Nick Paulson and Joe Glauber on Ag Trade - farmdoc€¦ · US Ag and Ag-Related Exports by Year and...
Transcript of Nick Paulson and Joe Glauber on Ag Trade - farmdoc€¦ · US Ag and Ag-Related Exports by Year and...
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Joe GlauberNick Paulson
Nick Paulson and Joe Glauber on Ag Trade
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Housekeeping• Handout available via GoToWebinar control panel• Webinar will be archived and available on farmdoc• Submit questions during the webinar • Please complete the survey after the webinar
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Joe GlauberNick Paulson
Nick Paulson and Joe Glauber on Ag Trade
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Nick Paulson
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If production or other supply chain issues related to covid-19 create potential domestic shortages, should the government intervene to limit meat exports?
o Yes, exports should be stopped
o Yes, exports should be partially limited
o No, exports should continue
o I don’t know
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Importance of Ag Export MarketsExport Share of US Production, 2017/18
78%
55%52%
48%
29%
17%10% 11%
17%22%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Cotton Sorghum Wheat Soybeans Soy Meal Corn Soy Oil Beef Chicken Pork
Source: PS&D , FAS-USDA
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43,817
36,000
33,500
32,000
16,412
4,200
61,916
24,154
22,473
18,036
16,127
5,532
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
US
Brazil
Argentina
Ukraine
ROW
Russia
Source: PS&D , FAS-USDA
World Export Market Competition
CornWorld Exports
(1000 MT) 2017 vs 2019f
41%
26%
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78,500
48,308
8,200
6,290
5,900
4,300
76,136
58,071
2,132
5,783
6,029
4,925
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Brazil
US
Argentina
ROW
Paraguay
Canada
Source: PS&D , FAS-USDA
World Export Market Competition
SoybeansWorld Exports
(1000 MT) 2017 vs 2019f
37%
31%
49%
51%
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45,406
33,500
33,500
26,807
23,000
20,500
53,228
41,431
23,383
24,655
22,000
17,775
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
ROW
Russia
EU
US
Canada
Ukraine
Source: PS&D , FAS-USDA
World Export Market Competition
WheatWorld Exports
(1000 MT) 2017 vs 2019f
29%
25%
13%
15%
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15,000
11,339
8,600
3,300
1,200
1,200
16,279
10,734
4,174
5,182
3,915
1,300
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
US
ROW
Brazil
India
Australia
Mali
Source: PS&D , FAS-USDA
World Export Market Competition
CottonWorld Exports
(1000 bales)2017 vs 2019f
37%
35%
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3% 4% 4% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 12% 15% 18% 17% 22% 22% 20% 18% 20% 18% 9% 12%
169
154
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018China ROW
US Ag and Ag-Related Exports by Year and Value$
Billi
ons
Rest of the World
China
2017 BaselineUS Exports to China:$19.5 billion ag$24 billion ag and ag-related
Value-based commitmentsIncrease of $12.5b in 2020Increase of $19.5b in 2021
ChallengesLarge commitments“Market conditions”Strong dollarCovid-19
Phase 1 Agreement with China
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$12,224
$3,193
$1,232 $978 $945 $838 $662 $576 $351 $340
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
Soybeans ForestProducts
FishProducts
Cotton Hides &Skins
CoarseGrains (ex.
corn)
Pork & PorkProducts
DairyProducts
Wheat Hay
$ m
illio
nWhat Will China Buy?US Agricultural Exports to China in 2017: Top 10 by Value
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$267
$243
$226
$162
$142 $139
$134
$131
$117
$86
$83 $62
$42
$36 $34
$34
$31 $30
$27
$25
$24
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
Feeds & FoddersTree Nuts
Fresh FruitTobacco
CornPrepared Food
Processed FruitPlanting Seeds
Processed VegetablesWine & Beer
EthanolDistillers Grains
Veg Oils (ex. soybean)Poultry (ex. eggs)
Snack FoodsNon-Alc Bev. (ex. juices)
Beef & Beef ProductsBreakfast Cereals
Chocolate & Cocoa ProductsPulses
Soybean Oil
$ million
What Will China Buy?US Agricultural Exports to China in 2017Next 21 by Value
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Will China meet their Phase 1 import commitments for US ag products in 2020?
o Yes, commitments will be met
o No, but purchases will be above 2017 levels
o No, and purchases will be below 2017 levels
o I don’t know
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Joe GlauberSenior Research Fellow at IFPRI
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Outline
China and Phase 1
Prospects post-covid-19
Issues
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US agricultural trade152
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020fFiscal year
Source: USDA/FAS, GATS
Billion USD
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US agricultural trade to China
26
22
10
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020f
Billion USD
Source: USDA/FAS, GATS
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Phase 1 agreementCh. 3 Trade in Food and Agricultural Products
• Addresses NTBs affecting a wide range of productions– dairy and infant formula– poultry, beef, and pork products– pet food
• Compliance with WTO ruling on domestic support and TRQ administration (wheat, corn, rice)
• Speed and streamline biotech approval process
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Phase 1 agreementCh. 6 Expanding Trade => ag imports
• $12.5 billion above 2017 baseline in 2020
• $19.5 billion above 2017 baseline in 2021
• purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations and that “market conditions…may dictate the timing of purchases”
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Phase 1: questions• What is meant by agricultural products?
– Seafood, distilled spirits, ethanol, processed food and wine
• Commitments are value not volume based.
• What is the baseline? – Calendar 2017 ag products ~$21 billion, with seafood, ethanol & distilled spirits– Agreement considers baseline at $24 billion
• How valued?– US exports valued fob US– China imports valued cif China– Agreement will use data from both China and US to monitor
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FAPRI: Effects of Phase 1 on exports to ChinaDifference from 2017
Source: FAPRI, 2020 Baseline
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Corn Soybeans Wheat Sorghum DDGS
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Thou
sand
Met
ric To
ns
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FAPRI: Effects of Phase 1 on exports to ChinaDifference from 2017
Source: FAPRI, 2020 Baseline
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Pork Beef Poultry
2020/21 2021/22
Thou
sand
Met
ric To
ns
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FAPRI: Impact on total US soybean exports
490 1,534 490 1,561
1,402 423 1,423 427
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
No deal Phase 1 No deal Phase 1
2020/21 2021/22
Million bu
Rest of World
China
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FAPRI: Effects of Phase 1 on Net Farm Incomein Billion Dollars
2020 2021 2022
No deal 98.9 94.9 92.5
Phase 1 105.9 102.0 98.6
Difference 7.0 7.1 6.1
Source: FAPRI 2020 baseline
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Still early but sales are lagging…• For Q1, China reports ag product imports of $5 billion
(import value). Need about 2x that value in each quarter Q2, Q3, and Q4 to reach target of $36.5 billion
• Encouraging sales of pork, cotton, wheat, corn and sorghum, but pace is very slow
• Soybean export pace lagging and won’t likely pick up until late summer
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Soybean Total Commitments(outstanding sales + shipments)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: USDA/FAS Export Sales Week Number
2018/19
2015/16
2016/17
2014/15
2017/18
2019/20
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Impacts of Covid-19 on trade
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Impacts of Covid-19• Direct impact on health
– Farm labor (F&V production, dairies)– Meat processing
• Impact of containment policies– Closure of non-essential businesses– Shelter in place policies– Impact on motor vehicle fuel use– Disruption of supply chains; increased costs– Rising retail prices as producer prices fall
• Recessionary impacts on income
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Decline in global goods trade: 2009 vs 2008 levels
-12.1%
-35.8%
-19.9%
-1.8%
-5.4%
-15.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures
ValueVolume
Source: WTO, World Trade Statistical Review, 2019
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IMF forecasts2019 2020f 2021f
World output 2.9 -3.0 5.8Advanced economies 1.7 -6.1 4.5US 2.3 -5.9 4.7
Emerging Markets 3.7 -1.0 6.6China 6.1 1.2 9.2India 4.2 1.9 7.4Brazil 1.1 -5.3 2.9Mexico -0.1 -6.6 3.0
Global trade 0.9 -11.0 8.4Source: IMF WEO, April 2020
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WTO: Estimated global GDP impacts
Scenario Work at home 2020 2021V shape 3 months -4.8% 4.2%U shape 6 months -9.2% 8.1%L shape 12 months -11.1% 2.8%
Source: WTO April 2020Time
GDP
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Estimated impact of covid-19 on global trade in 2020 given various recovery scenarios
-6.5 -7.4 -8.2 -8.1
-11.2-12.6
-20.7
-16.5
-12.7 -13.4
-30
-20.4
-30
-20
-10
0Agricultural products Processed foods Manufacturing goods Total
V shape
U shape
L shape
Source: WTO April 2020
Perc
ent
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Issues and challenges• Implementation of USMCA
• China– Implementation of Phase 1– Phase 2 negotiations
• US-Japan negotiations Phase 2
• US-EU negotiations
• Brexit
• WTO – Fate of dispute settlement– US ag won over 80% of
cases it has taken to WTO– Export restrictions on rise
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