7/29/2019 NOAA Letter DHS Hurricane Modification STORMFURY

1/2

U N I T E D B T A T E B D E P A R T M E N T DF C O M M E R C ENationml Ds lanis and A trno -ph sri~ Adrninlatretlpn

-,.,. 1 OFFICE OF OCEANIC AN D ATMOSPHE RIC RESEAR CH

MEMORANDUM FOR: William LaskaProgram Manager, Department of Homeland SecurityFROM: Richard W. Spi~ad,h.D., CMarSciAssistant AdministratorSUBJECT: Response to Statement of Work-Hurricane Aerosol andMicrophysics ProgramThank you for the opportunity to review the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS)Statement of work for the Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP). Researchscientists and managers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) met in April to discuss researchcollaboration with the Department of Homeland Security @HS) on hurricane modification.OAR firmly agrees that hurricanes pose a significant risk to our nation's security through thecost of human life and economic property damage.While OAK recognizes that weather modification, in general, is occurring through the funding ofprivate enterprises, NOAA does not support research that entails efforts to modify hurricanes.NOAA, and its predecessor agency, once supported and conducted research into hurricanemodification through Project STORMFURY from 1962 to 1983. Project STORMFURY wasdiscontinued a s the result of: I) inconclusive scientific results, and 2) the inability to separatethe difference between what happens when a hurricane is modified by human intervention versusa hurricane's natural behavior. Since Project STORMFURY's end 26 years ago, NOAAscientists have gained substantial insight on the complicated and interconnected processes withinthe overall hurricane environment. Yet, it remains unclear if enough knowledge has been gainedto make any new modification attempts practicable.NOAA does welcome collaborative research efforts to understand the physical and dynamicalprocesses that operate within a hurricane. Such studies contribute to NOAA's missionrequirement to predict the track and intensity of these storms. This type of understanding is alsonecessary before weather modification efforts become viable. We have also enjoyed the supportof DHS for the Weather In-Situ Deployment Optimization Method (WISDOM) Project, directedtoward the crucial NOAA mission of improving hurricane track forecasts.OAR appreciates DHS's efforts in reaching out to NOAA to provide additional research supportservices. We will use the following principles in our collaborations:

1. Any collaboration with OAR and DHS should occur within NOAA's mission: "Tounderstand and predict changes in Ea rth's environment and conserve and m anagecoasral and marine resources to meet our Nation S conomic, social, a nd environmental

7/29/2019 NOAA Letter DHS Hurricane Modification STORMFURY

2/2

needs." NO AA 's research, conducted by programs within NOAA an d throughcollaborations outside NOA A, focuses on enhancing ou r understanding of environmentalphenomena. For hurricanes and other weather phenom ena, NOA A research also focuseson improving predictions.2. Any col labora tion wi th O AR a nd DHS should be consistent with NOAA's cur ren tstrategy. Responding to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Hurricane Intensity

Research Working Gr ou p recommendations, the National Science Board report:"Hurricane Warn ing:Th e Critical Need for a National Hur ricane Research Initiative",and the Office of the Federal Coordinator of M eteorological Services' (OFCM )"Interagency Strategic Plan for Tropical Cyclones - The Way Ahead", NOA A formedthe Hurricane Forecast Improvem ent Project (HFIP) in 2007. HFIP outlined a 10-yearproject designed to accelerate improvements in one to five day forec asts for hurricanetrack, intensity, storm surg e and to reduce forecast uncertainty. Beca use of importance toemergency managem ent officials, an emphasis was placed on forecasting rapid intensitychanges.3. Any col labora t ion wi th OA R an d DHS should leverage exist ing par tnership s andprocesses. NOA A, through HFIP, has partnered with the U.S. Nav y's Office of Naval

Research, the National Aeron autics and Space Adm inistration, the National ScienceFoundation, the M inerals Management Service, and the D epartment o f Energy to bettersupport the required research and development necessary t o im prove the operationalhurricane track and intensity forecasts. This formally established hurrican e allianceensures coordination acros s the broad spectrum of activities from ob servations to dataassimilation to modeling to basic research. Additionally, NO AA worked w ith the Officeof the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) through the W orking Group onTropical Cy clone Research (WG iTCR) to coordinate research efforts related to tropicalcyclones and to identify gaps in research efforts that may b e im portant to improvingprediction of tropical cyclones.Taking into consideration the above principles, OA R welcomes further research anddevelopment collaboration with DHS, and we look forward to any further discussions betweenNOAA and DHS experts on how we c an collaborate on m inimizing a hurricane's impact to ournation.