NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/...

25
NFO Period: 25 th April 2016 to 9 th May 2016

Transcript of NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/...

Page 1: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

NFO Period: 25th

April 2016 to 9th

May 2016

user
MW LOGO
Page 2: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Valuations-Invest in

Equities

Macro-Economics-

Adjustment largely

complete

Sentiments-Negative

due to Non-

Fundamental reasons

Triggers-Oil Stabilising

& Reforms.

Equity

Framework

Investment Framework: Start

Allocation towards Equity

Page 3: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Years when FII

selling was

high

S&P BSE

SENSEX

Returns %

S&P BSE SENSEX

Returns% in the

next 1 year

1998 -17 60.9

2002 3 72.9

2008 -52 81.0

2011 -24 25.7

2015 -5 ?

Buy When FIIs Are Selling

Because…

FII: Foreign institutional investors. Data Source: Bloomberg; Past performance may or may not sustain in future; Returns are 1 calendar year absolute

returns.

Traders loose

money

Investors have

made money by

investing in such

time

Whenever FIIs

Sell

Page 4: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Equity Valuation Index

Book Profits/ Stay Invested

Invest Systematically

Invest in Equities

Aggressively Invest in Equities

Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product

Our equity valuation index indicates an opportunity, invest lump-

sum in equities.

Composite Index, 96.12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16

Composite Index

Page 5: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

India moving from Vicious to

Virtuous Economic Cycle

Past

Higher Inflation

Higher Interest Rates

Depressed Demand

Lower Capacity Utilization

No Incremental Investment

Supply Constraints

Present

Lower Inflation

Falling Interest Rates

Pick up in Demand

Better Capacity Utilization

Higher Investment

Better Supply Response

Page 6: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Emerging Markets Trading at

Attractive Valuations

Source: MSCI PB:Price to Book; JP - Japan

• Emerging markets are trading at valuations very near to what was

witnessed during the last three lows in the last 15 years.

Page 7: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Emerging Markets have higher

upside

Data Source: CLSA; PB: Price to Book Ratio

Page 8: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Large caps are available at discount

to Mid caps

Source: MFI; Data as of Mar 01, 2016

19.157

25.325

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

PE

Sensex & BSE Midcap PE – 90 Days Moving Average

Overvalued Zones

Page 9: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Large Caps trading at a discount to

Mid Caps

• Large Caps are trading at a discount of 28% to Mid Caps

currently from a premium of 7% seen in Feb-15

Source: Motilal Oswal Securities Research

Page 10: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Domestic Cyclical Stocks Are At

A Discount To Defensive Stocks

Source: UBS Securities; Cyclical: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Industrials, IT, Material

Defensive: Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Telecom & Utilities

Domestic cyclical stocks could gain in tandem with economic revival

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

Ap

r-06

Oct-06

Ap

r-07

Oct-07

Ap

r-08

Oct-08

Ap

r-09

Oct-09

Ap

r-10

Oct-10

Ap

r-11

Oct-11

Ap

r-12

Oct-12

Ap

r-13

Oct-13

Ap

r-14

Oct-14

Ap

r-15

Oct-15

Ap

r-16

Cyclicals

Defensives

Defensive vs. Cyclical Stocks

Price to Equity Ratio

Page 11: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Current theme: Domestic Economic

Recovery

Factors that could boost cyclical stocks

Expected economic revival (GDP, Corporate Earnings)

Rise in Government Expenditure on Roads, Railways,

Infrastructure and Rural Development

Falling Interest Rates

Reasonable Valuations

Page 12: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Sectors that could benefit from

Domestic Cyclical Economic Recovery

These sectors could benefit from cyclical growth in the

economy and are available at reasonable valuations

Construction

Projects

Cement

Banks

Page 13: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Banks

Can benefit from Falling Interest Rates

Can gain from expected Cyclical Economic

Growth

Could benefit from increased Government

Expenditure on Rural and Infrastructure

Development

At Attractive Valuations

Banks

Page 14: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Banking sector can benefit from

Lower Interest Rates

In the past, bank stocks have benefitted whenever interest rates fell

Data Source: MFI, Bloomberg; Data as of Feb 1, 2016; Interest Rate represents 10-Year Benchmark Government Bond Yield

Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future.

Nif

ty B

an

k I

nterest R

ates

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

200

5200

10200

15200

20200

25200

Bank Stocks & Interest Rate movements

NIFTY Bank Interest rates

Banking stocks have seen an uptick

after the recent rate cut by RBI

Page 15: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Banking Sector – Opportunities

with Falling Interest Rates

Lower

Interest Rates

Economic

Recovery

Improvement

in Credit

Growth

Increase in

banks’ top-

line

We believe banks’ asset quality is expected to improve due to:

Efforts taken to revive power and metal sectors that contribute to

a major portion of non-performing assets

The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to improve the asset quality of

the overall banking sector

Page 16: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Cement

Cement

Companies

Demand Seen Improving due to

government focus on infrastructure

and rural development

Improvement in demand coupled

with lower capacity expansion could

improve utilisation

Subdued raw material prices and

stable cement prices could improve

margins

Reasonable Valuations

Page 17: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Highway Projects

Awarded (Km) Length Completed Km/Day

FY12 9,900 5,000 14

FY13 2,000 5,948 16

FY14 3,621 4,280 12

FY15 7,980 4,410 12

FY16 Target 10,000 6,325 17

Rise in Road Construction Could Boost Demand For Cement Sector

Government targets to double the pace of road construction to

30 km/day in the medium term

Data Source: IDFC Securities

Cement: Demand Seen Improving

Increase in expansion of railway corridors could also benefit the sector

Page 18: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Cement Prices Inching Up

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

Cement Prices in North India

225

235

245

255

265

275

Central India

Rise in Cement Prices indicates increase in infrastructure development activity.

Data Source: IIFL Holdings Ltd.

Page 19: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Capacity Addition On The Wane

Data Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, IDFC Securities

60

70

80

90

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Capacity Utilisation at multi year low

31.4

23.3

56.9

26.2

21.8 21.4

15.5

26.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Capacity Addition mostly over

Demand and Production could increase without the need for further

capacity expansion as currently, capacity utilisation is less than 70%

Page 20: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Construction

Construction

Increased Government Expenditure

on Roads, Railways, and Defence

sectors

Building blocks in place for a

steady and gradual recovery

Announcement of new projects

could improve utilisation and

bottom-lines

Page 21: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Use of Derivatives to limit market

downside

90 - 95% of portfolio

invested in stocks

5 - 8% of portfolio

invested in Put

Options*

Domestic

Cyclical Stocks

Interest Rate

Cyclical Stocks

Equity Market

Returns -16% -8% 10% 14%

Portfolio Returns -2.63% -2.63% 7.85% 12.01%

Illustration on Market Returns & Portfolio Returns under different market conditions*:

Limits downside during market fall

Returns in CAGR terms.

Captures reasonable gains during market upside

*The figures in the above table are for illustrative purpose and to explain the concept of investment in derivatives in stock

markets only. The above illustration is based on 92% of the portfolio invested in stocks and 8% of the portfolio invested in

put options. The negative portfolio returns in the illustration are due to premium paid to buy put options.

Page 22: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Investment Strategy

Investment Style

Value Blend Growth

Larg

e

Siz

e

Mid

S

mall

20 High Conviction Large Cap Stocks#

Portfolio will be designed to limit downside risk, while still

capturing significant part of the equity upside

Sector Agnostic* Approach

# The No. of Stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual No. may go up and down depending on than

prevailing market conditions at the time of investment. The fund may invest upto 20% into Midcap stocks depending on the discretion of

the Fund Managers.*Neutral towards selection of sectors.

Page 23: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Scheme Features

Type of scheme A Close ended equity scheme( 1099 Days)

Investment Objective The investment objective of the Scheme is to provide

capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity

related securities that are likely to benefit from recovery in

the Indian economy.

However, there can be no assurance that the investment

objectives of the Scheme will be realized.

Options ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund - Series 5 – Growth

Option & Dividend Option

ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund - Series 5 - Direct

Plan – Growth Option & Dividend Option

Minimum Application Amt. Rs.5,000 (plus in multiples of Rs.10 thereafter)

Entry & Exit Load Not Applicable

Benchmark Index S&P BSE 500 Index

Fund Managers* George Joseph & Atul Patel

*Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities

Page 24: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund

Series - 5

*Dividends will be declared subject to availability of distributable surplus and approval from Trustees.

# The No. of Stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual No. may go up and down depending on than

prevailing market conditions at the time of investment. The fund may invest upto 20% into Midcap stocks depending on the discretion of

the Fund Managers.

3 years (1099 days) close ended equity

fund

20 High Conviction Large Cap Stocks#

Aim to capture profits by selling equities

or using derivatives

Declaring regular dividends*

Page 25: NFO Period: 25th thApril 2016 to 9 May 2016 PPT.pdf · *Mr. Shalya Shah for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities . ICICI Prudential India Recovery Fund Series - 5 *Dividends

Statutory Details & Risk Factors

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Disclaimer: All figures and data given in the document are dated unless stated otherwise. In the preparation of the material

contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house.

Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its

affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in

this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or

completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain

words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are

“forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to

risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general

economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or

investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign

exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc.

The AMC (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, the trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not

liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential,

as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully

responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.

The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this presentation do not constitute any recommendation of the same and ICICI Prudential

Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s)/stock(s). Past performance may or may not be sustained

in the future. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the

scheme. Please refer to the SID for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors.

Investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial

implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.