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Newspaper Extinction Timeline
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Transcript of Newspaper Extinction Timeline
Newspaper extinction timeline
• Media strategy• Thought leadership content• Scenario planning
Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence
Created by Ross Dawson
www.futureexploration.net
— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas
When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017
UK, Iceland 2019
Canada, Norway 2020
Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021
Australia, Hong Kong 2022
Denmark 2023
New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024
Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025
South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026
Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027
Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028
France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029
Germany, Estonia 2030
Japan, Metro China 2031
Hungary, Lithuania 2032
Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033
Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034
Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035
Russia, Turkey 2036
Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037
Mongolia 2038
Argentina 2039
Rest of the world 2040+
GLOBAL NATIONAL
Increased cost performance
of mobile phones
Increased cost performance of tablets/ e-readers
Development of high
performance digital paper
Changes in newsprint and print
production costs
Uptake of digital news
monetization mechanisms
Trends in advertising spend and allocation
Development of open
platforms
Technology uptake
Fixed bandwidth availability and costs
Mobile bandwidth availability and costs
Smartphone and e-reader penetration
Industry structure
Financial position of leading newspapers
Balance of advertising and print sales revenue
Newspaper distribution structures
Demographics
Age structure, birth rates, and immigration
Degree of urbanization
Increase in literacy
Consumer behaviors
Media channel preferences
Willingness to pay for news
Relative interest in local and global news
Government
Degree of regulation
Government financial support for media
Censorship and obstruction
Economic development
Economic growth rate
Wealth inequality
Urban/ regional wealth disparity
Future Exploration Network helps
media organizations to engage with
the future, build effective strategies,
innovate, and achieve results.
USA: (415) 315 9566
Australia: +61-2 9994 8011
Services include:• Media Strategy
• Scenario Planning
• Future of Media Workshops
• Thought Leadership Content
• Executive Briefings and Keynotes
* Notes to the timeline This schedule for newspaper
extinction shows best
estimates given current trends.
The timeline is intended to
highlight the diversity of global
media markets and stimulate
useful strategic conversations.
Newspapers in their
current form becoming
insignificant is not the
same as the death of
news-on-paper, which
will continue in a
variety of forms.
Ways that newspaper publishers of
today will succeed in the transition
beyond “newspapers in their
current form” include transitioning
to other channels, providing
personalized news-on-paper, and
tapping niche markets.
Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors