No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL...

40
1 Roadshow Presentation

Transcript of No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL...

Page 1: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

1

Roadshow Presentation

Page 2: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

2

The material that follows is a presentation of general background

information about the Bank’s activities current at the date of the

presentation, 12 March 2004. It is information given in summary form

and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon

as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into

account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any

particular investor. These should be considered, with or without

professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

Speaker’s notes for this presentation are attached below each slide

(download from www.commbank.com.au/shareholder).

To access them, you may need to save the slides in PowerPoint and

view/print in “notes view.”

Disclaimer

Page 3: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Agenda

Environment

Performance

Outlook

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Environment

Page 5: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

5

Environment

Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA

AustraliaUnited States

OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES

0

2

4

6

8

J ul-92 J ul-94 J ul-96 J ul-98 J ul-00 J ul-02 J ul-04

0

2

4

6

8

% %

Aus tra lia

US

0

3

6

Average

growth rate

Average

inflation

rate

Reduction

in

unemploy-

ment rate

Increase in

current

account

deficit

Reduction

in budget

deficit

Average

productivity

growth

%

AUSTRALIA: HOW WE COMPARE

(the last 10 years)

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Credit growth expected to moderate

Page 7: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

7

Ageing population driving productivity

challenge

% GDP per

capita growth

Population

Participation

Productivity

Source: Intergenerational Report

2.25

1.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Past Future

Page 8: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

8

We will grow through service transformation

Strong business mix

Extensive distribution

footprint

Large customer base

Leading brand

Service transformation

Superior EPS

growth

Competitive

superiority

Page 9: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Performance

Half Year Results Overview

Page 10: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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31/12/03$m

31/12/02$m

Change

Statutory NPAT 1,243 622 100%

Goodwill amortisationAppraisal value movement

162(165)

160426

Cash NPAT 1,240 1,208 3%

Which new BankStrategic initiatives - 2002ESAP - 2002Shareholder investment returns

346--

(99)

-39198

Underlying Cash NPAT 1,487 1,274 17%

A good result: 17% growth in

underlying cash profit

Page 11: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

Jun-02 Banking Insurance Funds Underlying

Dec 02

Investment

Returns

Which new

Bank

Dec-03

Banking and Insurance strong, Funds

Management rebound

Cash Profit

Dec-03

1,274

Banking

158

Funds

Management

1

Insurance

54

Investment

Returns

99

1,240

Underlying

Profit Dec -02

Underlying Growth of 17%

Incremental

Which new

Bank

(346)

Underlying

Profit Dec-03

1,487

$m

Page 12: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Key shareholder ratios

31/12/03

96 cents

12.3%

79 cents

82.9%

31/12/02

95 cents

12.4%

69 cents

72.7%

Change

1%

0%

14%

14%

Earnings Per Share

Return on Equity

Dividends Per Share

Payout Ratio

Shareholder Ratios*

* Based on Cash NPAT

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Another Record Dividend

•Interim dividend of

79 cps, up 14% on

pcp

•Payout ratio of 82.9%

reflecting Which new

Bank expenditure

impact in 2004

42

60

8290

102104

115

130136

150 154

2024

36 3845 46 49

58 6168 69

79

22

36

4652

57 58

66

72

8285

75

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Cen

ts

First Half Second Half

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Banking

Performance driven by growth in home lending and sound asset quality

In summary:

14% underlying profit growth

9% growth in banking income

4.6% annualised productivity improvement since June 2003

9% growth in lending assets since June 2003

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27 29 28 30

17

15 14 16 17

39 40 37 36

19 17 19

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

AAA/AA* A BBB Other^

Continued improvement in portfolio

quality

Dec 02 Dec 03Jun 03

64%

investment

grade

A High Quality Portfolio

Well Diversified Portfolio by IndustryTop 20 Exposures to Corporates (Committed)

(Top 20 exposures are 3.5% of total committed

exposures of $245 billion)

Jun 02BBB

A+

BBB

BBB+

A

A+

BBB-

AA-

BBB

A+

A+

A-

BBB

A+

AA+

BBB

A-

A-

300 400 500 600 700

A-

Other

Commercial

Government

Agriculture

Finance

Construction Leasing

Energy Telcos

Technology

Aviation

AAA

S&

P R

ati

ng

or

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

$M

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Underlying Banking Cost to Income ratio

has improved by over 4% annualised

%

June 2006

Target:Under

4.6% annualised productivity

improvement

48

54.2 54.0

52.251.9

50.7

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Dec-

01

Jun-

02

Dec-

02

Jun-

03

Dec-

03

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Funds Management

Since June 2003, underlying profit rebound of 17% to December 2002 levels

Income to average FUM steady at 119 basis points

9.0% annualised productivity improvement since June 2003

FirstChoice continues to grow rapidly

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0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

Underlying profit rebounds to

December 2002 levels

50

100

150

200

50

100

150

200

Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03Underlying

Profit Dec-02

$m $m

Underlying

Profit Dec-03

Cash Profit

Dec-03

125

Net

Operating

Income

9

Operating

Expense

2

OEI

(1)

Tax(

9)

S’holder

Invest

Returns

10

Incremental

Which new

Bank

(19)

After Tax Profit: 17%

underlying growth

in six months

126117

125

108

126

Page 19: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Since June, FUM has grown by 7% and

productivity has improved by 9% annualised

% $bn

Un

de

rlyin

g E

xp

en

se

s/A

ve

rag

e F

UM

(%

)

Ave

rag

e F

UM

($b

n)

Under

FY06

Target

9.0% annualised productivity improvement

0.75

0.840.880.86

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03

60

70

80

90

100

110

Average FUM Underlying Expenses/Average FUM

Page 20: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Insurance

Fourfold increase in underlying net profit after tax to $67m

Strong improvement in shareholder investment returns

9.2% annualised productivity improvement since June 2003

Continued growth in annual premiums

Positive experience profit for two consecutive halves

Page 21: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Insurance result reflects improved operating

margins and strong investment returns

13

8

11

35

67

89 153

>400% increase from underlying business

$m

(3)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

U nderlying

Pro fit D ec-

02

As ia Aus tra lia N Z U nderlying

Pro fit D ec-

03

S 'ho lde r

Inves t

R e tu rns

Wh ich new

Bank

C as h Pro fit

D ec-03

Page 22: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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% $m

Op

era

tin

g E

xp

en

se

s/

Ave

rag

e In

forc

e P

rem

ium

s (

%) A

ve

rag

e In

forc

e P

rem

ium

s ($

m)

Under

FY06

Target

Since June, productivity has improved by

9.2% annualised

9.2% annualised productivity improvement

42

52.847.7

45.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Average Inforce Premiums

Operating Expense/Average Inforce Premiums

Page 23: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Capital Management strategy

Creating capital flexibility

Executed initiatives

Tier 1 Hybrid US$550m (A$832m)

PERLS II $750m

Proposed initiatives

Off-market share buy-back $450m - $550m

Share Purchase Plan and Share Sale Facility (executed following the

share buy-back)

Page 24: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Page 25: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Simple processes

‘To excel in customer service’

Customer service

via

Engaged peopleSupported

byThrough

Service transformation

Service/Sales

Effectiveness

IT Enablers

Distribution Efficiency

Product

Performance Culture Support

Process/product

IT Efficiency

Purchasing

(4)

(2)

(3)

(2)

(1) (1)

(3)

(2)

(2)

( ) = Number of workstreams

Page 26: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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In September 2003, we set out the expected

financial impact and outcomes of the program

Over the next three years we will:

Redirect the normal project spend

of $600m

Spend an additional $620m

Invest a further $260m in our

branch network

Over the next three years this will result in:

Cash EPS growth exceeding 10% CAGR

4-6% CAGR productivity improvements

Profitable market share growth across

major product lines

Increases in dividends per share each year

Subject to current market conditions continuing

Page 27: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Actual half year to31/12/03

$m

Full Year EstimatedFinancial Impact

$mIncremental Which new Bank expense after tax:

Investment Spend for the period (gross)

- Investment Capitalised

+ Provision for Future Costs

+ Expensing of previously capitalised software

= Gross Which new Bank expense

- Normal project spend net of capitalisation

= Incremental Which new Bank expense before tax

- Tax effect

Incremental Which new Bank expense after tax

179

(45)

200

210

544

(50)

494

(148)

346

660

(180)

210

215

905

(200)

705

(205)

500

Which new Bank Expenditure to Date

*

*As per Which new Bank announcement, September 2003

Page 28: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Themes 1H04 Actual($m)

2H04 Estimate($m)

FY04 Estimate($m)

Customers 60 210 270

Processes 100 180 280

People 5 5 10

165 395 560

BranchRefurbishment

14 86 100

Total 179 481 660

Investment spend is in line with

expectations

Page 29: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Themes 1H04 Actual($m)

2H04 Estimate($m)

FY04 Estimate($m)

Customers 58 87 145

Processes 5 50 55

People - - -

Total 63 137 200

Benefits are emerging

Page 30: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Service and Sales management

Transforming the way we serve customers

Realising full potential of customer serving staff

Improving service & sales skills and effectiveness

Applicable to everyone

Page 31: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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9 9 9 9 1 0 0

1 0 9

1 1 7 1 1 8 1 1 9 1 2 1

Service and Sales - early results

National benchmark

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 6

Product sales per FTE

Week 5 Week 7 Week 8

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 6

Cross-sell ratio

Week 5 Week 7 Week 8

Benchmark: 100

Benchmark: 100

1 0 7

1 2 51 3 3

1 4 8 1 4 4

1 5 61 6 3

1 7 4

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CommSee - Service Excellence Everyday

Bank-wide customer management system

Provides single view of customer

Starting in Tasmania

Improving service for 250,000 customers

Page 33: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Conditional home loan approvals on

the spot

%Applications

Home loans - on the spot decisioning

Time

58 58

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03

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Performance culture

Cultural diagnostic completed

Program implementation next half

Leading from the front

Staff involvement

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Which new Bank summary

Early days, but confident we are on right track

Evidence of earnings and productivity impact emerging

Bank’s leadership is fully committed to successful

implementation

Early adoption of cultural change by staff

Next progress update mid-year

Page 36: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

36

Outlook

Page 37: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Outlook - Economy

Global

Continued strong growth short term

Medium-term structural issues remain

Domestic

Influence factors to remain positive on balance for

1H04

Subsequent period open to number of potential

influences

Credit growth expected to slow down due to home

loan contraction

Page 38: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Outlook - Bank

Earnings

Economic momentum to support solid growth for full year

Growth in cash EPS exceeding 10% CAGR over three

years till 30 June 2006

Productivity

Productivity improvement of 4-6% CAGR over a three

years till 30 June 2006

Dividend

Which new Bank initiative expenses added back to

determine 2004 DPS

Pattern of dividend increase continues uninterrupted

Page 39: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Summary

Good result: underlying profit growth of 17%

Another record dividend

Productivity improvements in all businesses

Capital strengthening, buy-back, share purchase plan in

place

Which new Bank underway and meeting expectations

Full year outlook positive

Confidence in longer term growth objectives

Page 40: No Slide Title · 5 Environment Source: RBA, OECD. Source: RBA United States Australia OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES 0 2 4 6 8 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04

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Roadshow Presentation