NJ SHARES The Evaluation of 2007 Grants October 20, 2008 Revised 11/21/08.

NJ SHARES The Evaluation of 2007 Grants

October 20, 2008

Revised 11/21/08

Evaluation Goals

• Characterize 2007 NJ SHARES grant recipients

• Characterize 2007 NJ SHARES grants

• Examine good faith payments

• Analyze post-grant payment compliance

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Evaluation Components

• Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis– Characterizes grant recipients– Characterizes grants

• Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis– “Good Faith” Payment Analysis– Grant Coverage Analysis– Post-Grant Payment Compliance

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Evaluation Components

• Data received from:– ACE– Elizabethtown Gas– NJNG– PSE&G– SJG– JCP&L (Not usable)– Rockland (Not usable)

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NJ SHARES Database Analysis2007 Grant Counts by Utility

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UtilityNumber of

GrantsPercent of All

GrantsGrant Dollars

Percent of Grant Dollars

Atlantic City Electric 414 6% $136,106 4%

Elizabethtown 571 9% $326,337 8%

JCP&L 964 15% $321,354 8%

NJNG 552 8% $311,012 8%

PSE&G 3,510 54% $2,450,168 64%

Rockland 40 1% $12,779 <1%

SJG 485 7% $284,427 7%

TOTAL 6,536 100% $3,842,183 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Q1 Grant Counts by Type

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Type Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008

Electric Only 683 17% 715 19% 1,007 24%

Gas Only 756 19% 832 22% 1,036 24%

Electric & Gas 2,416 61% 2,031 55% 1,979 46%

Electric Heat 113 3% 140 4% 236 6%

TOTAL 3,968 3,718 4,258

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Grant Counts by County

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CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

Atlantic 180 2.8% Middlesex 613 9.4%

Bergen 228 3.5% Monmouth 521 8.0%

Burlington 209 3.2% Morris 259 4.0%

Camden 440 6.7% Ocean 495 7.6%

Cape May 44 0.7% Passaic 300 4.6%

Cumberland 138 2.1% Salem 41 0.6%

Essex 1,072 16.4% Somerset 165 2.5%

Gloucester 226 3.5% Sussex 61 0.9%

Hudson 487 7.5% Union 593 9.1%

Hunterdon 27 0.4% Warren 63 1.0%

Mercer 371 5.7% TOTAL 6,533 100.0%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Years Received Grants, 2005-2008

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Number of Years Percent of Grant Recipients

1 Year 82%

2 Years 13%

3 Years 4%

4 Years 1%

Number of Years Percent of Grant Recipients

1 Year 82%

2 Years 13%

3 Years 4%

4 Years 1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Members Contributing to Income

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Household Members

2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients

None <1 % 0% 0%

One 75% 73% 72%

Two 22% 24% 25%

Three or More 3% 3% 3%

Mean Number 1.3 1.3 1.3

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient Income Sources

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Income Source 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients

Employment 88% 89% 88%

Pension or Social Security

12% 12% 13%

Unemployment Compensation

6% 5% 5%

Disability 5% 4% 5%

Child Support 4% 4% 3%

Other 3% 3% 3%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Annual Household Income

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Annual Household Income

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

< $10,000 <1% 0% 0%

$10,000 - $19,999 9% 6% 5%

$20,000 - $29,999 31% 28% 22%

$30,000 - $39,999 28% 29% 29%

$40,000 + 31% 38% 45%

Mean Annual Income $35,942 $38,921 $41,844

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Poverty Level

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Household Poverty Level

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

<175% 6% 6% 5%

175% - 199% 26% 24% 20%

200% - 249% 32% 32% 30%

250% - 299% 17% 16% 17%

300% + 19% 22% 28%

Mean Poverty Level 251% 257% 273%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Composition

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Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

Household Composition

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

<6 Years Old 29% 26% 28%

≤ 18 Years Old 61% 60% 64%

> 60 Years Old 8% 8% 13%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Composition

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Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.


2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

Single Parent 14% 13% 27%

Elderly Only 4% 5% 9%


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2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients

All ≤ 18 Years Old

> 60 Years Old All ≤ 18 Years

Old > 60 Years

Old

<175% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 5%

175% - 199% 24% 27% 26% 20% 22% 18%

200% - 249% 32% 33% 32% 30% 32% 30%

250% - 299% 16% 16% 16% 17% 18% 16%

300% + 22% 16% 21% 28% 23% 31%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


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2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients

All Single Parent

Elderly Only

All Single Parent

Elderly Only

<175% 6% 11% 5% 5% 7% 5%

175% - 199% 24% 34% 26% 20% 24% 18%

200% - 249% 32% 34% 32% 30% 33% 28%

250% - 299% 16% 13% 16% 17% 18% 15%

300% + 22% 8% 21% 28% 18% 33%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient Household Size

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Household Size

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

1 26% 22% 24%

2 30% 30% 28%

3 21% 22% 21%

4 14% 15% 17%

5 + 9% 10% 11%

Mean Size 2.5 2.7 2.7

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Main Heating Fuel

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Main Heating Fuel

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

Natural Gas 82% 83% 84%

Electric 13% 11% 11%

Oil 5% 5% 4%

Propane <1% <1% <1%

Other <1% <1% <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Reported Bill Balance

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

< $250 8% 8% 7%

$250 - $499 25% 20% 23%

$500 - $749 23% 22% 24%

$750 - $999 16% 15% 17%

$1,000 + 29% 35% 29%

Mean Balance $892 $993 $879

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Bill Balance

Percent of Federal Poverty Level

< 175% 175-199% 200-249 % 250-299% 300% +

< $500 29% 30% 32% 30% 27%

$500 - $749 26% 23% 23% 25% 23%

$750 + 45% 47% 46% 45% 50%

Mean Balance $836 $873 $864 $883 $932

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean 2005-2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Grant Type 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients

Electric Only $563 $566 $557

Gas Only $654 $740 $762

Electric & Gas $1,108 $1,268 $1,168

Electric Heat $831 $823 $904

All Grants $892 $993 $879

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Grant Application for 2005-2007 Recipients

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Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

Collections Actions 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients

Past Due Balance 8% 3% 17%

Past Due Warning Notice 47% 18% 17%

Shut-Off Date Not Passed 20% 22% 20%

Shut-Off Date Passed 26% 49% 41%

Utility Shut-Off 0% 9% 4%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Reason for Grant Application

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Reason for Application 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients

Temporary Financial Crisis 60% 68% --

High Energy Costs 27% 24% 69%

Medical/Health 7% 5% 11%

Unemployment 3% 2% 6%

Reduced Hours/Change in Employment

-- -- 6%

Other 3% 2% 8%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2007 Recipient “Other” Reasons for Grant Application

– Temporary financial crisis

– Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby in the home)

– Car repairs

– Meter read after months of low, estimated bills

– Over income limit for LIHEAP

– Mortgage, rent, or child support arrearages or increases

– Medical costs

– Home repairs

– Moving costs

– Other bills

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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Grant Amounts

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Grant Amount 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients

< $300 45% 14% 11%

$300 <1% 14% 20%

$301 - $699 55% 28% 24%

$700 0% 10% 17%

$700 - $999 0% 12% 10%

$1,000 0% 22% 17%

Mean Grant $373 $603 $588

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Grant Amounts

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Grant Amount Grant Type

Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat

< $300 25% 10% 4% 5%

$300 75% <1% <1% 2%

$301 - $699 0% 40% 28% 34%

$700 <1% 50% <1% 58%

$700 - $999 0% 0% 25% 0%

$1,000 0% 0% 43% 0%

Mean Grant $277 $573 $797 $600

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Mean Grant Amount by Utility

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Utility 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients

Atlantic City Electric $286 $331 $329

Elizabethtown $237 $504 $572

JCP&L $278 $303 $333

NJNG $246 $557 $563

PSE&G $420 $669 $698

Rockland $237 $284 $319

SJG $236 $544 $586

PART 2Utility Data Analysis Methodology• Focused on Q1 2007 grant recipients

• Transaction data from participating utilities

• Files contain payments, charges, account balances

• Analyzed:

– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”

– Grant coverage of pre-grant balances

– Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals

• Used Q1 2006 and Q1 2008 recipients as comparison groups

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Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions

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Q1 2007 Recipient Treatment Group

Q1 2006 Recipient Comparison Group

Q1 2008 Recipient Comparison Group

Accounts IncludedAll Q1 2007 grant

recipients

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2006

only

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2008 that did not receive grants in Q1 2007

Analysis Period Starts 1 day following grant1 year + 1 day after

grant1 year + 1 day before

grant

Analysis Period Ends1 year + 1 day after

grant2 years + 1 day after

grant1 day before grant

Analysis Period Span Q1 2007– Q1 2008 Q1 2007– Q1 2008 Q1 2007– Q1 2008

Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions (continued)

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2006

Q1 2007 ANALYSIS PERIOD



GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAYGRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

2007 2008

GRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

1 YEAR

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition

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• The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account.

• Only payments made by the customer are counted.

INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS

INTAKE DATE

GRANT DATE

“GOOD FAITH” PERIOD

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Number Submitted 3,857 3,902 3,435

Number Returned 2,889 3,041 2,999

Eligible for Analysis* 1,445 1,974 2,789

Percent of Requested Accounts

37% 51% 81%

* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

96% 96% 98%

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis

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PaymentsQ1 2006

RecipientsQ1 2007

RecipientsQ1 2008

Recipients

$0 2% 2% 1%

$1 - $99 2% 2% 1%

$100 11% 15% 9%

$101 - $250 26% 27% 23%

$251 - $500 34% 30% 28%

$501 + 25% 25% 38%

Mean Payment $394 $375 $502

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2007 Recipients

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PaymentsFederal Poverty Level

< 175% 175-199% 200-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%

$0 0% 2% 1% 2% 2%

$1 - $99 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

$100 24% 16% 15% 16% 12%

$101 - $250 24% 28% 25% 28% 25%

$251 - $500 29% 31% 31% 25% 32%

$501 + 21% 21% 26% 27% 27%

Mean Payment $340 $352 $379 $399 $396

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100

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PaymentsQ1 2006

RecipientsQ1 2007

RecipientsQ1 2008

Recipients

25th Percentile 1 1 2



Mean Number of Payments

2.4 2.2 3.0

Grant Coverage AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients



Eligible for Analysis* 1,834 2,473 2,874

Percent of Requested Accounts

48% 63% 84%

* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006-Q1 2008 Grant Coverage

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $892 $1,062 $1,173

Mean Grant $500 $589 $643

Mean Post-Grant Balance $392 $473 $530

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

67% 68% 68%

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage Distribution

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Percentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

32% 47% 64% 85% 100%

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage

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Q1 2007 Recipients

Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $755 $992 $1,278 $1,017

Mean Grant $277 $555 $777 $573

Mean Post-Grant Balance $477 $437 $502 $444

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

55% 73% 72% 67%

Payment Compliance AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients



Accounts with Usable Data* 1,764 2,826 2,881

Amount of Data Available for Analysis

3 Months 1,458 2,370 2,097

6 Months 1,410 2,256 2,060

9 Months 1,357 2,144 1,992

12 Months 1,303 2,041 1,895

Percent of Requested Accounts 43% 52% 55%* An account has usable data if it appears to have received the NJ SHARES grant and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients

3 Months 143% 82% 113%

6 Months 131% 95% 110%

9 Months 111% 93% 101%

12 Months 100% 83% 81%

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills PaidAccounts with 12 Months of Data

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3 Months 140% 79% 113%

6 Months 130% 91% 110%

9 Months 111% 90% 101%

12 Months 100% 83% 81%

Payment Compliance Analysis Accounts with 12 Months of Data

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Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90%

3 Months 67% 72% 27% 34% 53% 59%

6 Months 70% 78% 33% 44% 54% 65%

9 Months 63% 77% 30% 46% 51% 66%

12 Months 49% 71% 19% 36% 13% 30%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid Recipients with 12 Months of Data

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Percent of Bills Paid

Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

< 50% 3% 7% 5%

50% - 75% 8% 27% 28%

76% - 90% 18% 30% 36%

91% - 99% 23% 17% 17%

100% + 49% 19% 13%

Mean 100% 83% 81%

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Starting Balance $679 $380 $587

3 Months $519 $550 $563

6 Months $441 $495 $531

9 Months $517 $513 $581

12 Months $692 $773 $1,032

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill BalanceAccounts with 12 Months of Data

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Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Starting Balance $661 $348 $574

3 Months $506 $520 $549

6 Months $429 $475 $518

9 Months $507 $511 $570

12 Months $692 $773 $1,032

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients

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11%

13%

6%70%

Percent of Q1 2007 Recipients

Ending Balance < $100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100

Balance Increased by < $100

Balance Increased by ≥ $100

Successful (24%)

Marginal Success (6%)

Need More Help(70%)

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued)

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Ending Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance

≥ $100

Balance Increased by

<$100


≥ $100

Number of Customers 230 251 125 1,435

Percent of Customers 11% 13% 6% 70%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $618 $1,646 $935 $1,011

Mean Grant Amount $493 $599 $538 $617

Mean Post-Grant Balance $125 $1,047 $397 $394

Mean Number of Payments* 10 11 10 9

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 105% 118% 97% 72%* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


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≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Charges $1,976 $2,525 $2,319 $2,667

Mean Payments $2,082 $2,930 $2,269 $1,979


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Balance Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +

Number of Customers 487 634 314

Percent of Customers 24% 31% 15%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $789 $981 $1,427

Mean Grant Amount $513 $626 $765

Mean Post-Grant Balance $276 $355 $662

Mean Number of Payments* 9 9 8

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 84% 70% 57%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


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$1,000 +



Mean Charges $2,038 $2,570 $3,839

Mean Payments $1,785 $1,928 $2,382


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≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Starting Balance $81 $976 $327 $283

Mean Ending Balance -$26 $571 $377 $971

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 84% 100% 99% 11%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 60% 100% 0% 0%


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$1,000 +



Mean Starting Balance $213 $234 $490

Mean Ending Balance $466 $875 $1,948

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 30% 3% 0%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 0% 0% 0%




≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Median Annual Income $36,186 $38,076 $39,672 $37,344

< 175% FPL 4% 7% 4% 5%

175% – 199% FPL 19% 17% 23% 20%

200% - 249% FPL 29% 30% 27% 30%

250% - 299% FPL 19% 17% 18% 18%

≥ 300% FPL 30% 29% 28% 29%

Percent Single-Parent 17% 23% 22% 28%

Percent Elderly-Only 18% 8% 7% 8%


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$1,000 +



Median Annual Income $36,612 $37,200 $38,700

< 175% FPL 4% 5% 3%

175% – 199% FPL 18% 19% 23%

200% - 249% FPL 32% 30% 26%

250% - 299% FPL 18% 18% 16%

≥ 300% FPL 28% 28% 31%

Percent Single-Parent 25% 29% 30%

Percent Elderly-Only 8% 9% 8%


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Grant TypeEnding Balance

<$100


≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100

Electric Only 22% 27% 24% 20%

Gas Only 47% 35% 42% 26%

Electric & Gas 30% 35% 32% 51%

Electric Heat 1% 3% 2% 3%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%


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Grant TypeBalance

Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +

Electric Only 27% 18% 12%

Gas Only 28% 26% 23%

Electric & Gas 42% 53% 63%

Electric Heat 3% 3% 2%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the 12 Months Following Grant

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Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 19%

Elizabethtown 6%

NJNG 8%

PSE&G 7%

SJG 14%

TOTAL 9%

Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the “Good Faith” Period

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Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 3%

Elizabethtown <1%

NJNG 2%

PSE&G 1%

SJG 1%

TOTAL 1%

NJ SHARES The Evaluation of 2007 Grants October 20, 2008 Revised 11/21/08.

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Transcript of NJ SHARES The Evaluation of 2007 Grants October 20, 2008 Revised 11/21/08.