3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 1 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

Home Magazine Archive Subscribe Events Store Advertise Login Giving

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in 2019. Zarifhas suggested that Iran receive compensation for its economiclosses after the United States withdrew from the JointComprehensive Plan of Action.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneisaid on January 8 that Tehran was in no rush forthe United States to rejoin the 2015 nuclear dealformally known as the Joint Comprehensive Planof Action (JCPOA), but, he also said, sanctions

Nine hurdles to reviving the Irannuclear dealBy Seyed Hossein Mousavian | January 19, 2021

Seyed

Hossein

Mousavian

AmbassadorSeyedHosseinMousavian isa MiddleEast Securityand NuclearPolicySpecialist atPrincetonUniversityand a formerchief ofIran’s... ReadMore

! Doomsday Clock Nuclear RiskClimate ChangeDisruptive TechnologiesCOVID-19 Support Our Work

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 2 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

on Iran must be lifted immediately. “If thesanctions are lifted, the return of the Americansmakes sense,” he insisted. President-elect JoeBiden has announced his plan to return to thedeal soon after he is sworn into o^ce. “If Iranreturns to strict compliance with the nucleardeal,” he wrote in an op-ed for CNN, “the UnitedStates would rejoin.” His Iranian counterpart,President Hassan Rouhani, has also expressedwillingness to return to the deal, stating that, “Irancould come into compliance with the agreementwithin an hour of the United States doing so.”

Five years ago, after years of intensivenegotiations, six world powers managed to signthe world’s most comprehensive nuclearagreement with Iran. While the agreement was apolitical one, it was also rati`ed by the UNSecurity Council in Resolution 2231. And,according to the International Atomic EnergyAgency (IAEA), the organization tasked withverifying the agreement’s technical aspects, Iranwas fully complying with the deal for about threeyears, until President Trump withdrew from it inMay 2018. In response to the US violations of thenuclear agreement, Iran too reduced some of itscommitments. Most recently, on January 4, Iranannounced that it had increased its uraniumenrichment levels to 20 percent.

Although reviving the agreement is certainly stillpossible, it won’t be easy. The two sides will need

RELATED POSTS

AFukushimalesson:VictimcompensationschemesneedupdatingBy HirokazuMiyazaki

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 3 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

to overcome nine hurdles to make it happen.

First, the sequencing of a mutual return could bean immediate problem. Iran expects the UnitedStates to lift sanctions `rst, because it was theTrump administration that withdrew `rst. WhileTehran’s demand is legitimate, Washington mayask that Iran come into full compliance beforelifting sanctions. Indeed, a straightforwardreading of the quotation from Joe Biden’s op-edsuggests just that. In this scenario, after JoeBiden’s executive order rejoining the deal, Iranand the world powers can meet and agree on arealistic plan with a speci`ed timeline ofproportionate reciprocal actions.

Second is the issue of what complianceconstitutes. During the Obama administrationthere was one major barrier to the full realizationof the terms of the agreement: Many US primarysanctions, targeting US citizens and permanentresidents, organizations, and individuals thatengage in trade and business with their Iraniancounterparts, remained intact. These sanctionslimited the economic bene`ts of the deal for Iran.The 29th paragraph of the deal clearly states thatall signatories will refrain from any policyspeci`cally intended to directly and adversely

RELATED:

A clean return to the

Iran nuclear deal

should be Biden’s Hrst

option

10 yearsafterFukushima:Are Japanesenuclearpower plantssafe?By Jun Tateno

After 75years, it’stime to cleanBikiniBy Hart Rapaport,Ivana NikolićHughes

The long-termproblem of“peaceful”plutoniumBy Robert Alvarez

Can theEnergy

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 4 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

affect the normalization of trade and economicrelations with Iran. This cannot be achievedwithout abolishing the primary sanctions.

Third, the Trump administration imposednumerous sanctions against Iran under the guiseof terrorism and human rights, aimed atpreventing the Biden administration fromreturning to the deal. For a clean implementationof the agreement, Biden will need to remove all ofthese sanctions as well.

Fourth, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreementand violation of the UN Security CouncilResolution 2231 as well as other internationalcommitments has damaged US credibilityabroad. There is now a widespread belief amongpolicy makers in Iran that the United States willsimply not live up to its end of the bargain, nomatter what that bargain is. This naturally raisesthe important question: What guarantees arethere that the United States will remaincommitted to the deal in the post-Biden era?

Fifth, because of Trump’s maximum pressurepolicy, the Iranian economy has sufferedhundreds of billions of dollars of losses whileIran was in full compliance with the terms andconditions of the deal. Some Iranian leaders,including Iran’s foreign minister MohammadJavad Zarif, have demanded compensation forthe economic damage the country suffered after

ReceiveEmail

Updates

Subscribe

Departmentstore 50 tonsof weapons-gradeplutoniumfor 10,000years?By Robert Alvarez

Armenia’snuclearpower plantisdangerous.Time toclose it.By Brenda Shaffer

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 5 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

the United States withdrew. The challenge will beto `nd a mechanism to compensate for theeconomic damages that the Trumpadministration inficted on the Iranian economy.

Sixth, the “snapback” mechanism built into theagreement allows any country to force the UNSecurity Council to reimpose multilateralsanctions against Iran if Iran fails to ful`ll itscommitments. But this is one-sided: There is nosuch remedy for Iran if other parties fail to dotheir part. This became abundantly clear whenthe Trump administration `rst withdrew from thedeal and then tried to unilaterally re-imposemultilateral sanctions on Iran through thesnapback mechanism. It was as if the injurer wasdemanding punishment for the injured. Althoughthe UN Security Council rejected the US demand,the stunt revealed the structural faw of thesnapback.

Seventh, in the `rst week of December 2020, theIranian parliament passed a bill mandating Iran’sAtomic Energy Organization to resume enrichinguranium to 20 percent purity. The legislation alsorequires the Iranian government to ceasevoluntary implementation of the IAEA’s Additional

RELATED:

Foreign commercial

banks: The essential

partner in future

discussions of the

Iran nuclear deal

Get the newBulletin app

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 6 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

Protocol within two months of the bill’senactment if the other signatories fail to fullydeliver on their commitments under theagreement. And after three months, the AtomicEnergy Organization is obliged to begin using atleast 1,000 second generation centrifuges. Inshort, president-elect Biden will need to movefast.

Eighth, there are some in the United States whoare worried that Trump may start a reckless last-ditch war with Iran before leaving o^ce. Whilethis concern is overblown, there should be nodoubt that US partners in the region will dowhatever they can to prevent Biden’s return to thedeal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuhas already said as much. To be sure, thehardliners in Iran are also fundamentally opposedto the deal.

Ninth, some pundits and politicians inWashington want Biden to leverage the Trumpadministration’s sanctions to pressure Iran toaccept additional commitments beyond theoriginal agreement as a condition for US return tocompliance. These include limiting Iran’s missilecapability, extending the so-called “sunset”clauses within the deal, or resolving regionaldisputes. But from Iran’s perspective, suchdemands are a non-starter. As the spokespersonfor Iran’s foreign ministry said recently, “Nonegotiation has been, is being, or will be held

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 7 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

about Iran’s defense power.”

Despite these hurdles, Biden should neverthelessseek a reentry into the deal. Only a clean and fullimplementation by all parties can save theworld’s most comprehensive nuclear agreement,contain rising US-Iran tensions, and open thepath toward more con`dence building measures.That path should include, upon Biden’s issuing anexecutive order to rejoin the JCPOA, the creationof a working committee of parties to theagreement tasked with ensuring full complianceby all signatories, and a forum, organized by theUN secretary general, in which Iran and the Gulfcountries can discuss a new structure forimproving security and cooperation in the region.

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 8 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

As the coronavirus crisis

shows, we need science

now more than ever.

The Bulletin elevates expert voices above thenoise. But as an independent, nonpro`t media

organization, our operations depend on thesupport of readers like you. Help us continue

to deliver quality journalism that holds leadersaccountable. Your support of our work at anylevel is important. In return, we promise ourcoverage will be understandable, infuential,vigilant, solution-oriented, and fair-minded.

Together we can make a difference.

Keywords: IAEA, Iran nuclear deal, Iran-Saudirelations, JCPOA, con`dence-building measuresTopics: Nuclear Risk

Share:

Support the Bulletin

Facebook Twitter Email App

61More

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 9 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

Subscribe

Leave a Reply

Start the discussion...

Bulletin Daily

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 10 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

A Fukushimalesson: Victimcompensationschemes needupdatingBy Hirokazu Miyazaki |Nuclear Energy, NuclearRisk

10 years afterFukushima: AreJapanese nuclearpower plantssafe?By Jun Tateno | NuclearEnergy, NuclearRisk, Uncategorized

After 75 years,it’s time to cleanBikiniBy Hart Rapaport, IvanaNikolić Hughes |NuclearNotebook, NuclearRisk, Nuclear Weapons

The long-termproblem of“peaceful”plutoniumBy Robert Alvarez |Nuclear Risk

Can the EnergyDepartmentstore 50 tons ofweapons-gradeplutonium for10,000 years?By Robert Alvarez |Analysis, NuclearEnergy, NuclearRisk, Nuclear Weapons

Offshore windpower: Poised(finally) to takeoff on the EastCoast?By Jon Hurdle | ClimateChange

Koch-fundedclimate denial atGeorgeWashingtonUniversity mustend now!By Jasmine Banks,Sophia Halloran |ClimateChange, Opinion, Voices of Tomorrow

Armenia’snuclear powerplant isdangerous. Timeto close it.By Brenda Shaffer |Nuclear Energy, NuclearRisk

3/10/21, 11:23 AMNine hurdles to reviving the Iran nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Page 11 of 11https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/nine-hurdles-to-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

Copyright © 2021 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. All rights reserved.Terms of Use Privacy Policy

1307 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637| 773.702.6308

Doomsday Clock

Doomsday Clock StatementFAQTimelineKnow the TimeDoomsday DashboardPast Statements

Featured Topics

Nuclear RiskClimate ChangeDisruptive Technologies

Other Topics

MagazineEventsNext GenerationMultimediaArts Science InitiativeNuclear NotebookVirtual Tour

Support

Ways to GiveAnnual FundAnnual Dinner & MeetingPlanned GiftsDonor RecognitionSpecial InitiativesStore

About Us

Our MissionLeadershipStaffColumnistsAnnual ReportOpen PositionsWhat’s New at the BulletinEditorial Independence Policy

Contact Us

Send us a TipWrite for UsCopyright InformationGeneral InquiriesSupport UsAdvertise

Stay Connected

FacebookTwitterInstagramLinkedinGet Our NewsletterGet Our AppMy Account