Nilesh Shah Presentation
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Transcript of Nilesh Shah Presentation
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April 2015
How to Make Money ?
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Money Is Not Everything In Life, Money Doesnt Matter.
Make Sure That You Have Made Enough Money Before Making Such Statement. --Warren Buffet
Its all about Money
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India or Abroad ?
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India
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Infosys Microsoft IBM0%
200% 176%
69% 76%
Software
10 years
India
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Maruti Honda Toyota0%
200%
400%
600% 516%
30%89%
Automobiles
India
10 years
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Debt or Equity ?
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Equity
0
400
800
1.87 4.55 47 4862
193
780
16 years
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Trade or Invest ?
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Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
SellSell
Sell
Sell
SellSell
Sell
Trading ?
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Buy the market is red hot
Buy more when the prices are down
See I was right to buy at low
What happened ?
Cut the loss
See I was right to sell, let me short also
It will fall further, stock market is for bears only
Time to short more
What happened ?
Stock market is for gamblers
Trading ?
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Trading Is Injurious to Your Financial Health
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Maruti to Mercedes Benz6 times in 6 years
Invest
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Economy to LuxuryFrom place to palace in 14 years
Invest
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Paint a house or buy one?Century in 22 years
Invest
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Dreams in a decadeNirvana in 10 years
Invest
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114 times 90 times 66 times 22 times 19 times
15 years
Invest
Invest what you consumed
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Why Do I Lose Money In Indian Equity Markets ?
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You Work Hard to do it
From Jun 1979/1989/1999 to Jan 30, 2015
7.5 times in 16 years
236 times in 36 years
42 times in 26 years
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Perfect timing to lose money
Price to Book Value - SENSEX
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I Am Worried About Negative Returns in Equities
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46% CAGR
- 33 % Drop
- 50 % Drop
- 74 % Drop
Buy Good Companies and Give Time
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I Am Worried About The Corrections In Market
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Infosys 70 % Down
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Where Is The Correction ?
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Hero Honda 35 % Down
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Where is the Correction ?
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I am worried about Prices going down even temporarily?
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Correction is an Opportunity
100
10
- 90 %
20
40
80
100
900 %100 %
100 %
100 %
25 %
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29,437 15,921
Time on Pitch
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What if I dont invest in equity ?
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That was in 1998 up 30,000 times in 41 years&
Today the value would stand at $1.4 BillionSource : Forbes Oct 1998 issue
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But There is only oneWarren Buffet
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US citizen moves court seeking release of his shares
MUMBAI: A US citizen has moved the Bombay high court for direction to the Custodian of Enemy Property to release 120 shares along with bonus shares and accrued dividend of Western India Vegetable Products Ltd ( WIPRO), saying its no more enemy property. Additional solicitor general Darius Khambata told the court that the shares are worth Rs 750 crore today.A division bench of Justice P B Majmudar and Justice Mridula Bhatkar on Wednesday was hearing a petition filed by Abubaker Cochinwala, a Texas resident, stating that at the time of vesting, they were in his name by a declaration of gift deed by his father in 1951 and being US citizen the shares could not be enemy property. His advocate Rajiv Narula argued that the property (shares ) is vested with the custodian only for management purposes in a "fiduciary capacity".Khambata said Cochinwalla has a stepmother and 10 other siblings, some based in Pakistan and others in the US, and there may be conflicting claims if the shares are surrendered to him. Observing that prima facie the high court cannot go into these issues, the judges adjourned the matter asking Cochinwala to state if he was willing to file a substantive civil suit in appropriate court to get his title adjudicated.
Times of India July 14, 2011
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It happens in Fund also
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It happens in Fund also
Kotak 50* (Div) Performance (%) as on 31st March, 2015
Scheme Inception date is 29/12/1998. Fund Managed by Mr. Harish Krishnan..^Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.*All payouts during the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then prevailing NAV. Returns 1 year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note: Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of 10,000/- investment made atinception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. # Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional Benchmark.
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It happens in Fund also
Kotak Gilt Investment*Performance (%) as on 31st March, 2015
Scheme Inception date is 29/12/1998. Fund Managed by Mr Abhishek Bisen & Mr Deepak Agrawal.^Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. *All payouts during the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then prevailing NAV. Returns 1 year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note: Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of 10,000/- investment made at inception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. Classification of schemes in short term & long term is based on the average maturity of the scheme. # Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional Benchmark. Please refer the slides after Thank you for top 3 and bottom 3 schemes managed by Mr. Abhishek Bisen & Mr. Deepak Agrawal.
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Why dont I invest in Real Estate or Gold only ?
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Dont put all eggs in one Basket
Real Estate
Dubai has witnessed the boom and doom
Back in India, real estate is still considered a profitable asset
Price: Rs 600 per sq foot in 70s to Rs 125,000 per sq. foot in 2015
208 times up in 45 Years
Exclude Maintenance and Repair Charges
CAGR is approx. 12.56 %
REAL ESTATE SENSEX
01-Jan-70 -600 01-Jan-80 -118.76
30-Jan-15 125000 30-Jan-15 29182.95
12.56% 16.97%Source: Internal Research Calculations
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GOLD PRICE CHART
FROM TO RETURN P.A %
01-01-1970 31-12-1979 30.73%01-01-1980 31-12-1989 -3.27%01-01-1990 31-12-1999 -3.21%01-01-2000 31-12-2009 14.27%01-01-2010 30-01-2015 3.14 %
26 PLUS YEAR
62 % FALL IN PRICES
-32%
Data Source: Bloomberg
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I always made money in Real Estate.
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Making Money
Long Term Investment No Trading Adequate Research and
Due Diligence Judicious use of
Leverage This are all Key to make
money on any asset class.
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Regular Investment
Balanced Investment
Long Term Investment
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Facts about Sensex
Sensex has given a compounded return of 15.03 % return From Jan 1,91 To Jan 30,2015
There are only 21 days when Sensex has hit a Six ( More than 6 % daily Return )
There are only 90 days when Sensex has hit a Four ( More than 4 % Daily Return )
If you had not invested for Just 53 days out of total period of 5812 days your return from Sensex will become NIL.
TIME IN THE MARKET IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TIMING THE MARKET
Internal calculation of S&P BSE SENSEX from 1/1/91 to 30/1/15
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If you are expert why cant you promise 24 % p.a return ?
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Risk and Return go together
Source: Internal Research Calculations
That is the Worlds Market Cap
Original Investment
1,000,000
Target Amount 50,000,000,000,000
Returns Compounded @ Years to Reach There
10% 186
12% 156
15% 127
18% 107
24% 82
36% 58
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Price Vs. Value
EXPENSIVE
CHEAP
FAIR VALUE
SELL
SELL MORE
SELL MORE
BUY
BUY MORE BUY MORE
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Asset Allocation Regular Investment
Short term Pain vs. Long term GainEquity : Buy on Dips and Do SIPsGold : Invest Through Gold ETFFixed Income : Grab DurationReal Estate: Consult the expert
Summary
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Joshua Bell Experience
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This Document is strictly confidential and is meant for private circulation only. This document represents the views of Kotak Mahindra Management Co. Ltd. and must not be taken as the basis for an investment decision. This document does not constitute advice to buy/sell any scheme of Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund. Neither Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, Kotak Mahindra Trustee Company Limited nor Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited, its Directors or associates shall be liable for any damages including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from the use of the information contained herein. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained herein. The AMC reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. The document is solely for the understanding of intended recipients only. Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk. Please read scheme related documents carefully. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance
Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
Slide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Correction is an OpportunitySlide 30Slide 31Slide 32Slide 33Slide 34Slide 35Slide 36Slide 37Slide 38Slide 39Dont put all eggs in one BasketGOLD PRICE CHARTSlide 42Making MoneySlide 44Facts about SensexIf you are expert why cant you promise 24 % p.a return ?Risk and Return go togetherPrice Vs. ValueSlide 49Slide 50Slide 51Slide 52Slide 53Slide 54Slide 55Slide 56Slide 57