Nick Lane, mobileSQUARED, UK mobile update

the mobile landscape

Nick Lane, chief strategy analyst,

All data/forecasts contained in this presentation copyright of mobileSQUARED unless stated otherwise. Data from Mobile Consumer Trends database

About mobileSQUARED

Specialists in mobile consumer engagement

We do it using Mobile Consumer Trends, the only forward-looking mobile consumer forecasts, based on extensive ongoing qual/quan mobile market and consumer research.

We create the mobile market forecasts

Then segment the data by

• Advertising• Apps• Internet• Messaging• Commerce

Then by

• Device type• Age• Gender• Location• Socio-economics

Then we forecast

How we do it

Our view of the UK mobile market

74,000,000

76,000,000

78,000,000

80,000,000

82,000,000

84,000,000

86,000,000

88,000,000

4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16

Total UK mobile subscriptions

Number of subscriptions will increase from 82.9 million end-2011 to 86.02 million by the end of 2016

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10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

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90,000,000

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Featurephones/other

Other smartphones

Microsoft

Symbian

BlackBerry

Android

iPhone

Featurephones still dominate but ...

45.8 million

...NOT FOR LONG

4 out of 5 phones shipped during 2011 are smartphones

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10,000,000

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40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

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4Q09 4Q10 4Q11

Featurephones/other

Other smartphones

Microsoft

Symbian

BlackBerry

Android

iPhone

Smartphones to overtake featurephones

in 4Q2012

Arise Sir Smartphone

Smartphones experiencing unprecedented growth in the UK

UK mobile market 4Q2009UK mobile market 4Q2010

Smartphone penetration: 14% in 200924% in 2010

39% end 2011

UK smartphone growth

Smartphone

UK mobile market 4Q2011

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40,000,000

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60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16

Legacy

Featurephones

Other

Microsoft

Symbian

BlackBerry

Android

iPhone

Platform size by volume up to 2016:1. Android2. iOs3. Blackberry

Android overtakes iPhone in 2011 as the biggest

Android CAGR 86%

iPhone growth stabilising

2011

According to Mobile Consumer Trends

Key usage numbers (4Q2011)

Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%

App users 22.02 million 33%

Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%

M-commerce 16.37 million 24%

Opt-in marketing 14 million 21%

Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds

BIGGER

Key usage numbers (4Q2011)

Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%

App users 22.02 million 33%

Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%

M-commerce 16.37 million 24%

Opt-in marketing 14 million 21%

Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds

UK mobile usage landscape 2Q...

Apps: 6%M-comm: 6%

Mob Int.: 1.3 mil.

Mob Int: 5%M-comm: 5%


Total mobadreach: 2.5 mil.

Apps: 18%M-comm: 22%

Apps: 7%M-comm: 7%

Mob Int: 2%Apps: 2%Mobad

conversion: 300,142

Mob Int: 10%Mobad

conversion: 514,862


Apps: 1%M-comm: 1%

Mobad conversion: 65,250

Mob Int: 5%Apps: 5%

M-comm: 5%

Apps: 14%Total mobadreach: 16%


... And 4Q

Apps: 1.43 mil.M-comm: 1.2 mil.

Mob Int.: 6.5%

Total mobadreach: 26%



Mob Int: 562,055Apps: 473,363

Mobad conversion: 408,652

Mob Int: 2.7 mil.Mobad

conversion: 12%

Apps: 1.3%M-comm: 207,927Mobad conversion:

1.3%

Apps: 3.11 mil.Total mobad

reach: 2.12 mil.

Mob Int: 1.88 mil.M-comm: 929,828

Out with the old

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2,000,000

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6,000,000

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12,000,000

iPhone Android BlackBerry Symbian Microsoft Others

Smartphone market, 4Q11

United Kingdom of Android

7.5 millionNumber of Android mobile internet

users in 4Q2011

1.39 mil.

338,611

858,916

1.06 mil.

Android app users

6.8 millionNumber of Android app users in

4Q2011

1.26 mil.

308,116

781,225

965,339

490,526

496,675

App users 2Q11

FEMALEMALE

•Number of females using apps has now overtaken male usage

•The gender gap will now start to widen, but...

App user trends 4Q11H

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How appealing are apps?

App users by region, 3Q2011

iPhone app users by region, 4Q2011

322,415

463,248 840,709

513,290

1.32 mil.

7.15 milTotal iPhone users 4Q11

Mobile advertising

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on

siv

e b

row

se

r,

PC

pu

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ase

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Total mobile advertising reachM

ob

ile

ad

vert

isin

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rea

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by

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art

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esp

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Mobile ad conversion twice as likely in males vs. females

Where is this all heading?

There’s money in this

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16,000,000

18,000,000

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1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

M-commerce users by device

Non-smartphone

Other smartphones

Android

iPhone

16.3 millionUsers of m-commerce in 4Q2011

10.2 millionUsers of m-commerce in 3Q2012

72%of m-commerce users

on smartphones in 3Q2012

Male vs. female adoption

TIME

CO

NSU

MER

AD

OP

TIO

N

4Q2011

MOBILE INTERNET

MOBILE COMMERCE

FEMALE

MALE

Service adoption delay

Central, 4Q11

Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.

0

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400000

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800000

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1200000

iPhone Android Other

App users – 3.11 mil.

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M-commerce – 2.5 mil.

0

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200000

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700000


Central, 4Q11

Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.

50.1% female / 49.9% male

18-24 – 282,01635-44 - 416,57355-64 – 346,530

App users – 3.11 mil.

51% female / 49% male

25-34 – 659,529 total25-34 – 330,424 female25-34 – 329,105 male

M-commerce – 2.5 mil.

Male – 1,323,051Female – 1,063,647

18-24 – 500,493

Conclusion

Internet and apps comparable in mobile usage

Males more receptive to mobile advertising

Android on a march, but

Greater interaction/engagement on iPhone

Smartphones to overtake featurephones in 2012

Growth will only accelerate

Nick LaneChief strategy [email protected]+44 118 977 6902

Source: Mobile Consumer Trends, in association with

mailto:[email protected]

Nick Lane, mobileSQUARED, UK mobile update

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