No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)
-
Upload
mark-so -
Category
Technology
-
view
143 -
download
1
Transcript of No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)
![Page 1: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
![Page 2: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
#NoEstimatesThe What, Why & How
Mark So Daniel Prager @agilejitsu
The #NoEstimates Game
![Page 3: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
Common Perceptions of Estimates?
![Page 4: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
The problems with estimates?Solidifies ignorancePredicting something when we know the least about it
Raises unrealistic expectationsCreates expectation that we will deliver to the estimates
Wastes capacityWhen estimates are wrong – it delivers no real business value
Reduces trustThey can lead to mistrust when expectations are not met
![Page 5: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
FACTOnly 12% of projects delivered on time
or on budget Source: Chaos report 2014
![Page 6: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
Why are we still doing estimates?• The need to obtain funding• Set release dates• Understand resourcing requirements• Align other business functions, e.g.
• Marketing• Training
• Establish the ‘how much scope can I fit into X amount time for Y amount of $’ equation
![Page 7: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
We are not alone • #NoEstimates is a movement that
explores alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development.
• That is, ways to make decisions with “NoEstimates”.
• Twitter movement initially started by Woody Zuill, Neil Killick & Vasco Durate
![Page 8: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
think sharp
The #NoEstimates Game
• http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html
• http://skillfire.co/project-forecaster/ Credit: Adrian Fittolani
![Page 9: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
What can we learn from #NoEstimates?
• Uncertainty is part of life for project delivery• You cannot ignore it
• Incorporate uncertainties into your planning• Use data gathered from previous experience
• Much of the time spent estimating is better spent on actually ‘doing’ the work• Generate learnings, validate and adjust predictions
![Page 10: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
So how do we actually do that?• Use pilot projects to discover the unknown• Time box effort
• Slice work into smaller pieces (~ few days per story? )• Seed funding to deliver small chunks of working product
• Build, measure & learn• Capture cycle time and use modelling to
forecast schedules
![Page 11: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
![Page 12: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
Source & Inspirations• http://scrumage.com/blog/2015/09/agile-project-forecasting-the-monte-carlo-method/ • https://neilkillick.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/noestimates-is-neither-the-destination-nor-the-
journey/ • http://agile-jitsu.blogspot.com.au/2016/04/the-noestimates-game.html • http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2016/05/how-to-make-a-decision-in-the-presence-
of-uncertainty.html• http://scrumandkanban.co.uk/no-estimates/• http://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/• https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white-papers/chaos-report.pdf
![Page 13: No estimates the what why & how (LastConf 2016)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081520/58f357fa1a28ab642b8b45d7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
think sharp elabor8
Thank You