1

Robert Pirani

Vice President for Energy and Environment

Regional Plan Association

Weathering the Impacts

Hurricane Sandy

Resiliency:

The capacity of a

system to

maintain its

purpose and

integrity in the

face of changing

circumstance.

Coastal Zone Adaptation StrategiesRegional

Neighborhood

Site

Retreat

1. Provide more transportation choices.

2. Promote equitable, affordable housing.

3. Enhance economic competitiveness.

4. Support existing communities.

5. Coordinate policies and leverage investment.

6. Value communities and neighborhoods.

HUD SCI Livability Principles

10

Climate Uncertainty

FEMA

Predicted

Extent of

100 – Year

Storm Event

Actual

Extent ofHurricaneSandyStorm Surge

Monthly Maximum Water Levels at the Battery

Courtesy AECOM

Nort

h A

merican V

ert

ical D

atu

m 1

988 (

feet)

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Years

Monthly High Water

Previous

Record

March 1962December

1992

Hurricane

Irene

Sandy

-2

9:24 PM – Manhattan Battery

• 13.88 feetMean Lower Low Water

• 11.10 feet North American Vertical Datum

1988

14

Market Uncertainty

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

OverAge65inSandyInundationArea

New York

New Jersey

Connecticut

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jobs in Hurricane Sandy Inundation Area

New York

New Jersey

Connecticut

New Advisory Base Flood Elevations

Population Household

People and Homes in Existing and New

100-year Floodplain

Additional in New ABFE Designation

In Existing 100-year Floodplain

600,000

400,000

200,000

18

Government Uncertainty

• FEMA

• HUD

• DHS

• USDA

• USDOT

• NOAA

• SBA

• FWS

• State of NY

• State of NJ

• State of CT

• Municipalities

• Joint Field

Office

• Inter-Agency

Task Forces

• Rebuilding

Task Force

• NYS2100

• Senate

Bipartisan

Task Force

• Housing

Recovery

Office

Decision-Makers

Federal Transit Administration

Army Corps of Engineers

Community Development Block Grant

EPA Grants

NOAA

Other

Funding for Hazard Mitigation and

Rebuilding

21

AddressingUncertainty

Scenario Planning

Constants

Factors that are unlikely to change

substantially between now and 2035.

•Demographic Trends

•Climate Change

•Aging Coastal Infrastructure

Driving forces or long term trends that

contribute to change in each scenario.

•Coastal Storms

•Regional Economic Growth

Trends

The prime movers, decision-makers, or

agents of change within a scenario.

•Local Residents and Businesses

•Financial and Insurance Sector

•Government

Agents

Factors that could significantly impact

how alternative futures actually unfold.

•Frequency and Severity of Coastal

Storms

•Community and Market Response

•Government Response

Uncertainties

27

AddressingUncertainty

28

Criteria for Evaluation

•Resilient

•Redundant

•Robust

•Regional

29

Robert Pirani

Vice President for Energy and Environment

Regional Plan Association

Weathering the Impacts