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NOAA Space Environment Center
H J SingerNOAA Space Environment Center
SEC Center ReviewJuly 11, 2000Boulder, CO
Overview of Research and Development
Understanding the fundamental physical processes governing the regime from the solar surface, through the interplanetary medium, into the magnetospheric-ionospheric regions, and ending in Earth's upper atmosphere.
Applying our understanding to the development of space weather applications.
NOAA Space Environment Center
Outline
Science Themes: Solar, Interplanetary, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere/Thermosphere
New Research and Modeling
New and Improved Observations
Summary
Acknowledgements: Araujo-Pradere, Arge, Fuller-Rowell, Garcia, Hill, Onsager, Pizzo, Sahm, Smithtro, Viereck, and the work done by many other at SEC and in collaboration with SEC
NOAA Space Environment Center
THE DYNAMIC & COUPLED SUN-EARTH SYSTEMMajor Science Themes
Sun Coronal Mass Ejections
CME in the Solar Wind
Magnetosphere Ionosphere/Thermosphere
NOAA Space Environment Center
Space Weather Parameters and GoalsSpace Weather
DomainGoal
Specify and Forecast:
Solar coronal mass ejections
Occurrence, magnitude, duration, and magnetic field structure
Solar activity flares Occurrence, magnitude, and duration
Solar and galactic energetic particles
At satellite orbit, the temporal profile and spectral variation during an SPE event
Solar wind Solar wind density, velocity, magnetic field strength, and direction
Magnetospheric particles and fields
Global magnetic field, magnetospheric electrons and ions, and strength and location of field aligned current systems. High-latitude electric fields and electrojet current systems.
Geomagnetic disturbances
Geomagnetic indices and storm onset, intensity, and duration
Radiation belts Trapped ions and electrons from 1 to 12 Re
Ionosphere/Thermo Neutral and electron density, variability
Adapted from: NAS Radiation and ISS Report
NOAA Space Environment Center
Solar Wind Speed Forecasting
Input: Potential field source surfacemodel, Wang-Sheely expansion factors, Ground-based solar observations of photospheric magnetic field
Output: Solar wind speed at 1 AU; Sector structure
Arge and Pizzo, SEC
Lead time: 3 – 4 days
User: Models; Background for transients
NOAA Space Environment Center
Forecasting Large NonrecurrentGeomagnetic Storms
Input: L1 observed IMF
Output: hourly predictions of occurrence, duration, and strengthof geomagnetic storm
Lead time: few to more than 10 hoursUser: Models and those impacted by geomagnetic activity
Arge, Chen, Slinker, Pizzo
IMF Bz
Prediction Probability
Dst index
NOAA Space Environment Center
Geomagnetic Activity Kp Forecasting
Input: ACE solar wind velocity, B, Bz, and Costello Neural Net Output: Predicted Kp Index
Lead time: 1 – 2 hours
User: Models and those impacted by geomagnetic activity
Costello (Rice); Onsager, Sahm, Detman (SEC)
Verification
NOAA Space Environment Center
Relativistic (MeV) Electron Forecasting
Input: ACE solar wind velocity Baker et al. model (modified) Output: Predicted MeV electron flux
Lead time: 1-3 days
User: spacecraft operations
Smithtro (USAF/SEC), Onsager (SEC)
NOAA Space Environment Center
Day of year
Fil
tere
d a
p
Empirical IonosphericStorm-Time Correction Model
Input: 36 hour filtered ap, (basedon ap, global ionospheric foF2,Many years of storm-time intervals) Output: Ionospheric foF2 correction
Lead time: depends on ap lead time
User: HF communications correction for IRI users
Araujo-Pradere, Fuller-Rowell, Codrescu (SEC)
NOAA Space Environment Center
Data Assimilation in the Ionosphere
Data: COSMIC Constellation
Model: Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model
NOAA Space Environment Center
Solar Contribution to Climate Change
• First, an anthropogenic component is removed to get the blue curve.
– about 0.4o C warming since 1850
• The remaining temperature variability is compared to the solar variability
– about 0.2o C warming since 1850
• Note the remarkable correlation in the bottom plot and the two rapid warming trends (around 1930 and 1980) agree well with solar curve Detrended Temperature
Solar Forcing FunctionConclusion: The sun may be responsible for about 35% of the climate warming since 1850
Mende 2000
Mende and Stellmacher, 2000, to appear in ISSI-Proceedings of the 1999 Meeting in Bern (Private Communications)
NOAA Space Environment Center
Hard X-Ray Spectrometer Launched
Garcia and Kiplinger (SEC)
Purpose: To predict proton storms in the vicinity of Earth that are harmful to satellites and humans in space.
Launch: Mar. 12, 2000 0929 GMTOrbital Sciences Taurus (T5) Satellite Multi-spectral Thermal Imager (MTI) operated by Sandia National Laboratories for DOE built by Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.
Support: NOAA International Affairs Office and SEC, Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech-U.S S & T grant, USAF European OARD, NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group, DoD Space Test Program
NOAA Space Environment Center
Solar X-ray Imager (SXI)Launch on GOES M in summer 2001Ground Data System PDR 4/00At least one full solar image per minute.
–5 arc sec pixels, 512 x 512 pixel array.SXI will monitor:
–Coronal hole locations for geomagnetic storm predictions.
–Flare location for particle events.–Monitor for changes indicating coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
–Active regions beyond east limb for activity predictions.
–Active region complexity for flare prediction.
–Without SXI, we get only two numbers from XRS to represent solar x-ray activity.
Hill (SEC)
GOES 9 XRS and Yohkoh Image
NOAA Space Environment Center
EUV Importance: Thermospheric Effects on Operational Systems
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Alt
itu
de
(n
au
tic
al
mil
es
)
Year
200
260
320
Hubble altitude with scheduled reboosts
Science operations altitude
Solar Cycle 22 Solar Cycle 23 Solar Cycle 24
Distance below operational altitude
Hubble re-enters without reboost
Withbroe, Presentation at SEC Conference on Cycle 23 Predictions (Sept 1996)
Example: Hubble Altitude for a Large Solar Cycle 23
During the next solar max period the Hubble space telescope will...
• go below the operational altitude (green area)• prematurely reenter (blue lines)
without additional shuttle flights to reboost it to higher orbits
Example, Spacecraft such as the Hubble Space Telescope and Space Station will feel the effect of atmospheric drag in two ways:
Hubble
US
A
Japa
n
ESA
1. If density is high, the fluctuations in atmospheric drag will cause satellite pointing errors.This makes the Hubble Space Telescope unusable and would ruin microgravity experiments on Space Station
2. Long periods of increased drags could cause spacecraft to reenter prematurely unless expensive reboost operations are performed
EUV Measurents added to GOES NO/PQ
NOAA Space Environment Center
Models at SEC Nowcast and Forecast Medium-Energy Electron and Proton Fluxes in the Magnetosphere
GOES NO/PQ Under Development• Includes Improved Energetic Particle Measurements• 10’s to 100’s of keV Electrons and Protons• Provides for Improved Specification, Model Validation and Data Assimilation
NOAA Space Environment Center
IMAGE: Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration is a NASA Explorer Satellite
The IMAGE FUV instrument (Steven Mende PI)was built at and is managed by the Space Sciences Laboratory of the University of California at Berkeley.
Launched March 25, 2000
Real-time Data transmission
• Energetic Neutral Atom Imagers
• Far Ultraviolet Imager
• Extreme Ultraviolet Imager
• Radio Plasma Imager
Potential Ground Stations:
CRL (Japan), UC Berkeley, NOAA Ak,
Rutherford-Appleton, US Naval Academy
Onsager, Sahm, Vickroy NOAA/SEC
Latest FUV Image(simulated)
NOAA Space Environment Center
NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite
POES
Evans and Greer (SEC)
One day of NOAA –15 power input from electron and proton precipitation.
NOAA – 15 on lineSEM 2: more and wider range of energy channels50 eV – 20 KeV
Single pass showing particle flux used to determine statistical oval.
NOAA Space Environment Center
INTERDISCIPLINARY NSF’s CEDAR, GEM, and SHINE (involves SEC leadership) NOAA SEC Space Weather Week KDI’s, STC’s
SEC Research and DevelopmentCollaboration, Participation, and
Partnership
INTERAGENCY NASA’s Living With a Star (SEC participation on teams) National Space Weather Program (Committee on Space Weather; development of Implementation Plan) Community Coordinated Modeling Center (Steering committee) UPOS NOAA SEC Space Weather Week
INTERNATIONAL ISES Visiting Scientists NOAA SEC Space Weather Week
NOAA Space Environment Center
H J Singer NOAA Space Environment Center
Research and Development Leads to Improved Specification and
Forecasting
SEC Center ReviewJuly 11, 2000Boulder, CO