NOAA Council on Long-Term

Climate Monitoring (CLTCM)

Eighth Meeting in Chicago, Illinois, March 7-8 2002 The Council identified three strategic issues for

consideration by the SAB:

Re-visiting the climate observation system requirements discussed at the last Council meeting in Seattle

Prioritization of climate observations

Revised Terms of Reference (TOR) for the CLTCM

Request SAB to review and endorse ourrecommendations

The NOAA Council on Long-Term Climate Monitoring (CLTCM)

Terms of Reference

Purpose of the CLTCM:

Evaluate and prioritize requirements for existing and planned climate-related observing systems including data processing and data management related to trends and variability

Consider practices/systems that span the range of atmospheric, oceanographic, terrestrial, and cryospheric variables, with attention to issues of accuracy, biases, and errors:

- forcings (solar, GHGs, aerosols...) - feedbacks (sea ice, land cover, snow cover, water vapor, clouds…)

- responses (atmospheric temperature, precipitation, ecosystems…)- impacts (ecosystems, forest fires, drought…)

Report findings to NOAA management, i.e., provide advice and recommendations for observing systems improvements and requirements

Terms of ReferenceProposed Changes

Reporting Responsibilities to Include:

(1) NOAA Science Advisory Board – parent body, formal reporting and approval

(2) NESDIS Board of Directors (3) NOAA Climate Observations and Services Board (4) NOAA Climate & Global Change Panel

More explicit involvement in recommending science priorities for data processing and archive: (1) Provide information and advice to NOAA/NESDIS Board of Directors

(2) More interaction with other agencies (e.g., NASA/NSF/UCAR/NCAR, DOE, USGS) regarding data management issues

NOAAScience

AdvisoryBoard

Council onLong-Term

ClimateMonitoring

NESDISBoard

ofDirectors

NOAAClimate

and Global Change Panel

ClimateObservationand Services

Board

formal reporting requirement and approval

provide Council reports as advice

Prioritizing Climate Observing System Requirements

A Continuing Effort that Builds on CCRI Observing Systems Initiative as Discussed at CLTCM, Seattle, July 2001

Critical Needs Continue to be:

Functional Capability to Provide Adequate Oversight and Management of the End-to-End System

Enhancement of Current GCOS Capabilities (i.e., fix what’s broken)

Introduction of New Foci (i.e., fill existing holes)

Achievement of System Balance (i.e.,deal with the whole climate system, not just the atmosphere)

Climate Observations Prioritized by Issue

?Starting point: Council informed about a number of NOAA Line Office observing system component requirements

Council prioritized by issue:

How is climate varying and changing?

What are the causes?

How well can we predict and project the future?

What are the consequences and impacts?

Definition of Terms

Time to Pay-Off – the time required for an impact to be realized, i.e., upgrading an existing system or implementing a new system

Increasing Feasibility

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Time to Pay-Off{ Feasibility – readiness to implement the observing system component considering technical aspects, resource requirements, etc.

Impact – potential for reducing uncertainties related to documenting, understanding, predicting, and assessing impacts of climate variability and change

How is climate varying and changing?NOTES:A = Satellite Calibration ValidationB = Operationalizing climate reference data setsC = Climate Reference Network full implementationD = 3-Dimensional Ocean Observing System – e.g., ARGOE = Radiosonde replacement with continuity of climate record1 = No cost Web Access (free data on-line)2 = Climate Reprocessing (Pathfinder Data)3 = Upper Air Network to measure upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric H2O vapor at more sites (GUAN related)GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft)1A = Increased ocean observing capabilities for developing countries in Southern Hemisphere1B = Small Networks includes upgrades of surface radiation network in U.S.GSN = GCOS Surface NetworkGUAN = GCOS Upper Air Network GAW = Global Atmospheric WatchCLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship SystemTransition Paleo Data Management to Operations – freeing up funds for more Paleo research

Increasing Feasibility

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Time to Pay-Off{

Reanalysis

What are the causes of climate change and variability?

NOTES:

Tropospheric Aerosols = aerosols direct & indirect (including clouds)Solar = solar spectral irradianceLand = land cover and land use

Increasing Feasibility

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Time to Pay-Off{

How well can we predict and project the future?

NOTES:

GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft) MOC = Meridional Overturning CirculationData Archive = Includes access and science stewardshipCLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship SystemModel Archive = Making weather and climate model output readily availableOcean OSSE = Ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments

Increasing Feasibility

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Model Archive

Time to Pay-Off{

What are the consequences and impacts?

Increasing Feasibility

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NOTES:OP Climate Ref. Data = Operationalize Climate Reference Data SetsNo Cost Web Access = Free data on lineAccel. SFC Networks = Accelerate surface network implementation, modernization, and improvement. CRN, ASOS, COOPsImproved Products = Better use of existing data to improve data products, e.g., drought, vegetation, fire, surface climate, etc.Dev. Country High Altitudes =Improved Climate Monitoring at high altitudes and in developing countries, e.g., Global Surface Network

Time to Pay-Off{

Observing systems included in more than one science question

Increasing Feasibility

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NOTES

GUPS = Global Unified Profiling System (HAWK Aircraft)Data Archive = Includes access and science stewardshipCLASS = Comprehensive Large Array Stewardship System GUAN = GCOS Upper Air Network to measure upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric H2O vapor at more sitesNo Cost Web Access = Free data on lineOP Climate Ref. Data = Operationalize Climate Reference Data SetsCRN = Climate Reference Network full implementation3-Dimensional Ocean Observing System – e.g., ARGO

Time to Pay-Off{

These 2 itemsappear twice

Cost requirements for a comprehensive Multi-Agency Climate Observing System

(Investment above current funding)Activity Year 1 Year 3 Year 5

Coordinating/Oversight Capability $ 80M $100M $120M

In situ atmospheric observing system components $ 40M $ 50M $100M

In situ ocean & sea ice observing system components $ 40M $ 60M $150M

in situ terrestrial observing system components $ 30M $ 50M $100M

Additional observations from satellite $ 20M $ 40M $100M

Satellite launch, orbital, & communication issues $ 50M $200M

Paleoclimate observing system components $ 10M $ 20M $ 20M

Data processing, assimilation into models $ 30M $ 45M $ 90M

Data and information management $ 20M $ 35M $ 70M ______________________________________________________________

Total $270M $450M $950M