ways for items to get on a ballot

– Referendum

– Initiative Petition

• Legislation brought up by government

• Voters approve or disapprove

Lewis

Jones

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• Used to propose changes to a state constitution

• Not allowed in all states

• Need 10% of previous election’s voters

• Example of a petition

• Specifically over

• Legalization of marijuana

• in Colorado

• Video by Fox 31 Denver

• Elections have changed dramatically since 1800 when Adams ran against Jefferson.

– By 1896, it was

acceptable for candidates

to campaign in person, as

William Jennings Bryan

did.

– Today, campaigns are

slick, high-tech affairs.

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VS John Adams Thomas Jefferson

• Lack of:

– Primaries

– Nominating conventions

– Candidate speeches

– Reporter entourages

• Campaigning:

– Done by state & local

organizations

• Communication & travel

were too slow for the

candidates to personally

campaign

• Newspaper integrity

– NO laws against honesty

of news

• Partisan newspapers ran

down opposition's candidate

• Accusations

– Jefferson:

• “Bible-burning atheist”

• Father of mulatto children

• Mad scientist

– Adams:

• Monarchist

• Vicious tyrant

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• Jeffersonians won by slim margin in electoral votes

• VP Placement

• Jefferson's ideal situation:

– Rigged electors to elect

Aaron Burr as VP

– Plan backfired & Jefferson &

Burr tied

• Burr's ideal situation:

– Tried to seize presidency

– Attempted to make deal w/

federalist HOR

– Plan failed

Aaron Burr-

Friend turned foe

• Marks first peaceful transfer of power between parties via electoral process

M

M

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VS William Jennings Bryan William McKinley

• Convention in St. Louis

– William McKinley was

clear front runner

• Major issues

– Support for gold standard

• Debtors couldn't get a break

from inflation

– Support for high tariffs

• Protected capitalists from

foreign competition

• Convention in Chicago

– No clear front-runner

– William Jennings Bryan

won nomination on fifth

ballot

• Became youngest nominee

of major party

• Major issues

– Unlimited coinage of silver

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• McKinley

– Stayed in Ohio

• Ran front-porch campaign

– Labeled democrats as “party

of depression”

• “In God We Trust, In Bryan We

Bust”

• Bryan

– Campaigned in person

• Gave 600 speeches

• Traveled through 26 states

• covered 18,000 miles

– Attracted debtors & silver

miners

front porch campaign

These cartoons show that the main issue of the

election was the gold standard vs. free silver.

• McKinley (republicans) won handly

– 271-176 electoral votes

• Republicans were supported by

– manufacturers

– industrial northeast & midwest

• Democrats were supported by

– white southerners

– westerners in silver producing

states

– rural debtors

• Realigning election

– Ended 3rd party system

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VS George Bush Al Gore

• George W. Bush (R)

– Ran off restoring dignity after

Clinton

– Tax cuts

• Al Gore (D)

– Looked forward to future

– New government spending

• Ralph Nader (I)

– Green Party

– Raised issues neither

candidates discussed

• Florida

– Too close to call

– Recount called

– Bush won Florida by 537 votes

• Gore didn’t concede

– Caused legal battle over recounting in

Florida

– Thought he had won

• Courts

– 1st time court played role in election • Determined not enough time to recount

completely

• Recounting doesn’t treat every vote equally

– SC recount unconstitutional

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• Ralph Nader

– Took 2% of the popular vote

– Received 97,000 votes

– Gore lost by 537

• Chad Ballots

– Punch cards that were not all the way

punched

– Counties in Fl that used punch cards voted

primarily Gore

– Theoretically this would have given him the

win

• Gore won popular vote, lost election

• Bush: 47.9% & 271 electoral

• Gore: 48.4% & 266 electoral

• Who votes & who stays home?

– As the right to vote has been extended,

proportionately fewer of those eligible

have chosen to exercise that right.

• Highest turnout of past 100 years (80 percent

turnout in 1896); in 2008, 61 percent of the

adult population voted for president.

– Reason why many people vote a high

sense of political efficacy

• Belief that ordinary people can influence the

government.

– Those who vote out of a sense of civic duty

are people who vote simply to support

democratic government (even if they are

indifferent about the outcome).

• Registering to vote

– Voter registration started around turn of 20th century (prevent

corruption associated w/ stuffing the ballot boxes.

– Registration procedures differ from state to state

• Easiest (upper Great Plains & Northwest)

– No registration in North Dakota, & 4 states permit registration on election day

• Toughest (South)

– Lowest voter turnout rates

• 1993 Motor Voter Act

– Act requires states to permit people to register to vote at the same time citizens apply for

driver’s licenses.

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• Several characteristics of voters &

nonvoters:

1. Voting is a class-biased activity

1. People w/ higher than average education &

income levels have a higher rate of voting

2. Young people have the lowest

turnout rate

3. Whites vote w/ greater frequency

4. Women are slightly more likely than

men to vote.

5. Married people are more likely to vote

than unmarried people.

6. Government employees have higher

than average turnout levels.

• Mandate theory of elections. – Many believe winner an election has

mandate from people to carry out policies promised

– Conversely, political scientists know that people rarely vote a certain way for the same reasons.

– Political scientists focus instead on 3 major elements of voters’ decisions: 1. Voters’ party identification

2. Voters’ evaluations of the candidates

3. Policy voting

• Scholars singled out party affiliation as the single best predictor of a voter’s decision in the 1950s.

• Voting along party lines is less common today, particularly in elections for the House of Representatives, where incumbency is now of paramount importance.

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• Research by Miller, Wattenberg, & Malanchuk shows that the three most important components of candidate image are: – Integrity

• 2000, George W. Bush scored higher than Al Gore in dimension of integrity

– Reliability • Dependable & decisive

• George H. W. Bush’s image of reliability suffered when he broke “no new taxes” pledge made during his 1992 campaign

– Competence • Experience is one of the reasons

it is hard to beat an incumbent president

• Policy voting occurs when people base their choices in an election on their own issue preferences

• Can take place only when several conditions are met: – Voters must:

• Have clear view of own policy positions

• Know where candidates stand on policy issues

• See a difference between candidates on these issues

• Actually cast a vote for candidate whose policy positions coincide w/ their own

• 2004, Obama catapulted to

national prominence

– Message emphasized unity &

multi-culturalism

– Viewed as a rising star &

potential presidential candidate

• Declared his presidential

candidacy in Feb 2007

– Became primary alternative to

front-runner Hillary Clinton

– Obama’s call for change

resonated more effectively than

Clinton’s emphasis on

experience

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• Republican nomination wrapped up faster & more decisively by John McCain

– “Maverick”

• Battle

– Obama’s perceived advantages on economic

issues & personal intelligence vs. McCain’s

perceived advantages on foreign policy

issues & political experience

• Campaign took a turn when credit crisis rocked financial markets

• McCain’s choice of vice president, Sarah Palin did not resonate w/ electorate even though she was an effective campaigner

• Obama was able to successfully link McCain to unpopular President George W. Bush.

• Obama 53 percent of the vote

• McCain’s 46 percent.

• Electoral vote rather than popular vote determines outcome of election – Because founders wanted

president selected by nation’s elite & not directly by people (didn’t trust – too emotional) they created electoral college

– Political practice since 1828 has been for electors to vote for candidate who won their state’s popular vote

• Mechanics of electoral college system – Each state electoral votes U.S.

senators & representatives (36 + 2 = 38)

– Today, state parties nominate slates of electors

– All states except Maine & Nebraska have a winner-take-all system

– Electors meet in December & mail their votes to president of the Senate (vice president of U.S.)

• Vote counted in January, & result is reported by president of Senate

– If no candidate receives an electoral college majority, election is thrown into House of Representatives, which must choose from among top three electoral vote winners.

• Each state delegation has one vote (not each member)

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• Are nominations & campaigns too democratic? 1. The American political system allows citizens a voice at almost every

point of the election process, unlike many countries where a political elite controls nominations & elections. As a result, party outsiders can get elected in a way that is virtually unknown outside the United States.

2. The process has also led to what some call “the permanent campaign.” Some analysts believe the process of openness places numerous demands on citizens; many are overwhelmed by the process & do not participate.

3. The burdens of the modern campaign can also discourage good candidates from entering the fray.

4. The current system of running for office has been labeled by Wattenberg as the “candidate-centered age.” It allows for politicians to decide on their own to run, to raise their own campaign funds, to build their own personal organizations, & to make promises as to how they specifically will act in office.

1. Elections, to some degree, affect public policy, & public policy decisions affect electoral outcomes.

2. The greater the policy differences between the candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policies by their choices.

3. When individual candidates do offer a plan choice to the voters, voters are more able to guide the government’s policy direction.

1. Because states are the key battlegrounds of presidential campaigns, candidates must tailor their appeals to the particular interests of each major state.

2. Candidates end up supporting a variety of local interests in order to secure votes from each region of the country.

3. The way modern campaigns are conducted is thus one of the many reasons why politicians always find it easier to expand the scope of American government than to limit it.

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9.1 Why were party primaries

introduced?

1) Previous nominating process was

undemocratic

2) Candidates refused to run without a change

of nominating procedure

3) Party leadership demanded it

4) All of the above

9.1