NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and

Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA)

Jin Huang

NOAA Office of Global Programs

November 6, 2003Puerto Vallarta, Mexico

NOAA ISIP Goal

• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate variations

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Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Seamless Suite of Forecasts

Integrated ISIP Program Structure

1. Model Development (High-end centers: EMC, GFDL, GMAO, NCAR)

2. Experimental Prediction (Incl. Multi-model Ens. Fcst System Development)

3. Applications and Products Development

4. Research – CPPA

CPPA Overview

• CPPA is a merged program from NOAA’s existing PACS and GAPP programs

• Rational for merging the two programs

- PACS and GAPP share common objective, but have different focus areas

- CPPA integrates the expertise in ocean, atmosphere and land from CLIVAR and GEWEX communities

CPPA Goal

• CPPA goal is to improve intraseasonal to interannual climate forecasts and to interpret the climate forecasts for better water resource management

CPPA Scientific Objectives

• Improving understanding and model simulation of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes through observations, data analysis, and modeling studies

• Determining the predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to interannual time scale for the Americas.

• Advancing the NOAA operational climate forecasts through a Core Project at NWS supported by the CPPA program.

• Providing decision support through interpretation of climate forecasts for water resource management applications.

CPPA Major Research ActivitiesEnhanced Observations and

Field Studies

Data Analysis

(Cronin) (Berbery)

CPPA Major Research ActivitiesModel Development

Dynamic Vegetation:• need validation data• need more modeling studies (current operational models don’t have interactive vegetation)

• Coupled land-atmosphere models

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere models

Z.Yang

CPPA NOAA Core Project…. a pathway from research to operations

• NCEP• NWS/OH

THEEMERGINGNCEPENSEMBLESEASONALPREDICTIONSYSTEMwith downscalingto NWS/OHDhydrology models(operational andexperimental).

SSTPREDICTION

GENERALCIRCULATION

LATERALB.C.

REGIONALCOUPLED

ATMOS-LANDMODEL

10 - 30 km

PRECIP, Ts,LAND-SFCFORCING

REGIONALUNCOUPLEDLAND-HYDRO

MODEL1-10 km

RUNOFFSNOWPACK

STREAMFLOWSOIL MOIST

GLOBALCOUPLED

ATMOS-LANDMODEL

30 - 100 km

GLOBALLAND4DDA

GLOBALATMOS4DDA

GLOBALOCEAN4DDA

REGIONALLAND4DDA

REGIONALATMOS4DDA

GLOBALCOUPLED

OCEAN-ATMOSLAND MODEL100 - 500 km

(after Schaake)

CPPA Major Research Activities

REGIONAL REANALYSIS(NCEP)

A SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING THESE FIELDSBEYOND 2002

High Resolution, Dynamically Consistent Historical NA Analysis for: 1) Diagnostics Studies2) Prediction Model Initialization and Validation.

NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution;3 Hourly Temporal Resolution;1979 through 2002.

(REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN)

CPPA Research Activities

• Observation and field campaigne.g., NAME, EPIC, SALLJEX

• Data Analysis• Process and predictability studies

-ocean, atmosphere, and land

• Modeling studies and model improvement•Coupled land-atmosphere models•Coupled ocean-atmosphere models

• Data Assimilation (land, ocean)• Regional Reanalysis• Water resource applications

CPPA Future Integrated Strategies

• Consolidate the common thrusts

e.g. warm season precipitation initiative, regional climate modeling, drought

• Improve program mapping

e.g., increasing the temporal and spatial coverage, advancing modeling of O-A-L coupled system, combining remote and local forcing

• Assemble climate process teams of observationists, model developers, diagnosticians to fully exploit existing data sets for evaluating model deficiencies, designing guiding plans for future campaigns

CPPA Implementation Timeline

• FY03 (Conceptual Phase)– NOAA’s ISIP formulated– PACS and GAPP science advisory bodies informed and engaged

• FY04 (Transition Year - Planning Phase)– Merger of PACS and GAPP initiated with joint budget and

management team– PACS and GAPP projects under FY04 AO reviewed and awarded– OGP develops NOAA CPPA implementation strategy document– Single umbrella CPPA AO issued for FY05

• FY05 (Program Launch)– CPPA officially established with proposal review and project awards– First NOAA CPPA Annual Report issued

NOAA/CPPA Programmatic Structure

Science and ImplementationPlans

AgencyImplementation

US CLIVARPan-America

GEWEXAmericasPrediction

Project

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CPPA-Hydro-GEWEC

-ATM-OCE

Funding Funding

Science Advisory Groups

CPPA and NAME

• NAME is the first field campaign supported by CPPA

– PACS and GAPP started the joint call for proposals for the Warm Season Precipitation Initiative in FY01

• The CPPA interest in NAME is to improve intraseasonal to interannual climate forecasts for the warm season

• CPPA will continue to support diagnostic and modeling studies in the Warm Season Precipitation Initiative after NAME