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Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the

Nigeria AirspaceNigeria AirspaceNigeria AirspaceNigeria Airspace

The ultimate reason why people fly for pleasure,

business and work is the amount of time it saves

which can be diverted into other useful ventures.

It is fast with least probability of accident, but

whenever it occurs, it is the deadliest of all means of

transportation.

From the 1st instance of plane crash that happened in

1969 to the most recent, Nigeria is yet to find the root

causes of plane crashes – at least so it seems.

This studies takes a look at Plane crashes and its:

� Relationship with days of the week

� Airplane with most Occurrence

� Location of Occurrence

� Month of Occurrence

� Rates of Occurrence

Presentation of DataPresentation of DataPresentation of DataPresentation of Data

No. Date Day Month Year Week Day Airline Victim Location

1 20-Nov-69 20 Nov 1969 Thursday Nigeria Airways 87 Lagos

2 22-Jan-73 22 Jan 1973 Monday Royal Jordanian Airlines 176 Kano

3 1-Mar-78 1 Mar 1978 Thursday Nigeria Airways 16 Kano

4 28-Nov-83 28 Nov 1983 Monday Nigeria Airways 53 Enugu

5 26-Sep-92 26 Sept 1992 Saturday Nigerian Air Force 163 Lagos

6 24-Jun-95 24 June 1995 Saturday Harka Air Services Tupolev 16 Lagos

7 13-Nov-95 13 Nov 1995 Monday Nigeria Airways 9 kaduna

8 7-Nov-96 7 Nov 1996 Thursday ADC 151 Lagos

9 31-Jan-97 31 Jan 1997 Friday Skypower Express 5 Yola

10 5-Jan-00 5 Jan 2000 Friday Skypower Express 17 Abuja

11 4-May-02 4 May 2002 Tuesday EAS Airline 148 Kano

12 22-Oct-05 22 Oct 2005 Saturday Bellview 117 Lagos

13 10-Dec-05 10 Dec 2005 Saturday Sosoliso 107 PH

14 17-Sep-06 17 Sept 2006 Sunday Dornier 15 Benue

15 29-Oct-06 29 Oct 2006 Sunday ADC 98 Abuja

16 3-Jun-12 3 June 2012 Sunday Dana 153 Lagos

The first occurrence of plane crash was in 1969

Simple DeductionSimple DeductionSimple DeductionSimple Deduction

16 plane crashes in 43 years

1 plane crash in 2.6875 years

Relationship with days of the week

Week day Total

Sunday 3

Monday 3

Tuesday 1

Thursday 3

Friday 2

Saturday 4

Grand Total 16

All together, Weekends (Friday,

Saturday & Sunday) contributes 56%

of all crashes.

It is also worth noting that

Midweek – Tuesday & Wednesday –

records only 1 occurrence.

A qualitative analysis of air traffic focusing on

Midweek and Weekend would reveal more details

on the speculations that the weekends sets the

mood for likely accident

Airplane with most Occurrence

Airline TotalADC 2

Bellview 1

Dana 1

Dornier 1

EAS Airline 1

Harka Air Services Tupolev 1

Nigeria Airways 4

Nigerian Air Force 1

Royal Jordanian Airlines 1

Skypower Express 2

Sosoliso 1

Nigeria Airways

4 of 16

25%

Location of Occurrence

Location Total

Abuja 2

Benue 1

Enugu 1

Kaduna 1

Kano 3

Lagos 6

PH 1

Yola 1

Lagos (6) & Kano (3) with

most occurrence

Lagos – 37.5%

Kano – 18.75%

Abuja – 12.5%

AIRPORT 2009 2008

MMA 3,320,103 2,794,920

ABJ 2,800,464 2,328,290

PH 1,034,506 855,249

OSUBI 417,041 345,059

ENUGU 366,592 276,035

CALABAR 316,061 283,451

BENIN 308,741 233,382

OWERRI 276,926 200,397

KANO 188,722 179,428

KADUNA 146,028 126,729

PASSENGER TRAFFFIC

Month of Occurrence

Month Total

Jan 3

June 2

Mar 1

May 1

Oct 2

Nov 4

Dec 1

Sept 2

1st Quarter (JFM) – 4, 2nd Quarter (JFM) – 3

3rd Quarter (JFM) – 2, 4th Quarter (JFM) – 7Plane crash is more likely to happen in the

1st & last Quarters of the year.

AIRPORT Jan Feb Mar Total

TOTAL 907,734 833,383 881,514 2,622,631

AIRPORT April May June Total

TOTAL 1,030,886 970,442 982,455 2,983,783

AIRPORT July Aug Sept Total

TOTAL 1,059,254 1,112,405 1,061,347 3,233,006

AIRPORT Oct Nov Dec Total

TOTAL 1,220,964 1,178,374 1,287,706 3,687,044

PASSENGER TRAFFFIC

Rates of Occurrence

No. Year Victim

1 1969 87

2 1973 176

3 1978 16

4 1983 53

5 1992 163

6 1995 16

7 1995 9

8 1996 151

9 1997 5

10 2000 17

11 2002 148

12 2005 117

13 2005 107

14 2006 15

15 2006 98

16 2012 153

43yrs 1331

Number of Occurrence – 16 times

16 air crashes in 43years

1 air crash in 2.6875years (average)

16 air crashes claim 1331 lives

1 air crash claim 83.1875 lives (average)

1331 lives in 43years

30.95 lives in 1year (average)

Ministerial Press Briefing – 365 Days of Aviation Sector Transformation

By: Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah, OON (Hon. Minister of Aviation)

Monday, 21st May, 2012

This address was before the Dana plane

crash in June, no mention was made of

“Ageing plane”

Recent findings show most air plane in

Nigeria are old and already at their end

of life. However, beyond the age is the

low maintenance culture.

If the right thing is done – proper

monitoring and certification – we

sure can have safe trip!

StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©

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