NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University schuckers@stlawu
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NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University [email protected] Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings Vancouver, BC August 2, 2010 Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
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NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University [email protected]. Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings Vancouver, BC August 2, 2010. DATA. Based on all NHL regular season shots 08-09 and 09-10 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of NHL Shot Probability Maps Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University schuckers@stlawu
NHL Shot Probability MapsMichael Schuckers
St. Lawrence [email protected]
Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings
Vancouver, BCAugust 2, 2010
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
DATA
• Based on all NHL regular season shots 08-09 and 09-10– Excludes penalty shots, empty net shots,
shootouts• Spatial mapping of probability of a goal • Offensive Zone: Blue line to Goal line– [Blue line at left, Goal at Right]
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
League Average (Darker is higher)
Blue Line Goal Line
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Goal probability maps
• Maps are differences from league-wide average probability of a goal at a given location– Red above average (Good for shooters)– Blue below average (Good for goalies)– White is league average
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Difference from League Averagefor each of the 5 holes/zones
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Forwards
Red is above average (GOOD)Blue is below average (BAD)
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Goalies
Red is above average (BAD)Blue is below average (GOOD)
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Martin Broudeur – Goalie – New Jersey DevilsGO
AL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
GOAL
Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)
Shot Prob in Offensive Zone( A. Niemi )
-20
0
20
40 50 60 70 80
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
GOAL
