NGAO Cost Estimation GuidelinesNGAO Cost Estimation Guidelines

Richard DekanyRichard Dekany

January 25, 2008January 25, 2008

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NGAO Cost Estimation Guidelines Document

• KAON 546• Describes

– SD Phase WBS 4.1.2 Cost Estimation Process

– Cost Estimation Methodology

– Risk Contingency Methodology

– Includes Level 3 WBS Reference

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Cost Estimation Process

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Completed cost estimate worksheets should be considered project confidential and be emailed to Rich Dekany, and not posted to TWiki.

Inadvertent disclosure of our planning figures could seriously compromise future negotiations with subcontractor and vendors.

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Work Breakdown Structure (Level 3)

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Work Breakdown Structure (Level 4, partial)

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Level WBSElement Title Resonsible Cost Estimator Consultant 11 NGAO Next Generation AO Program2 1 Design3 1.1 Proposal Richard Dekany3 1.2 System Design Richard Dekany3 1.3 Preliminary Design Peter Wizinowich3 1.4 Detailed Design Peter Wizinowich2 2 Management3 2.1 Planning & Contracting Peter Wizinowich3 2.2 Project Management & Meetings Peter Wizinowich3 2.3 Tracking & Reporting Peter Wizinowich3 2.4 Proposals & Fundraising Peter Wizinowich3 2.5 Science Advisory Team Claire Max2 3 Systems Engineering3 3.1 Requirements Maintenance Erik Johansson3 3.2 System Architecture Richard Dekany3 3.3 Modeling & Analysis Richard Dekany3 3.4 Performance Budget Maintenance Richard Dekany3 3.5 External Interface Control Erik Johansson3 3.6 Configuration Management Erik Johansson3 3.7 Documentation Control Erik Johansson2 4 AO System Development3 4.1 AO Enclosure Don Gavel Jim Bell3 4.2 Optomechanical Don Gavel4 4.2.1 Rotator Don Gavel Reni Kupke4 4.2.2 Optical Relays Don Gavel Reni Kupke4 4.2.3 Optical Switchyard Don Gavel Reni Kupke4 4.2.4 AO Support Structure Don Gavel Jim Bell4 4.2.5 LGS Wavefront Sensors Viswa Velur4 4.2.6 NGS Wavefront Sensor Viswa Velur4 4.2.7 Low Order Wavefront Sensors Richard Dekany4 4.2.8 Truth Wavefront Sensors Viswa Velur4 4.2.9 DM's and Tip/Tilt Stages Don Gavel Reni Kupke4 4.2.10 Tip/Tilt Vibration Mitigation Peter Wizinowich4 4.2.11 Acquisition Cameras Viswa Velur4 4.2.12 Atmospheric Dispersion Correctors Don Gavel Reni Kupke

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Level WBSElement Title Resonsible Cost Estimator Consultant 13 4.3 Alignment, Calibration, and Diagnostics4 4.3.1 Simulator Chris Neyman4 4.3.2 System Alignment Tools Chris Neyman Reni Kupke4 4.3.3 Atmospheric Profiler Richard Dekany4 4.3.4 PSF Monitoring Camera Viswa Velur4 4.3.5 DM Interferometer Chris Neyman3 4.4 Non-real-time Control Erik Johansson3 4.5 Real-time Control Don Gavel3 4.6 AO System Lab I&T Peter Wizinowich3 4.7 AO System Acceptance Peter Wizinowich2 5 Laser System Development3 5.1 Laser Enclosure Chris Neyman3 5.2 Laser Sean Adkins3 5.3 Laser Launch Facility Chris Neyman Viswa Velur3 5.4 Laser Safety Systems Chris Neyman3 5.5 Laser System Control Chris Neyman3 5.6 Laser System Lab I&T Chris Neyman3 5.7 Laser System Acceptance Peter Wizinowich2 6 Science Operations Tools Development3 6.1 Observing Setup David le Mignant3 6.2 User Interfaces David le Mignant3 6.3 Astronomer Planning David le Mignant3 6.4 System Control & Interfaces Erik Johansson David le Mignant3 6.5 Performance Monitoring David le Mignant3 6.6 Automation and Optimization David le Mignant3 6.7 User Documentation David le Mignant2 7 Telescope & Summit Engineering3 7.1 Telescope Performance Peter Wizinowich3 7.2 Infrastructure Mods for AO Chris Neyman Jim Bell3 7.3 Infrastructure Mods for Laser Chris Neyman Jim Bell3 7.4 OSIRIS Modifications Sean Adkins3 7.5 Interferometer and OHANA Mods Chris Neyman3 7.6 Old AO/Laser Removal Peter Wizinowich Jim Bell3 7.7 Laser Enclosure Integration Chris Neyman Jim Bell3 7.8 AO Enclosure Integration Chris Neyman Jim Bell2 8 Telescope Integration & Test3 8.1 AO System Install + I&T Peter Wizinowich3 8.2 Laser System Install + I&T Chris Neyman3 8.3 LGS AO System On-sky I&T David le Mignant3 8.4 Performance Characterization Richard Dekany3 8.5 Science Verification David le Mignant2 9 Operations Transition3 9.1 Operations Personnel Training David le Mignant3 9.2 Operations Acceptance David le Mignant

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WBS*: Estimate Date: Links:WBS Title*:

Phase*: Cost Estimating PlanResponsible Estimator*: Input Cheat Sheet

Estimators*:* - Required Fields

LaborBOE*:

Resource Estimate Type Hours12

Non-LaborBOE*:

CategoryEstimate

Type Unit CostNumber of

units12

TravelBOE*:

Trip Type DurationNumber of

Trips12

Risk FactorsFactor % Basis*:

TOTAL: 0%

DescriptionExpense Item

Scoping Options:

Cost*:

Misc Comments:

Override:

Technical*:

Schedule*:

NGAO Cost Estimating Worksheet

Element Scope / WBS Dictionary Entry*:

Deliverables*:

+

+

+

Cost Estimating Worksheet

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WBS Dictionary Definition

• Describes what the work package is and what is is not• Example:

– WBS Element 4.3.2 - System Alignment Tools• This element includes the effort to identify requirements, specify types and

quantities of optomechanical alignment tools, and procure such equipment as needed to support

AO System Lab I&T process (WBS 4.6), AO System Install + I&T (WBS 8.1), andLGS AO System On-Sky I&T (WBS 8.3)

It includes procurement of a Cn2(h) monitor but does not include expected

subcontract management of the same, which is included in WBS 2.1, Planning and Contracting.

It does not include development of detailed alignment plans, which is included in WBS 4.6.

It does not include any alignment tools for the Laser Launch Facility, which are included in WBS 5.3.

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Working Project Phase Durations

NGAO Project Phase Phase Code Duration Preliminary Design PD 18 monthsDetailed Design DD 20 monthsFull Scale Development FSD 24 monthsDelivery and Commissioning DC 18 months

These durations may be revised for subsequent cost estimate refinements

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Estimate Type

• Direct Historical Data - The use of costs demonstrated in immediate, applicable history for the same product or service.

• Catalog Prices - A known, advertised price from a potential supplier for a specific product or service.• Vendor Quote - A quote from a potential supplier within the program estimate. Note: although useful to

refining our current cost estimates, a balance must be found that satisfies project needs while not alienating vendors who often commit considerable resources for the generation of detailed price quotes.

• Cost Estimating Relationship – An estimate based on parametric relationships, analogy to another program, or by “Rule of Thumb.”

• Parametric Estimate – A statistical model based on characteristics and costs of multiple previous observations.• Estimate by Analogy - Scaling of costs demonstrated in previous observations using subjective or

objective factors.• Rule of Thumb - General cost relationships demonstrated by informal studies of past programs.

• Engineering Estimate – An estimate based on the judgment of a recognized authority.

Estimate Type Input CodeDirect Historical Data (“done before”) DHCatalog Prices CPVendor Quotes VQCost Estimating Relationship CEREngineering Estimate EE

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Labor Resource CodesResource Input CodeTechnical Functions:Post Doc PostDocTechnician TechJunior Scientist / Engineer JunSciAssociate Scientist / Engineer AssoSciInformation Tech. Specialist ITSenior Scientist / Engineer SrSciLead Scientist / Engineer LdSci (use sparingly)

Business Functions:Administrative I AsstAdminAdministrative II AssoAdmin

Management Functions:Subsystem Manager SubMgrProject Manager ProjMgr

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Non-Labor Expense Codes

Category Input CodeEquipment EQPMaterial MATSubcontract SUBShipping SHIPOther Direct Cost ODC

• Material describes raw materials (e.g. steel), expendables (e.g. cryogens, cleaning agents), etc.

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Travel Codes

Destination Input CodeIntra - California CALIFHawaii - California HAWAIIInternational (Origination/Destination unspecific) INTEROther locations not included in above list OTHER

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Miscellaneous

• Travel costs per WBS element should only include those costs directly needed for completion of that work element– Team meetings, conference travel included in WBS 2.2

• WBS 1.3 and 1.4 will include those activities not described elsewhere in the WBS for the PD and DD phases– This may involve risk mitigation activities, additional trade studies, or

contingency planning

• Software licenses– SolidWorks, Zemax, development kits, OS license fees, etc. should be

costed at the appropriate Level 3 WBS element only (TBC)

Or

– SolidWorks, Zemax, development kits, OS license fees, etc. will be included for all design work within WBS 1.3 and 1.4 (TBC)

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Questions / Discussion Notes

• Discussion notes from TM#13 will go here