NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD
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Transcript of NOAA Technology Summit Silver Spring, MD
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov
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Program Name or Ancillary Text eere.energy.gov
NOAA Technology SummitSilver Spring, MD
Stan CalvertTeam Lead Wind Technology ApplicationWind and Water Power ProgramEnergy Efficiency and Renewable Energy OfficeDepartment of EnergyNovember 4, 2010
Weather-Dependent Renewable Energy Technologies – Status and Outlook
Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov2
Wind Solar Water Biopower
Large Onshore
Distributed Onshore
Offshore
Concentrating Solar Power
(CSP)
Photovoltaic (PV) Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK)
Ocean Thermal
Conventional
Technology Suite
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Presidential Priorities
Economic• Create green jobs through
Recovery Act energy projects
• Double renewable energy generation by 2012
• Weatherize one million homes annually
Environmental• Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050
• Make the US a leader on climate change
Energy Security• Deploy the cheapest, cleanest,
fastest energy source – energy efficiency
• One million plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2015
• Develop the next generation of sustainable biofuels and infrastructure
• Increase fuel economy for vehicles
Energy efficiency and renewable energy research, development, and deployment activities help the Nation meet its economic, energy security, and environmental
challenges concurrently.
Presidential Priorities
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Energy Mix Analysis
RenewablesTechnologiesRenewablesTechnologies
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DOE Strategy: Wind
Large Scale use of
Wind Energy
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DOE Strategy: Solar
Photovoltaics (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
Market TransformationSystem Integration
Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -
Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -
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Cost-Effective & Sustainable
Domestic MHK
Industry
System Development,
Testing, &Verification Technology
Characterization & Evaluation
Resource Assessments
Environmental &Siting
Economic Analysis &
Market Development
Test Centers & Facilities
Research Tools & Models
DOE Strategy: MHK
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Variable Renewable Energy – Electric Power System Challenges
•Transmission capacity- Resources often distant from
demand
• Variability
• Uncertainty- Forecasting
• Dispatchability
• Complexity
•Transmission capacity- Resources often distant from
demand
• Variability
• Uncertainty- Forecasting
• Dispatchability
• Complexity
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Regulation Ramping Peak shaving, load leveling
Seconds to Minutes Minutes - one Hour Several Hours - one Day
Different Time Regimes Require
Different Integration SolutionsExtreme Case
Integrating Renewables
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Improved Pricing
Demand Response
Gas Generation
Coal Cycling
Existing Hydro
Pumped Hydro
Gas Storage
Increasing RE Penetration
LowCost
HighCost
Relative order conceptual
IceHeat
Heating
Transportation
Demand Side Flexibility
Supply Side Flexibility
CSP
Markets
Thermal
Storage
New
Loads
Electricity
Storage
Electricity
Storage
Existing
Storage
RE
Curtailment
Thermal
Storage
Flexible
Generation
Flexibility Supply Curve
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Short-Term Vision for Power Grid Planning and Operations
~ minutes~ seconds~ seconds ~ minutes~ seconds~ seconds
~ hours < 1 hour < 1 hour
SCADA Parallel State
Estimation
Parallel Contingency
Analysis
Operator
Real-TimeMarket
Operation
Violations
Constrained solutions
~ seconds Time to ImplementationNow 5 yrs 10 yrs
Off-line Transient/VoltageStability Analysis
Ratings & Limitsseasonal
Normal operations• Improved asset utilization
• Enabled market opportunities • Anticipate emergencies
Emergency operations• Prevent/mitigate failures
faststatic
Expanded Resource and
Policy Planning
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Wind ResourceCharacterization
• Resource assessment• Mesoscale modeling• Forecasting - DOE/NOAA Project
Grid System Operations
• Analysis methods and tools• Mitigation strategies
–Forecasting application–Increasing system flexibility–Stochastic models–Grid stability
Grid System Planning
• Interconnection studies • System expansion studies• Planning assistance• Generator modeling
Technical Outreach•Operators•Planners•ISOs, RTOs•IEEE
•Regulators•Legislators•Universities•IEA
DOE Wind Integration R&D
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DOE National Laboratories
IN
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Solar Energy Grid Integration - PV
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• Inter-Agency Working Group to address weather-dependent and oceanic renewable energy resource characterization needs
• Inform national observations network development to meet renewable needs
• Addressing micrositing and array challenges to maximize energy production and reliability
• Investigate mesoscale atmospheric processes to support advanced forecasting methods
• Climate change assessment for impacts on future renewable energy resources
Resource Characterization Needs
DOE and NOAA expanding partnership to address these needs for weather-dependent and oceanic resources
DOE and NOAA expanding partnership to address these needs for weather-dependent and oceanic resources
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Objectives
Motivation
Enhancing Short Term Wind Energy Forecasting For Improved Utility Operations
1. Increased accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind forecasts
2. Determine resultant economic benefits to electric power system operations.
3. Inform efforts to define national-scale mesonet weather data systems needed to support wind energy forecasting.
Substantial savings in annual electric power system production costs can be achieved with improved accuracy of wind forecasts in the range of 0 to 6 hours ahead
DOE/NOAA Short Term (0-6hr ahead)Forecasting Project
800 km800 km
800
km80
0 km
Gov’tSupplied
Data
AdditionalData
Gov’t DataAssimilation
And Modeling
Gov’tOutput
Metric/BenefitAnalysis
RecipientOutput
Metric/BenefitAnalysis
Operational Application of
Improved Forecast
= Areas of Recipient Participation
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Short Term Forecasting Project
AWS
WindLogics• AWS Truepower Team – MESO, Inc.,
ERCOT (BA), Texas Tech U., Oklahoma U., NC State U., ICF Incorporated, NREL
• WindLogics Team – NextEra, South Dakota State U., MISO (BA), Itaska Technology, Campbell Scientific, NREL
• Schedule –– Target Observing – Now through 1/11– Field Survey – 1/11 – 3/11– Deployment – 3/11 – 3/12– Economic and Data Analysis – 3/11 – 8/12
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• Other Resource Characterization Projects– Resource Assessment– Complex Terrain Characterization– Inflow and Wake Observations– Advanced Forecasting Techniques (incorporation
into Ops)– Data Acquisition, Assimilation, Networks,
Archiving– Climatic Impacts of Very Large Wind Farms
• Performers– Government (DOE, NSF, NOAA)– Government Laboratories– Universities– Industry Consortiums (both public/private
funded)
Wind Resource Characterization Projects
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Integration Modeling and Analysis
Operational Strategies
Balancing Area Analysis
Storage Analysis
• Wind Plant System Design and Protection• Midwest/Great Plains RE Integration Support• Upgrade NWTC Research Turbines • WECC Variable Generation Subcommittee
Example projects for FY11
Grid Integration Activities
Grid System OperationsGrid System Operations
Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov20
• WWSIS and EWITS Phase 2 Studies• Concurrent Cooling Models• Generator Modeling and Validation • Renewable Energy Zone Support
Example projects for FY11
Integration Studies
Renewable Energy Zones
System Planning Support
Increasing Existing Transmission
System Capacity
Renewable Scenario Modeling
Grid Integration Activities
Grid System PlanningGrid System Planning
Wind and Water Power Program eere.energy.gov21
Solar Resource Assessment/Forecasting
• Resource assessment for historical and forecast periods– Bankable solar data sets– Quantifiable risk factors– Data uncertainty characteristics
• Forecasting– Sub-hourly – Ground based observations
(radiometers/Total Sky Imagers)– 1-6 hours – Cloud motion vectors from
satellites can be derived from NWP, NAM or WRF models
– 1-3 days – Model outputs from NDFD, RUC, etc.
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Wave Energy Converters• Wide variety of conversion
technologies• Floating or submerged• Near-shore or far out to sea
Current Energy Converters• Includes tidal, ocean current and in-
stream hydrokinetics• Typically employs turbine variants
MHK Technology Types
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MHK Resource Assessments
Existing Resource Assessments: • Very basic and incomplete; show moderate resource size
Program Supported Detailed Resource Assessments:•Tidal: Georgia Tech – Spring 2011 •Wave: EPRI and Virginia Tech – Spring 2011•Ocean Current: Georgia Tech – Fall 2012•Ocean Thermal: Lockheed Martin – Fall 2012•River Hydrokinetic: EPRI and U Alaska Fairbanks – Fall 2012
Limitations: • Technologies are at an early stage but advancing rapidly…determining under what conditions power generation is technically feasible can be difficult• Lack of data for extreme conditions, survivability
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Summary
• Administration energy, economic, and environmental goals driving expanded renewable energy use
• Variability in weather-dependent renewables require changes in planning and operating electric power systems
• Planning, design, and operations for high use of renewable energy requires expanded atmospheric and oceanic information to ensure reliability and minimize cost
• DOE partnering with NOAA and beginning broader weather enterprise collaboration to address renewable needs