NOAA/NWS Water Supply Web PageNOAA/NWS Water Supply Web Page

Jay P. Breidenbach

Sr. Hydrologist

NOAA /National Weather Service

Boise, Idaho

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS Water Supply Web Page Water Supply Web Page

• New design will be ready in December New design will be ready in December

• New interactive forecast and research tools New interactive forecast and research tools

• Partnerships and feedbackPartnerships and feedback

Long Range Seasonal River Volume Forecasts

• Statistical Water Supply Statistical Water Supply

• Regression techniquesRegression techniques

• 168 forecast locations168 forecast locations

• Coordinated forecasts with NRCSCoordinated forecasts with NRCS

• Ensemble Stream Flow Prediction (ESP)Ensemble Stream Flow Prediction (ESP)

• Uses very long runs of NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS)Uses very long runs of NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS)

• Future Temperature and Precipitation is unknown beyond ~ 10 daysFuture Temperature and Precipitation is unknown beyond ~ 10 days

• Assume that what happened in the past represents the range of what Assume that what happened in the past represents the range of what could happen in the future on any given year and use historical could happen in the future on any given year and use historical temperature and precipitation observations as future input into temperature and precipitation observations as future input into hydrology model.hydrology model.

• Generate output in probabilistic formatGenerate output in probabilistic format

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

Seasonal Evolution

Comparison with Similar Years

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

Monthly Ensemble Means and Distributions

Forcing with specific year or ENSO condition.

Cumulative Excedence Probability

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

Shift in average annual hydrograph

50 year stream flow simulations

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwaterwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

FeedbackFeedback

• What types of decisions do you need to What types of decisions do you need to make?make?

• What types of tools do you need to help What types of tools do you need to help make those decisions?make those decisions?

• Developing partnerships to display other Developing partnerships to display other types and sources of forecasts.types and sources of forecasts.