Nick Baldock Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd
description
Transcript of Nick Baldock Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd
Quantifying risk through a rigorous analytical approach to the real world challenge of offshore wind construction – downtime, constraints and
sequencing.
Nick BaldockGarrad Hassan and Partners Ltd
Contents
Problems Facing Offshore Wind Farm
Construction
Garrad Hassan Approach
Validation Case Study
Conclusions
Summary
Contractual interface
risks
Few EPC offerings
Complex&
costly
Marginal economics
Risk
Offshore Wind Farm Construction
Offshore Wind Farm Construction
Time & Budget Contingency
Optimal Vessel Strategies
Supply Chain Risks
Assessing Weather Delay
Capturing Project
Restrictions
Managing Contractors
Questions?
Garrad Hassan Approach
O2C (Optimise Offshore Construction) Model - Structure
DEFINEOPERATIONS
LONG-TERMWEATHER DATA
TIME DOMAINSIMULATIONS
OPERATION DURATION
DISTRIBUTIONS
DEFINESEQUENCE RULES
DEFINE PROJECT
DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS
DEFINE BUILDSEQUENCE
MONTE CARLO ENGINE
PERTURBSEQUENCE
OPTIMAL SEQUENCE
TOTALDURATION
DISTRIBUTION
STAGE 1
STAGE 2
Stage 1 – Time Domain Simulations
- Operation Duration Distribution
- For each defined offshore operation
- Monthly basis
DEFINEOPERATIONS
LONG-TERMWEATHER DATA
TIME DOMAINSIMULATIONS
OPERATION DURATION
DISTRIBUTIONS
Monopile & Transition Piece Installation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Operation Duration [hrs]
Itera
tions
Ideal Duration 50hrs
Garrad Hassan Approach
O2C (Optimise Offshore Construction) Model - Structure
DEFINEOPERATIONS
LONG-TERMWEATHER DATA
TIME DOMAINSIMULATIONS
OPERATION DURATION
DISTRIBUTIONS
DEFINESEQUENCE RULES
DEFINE PROJECT
DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS
DEFINE BUILDSEQUENCE
MONTE CARLO ENGINE
PERTURBSEQUENCE
OPTIMAL SEQUENCE
TOTALDURATION
DISTRIBUTION
STAGE 1
STAGE 2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Project Duration
No.
Ite
ratio
ns
- Project Build Duration Distribution
- For each defined activity sequence
• Weather Downtime
• Logistical Downtime
Stage 2 – Programme Modelling & Optimisation
DEFINESEQUENCE RULES
DEFINE PROJECT
DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS
DEFINE BUILDSEQUENCE
MONTE CARLO ENGINE
PERTURBSEQUENCE
OPTIMAL SEQUENCE
TOTALDURATION
DISTRIBUTION
Total Project Build Duration Distribution
Model Validation Case Study
Egmond ann Zee Offshore Wind Farm
Egmond ann Zee Offshore Wind Farm
- Modelled Construction Operations:
• Monopile & TP Installation - Svanen (36 Units)
• Turbine Erection – A2SEA ‘Sea Energy’ (36 Units)
• Export Cable Installation (3 Units)
• Inter-Array Cable Installation (33 Units)
• Turbine Commissioning
• Wind Farm Reliability Testing
Validation Case Study
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 1 Results
- Monopile Foundation Installation Duration Distributions (Single Unit per Trip)
Duration [hrs] (March)
Duration [hrs] (June)
Duration [hrs] (September)
Duration [hrs] (January)
Iter
atio
ns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
0
200
400
600
800
1000
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
0
200
400
600
800
1000
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
0
200
400
600
800
1000
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 1 Results
- Turbine Erection Duration Distributions (2 Turbine Units per Trip)
Duration [hrs] (March)
Duration [hrs] (June)
Duration [hrs] (September)
Duration [hrs] (December)
Iter
atio
ns
Egmond ann Zee Case StudyStage 2 Egmond ann Zee project definition
- Segregated into 10 construction zones
- Single contractor per zone at any one time
- Construction sequence:
1. Foundation Installation
2. Sub-Sea Cable Installation
3. Cable Terminations
4. Wind Turbine Erection
5. Cable Testing
6. Wind Turbine Testing
7. Wind Turbine Commissioning
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 2 Results
- Monopile & Transition Piece Installation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Operation Duration (Days)
Itera
tions
O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration
Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration
O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration4 Days
P(50) P(90)
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 2 Results
- Wind Turbine Erection
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Operation Duration (Days)
Itera
tions
O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration
Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration
O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration65 Days
P(50) P(90)
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 2 Results
- Wind Turbine Erection (without logistic downtime)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Operation Duration (Days)
Itera
tions
O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration
Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration
O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration1 Day
P(50) P(90)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Project Duration (Days)
Itera
tions
Egmond ann Zee Case Study
Stage 2 Results
- Total Project Build Duration
O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration
Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration
O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration38 Days
P(50) P(90)
Egmond ann Zee Case StudyConclusions
- Good level of agreement (weather downtime modelling)
- Modelling of project zones results in artificial delay (Egmond)
- Modelling as an EPC contract would result in a better agreement
- Complete project build duration within model’s P(50) to P(90) limits
SummaryThe value of O2C Modelling
- Allows resourcing sensitivity studies
- Allows cost benefit analysis
- Allows developer to assess & reduce contract interface risks
- Importantly allows for a novel visualisation of the project build
Thank You for Your AttentionNick Baldock - Garrad Hassan
Main Stand Hall 2. No. 2260
Contact details:
[email protected] Bristol (UK)
[email protected] Bristol (UK)
[email protected] Paris (France)
References:
Offshore Wind Farm Egmond ann Zee General Report,