NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy...

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NMPF Town Hall Tuesday, October 27, 2015 Orlando, Florida

Transcript of NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy...

Page 1: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town HallTuesday, October 27, 2015

Orlando, Florida

Page 2: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall Meeting

Christopher GalenSenior VP, Communications

Page 3: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall MeetingEconomic Outlook FARM Program

Margin Protection Program Drug Residues

Cooperatives Working Together Environment

Trade Policy REAL Seal

Top Legislative Issues

BREAK

Page 4: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Opening RemarksNMPF ChairmanRandy MooneyRogersville, Missouri

Page 5: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Cooperative MilkProducers Association

Inc.Mid-West

Dairymen’s Company

Scioto Milk Producers Cooperative

United Dairymen of Arizona

Oneida-Madison MilkProducers Coop

Cortland Bulk MilkProducers Coop

Page 6: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF 2015 Board of DirectorsNeal Rea Greg Wickham Mark Wesen

Steve Schlangen John Wilson Jim Werkhoven

Sheryl Meshke Scot Meyer Tony Graves

Jimmy Kerr Mike Anderson Tom Pittman

Bill Beeman David Cooper Brad Bouma

Brian Hardy Clint Fall Mike McCloskey

Jerrel Heatwole Michael Doyle Joe Wright

Neil Hoff David Scheevel Ralph McNall

Jackie Klippenstein Peter Janzen Pat Schroeder

Chris Kraft Pete Kappelman Keith Murfield

George Mertens Cornell Kasbergen Larry Webster

Randy Mooney Tom Wakefield

Doug Nuttelman Jim Baird

Jeff Raney Jay Bryant

George Rohrer Ken Nobis

Dan Senestraro Dennis Tonak

Rick Smith Adrian Boer

Page 7: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Officers ChairmanRandy Mooney

Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.

First Vice ChairmanKen NobisMichigan Milk Producers Association

Second Vice ChairmanAdrian BoerNorthwest Dairy Association

Third Vice ChairmanMike McCloskeySelect Milk Producers, Inc.

SecretaryKeith MurfieldUnited Dairymen of Arizona

Assistant SecretaryDoug NuttelmanDairy Farmers of America, Inc.

TreasurerPete KappelmanLand O’Lakes, Inc.

Assistant TreasurerNeal ReaAgri-Mark, Inc.

Page 8: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Staff• Jim Mulhern – President & CEO

• Tom Balmer – Executive Vice President

• Ryan Bennett – Director, Government Relations

• Madelyn Berner – Communications Coordinator

• Beth Briczinski – Vice President, Dairy Foods & Nutrition

• Jaime Castaneda – Senior VP, Strategic Initiatives & Trade Policy

• Anne Chamblee – General Office Assistant

• Clay Detlefsen – Senior VP, Regulatory & Environmental Affairs

• Chris Galen – Senior VP, Communications

• Khadija Gibson-White – Program Assistant, CWT

• John Hollay – Vice President, Government Relations

• Carrie Hughes – Executive Assistant

Page 9: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Staff• Jamie Jonker – Vice President, Sustainability & Scientific Affairs

• Louise Kamali – Senior Director, Meetings & Office Services

• Emma Kenton – Receptionist

• Emily Meredith – Vice President, Animal Care

• Anuja Miner – Vice President, Membership Services

• Gail Mobley – Senior Director, Finance & Administration

• Shawna Morris – Vice President, Trade Policy

• John Newton – Senior Director, Economic Research

• Peter Vitaliano – Vice President, Economic Policy & Market Research

• Bobby Yi – Director, Information Technology

Page 10: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

This Year’s List of Tasks for NMPF• Raw milk initiatives at federal and state level

• National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS)

• State regulations on drug residue testing

• Food additives used in dairy products

• Sanitizer residues in milk and dairy products

• Testing for chemical residue contaminants in raw milk

• CVM Drug Residue Milk Sampling Survey

• Appendix N drug residue testing

• Product Recalls

• EU chemical residue audit

• Raw milk cheese risk profile and assessment

• FDA risk ranking report

• Listeria in dairy products

• Aflatoxin testing

• Food allergens study

• FSMA/Preventive Controls for Animal Feed

• FSMA/Preventive Controls for Human Food

• FSMA/Food Defense/Intentional Adulteration

• FSMA/Sanitary Transportation of Food

• FSMA/Alignment of the PMO with FSMA

• Traceability

• Glyphosate in milk

• GMO use

• Product labeling

• Product formulation

• China quality assurance

• National organic program

• Organic checkoff

• Dairy Crisis Management Team

• Foot and Mouth Disease

• Bovine Leukosis Virus

• Biosecurity

• Johne’s Disease control and prevention

• Bovine Tuberculosis eradication program

• Brucellosis eradication program

• Secure milk supply

• U.S. Animal Health Association

• World Organization for Animal Health General Sessions

• Meat imports from Argentina and Brazil

• US-Canada Animal Disease Regionalization

• Food/Agriculture Sector Coordinating Council Leadership

• Chemical terrorism risk assessment

• Biological terrorism risk assessment

• Threat agent detection technologies

• National infrastructure protection plan

• National Intelligence Trade Association Partners Group

• 2015 Dietary Guidelines for Americans

• Front of pack labeling

• Revisions to the nutrition facts panel

• Revisions to serving sizes of foods

• Added sugars declaration

• Sodium reduction initiatives

• Modification of the 50-gram rule

• Nutrition labeling for chain restaurants

• National School Meals programs

• Competitive foods in schools

• Child and Adult Care Food Program (CACFP) standards

• WIC and SNAP nutrition standards

• Trans-fats and Partially Hydrogenated Oils

• Food marketing guidelines for children

• Non-nutritive sweeteners

• Flavored milk in schools

• Sweetened beverage taxes

• Standards of identity for dairy products

• USDA Export Certificates for somatic cells

• International Standards for processed cheese, dairy permeate powders, mozzarella

• International dairy animal welfare standards

• ISO dairy welfare technical specifications

• Codex Alimentarius food safety standards

• FARM Program marketing

• Supervision of FARM Technical Writing Group

• Manage FARM Animal Care Database

• FARM Program Train-the-trainer & evaluator trainings

• Food chain outreach on animal care

• Innovation Center Animal Care Committee

• Industry crisis drills on animal care

• Newtrient LLC

• Photovoltaic & thermal solar technology

• Anaerobic digester technologies

• Nutrient recovery technologies

• Water quality trading

• Carbon credit trading

• USDA grants and loans

• Pennsylvania water quality trading

• Multi-state utility creation

• NAICS code for anaerobic digesters

• Gasification

• Fertilizers

• Innovation Center Sustainability Operating Committee

• Chesapeake Bay water quality

• USDA Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR)

• Biogas opportunities

• Waste to energy

• Waters of the United States

• Interpretive rule for Clean Water Act

• Particulate Matter 2.5

• National Air Emissions Monitoring Study

• Spill Prevention Control and Counter Measure

• Activists lawsuits over air emissions

• MOU with National Association of Clean Water Agencies

• White House forum on antibiotic stewardship

• Veterinary feed directive

• FDA Guidance for Industry #209 and #212

• On-Farm antibiotic use data collection

• FARM Residue Avoidance Manual

• National Action Plan for Combating Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria

• International Dairy Federation activities

• U.S. Farmers and Ranchers Alliance

• Animal Agriculture Alliance

• Cooperatives Working Together

• American Butter Institute

• National Ice Cream Mix Association

• Consortium for Common Food Names

• Monthly Dairy Market Report

• Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights

• U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan

• Monitoring the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

• Chicago Mercantile Exchange butter standards

• Immigration reform legislation

• Immigration study of dairy farms

• ICE intervention

• Border Patrol & enforcement

• Truck Weight Limits

• SNAP Choice Coalition

• LGM Appropriations

• MPP improvements at USDA

• MPP education

• Farm Bill implementation

• Trans Pacific Partnership

• TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

• China Tariffs

• China regulatory issues

• Geographic Indications

• Russia dairy ban

• India trade barriers

• Trade with Mexico

• Trade with Canada

• Colombia plant registration

• FTA compliance with Korea, Central America

• COOL retaliation threat

• EU cloning regulations

• World Trade Organization

• Trade Promotion Authority

Page 11: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

What about the Future?

Page 12: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

What about the Future?

Page 13: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Opening RemarksNMPF ChairmanRandy MooneyRogersville, Missouri

Page 14: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Economic Outlook

Peter VitalianoVP, Economic Policy & Market Research

Page 15: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

5.1%4.5%

5.7%5.9%6.5%6.7%

7.3%6.7%

7.4%

10.7%11.5%

12.6%12.6%13.5%

12.0%

16.1%16.8%16.8%

19.4%19.2%18.3%

3.0%

1.9%2.1%1.9%1.4%1.7%2.0%1.8%1.9%2.2%1.9%1.9%

3.2%

4.8%

2.9%

4.7%5.0%4.7%

6.4%6.3%

4.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Milk

Sol

ids,

% o

f U.S

. Pro

duct

ion

2015: January - August

U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, 1995-2015td% of skim solids% of milkfat

Page 16: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$1.48

$1.19

$1.58

$0.38

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

Butter NFDM Cheese Whey

U.S. Dairy Product Price Averages

Jan 2002 - June 2014

Page 17: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$1.48

$1.19

$1.58

$0.38

$2.07

$1.17

$1.83

$0.52

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

Butter NFDM Cheese Whey

U.S. Dairy Product Price Averages

Jan 2002 - June 2014 July 2014 - Sept 2015

Page 18: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$1.48

$1.19

$1.58

$0.38

$2.07

$1.17

$1.83

$0.52

$2.13

$0.79

$1.72

$0.32

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

Butter NFDM Cheese Whey

U.S. Dairy Product Price Averages

Jan 2002 - June 2014 July 2014 - Sept 2015 July 2015 - Sept 2015

Page 19: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CREDIT SUISSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Fat: The New Health ParadigmSeptember 2015

Page 20: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Fat: The New Health Paradigm• Natural unprocessed fats are healthy and key to the evolution

of a society that focuses on developing healthy individuals, not just treating those who are sick. … Welcome to the new world of fat

• Saturated fat has not been a driver of obesity … the most likely culprit … is carbohydrates

• … the intake of saturated fat (butter, palm and coconut oil and lard) poses no risk to our health and particularly to the heart

Page 21: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Fat: The New Health Paradigm• Globally, we expect fat to grow from the current 26% of

calorie intake to 31% by 2030, with saturated fat growing the fastest and going from 9.4% of total energy intake to 13%. We expect saturated fat to grow at 2% a year versus a historical rate of 0.6% a year

• … fat consumption in the U.S. will expand from the current 33% to 38% of total energy intake

Page 22: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Fat: The New Health Paradigm• Among foods, the main winners are likely to be eggs, milk

and dairy products, and nuts, with annual rates of growth (globally) around 2.5 - 4%

• On the dairy front, we expect butter and cheese to continue to grow at a fast pace … Milk and milk-related products should grow by … 2.5% a year. Butter should continue to replace margarine. Medical research shows that full-fat dairy is either beneficial or neutral in terms of CVD risk

Page 23: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring
Page 24: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$17.94 $17.80 $17.75 $17.79 $17.84

$18.28

$18.66

$19.11

$19.66$19.93 $19.94

$19.14

$17.60

$16.80$16.60 $16.50

$16.70$16.90

$16.60 $16.70

$17.30$17.60

$17.40

$16.80

Based on CME Group futures settlement

prices, October 20, 2015

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Dol

lars

per

cw

t. at

ave

rage

test

U.S. All-Milk Price, 2015, Actual & Forecast

2007-2014 Average 2015 Actual 2015 forecast

Page 25: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

U.S. Pricing Structure Considerations

Page 26: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

• U.S. is at disadvantage compared with:

– EU dairy companies’ export-focused pricing mechanisms

– Fonterra’s annual price pooling system

• U.S. FMMO classified pricing helps farmers’ prices, but also impacts export pricing flexibility for butter and cheese

U.S. Pricing Structure Considerations

Page 27: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT is only tool that can help level the export playing field in the face of these structural challenges

U.S. Pricing Advantage is CWT

Page 28: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT Exports Make a Difference

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.6020

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

Producer Price Impact $/cwt.

$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200

Producer Income Mil. $

Total Producer Income Impact since 2004$5.3 Billion

Page 29: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

MPP UpdateJaime CastanedaSenior VP, Strategic Initiatives & Trade Policy

John NewtonSr. Director, Economic Research

Page 30: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Heard in the Barn…• 2015 milk prices are catastrophically low

• MILC would have worked better than MPP

• Dairy Market Stabilization Program would have triggered

• MPP doesn’t reflect regional milk & feed prices

Page 31: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$/cw

t.

U.S. ALL-MILK PRICE5-YEAR AVERAGE

The Reality: Milk Prices Have Fallen From Record Highs

USDA ALL-MILK PRICE

Source: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices

2015 ALL-MILK PRICE Slightly Lower Than 5-Year Average Price (-15%)

Page 32: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$3020

08

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

$/cw

t

Milk Price

MILC Trigger Price

MILC Payments

Forecast

The Reality: MILC Would Not Have Triggered in 2015

MILK INCOME LOSS CONTRACT

Source: USDA NASS and author’s calculations

MILC PAYMENTSDespite milk prices

declining by 31% from 2014, MILC would not

have triggered in 2015.

$0MILC Would Not Have Triggered

IN MILC BENEFITS

Page 33: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

The Reality: Dairy Market Stabilization Program Would Not Have Triggered

Source: USDA AMS, FSA, AMS and author’s calculations

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

2014 2015

$/cw

t.

MPP-DAIRY MARGIN, 2014 to 2015ytd

Margins Remain $1.50/cwt Above

Proposed DMSP Trigger Levels

DMSP Trigger: Below $6 for Two Months, or Below $4 for One Month

DMSP $6DMSP $4

Page 34: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$0

$5

$10

$15

$2020

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$/cw

t.

MPP TWO-MONTH MARGINMPP TRIGGER

$0.00

$0.50

$0.00 $0.30

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

JAN

-FE

B

MAR

-AP

R

MAY

-JU

N

JUL-

AUG

$/cw

t

The Reality: MPP-Dairy Operating As Intended

MPP-DAIRY MARGIN

Source: USDA Farm Service Agency. Author’s calculations do not include sequestration

2015 MARGINS At Historical Average

Levels

$7

$8

$9

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

$/cw

t.

2015 MPP-DAIRY

MPP-DairyPayments to holders

of $8 Coverage

MPP $8 Trigger

Enlarged Area:

Page 35: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$/cw

t.

MPP MARGIN MPP 10-YEAR AVERAGE

The Reality: MPP-Dairy Margin Near 10-Year Average Level

Source: USDA NASS Agricultural Prices

MPP-DAIRY MARGINOnly 6% Lower Than 10-Year Average; Margins Improving

Page 36: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

• A national average margin, not an individual farm’s margin

• The U.S. all-milk price minus national average feed costs, computed from a formula usingbenchmark prices of corn, soybean meal and alfalfa hay

• Reflects costs of feeding all dairy animals on a farm

What’s the Margin?

Page 37: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

All-Milk Price Reported monthly by USDA

National Agricultural StatisticsService

Includes premiums Excludes hauling costs Best measure of average prices received by

U.S. dairy farmers

What’s the Margin?

Page 38: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

National Average Feed Cost calculation using … USDA Ag Prices report for corn/bushel USDA Ag Market News Central Illinois soybean meal/ton USDA Ag Prices report for alfalfa hay/ton

National Average Cost of Feed Calculation= 1.0728 X U.S. average corn price/bushel+ 0.00735 X Central Illinois soybean meal price/ton + 0.0137 X U.S. average alfalfa hay price/ton

What’s the Margin?

Page 39: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

MPP Operating as Intended• Dairy farmers built this program to protect

against catastrophic circumstances, not enhance income

• Dairy farmers didn’t want the program to encourage production/distort the market

• Supporting our own program will protect dairy programs in the future

Page 40: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

MPP Operating as Intended

• Is it perfect? Certainly not. Can we

make it better? Yes, but …

Main Objective: Provide protection against catastrophic financial losses

Page 41: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Tom BalmerExecutive Vice President

Page 42: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT: A Self-Help Initiative By Producers, For Producers • MPP is the public side of dairy’s safety

net; CWT is the private side

• Begun in 2003, CWT remains unique among global efforts in supporting U.S. dairy producers

Page 43: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT in 2015 – What & Why

•Exclusively focused on supporting exports– Bridges the gap between world and

domestic prices

– Helps keep U.S. dairy exports flowing

– Especially critical in face of current headwinds

Page 44: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT in 2015 – An Up Close Look•Providing assistance to cheese, butter

& whole milk powder

•Accepting bids for assistance on a weekly basis

•10 member cooperatives currently active in bidding

Page 45: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT in 2015 – An Up Close Look

• 1,066 Requests for Assistance

• Total Cheese– 835 bids, 242 accepted, 49.9 million

pounds

Page 46: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT in 2015 – An Up Close Look• Butter

– 131 bids, 80 accepted, 25.7 million pounds

• Whole Milk Powder– 100 bids, 70 accepted, 35.6 million

pounds

Page 47: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT in 2015 – An Up Close Look• Milk equivalent – 1.297 billion pounds

• Target Markets– Asia

– Middle East

– North Africa

Page 48: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Where Are U.S. Dairy Commodities Traveling?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

CHEESE BUTTER WMP

Asia

Middle East

Cent. & S.AmericaOceania

North Africa

Europe

Page 49: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Impact on Total Product Movement in 2015

23.828.1

22.3

AMERICAN-TYPE CHEESE BUTTER WHOLE MILK POWDER

MIL

LION

POU

ND

S SH

IPPE

D

UND

ER C

WT

PROG

RAM

in 2

015

Of U.S. American-type cheese exports received CWT assistance

37% 45%Of U.S. WMP exports

received CWT assistance

92%Of U.S. butter

exports received CWT assistance

Page 50: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

CWT: Beyond 2015

• NMPF Board of Directors voted this summer to extend the program at four cents per hundredweight through 12/31/18

• Renewal process currently underway

Page 51: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall Meeting

Questions?

Page 52: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Trade Policy IssuesJaime CastanedaSenior VP, Strategic Initiatives & Trade Policy

Page 53: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

U.S. Dairy Trade Balance

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U.S. FTAs: Historically Positive

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U.S. FTAUS Exports

Pre-FTA (Millions)

US Exports2014

(Millions)

Mexico -NAFTA $252 $1,586

South Korea $220 $410

Central America &

D.R.$67 $183

Australia $6 $171

U.S. FTAUS Exports

Pre-FTA (Millions)

US Exports2014

(Millions)

Singapore $8 $98Morocco $0.1 $97

Peru $20 $63Chile $3 $59

Colombia $8 $55Panama $32 $45

Page 55: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Intransigence of 2 FTA partners accustomed to fully excluding dairy

U.S. geopolitical interests re: Japan

Dairy discussed at Prime Minister level; High trade-off pressures specific to dairy

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Unique Factors Shaped Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Page 56: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

TPP Final Grade….TBD!

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Analysis Hinges on Details In:

•Market Access

•SPS – New rules to make unscientific

barriers to exports less common

•Geographical Indications – New procedures to hinder barriers

to U.S. cheese exports

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U.S.: Nation of Immigrants

63

Built businesses and MARKETSusing knowledge and skills

Page 59: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

EU’s “Beggar Thy Neighbor” Policy

64

•What: – Attempts to cure a country's economic

problems by practices that harm the interests of its trading partners

•Relevance to cheese???– EU GI suppliers can’t meet global demand

yet EU working to block other’s sales

Page 60: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Top Legislative IssuesJohn HollayVP, Government Relations

Ryan BennettDirector, Government Relations

Page 61: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Immigration Reform•NMPF survey

•Legislative history– H. R. 1773

•Current state of affairs

•Presidential politics

Page 62: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

GMO Labeling•Safe & Accurate Food

Labeling Act of 2015– H. R. 1599

•Federal preemption

•Voluntary labeling

– Vermont law

Page 63: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

School Nutrition•School Milk Nutrition

Act of 2015– H. R. 2407

•Response to declining consumption in schools

•1% flavored milk

– Law vs. Regulation

Page 64: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Tax Priorities •Section 179

•Estate tax repeal or reform

•Biogas and resource recovery investment tax credit

•Section 199 deduction

Page 65: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall Meeting

Questions?

Page 66: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall Meeting

Time for a Break

Page 67: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

NMPF Town Hall MeetingPART II

FARM Program

Animal Drug Residues

Environment

REAL® Seal

Page 68: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

FARM Program

Emily MeredithVP, Animal Care

Page 69: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

•Bullet Test Line One

•Bullet Text Line Two

•Bullet Text Line Three– Bullet Text Line Four

•Bullet Text Line Five

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FARM 3.0 Technical Writing Group • Dr. Karen Jordan, DVM, Dairy Farmers of America Member, Producer

• Antone Mickelson, Northwest Dairy Association

• David Darr, Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.

• John Mahoney, Land O’Lakes, Inc.

• Kevin Olson, Prairie Farms Dairy, Inc.

• Gatz Riddell, DVM, American Association of Bovine Practitioners

• Nigel Cook, DVM, University of Wisconsin

• Nina Von Keyserlingk, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

• Cassandra Tucker, Ph.D., University of California-Davis

• Marcia Endres, Ph.D., University of Minnesota

• Josh White, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association

• Branden Treichler, Foremost Farms USA

• Paul Humphrey, Select Milk Producers, Inc.

• Keri Retallick, Praedium/Validus

• Steve Maddox, Dairy Management, Inc. Board Member

• Dr. Richard Doak, DVM; Maryland & Virginia Milk Producers Cooperative Assn.

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FARM 3.0 Technical Writing Group

• Met in June, broke into small groups

• Minor resources/references edits to chapters 3, 4, 5

• Significant edits to chapters 6 & 10

Page 72: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

New FARM Animal Care Partnerships•Dairy Beef Quality Assurance

•Merck Dairy CARES 365

+ +

Page 73: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Building the FARM Brand •Consumer-Friendly

Website

•New “FARM Cares” Blog

•FARM Supporter Badge

Page 74: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

FARM Program Goes Social • Launched FARM Program social media to

share successes & engage w/ customers: – National Dairy FARM Program

– @FARMProgram

– @FARMProgram– Share your stories of animal care and

ask questions using #FARMProud

Page 75: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Hear from Our Customers—Today!

• Michael Gonda, Senior Vice President, Communications, Chobani

• Tres Bailey, Director, Federal Government Relations, Walmart

• Ann Burkhart, Director Responsible Sourcing, Starbucks

• Mike Nosewicz, VP of Network Optimization & Fresh Dairy, Kroger

Page 76: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Antibiotic Stewardship

Jamie JonkerVP, Sustainability & Scientific Affairs

Page 77: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Antibiotics: “Judicious Use” or “Stewardship”

Page 78: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

White House CARB Initiatives“... working domestically and internationally to detect, prevent, and control illness and death related to antibiotic-resistant infections by implementing measures that reduce the emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria and help ensure the continued availability of effective therapeutics for the treatment of bacterial infections.”

- Executive Order 13676 Combating Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria

Page 79: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

FDA and California Initiatives• FDA Veterinary Feed Directive, GFI #209 & #213

– No shared class drugs for production claims

– Treatment through feed/water requires prescription

– Ionophores unaffected

• CA law– All treatment uses will require prescription 2018

Page 80: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

2015 Milk and Dairy Beef Residue Avoidance Manual• Best management practices for use

of antimicrobials

• Comprehensive list of approved antimicrobial drugs

• Residue testing options

Page 81: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Environmental IssuesClay DetlefsenSenior VP, Regulatory & Environmental Affairs

Ryan Bennett

Director, Government Relations

Page 82: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Environmental Update• Yakima

• Notice of intent – Corcoran, CA

• Monsanto glyphosate lawsuits

“The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers” William Shakespeare, King Henry VI, Part 2

Page 83: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Environmental Update• Removal Technologies

• Nutrient recycling challenge

• Pennsylvania SB 724

•Biogas & resource recovery tax credit

Page 84: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

The REAL® Seal

Christopher GalenSenior VP, Communications

Page 85: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

The REAL® Seal: 2015 at a Glance•Continued to grow the REAL® Seal

community on Facebook and Pinterest– Facebook has seen a 71% growth since

January 1, with the page totaling over 220,000 fans

– Pinterest has grown 224% since January 1, totaling 940 followers to date

Page 86: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

The REAL® Seal: 2015 at a Glance•Continued to grow the REAL® Seal

community online

•Recruited 10 bloggers, dubbed the Dairy Divas, to create recipes and build awareness around the benefits of using dairy products

Page 87: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

The REAL® Seal: 2015 at a Glance•Targeted efforts to key months while

maintaining engagement year round– June: National dairy month

– November: Holiday season

– December: Holiday season

Page 88: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Facebook Remains Top Resource

•The REAL® Seal Facebook page has grown to over 220,000 fans, 83% of which, are women

Page 89: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Facebook Remains Top Resource

•Unique and informative posts have driven 2.75 million impressions and 105,000+ fan interactions since January 1, 2015

Page 90: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Authentic and Educational Posts Drive Engagement on Facebook

Content focusing on:• Raise Awareness of

REAL® Seal• Education About REAL®

vs. Imitators• Brand Promotion• RESULTS

95,000 Likes10,800 Shares2,500 Comments

Page 91: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

June Pinterest Contest Drives Growth

• The REAL® Seal hosted a one month long contest on Pinterest where fans and bloggers were tasked with pinning their favorite dairy treat. As a result, the page saw a 63% growth in fans and over 263,000 impressions

Page 92: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

June Dairy Month for REAL® Seal• A month-long celebration for National

Dairy Month that emphasizes education on wholesome benefits of REAL® Dairy for adults and children

• Content areas include:– Nutritional

– Celebration of Summer

– Versatility of Dairy

• Pin-to-Win contest to drive fan growth on Pinterest

Page 93: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring

Coming Up in 2015• November Wholesome Recipe

content

• December focus on desserts with dairy

• More Dairy Divas posts

• Pinterest contestsOnly the nutrient rich survive!

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NMPF Town Hall Meeting

Questions?

Page 95: NMPF Town Hall Hall slides final 102715.pdf• Monthly Dairy Market Report • Annual NMPF Dairy Data Highlights • U.S. Dairy Export Council 2016-2018 Business Plan • Monitoring