Nielsen global-consumer-confidence-report-q2-2014

C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 2, 2014

2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 2ND EDITION

2 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2

• Globaljoboptimismreaches50percentforthefirsttimesince2007

• RegionalconfidenceincreasesinNorthAmericaandEurope,declinesinLatinAmericaandtheMiddleEast/AfricaandholdssteadyinAsia-Pacific

• Indiareclaimsthetopconsumerconfidencescorerankingof60countries

• U.S.confidencecontinuestoclimbtopre-recessionlevels

• ConfidenceinItaly,FranceandtheU.K.increase;Germanystabilizes

• China’sconfidenceremainsflat;Japanrecedestoyear-agolevels

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MODESTLY ADVANCES AS OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO RISE IN MANY KEY MARKETS

Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointto97inthe

secondquarterof2014,followingatwo-pointriseatthestartoftheyear.

Thisforwardmomentumcomesafterastagnant2013,duringwhich

confidencewasstubbornlystuckat94forthreeoutoffourquarters,and

ithasledtothehighestscoresincefirst-quarter2007.

TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.

RegionalconsumerconfidenceincreasedinNorthAmerica(103)and

Europe(77),risingthreeandtwopoints,respectively,comparedto

thefirstquarter.ConfidencewashighestintheAsia-Pacificregion,

whichheldsteadyfromthefirstquarterwithascoreof106.Confidence

declinedintheLatinAmerica(90)andMiddleEast/Africaregions(93),

droppingthreepointsandonepoint,respectively.

3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3

ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Thefindingsinthissurveyarebasedonrespondentswithonline

accessin60countries(unlessotherwisenoted).Whileanonline

surveymethodologyallowsfortremendousscaleandglobalreach,it

providesaperspectiveonlyonthehabitsofexistingInternetusers,

nottotalpopulations.Indevelopingmarketswhereonlinepenetration

isstillgrowing,audiencesmaybeyoungerandmoreaffluentthanthe

generalpopulationofthatcountry.Inaddition,surveyresponsesare

basedonclaimedbehaviorratherthanactualmetereddata.

Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreased

comparedtothefirstquarterinItaly(51),withasix-pointjump;inthe

U.S.(104),withafour-pointincrease;intheU.K.(90),withathree-point

increase;andinFrance(60),withaonepointincrease.Meanwhile,

confidencedeclinedeightpointsinJapan(73)andthreepointsin

Germany(96).China’sconsumerconfidenceremainedflatatahigh111.

“BuoyantincreasesacrossconfidencemetricsinNorthAmericaand

steadygainswithinpartsofEuropestrikeapositivenotewithregard

toeconomicrecoveryinmaturemarkets,”saidDr.VenkateshBala,

chiefeconomistatTheCambridgeGroup,apartofNielsen.“Thekey

tocontinuedsustainedeconomicexpansion,however,willbefurther

strengtheningofthejobmarket,whichisvitalforincreasedconsumer

spending.”

TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

Intentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,

majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan30,000

respondentswithInternetaccessin60countries.

Inthelatestroundofthesurvey,conductedMay12–30,2014,consumer

confidenceincreasedin52percentofmarketsmeasuredbyNielsen,

comparedto60percentinthefirstquarter.India(128)increased

sevenpointstoreportthehighestconsumerconfidenceindexscore,

surpassingIndonesia(123),whichpreviouslyheldthetopspotforfive

consecutivequarters.Portugalreportedthelowestconsumerconfidence

score(48),adeclineofthreepointscomparedtothepreviousquarter.

HongKong(103)andJapan(73)reportedthebiggestquarterlydeclines

ofeightpointseach.

4 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22014

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85 AU

STRIA 85 RU

SSIA 85

MEXICO

85 AUSTRALIA

87 LITHUANIA

89 ISRAEL

ITALY 51

90 UNITED KINGDOM

SERBIA 51

92 CHILE

SOUTH KOREA 53

GREECE 55

93 MALAYSIA

HUNGARY 56

95 COLOMBIA

FRANCE

60

95 NORWAY

UKRAINE 61

96 GERMANY

SPAIN 62

98 VIETNAM

FINLAND 67

98 PERU

ARGENTINA 68

98 SINGAPORE

BULGARIA 69 99 NEW ZEALANDPOLAND 71 99 PAKISTAN

VENEZUELA 72

99 SWITZERLAND

SLOVAKIA 72

100 BRAZIL

JAPAN 73

102 CANADA

ROMANIA 73

102 SAUDI ARABIA

TAIWAN 75

103 HONG KONG

CZECH REPUBLIC 76

104 UNITED STATES

LATVIA

78

105 THAILAND

ESTONIA

79

106 D

ENMARK

BELGIU

M

80

109

UNITE

D ARAB EMIR

ATES

IREL

AND

81

111

CHINA

TURK

EY

81

120

PHIL

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81

123

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PORTUGAL

48

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

97GLOBAL

AVERAGE( +1 change from Q1-2014 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ2-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM

5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company

60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5

GLOBAL JOB OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO IMPROVEHalfofglobalrespondentsbelievedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentintheupcomingyear,a1percentage-pointincreasefromthefirstquarter.Whiletheincreasewasmarginal,itwasjustenoughtoreachthepre-recessionoutlookof50percent—alevelnotreachedinsevenyears.

Positiveperceptionsaboutlocaljobprospectsoverthenext12monthsincreasedinthesecondquarterineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.ThebiggestquarterlysurgeinjoboptimismcamefromNorthAmerica,increasing8percentagepointsto46percent.Asia-Pacificrespondentsweremostoptimisticaboutemploymentopportunities:65percentbelievethatjobprospectsarefavorablefortheyearahead,upfrom64percentthepreviousquarter.

TheoutlookforfuturejobprospectsalsoincreasedintheMiddleEast/Africa(42%)andEurope(29%),rising2and1percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter,respectively.InLatinAmerica,thetrendwasdownward:36percentofrespondentsregisteredpositiveperceptionsofemploymentopportunities,comparedwith42percentinthefirstquarter.

“IntheU.S.,consistenttrendsconcerningnon-farmpayrollgrowthandstableunemploymentclaimsprovideawelcomecounterweighttotheunexpectedlylargedeclineinGDPgrowthinthefirstquarter,”saidBala.“Payrollgrowthisvisibleacrossarangeofsectors,whichisalsopositive.However,real-wagegrowthofworkershasbeenanemicsofar,andneedstopickupsubstantially,alongwithotherimprovementsinthelabormarket,inorderforconsumerspendingtoincreaseinabroad-basedway.”

Morethanhalf(56%)ofglobalrespondentsviewedtheirpersonalfinancespositively,aslightrisefromthepastthreeconsecutivequartersinwhichitheldsteadyat55percent.NorthAmericareportedthebiggestregionalincrease,with63percentofrespondentsfeelingsecureinmoneymattersoverthenext12months,upfrom59percentinthefirstquarter.LatinAmericareportedtheonlydeclineinthisscore,with60percentbelievingthestateoftheirfinanceswasgoodorexcellent,downfrom63percentinthefirstquarter.At39percent,Europeanrespondentswereleastconfidentaboutfinances.


GLOBAL JOB PROSPECTS REACH 50% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS

PERCENT WHO BELIEVE JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2

2009

-Q3

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q2

2010

-Q3

2010

-Q4

2011-

Q1

2011-

Q2

2011-

Q3

2011-

Q4

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q2

2012

-Q3

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q2

2013

-Q3

2013

-Q4

2014

-Q1

2014

-Q2

50% 50%

21%HEIGHT OF THE GREAT RECESSION

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014


PERCENT WHO BELIEVE JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE— PRE-RECESSION AND NOWIn2007,priortotheGreatRecession,25countriesboastedconsumer

confidencescoresatorabovetheoptimismbaselineof100index

points.Attheheightoftherecession(Q12009),onlytwocountries—

IndonesiaandDenmark—maintainedthatdistinction.

Fiveyearslater,12countrieshavemadetheslowclimbbacktoan

optimisticreading.Buttheregionalbalanceofcountrieshaschanged

dramatically.

In2007,Europedominatedthelistofcountrieswiththehighest

consumerconfidencescores,followedbycountriesinAsia-Pacific.

Today,DenmarkisthesoleEuropeancountrydeliveringaconfidence

scoreabovethebaseline,andAsia-Pacificholdsthemajoritystakeof

above-the-baselinecountries.


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE OPTIMISM IN THE ECONOMY


PRE-RECESSION (Q3 2007)

Norway 135

India 133

Denmark 124

Australia 120

Indonesia 120

HongKong 118

Vietnam 117

NewZealand 115

Singapore 114

Canada 113UnitedArabEmirates 112

Sweden 110

Philippines 108

Ireland 108

Netherlands 105

Switzerland 105

Finland 104

Chile 104

Russia 103

Brazil 103

Poland 102

Malaysia 101

Spain 100

Argentina 100

UnitedStates 100

DURING RECESSION (Q1 2009)

Indonesia 104

Denmark 102

TODAY (Q2 2014)

India 128

Indonesia 123

Philippines 120

China 111UnitedArabEmirates 109

Denmark 106

Thailand 105

UnitedStates 104

HongKong 103

SaudiArabia 102

Canada 102

Brazil 100

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

LATIN AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE CONFIDENCE INDEX OF 100 BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

LEVELS ABOVE A BASELINE OF 100

INDICATE DEGREES OF OPTIMISM IN THE ECONOMY.


NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsinthesecond

quartertoascoreof104,continuinganupwardtrendthatstartedin

first-quarter2013andhasregisteredan11-pointincreasesincethen.

ConfidencealsoincreasedinCanada,risingthreepointsto102inthe

secondquarterafterdeclinesoverseveralpreviousquarters.

AlmosthalfofAmericans(49%)believeditwasagood/excellent

timetospend,whichisthehighestlevelreportedsince2006andup

6percentagepointsfromthefirstquarterof2014(43%).Optimistic

perceptionsofjobprospectsandpersonalfinancesalsoroseinthe

secondquarter.Whiletheoutlookforjobs(46%)wasstillbelow

pre-recessionlevels(63%),thesentimentrepresentsasignificant

improvementfrom2009,whenitwasat20percent.Almosttwo-thirds

ofU.S.respondents(64%)saidtheirpersonalfinanceswereingood

order,ariseof5percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter.

“IntheU.S.,positivenewsforjob,housingandequitymarketsappears

tohavebuoyedthespiritsofAmericans,”saidJamesRusso,seniorvice

president,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.“Theretailenvironment

fornon-durablegoods,however,isstillcatchingup.Retaildollarsales

offast-movingconsumergoodsareup1.3percentinlatestsixmonths

endingJune.Consumersaremovingaheadslowly,andmarketersneed

toadjusttoanewconsumermindsetofrestraint,whichwilltaketimeto

reverse.”

InCanada,62percentofrespondentswereoptimisticaboutpersonal

finances,and46percentindicatedpositivebuyingintentions,up5

and4percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter,respectively.However,

theoutlookforjobstrendedslightlydownward,declining2percentage

pointsto50percent.

Intheregion,discretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedacross

mostactivities,whileintentionstosave,investandpayoffdebts

declined.Planstousesparecashforvacations,newclothesandhome

improvementprojectsincreased4percentagepointsfromthefirst

quarter.

COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE CONFIDENCE INDEX OF 100 BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION


NORTH AMERICAN SPENDING INTENTIONS RISE

PERCENT WHO SAY NOW IS A GOOD/EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY THE THINGS WANTED AND NEEDED

42% 41% 43%

42%

46%

42% 43% 43% 43%

49%

Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014

CANADA UNITED STATES



EUROPE CONTINUES A SLOW, STEADY CLIMB OUT OF RECESSION ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin72percentofmarkets

measuredinthesecondquarter,withsixof32marketsreporting

declines.Thebiggestregionalincreasesofsixpointseachcompared

tofirst-quarter2014wereinDenmark(106),Belgium(80),Romania

(73)andItaly(51).Confidenceincreaseswerealsoreportedinthe

Netherlands(81),Ukraine(61)andCroatia(50),witheachcountryrising

fivepointscomparedtothefirstquarter.

“Italy’slatestconfidenceboost—thesecondconsecutivequarterof

risingoptimism—comesafteranewgovernmenttookeffectinFebruary

andinstitutedpoliciestofacethecrisis,”saidGiovanniFantasia,market

leader,NielsenItaly.“Retailsalesdatainthefirsthalfoftheyearare

showingsignsofenduranceinsomefoodandbeverageandpackaged

freshfoodcategories.Whilerecoveryremainsverymuchawork-in-

progress,consumersappearcautiouslyoptimisticaboutthefuture.”

Othernotableconfidenceimprovementsincludedayear-over-yearjump

of11pointsintheU.K.toascoreof90—thecountry’shighestlevel

since2007.Russia’sindexalsoincreasedforthreeconsecutivequarters

toascoreof85inthesecondquarter.France’sconfidenceroseforthe

secondconsecutivequarterto60.

“ShopperconfidenceintheU.K.hasreturnedtopre-recessionarylevels,

withhouseholdsnowfeelingfinanciallybetteroffandmorewillingto

spend,”saidChrisMorley,groupmanagingdirector,NielsenU.K.and

Ireland.“Overthelastyear,manymoreBritishconsumersarefeeling

positiveabouttheirjobprospects,withmorethanoneinthreenow

optimistic,comparedtojustoneinfourayearago.”


Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN 72% OF MEASURED EUROPEAN MARKETS

Denmark

Switzerland

Germany

Norway

UnitedKingdom

Israel

Lithuania

Russia

Austria

Sweden

Turkey

Netherlands

Ireland

Belgium

Estonia

Latvia

CzechRepublic

Romania

Slovakia

Poland

Bulgaria

Finland

Spain

Ukraine

France

Hungary

Greece

Serbia

Italy

Croatia

Slovenia

Portugal

106 |

99 |

96 |

95 |

90 |

89 |

87 |

85 |

85 |

84 |

81 |

81 |

81 |

80 |

79 |

78 |

76 |

73 |

72 |

71 |

69 |

67 |

62 |

61 |

60 |

56 |

55 |

51 |

51 |

50 |

49 |

48 |

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PERCENT WHO SAY NOW IS A GOOD/EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY THE THINGS WANTED AND NEEDED

INDEX

PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q1

INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE


“TheriseinRussia’sconsumerconfidenceprovidessomeindication

thatconsumersareincreasinglyshowingreadinesstospend,”saidIrina

Firstova,marketleader,NielsenRussia.“Thelong-termtrend,however,

isstillcautiousasRussianscontinuetomonitorinflationandpersonal

finances.Assuch,promotionalandretailerloyaltyprogramsarevitalin

ordertomaintainandattractnewconsumers.”

Germany’sindexscoredeclinedthreepointstoasolid96aftersteady

increaseswerereportedoverthepasttwoyears.Othercountriesthat

declinedinthesecondquarterwereIreland(81),Austria(85),Portugal

(48)andSwitzerland(99).

“DespiteGermany’sslightconfidencedeclineinthesecondquarter,the

indexisstabilizingatahighlevel,andjobprospectsanddiscretionary

spendingintentionsarestillgood,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,

NielsenGermany.

Jobprospectscontinuedtoimprovethroughouttheregioninthesecond

quarter,albeitslowly.Onlythreecountriesreportedanoptimistic

outlookabove50percent:Switzerland(64%),Germany(58%)and

Denmark(53%).Themostnotablejoboptimismincreasescompared

tofirst-quarter2014camefromDenmark,up9percentagepoints;

Israel,up6percentagepoints;andRomania,up5percentagepoints.

Discretionaryspendingremainedvirtuallyflatacrossallspending

categoriesmeasuredinthesecondquarter.


CONFIDENCE IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION HOLDS STEADYConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificremainedflatfromthefirstquarter

at106.India(128)postedthebiggestquarterlyindexincreaseofthe60

countriesmeasuredwithariseofsevenpoints,exceedingIndonesia’s

score,whichdeclinedonepointto123.Confidencealsoincreasedinthe

Philippines(120),SouthKorea(53)andMalaysia(93)andheldsteadyin

Chinaforathirdconsecutivequarterat111.

“ConsumersinIndiahaveindicatedincreasedlevelsofconfidencein

thesecondquarterwhenthecountry’sgeneralelectionsweretaking

placeinthecountry,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia.

“Thisbuoyancyisyettotranslateintoincreasedconsumptionacross

sectors.Despitetheongoinginflationarytrendandexpectationsof

apoormonsoon,consumersarelikelytoopentheirpursestrings

asweheadintothefestiveseasoninresponsetosavvymarketing

stimulus.Theannualbudgetannouncedbythenewgovernment

revealsapositiveoutlookforbusiness,andweexpectthistoreflect

inconsumersentimentinsubsequentquartersaswell.Thebudget,

whichincorporatesimpetusandincentivesforrural,infrastructure,

manufacturing,aswellasbetterincometaxexemptionsforconsumers,

shouldbodewell,butitwillneedtobewatchedclosely.”

“InChina,percapitaspendingcontinuestogrowwiththeincreaseof

disposableincomeandasthegovernmenttransformsthecountry’s

investment-drivengrowthstrategytoonethatisconsumptionled,”said

YanXuan,presidentofNielsenGreaterChina.“Deepeningurbanization

servesasanotherkeydriverbehindthehighChineseconsumer

confidencelevel.HalfofChina’s1.3billionpeoplehavemovedtotowns

andcities,andtheurbanizationrateisstilllowcomparedwiththeU.S.

andEurope.Thistranslatestomillionsofnewemergingconsumerswith

cashtospendinthecomingdecade.Theseconsumerssharethesame

aspirationandpursuitforabetterlifeastheexistingmiddleclass,and

theywillputtheirincreasingdisposableincometoworkforthem.”

India

Indonesia

Philippines

China

Thailand

HongKong

NewZealand

Singapore

Vietnam

Malaysia

Australia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

128

123

120

111

105

103

99

98

98

93

85

75

73

53

Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 64% OF MEASURED ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014

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INDEX


INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX


INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX


INCREASE

DECREASENO CHANGE


ThebiggestregionalconfidencedeclineswereinJapan(73)andHong

Kong(103),whichdecreasedeightpointseachinthesecondquarter.

ConfidenceinAustralia(85)fellfourpointscomparedtothefirst

quarter,itsfourthstraightquarterlydecrease.

“Japan’slatestconsumerconfidencedeclinedaftertwoconsecutive

quartersofincreases,”saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,

NielsenJapan.“AfterasalestaxriseinApril,averagecombinedsales

atthethreelargestdepartmentstoreretailersshoweddeclinesof10

percentinApriland6percentinMayafterastrong30percentincrease

inMarch.Someconsidertheseconsumptionsetbackstobetemporary,

asgovernmentandbankeasingpolicieslooktoreversetheeffectsofthe

taxchange.”

“InHongKong,retailsalesfiguresreportedbythegovernmentshowed

adeclineof9.8percentinApril,thebiggestdropinfiveyears,”saidEva

Leung,managingdirector,NielsenHongKongandMacau.“Aslowdown

inmainlandvisitors,believedtoberelatedtotightenedcontrols,islikely

affectingthesalesdecline.Consumersarealsomoreconcernedabout

jobsecurity,whichisreflectedinajoboutlookdeclineof8percentage

pointsinthelatestNielsenconsumerconfidenceresults.”

Australia’ssecond-quarterindexdropbringsitsconfidencelevelto

thecountry’slowestscoreonrecord(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuring

consumerconfidencein2005).Justone-thirdofrespondentswere

optimisticaboutjobprospects—thelowestlevelsince2009.Scores

forpersonalfinances(48%)andintentionstobuy(37%)inthenext12

monthsalsodeclined2and4percentagepoints,respectively.

“InAustralia,despiteaperiodofrelativelylowinflationandmodest

GDPgrowth,consumerconfidencehasbeenonthedeclineoverthelast

year,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Realwage

growthisindeclineandAustraliansaretighteningtheirbeltsatretail.In

theshort-term,spendingrestraintisexpectedtocontinueastheimpact

ofthe2014federalbudget,whichreducesbenefits,takeseffect.Retailer

strategiesthataddressconsumerneedsforlow-costalternativeswillbe

betterpositionedforsuccess.”

DiscretionarysavingintentionsintheAsia-Pacificregiondecreased

acrossallcategoriesmeasured,withthebiggestdeclinesforsaving

(62%)andinvesting(34%),whichdropped5and4percentagepoints

comparedtothefirstquarter,respectively.Spendingintentions

decreasedineverycategoryexceptfornewtechnologyproducts,which

increased2percentagepointsto37percent.


THE JOB OUTLOOK IN LATIN AMERICA RETREATSConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregiondeclinedforthesecond

consecutivequartertoanindexscoreof90inthesecondquarter,as

indexscoresfellinsixofthesevencountriesmeasured.Colombia

reportedtheonlyregionalconfidenceincrease,climbingtwopointsto

95,comparedtothefirstquarter.Brazil(100),Chile(92)andVenezuela

(72)declinedsixpointseachinthesecondquarter.Alsoreporting

declineswerePeru(98)andArgentina(68),whichdroppedthreepoints

each,andMexico(85),whichfellonepoint.

“InBrazil,whilehouseholdincomecontinuestogrowandthe

unemploymentrateremainslow,inflationforfoodandbeveragesand

highcreditinterestratescontinue,”saidEduardoRagasol,country

manager,NielsenBrazil.“Thereisasenseofgoodwillandpride

associatedwithhostingtheFIFAWorldCup,butthecountryisalsoin

themidstofapresidentialcampaign,andconsumersarecautiousabout

thefuture.”

Thejoboutlookdeclinedinallsevencountries,withChiledropping10

percentagepoints;Brazil,7points;andArgentina,6points.Thosewho

feltmiredinrecessionincreasedfrom62percentinthefirstquarterto

67percentinthelatestperiod.Cash-strappedLatinAmericansreined

inspendingintentionsacrossallcategoriesmeasuredinthesecond

quarter.

Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN ALL BUT ONE MEASURED LATIN AMERICAN MARKET


BRAZIL

PERU

CHILE

COLOMBIA

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

VENEZUELA

100

98

92

95

85

72

68

-6

-3

-6

2

-6

-3

-1

INDEXPERCENTAGE

POINT CHANGE FROM Q1

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


MIXED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConfidencewashighandabovethebaselineintheUnitedArab

Emirates(109indexpoints)—thehighestlevelintheregion—despite

decliningfivepointsinthesecondquarter.Egypt(81)alsoreporteda

dropofsixpoints,comparedtothefirstquarter.SouthAfricaposted

theonlyregionalconfidenceincrease,climbingthreepointsto85,and

confidenceheldsteadyinSaudiArabia(102)andPakistan(99).

“IntheUnitedArabEmirates,consumerconfidencereturnedto2013

levelsafterafour-pointincreaseinthefirstquarter,”saidArslanAshraf,

managingdirector,NielsenArabianPeninsula.“Inadditiontorising

rentandutilitybills,jobsecuritydeclinedslightly,whichimpacted

purchasingintentamongmanyconsumerswhoarealreadycautious

aboutspending.”

Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentionsheld

steady,withmarginalimprovementsforbuyingnewclothes,buyingnew

technologyproductsandconductinghomeimprovementprojects.A

slightpullbackforsavingandinvestingintentionswasreportedinthe

secondquarter.OnefourthofMiddleEast/Africarespondentssaidthey

hadnosparecash,ariseof3percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter.

Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS


-5

0

0

-6

3

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

SAUDI ARABIA

PAKISTAN

EGYPT

SOUTH AFRICA

109

102

99

81

85

INDEXPERCENTAGE

POINT CHANGE FROM Q1

INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE


CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConfidenceincreasedinthesecondquarterinallthreesub-Saharan

Africanmarketsmeasured—Nigeria,KenyaandGhana.Nigeria’s

consumerconfidencescorewashighest,risingonepointto121,and

Ghana’sscoreincreasedthemost,jumpingsixpointsto103.Kenyaalso

reportedanoptimistic,above-the-baselineindexof111,anincreaseof

onepointinthesecondquarter.

ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof

consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey

methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport

consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries

outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets

arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.

Theoutlookforjobprospectsincreased1percentagepointeachin

Nigeria(53%)andGhana(43%),butdeclined3percentagepointsin

Kenya(54%).Eighty-onepercentofNigerianrespondentswereconfident

abouttheirpersonalfinances,butjustunderhalf(48%)believednow

wasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,66percentofrespondentsbelieved

moneymattersweregoodorexcellent,and42percentwereconfidentin

theircurrentspendingcapacity—ariseof6percentagepointsfromthe

firstquarter.Likewise,inGhana,67percentwereoptimisticabouttheir

finances(animprovementfrom62%),and36percentofrespondents

wereconfidentaboutspending.

Whilethemajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(66%inKenya,

64%inGhanaand59%inNigeria)didnothavesparecash,Ghana

reportedtheonlyimprovement,witha7percentagepointimprovement

fromthefirstquarter.Amongthosewhodidhavediscretionaryfunds,

savingwasapriorityfor90percentinKenya,79percentinNigeria

and75percentinGhana,followedbyspendingonhomeimprovement

projects(74%inNigeria,70%inKenyaand66%inGhana).

Otherspendingintentionsinclude:investinginstocks(Kenya,67%;

Ghana,48%;Nigeria,56%),buyingnewtechnologyproducts(Nigeria,

49%;Kenya,43%;Ghana,38%),spendingonout-of-homeentertainment

(Nigeria,44%;Kenya,42%;Ghana,27%)andbuyingnewclothes

(Kenya,69%;Nigeria,42%;Ghana,31%).


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN MARKETS

GHANA

KENYA

NIGERIA

97

110

120

103

111

121

Q1 2014 Q2 2014



Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2012

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION

Australia 89%

China 40%

HongKong 75%

India 11%

Indonesia 22%

Japan 80%

Malaysia 61%

NewZealand 88%

Philippines 32%

Singapore 75%

South Korea 83%

Taiwan 75%

Thailand 30%

Vietnam 34%

MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET

PENETRATION


Austria 80%

Belgium 81%

Bulgaria 51%

Croatia 71%

CzechRepublic 73%

Denmark 90%

Estonia 78%


Egypt 36%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 49%

SouthAfrica 17%

UnitedArabEmirates

71%


Canada 83%

UnitedStates 78%

MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 68%

Nigeria 64%

COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE

MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

LATIN AMERICAEUROPE

Finland 89%

France 80%

Germany 83%

Greece 53%

Hungary 65%

Ireland 77%

Israel 70%

Italy 58%

Latvia 72%

Lithuania 65%

Netherlands 93%

Norway 97%

Poland 65%

Portugal 55%

Romania 44%

Russia 48%

Serbia 56%

Slovakia 79%

Slovenia 72%

Spain 67%

Sweden 93%

Switzerland 82%

Turkey 46%

UnitedKingdom 84%

Ukraine 34%

Argentina 66%

Brazil 46%

Chile 59%

Colombia 60%

Mexico 37%

Peru 37%

Venezuela 41%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012


ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationand

measurementcompanywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketing

andconsumerinformation,televisionandothermediameasurement,

onlineintelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein

approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USAand

Diemen,theNetherlands.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/7896

ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending

IntentionswasconductedMay12–30,2014andpolledmorethan

30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,

Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.

Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased

onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet

consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6percent.ThisNielsen

surveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonline

access.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesa

minimumreportingstandardof60percentInternetpenetrationor

anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChina

ConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixed

methodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-

SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparate

mobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,Kenya

andNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobal

ConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

Nielsen global-consumer-confidence-report-q2-2014

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