SALVOU.S. Army Watervl iet Arsenal - Since 1813

July 2017

Story on Page 3

Apprentices:Are they

enjoying the best years

of their lives?

Page 2 Salvo July 31, 2017

The Arsenal Salvo is an authorized monthly publication for members of the Department of Defense. Contents of the Salvo are not necessar-ily the official views of, or an endorsement by the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense, the Department of the Army, or the Watervliet Arsenal. News may be submitted for publication by sending articles to Public Affairs Officer, 1 Buffington Street, Bldg. 10, Watervliet, NY 12189, or stop by office #102, Bldg. 10, Watervliet Arsenal. The editor may also be reached at (518) 266-5055 or by e-mail: john.b.snyder.civ@mail.mil. The editor reserves the right to edit all information submitted for pub-lication.

Commander, Col. Joseph R. MorrowPublic Affairs Officer, John B. SnyderEditor, John B. SnyderPhotographer: John B. Snyder Arsenal Facebook Page @https://www.facebook.com/WatervlietArsenal?ref=hlCover Photo: Apprentices Jeff Empie, left, and Rich-ard Bennett.

Colonel Joseph R. MorrowCommander’s Corner

By the time this column gets released, the Arsenal’s annual shut-down period will have ended and much of the workforce will have returned from vacation. And, from what I recall from last summer, this period of time is not for the squeamish. As I have mentioned before, the calendar forces us to take certain actions and to make decisions. It (calendar) can be a friend, especially at the beginning of the fiscal year, where we have the luxury of time. It can also be a foe, especially at the end of the fiscal year, as we try to close out production requirements and budgets. For those who worked here during the shut-down, thank you for keeping the momentum going. For those who took vacation, I look forward to your return with your batteries fully charged to jump-start our op-erations. Suffice it for me to say that we are now in a sprint to the finish line with the end of the fiscal year about eight weeks away. If there is ever a time during the year where we must push hard to meet mission accomplishment, it is now. I understand that throughout the year we have delivery schedules to meet. But why now is so impor-tant, is that by the end of the September we will tally up our final numbers for production and just as impor-tant — revenue. There is also little time to make up production shortfalls of any nature. And so, I need everyone to be at a heightened state of awareness, as well as focus, so that we finish the year meeting all remaining require-

ments. If we can get ahead on production, I’ll take that, too. Although the gist of this column is about closing out this fiscal year, we cannot and will not do that at the expense of future operations and requirements. The vast majority of our deliveries will not occur until 2018, 2019, and even 2020. As we work hard to close out this year, we must also shape the environment for future years. The shaping actions you take now will greatly im-pact our ability to get a great start on the next fiscal year’s requirements. If we start off slow, it will make the remainder of the year that much more difficult, as we play a game of catch up. Finally, as we push hard, I need you to do so safely. There is no mission or requirement that is so timely that we create unacceptable risk to our valued work-force. Each of you is important to the mission and to your families. Please think of that as you may come into a situation of whether you should or should not do a certain task that risks your safety. If that ques-tion arises, the decision has already been made … you should not do it.

Page 3 Salvo July 31, 2017

Story continues on page 4, “Apprentice”

By John B. Snyder

Third-year apprentice Derrell Barefield preparing to finish turn a 155mm howitzer tube in July 2017. Barefield is now half-way through his apprenticeship, en route to becoming a certified machinist in 2019. As an apprentice, Barefield is often working independent of any direct supervision, something that he and other apprentices have been doing since their first year in the program.

Photo by John B. Snyder

Older machinists here are sometimes overheard telling first-year apprentices to get ready for the best years of their lives, just as the apprentices begin their four-year transformation from an unknown applicant to a certified Army-machinist. But behind the wink and a nod, those mature machinists know that the best years do not necessarily mean easy years. Because they aren’t. “There is nothing easy about the first year of an apprentice’s life here,” said Robert Day, the Arsenal’s apprentice program supervisor. “In fact, there is nothing easy in any of the four years during which apprentices attend schooling at a local community college and obtain 8,000 hours of hands-on training here.” Day said that the first few months of apprenticeship can be overwhelming as apprentices attempt to balance a heavy workload with school and sometimes,

with their families whose school plays, holiday lunches, and kids sports compete for their time. “Time management is critical,” Day said. “If they (apprentices) can’t get into a rhythm in their first few months of the program, they won’t survive the four years.” Even if the apprentices have some mechanical experience, they can still have a rude awakening, Day said. The sheer size of the Arsenal’s heavy machinery supersedes any machine they may have known in a local mom and pop-type of machine shop. And, when you combine the size of the machines with the scope of the Arsenal’s manufacturing mission, apprentices can become overwhelmed.

Apprenticeship is all numbers: 8,000 hours of hands-on training,

4 years of college

Page 4 Salvo July 31, 2017

Apprentice Cont.

Acting Machinist Supervisor Ryan Putnam, right, is checking the work and calculations of apprentices, Richard Bennett, center, and Jeff Empie. Empie is a third-year apprentice who is coaching Bennett, who has just finished his first year in the apprentice pro-gram

Photo by John B. Snyder

To mitigate the potential for apprentices dropping out of the program, which happens to about 15 percent of every apprentice class, Day said the Arsenal goes through a rigorous selection process. “For the last apprentice job announcement, we had more than 400 apply for 14 positions,” Day said. “This deep pool of talent truly allows us to hire the best applicant.” Even after several years in the apprentice program, the best years of their lives remains a challenge. Earlier this month, third-year apprentice Jeff Empie was pressing howitzer tubes with nearly 900 tons of pressure in an effort to straighten the bores. “Although I have often worked by myself since my first year as an apprentice, I am still intimidated by the fact that any mistake that I make may cost the Arsenal up to $100,000 or cause the Arsenal to miss a shipment to our troops,” Empie said. “So, my goal every day is to learn something new and if I come into a situation where I am unsure of myself, I will ask a senior machinist for help.” For the last five months, Empie has studied under the tutelage of senior machinist and now acting machinist supervisor Ryan Putnam. “We, as Army machinists, have an awesome responsibility to the Arsenal and to our troops to ensure that every product we make is made to an extremely high standard,” Putnam said. “And, that responsibility begins the first day an apprentice cuts his or her first piece.” Putnam said that he and other senior machinists have an inherent responsibility to be part of the education of apprentices to ensure that they

(apprentices) not only meet the requirements of their hands-on training, but also to ensure that apprentices add value to the production process. “I know that there is nothing easy about the

apprentices’ training,” Putnam said. “In fact, there is nothing easy about being a machinist knowing that our products will soon be in the hands of Soldiers. But as long as apprentices have a positive attitude, I can train them to be great at what they do.” Fellow third-year apprentice Derrell Barefield was finish turning the outside diameter of a 155mm howitzer tube earlier this month when he said that he has survived the rigorous apprentice program by having a positive attitude, which is exactly the point that Putnam made. “I come into work every day thinking about how appreciative I am to work at the Watervliet Arsenal that has been in continuous operation since 1813,” Barefield said. “I love my job here and the fact that I am making products that will help our troops survive on the battlefield.” Barefield echoed Empie’s comments by adding that he owes a lot of his success to the senior machinists here who have always provided him guidance when he asked for support. Putnam, who graduated from the Arsenal’s apprentice program in 2008, said he looks forward to the new class of apprentices that will begin in August. “One of the great things that apprentices offer is their ability to ask questions that really make senior machinists take a step back to internalize and visualize why we are doing a certain operation,” Putnam said. “I learn or relearn something every day that I am training an apprentice.” This new apprentice class, as well as the other two classes currently ongoing, are here at an opportune time for the Arsenal, as the Arsenal is about to enter one of the greatest years for workload since 2010.

Page 5 Salvo July 31, 2017

By John B. Snyder

Arsenal lands another $3.5M in Foreign Military Sales

Story continues on page 6, “FMS”

Left: Iraqi troops firing a 120mm mortar system in July 2017. The Arsenal's requirements for Foreign Military Sales have exploded this year when compared to previous years having gone from $1.7M received last year to about $60M received this year.Right: U.S. Marines firing a 60mm mortar system in California in July 2017. This system is similar to what the Arsenal will provide to Afghani-stan.

The Arsenal announced this week the receipt of three foreign military sales contracts that total more than $3.5 million to provide mortar components to the Iraqi, Afghanistan, and Lebanese armies.

These contracts are in addition to the foreign military sales contracts the Arsenal received earlier this year to support the Indian and Australian armies that totaled more than $55 million, said Joseph Turcotte, the Arsenal’s deputy commander. To put the size of these foreign contracts into perspective, the Arsenal achieved only $1.7 million in foreign military sales contracts for fiscal 2016 that ended last September.

“Although we have been supporting allied armies for generations, the interest in Arsenal products this year has been nothing short of phenomenal,”

Turcotte said. “Our plans for an increase in military sales to offset a decline in U.S. orders in recent years due to sequestration have become a reality.”

According to Thomas Pond, the Arsenal’s director of operations, the break out of the contracts are approximately: $464,000 to provide the Afghanistan army with 60mm mortar barrels and assemblies; $615,000 to provide the Lebanese army with 120mm mortar barrels and assemblies; $2,488,000 to provide the Iraq army with 120mm mortar barrels and assemblies.

The delivery of items will begin in July 2018 and should be complete by 2020, Pond said.

Photos by Cpl. Tracy McKithern and Cpl. Christopher A. Mendoza

Page 6 Salvo July 31, 2017

FMS Cont. “Because mortar and cannon production are core mission requirements, these contracts will help maintain critical manufacturing skills that quickly become perishable if not used,” Pond said. “And so, these sales will significantly contribute to the sustainment of critical skills that my team will use on future orders to support the U.S. military.”

For the Arsenal to retain its worldwide status as a center of technical excellence for large caliber weapons manufacturing, it must maintain a highly trained workforce that can execute all critical manufacturing skills that range from forge operations to heat treatment. In recent years, however, the Arsenal leadership has found it very challenging to maintain a high level of expertise in core critical manufacturing skills due to the reduced workload that came from declining defense budgets.

As an effort to counter any erosion of skills, the Arsenal has aggressively worked with the Army’s weapon program managers, the Army’s Security Assistance Command, and private industry to help fill in the gaps to workload by looking at overseas markets.

The U.S. State Department manages the foreign military sales program and works closely with the Department of Defense to resource the requirements. These proposed sales will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of the nation’s allies.

The mortar system is used primarily by the infantry as an indirect fire weapon when a high angle trajectory is required to hit enemy troops, materiel, and positions.

The Watervliet Arsenal is an Army-owned-and-operated manufacturing facility and is the oldest, continuously active arsenal in the United States having begun operations during the War of 1812.

Top: A 60mm mortar system being read-ied for shipment to Afghanistan several years ago.

Left: Quality Control Inspector Steve Luther checking a 60mm mor-tar tube.

Bottom: Machinist Ken Chirpka taking a final look at the drawings before he starts ma-chining 60mm mortar baseplates.

Photos by John B. Snyder

Page 7 Salvo July 31, 2017

Story continues on page 8, "Hires”

By John B. Snyder

Photo by John B. Snyder

The Army-owned arsenal at Watervliet, N.Y., deals in numbers every day, from how many direct labor hours are expended to how many mortar baseplates have shipped. Nevertheless, there are numbers that are becoming more visible, if not nearly as important, to the Arsenal leadership that has recently caught their at-tention. “When I took command last July, I knew that after 200 years of operation the Arsenal’s importance cer-tainly transcended its ability to provide high quality weapons to our troops,” said Arsenal Commander Col. Joseph Morrow. “But what I didn’t appreciate at the time is just how much value people outside of the Arse-nal fence line give to landing a job here. The interest to work here is nothing short of phenomenal.” Morrow highlighted a job fair hosted at the Arsenal

last January as the first evidence to him regarding the value the community places on a job here. “During the planning for the January job fair, which was the first job fair hosted on the Arsenal in a genera-tion, many of us were concerned that there might not be enough people interested to make the job fair vi-able,” Morrow said. “The job fair proved us wrong, as more than 900 people braved the cold weather to talk to Arsenal subject-matter experts about job opportunities here.” Then in March, the Arsenal had more than 400 apply for 14 job openings for machinist apprentices. The Arsenal began its apprentice program in 1905 and now

Manufacturers nationally are having a tough time finding

applicants, but not here

During a January job fair hosted here, more than 900 people flowed into the Arsenal to find out about the hiring process and job opportuni-ties. For a recent machinist apprentice job announcement, more than 400 applied for 14 positions.

Page 8 Salvo July 31, 2017

Hires Cont.

Left: To help promote the Arsenal's hiring actions, Commander Col. Joseph Morrow is explaining to Times Union reporter Larry Rulison dur-ing the January job fair about the job opportunities that were available here.Right: Chief of Manufacturing John Zayhowski, left, talking to Spectrum News reporter Geoff Redick about new contracts. These media engagements help create awareness about the Arsenal's operations and therefore, create interest in many to find work here.

Photos by John B. Snyder

works with the Hudson Valley Community College in Troy, N.Y., to produce the finest machinists in the Army. After a rigorous four-year-program that requires the apprentices to obtain 8,000 hours of hands-on train-ing here while they attend night school, which is fully paid by the Army, the U.S. Department of Labor certi-fies the apprentices as machinists. John Zayhowski, the Arsenal’s chief of manufactur-ing, said he believes the great interest in working at the Arsenal transcends generations. “When you (the Arsenal) have been operating for more than 200 years, you are bound to have tens of thousands locally who have in some way had someone they know, quite often a family member or a neighbor, work here,” Zayhowski said. “This word of mouth campaign by countless individuals about how great working here have been to their ability to raise a family and to enjoy the benefits of a good middle-class living continues to be retold during the interview process.” After all, the word of mouth campaign worked for Zayhowski as his parents had both worked at the Arse-nal and had planted a seed in him regarding the benefits and the value of working for the Army. Nevertheless, Zayhowski comes from a different, younger generation than the Baby Boomers who have for many years led the Arsenal. And because he does, he has a different take on how to communicate to po-tential applicants.

“Word of mouth can only go so far given that our employment numbers are a fraction of what they were in the 1970s and 1980s,” Zayhowski said. “Because most people today get their information from their phones, personal tablets, and from their computers, we are leveraging social media to mutually support our recruiting efforts in traditional media outlets, such as newspapers.” Zayhowski said that just this past month, the Arse-nal posted a job announcement flyer onto its Facebook page and in less than seven days the announcement had been viewed more than 194,000 times. This profound interest by thousands to work at the Watervliet Arsenal is welcomed relief to Morrow. “After many years of stagnant revenue growth, we have turned the corner and have locked in more than $100 million of future work just in the first half of this year,” Morrow said. “To support this expansion of work, we have a critical need for skilled labor, which nationally is in short supply. Nevertheless, due to the current flood of interest to work here, we will be able to be very selective to ensure that we fill our vacancies with the very best our country has to offer.” According to the National Association of Manufac-turers, two million manufacturing jobs will go unfilled over the next decade due to a shortage of skilled labor. The Arsenal is chipping away at that number with 87 positions currently needing to be filled now. Just numbers.

Just last month, the Arsenal commander insinuated in his monthly column to the workforce that he should not get paid for doing something (commanding) that he loved to do. Now, another Arsenal leader said this week that she can’t believe she is getting paid for something she truly loves to do. What’s going on here??? Maybe, the Industrial Hygiene office should check the water before Army auditors swarm onto the Arsenal to look at cutting payroll. Or, maybe, the flu season began early and these nonsensical comments are the symptoms of the illness. If that is the case, what the Arsenal needs is a flood of medical staff and not auditors. After all, there are many…no, most here who still want to get paid. But for whatever reason, there seems to be an eerie

sense that people love to work here, proclaiming that they should not get paid, and that feeling is spreading. Laurol Bartlett, is one of the heretics who has offered similar comments as the commander by saying that she can't believe that she gets paid for what she does here. She is the Lead Child and Youth Program Assistant for the Ar-senal’s summer camp program. “I began working here 10 years ago and I have loved every day,” Bartlett said. “I don’t think of working here as a job because I can play if I want to, swim if I want to, and be a big kid if I want to. But the real reasons why I come back every year are due to the special relationships that I have with the parents, counselors, Arsenal staff, and more importantly, the kids.” Bartlett began working at the summer camp when it had just transitioned from a contracted operation that had about 25 kids in the program. Over the course of 10 years, the

Page 9 Salvo July 31, 2017

By John B. Snyder

Controlling Cost and Delivery

Strange talk may challenge

payroll

Story continues on page 10, "Camp”

Page 10

summer camp has significantly grown and now hosts about 76 children. Despite this growth, Bartlett said the camp has never lost its intimacy with the kids. In essence, Bartlett and her counselors’ relationships with each child today is as good as it was 10 years ago when there were only about one-third of the number of children who are in camp today. This tremendous growth can be attributed to three basic reasons, said Melissa Ryder, the Arsenal’s Program Manager for Child Youth Services and Recreation. “We could not or would not grow the program un-less we had great kids who have made our jobs such a pleasure,” Ryder said. “The summer program also would not be a success unless we had support of the entire Ar-senal, as well as the support of the parents who are the best.” Ryder said she started working part time at the Arsenal 10 years ago as the lead camp counselor to fill in the summers while she was off from her teaching job at a local elementary school. She loved working here so much that she gave up teaching to work here full time. As if the fever is spreading, first-year camp counselor, Morgan Shaw, said that she, too, can’t believe she is getting paid because working here doesn’t feel like a job. How can a first-year counselor generate such intense feelings? Easy, she was once a summer camper who began coming here after 1st grade and kept coming back each summer, except for one, until she finished 8th grade, at which time she aged-out of the program. Shaw echoed Bartlett’s comment about the intimacy of the program.

“The number one attribute of the camp that I truly loved through the years was the true caring that each counselor had for the kids,” Shaw said. “Now, as a camp counselor, I still see that intimacy and I feel good to be a part of that.” Shaw, who is now studying psychology at Siena Col-lege, said that through the years she was super excited to see that the “fundamentals” of camp never changed. “I knew that each summer I would make new friends,

create cool crafts, swim, and best of all, take really cool field trips,” Shaw said. “Not only have those basic fundamentals of camp not changed, they have become better each year." But what about the kids? Have they drank from the same water fountain as those who had previously said they love it here? Af-ter all, they don’t get paid. And, five of the seven camp counselors are teachers in local school districts when they are not counselors. Wouldn’t the kids want a break for teachers? The kids have the fever, too, because they love it here. Tasyanna Reynolds is a camper who is getting ready to enter 7th grade. She has been a camper here about four years. “I love coming back to summer camp every year,” Reynolds said. “As much as I like to swim, which is al-most every day, the best part of camp is making friends.”

Reynolds said that she also considers the camp counsel-ors as friends because they (counselors) take the time to de-velop relationships with every kid. Just like Shaw, she will age-out after 8th grade, but she, too, hopes to come back as a counselor. Just as the interviews for this story were about done, 10-year-old Shae Fontaine stepped forward to tell her story about how much she loves it here.

Camp Cont.

Story continues on page 11, "Camp”

Top: Tasyanna Reynolds, front left, says the best part of camp is mak-ing friends.Bottom: Camp counselor and former camper, Morgan Shaw, center, is in her first year as a counselor.

Photos by John B. Snyder

Page 11 Salvo July 31, 2017

“I have been coming to summer camp for four years and I can’t think of any other place I would rather be than here during the sum-mer” Fontaine said. “I really, really like the camp counselors and the lifeguards who make every day exciting for us to be here.” Fontaine, who said she has aspirations to change the world by being a farm veterinar-ian, would love to come back here as a camp counselor during the summers when she is at-tending college. Fontaine’s foresight for someone who is 10 is amazing, but she and Reynolds well repre-sent the other 74 kids who, according to camp counselors, are amazing, too. Ryder said she has plans to expand the pro-gram in the next three years by making minor modifications to the main facility that houses the children on most days. Oh, great. More kids means more coun-selors who will also fall in love with working here, making heretical comments about not needing to get paid for a job that they love. The rest of the Arsenal workforce, who by the way love their paychecks, can only hope that Army auditors don’t read this story.

Camp Cont.

Camp is not all crafts, swimming, and field trips as these campers learned this month. Shae Fontaine, right, said, even after having worked out, that she can't think of any other place that she would rather be than here during her summers. She says she really, really likes the camp counselors and the lifeguards who make every day exciting.

Photo by John B. Snyder

There is something new for your protection at the Watervliet Arsenal. Just 4 numbers, 4445 (IHHL). This is the IH Hotline. If you have a concern about your work environment, if you are worried about the chemicals that you work with, if you think the ventilation in your shop should be a little better, give it a try. The IH Hotline is designed to get you in contact with an IH representative in minimal amount of time. We can help you decipher a MSDS/SDS, look at your job process to see if there is a hazard present that has not been addressed, or even do an ergonomic evaluation. If you have a concern that you have been exposed to some new or unfamiliar chemical, yes, we can look at that as well. The best part about this is that you can report something anony-mously. Of course we would like to have your name so we can have you show us just what the issue is, but if you are not comfortable giv-ing that information out, that’s fine too. Just call us with your concern at 4445 (IHHL) and we will get what information we can. Your name will not be put in play unless you want it to be. And if it’s during off-shift, there is an answering machine for your use. Please give as much information as you can about your concern at the tone. It’s just that easy. So, if you got a problem, you know who to call, 4445 (IHHL) the IH Hotline.

New Industrial Hygiene Hotline

Thomas Boucher, an Industrial Hygiene Technician, is sampling noise levels and carbon monoxide at the South Gate.

Photo by Wayne Rudolph

See page 14 for more camp photos

Page 12 Salvo July 31, 2017

Deploying to Afghanistan: So, what to say and where to begin… For me, the opportunity to represent the Arsenal and serve my country from a civilian role is an honor and an option that I never thought I would get. I always saw the TACOM emails looking for spe-cial trades like electricians, HVAC personnel, and for specialists in IT. But not administrative roles. Then the opportunity presented itself and with management’s support, here I am in Bagram, on the largest American military base in Afghanistan, with over 13,500 civilians and military/coalition forces. I have now been away for over a month to complete training before taking the bird over the big pond. It was a long exhausting flight. Leaving the comforts of home, my friends, family and pets (and not to mention the 4G Wi-Fi) to come out to communal living quarters and a desert in the middle of summer really questioned my judgment and state of mind; but the experience and camaraderie with my fellow teammates is worth it. To support the mission in a different capacity, and to work side-by-side with Soldiers and the command to ensure we are utilizing our footprint to capacity over here, is fantastic. It is truly an honor to be chosen for a position here and I thank my Arsenal leadership for allowing me to represent our great Arsenal and to help our mission first hand. On 26 July, we had a Change of Command. It compared perfectly to that of ours because it was ridiculously hot out. The ceremony took place in a clamshell tent that gave us shade, but no ventilation to cool down. It registered 113 degrees inside the tent. Our outgoing commander was Col. Shawn Wells Jr., who assumed command of Base Support Group, Ba-gram Airfield on July 22, 2016, and subsequently stood up Area Support Group, meaning that it is the goal to combine all the base camps in Afghanistan under one control. The new commander is Col. James W. Ellerson Jr., who had served as the Garrison Commander of Fort Jackson, S.C., since June 2015. The Afghan footprint contract was extended to 2024. And so, we are expecting a rise in numbers of forces, giving more opportunities for others to come experience this. History of Bagram Airfield Surrounded by the Hindu Kush Mountains in the Parwan Providence of Afghanistan, 25 miles north of Kabul, Bagram Airfield (BAF) is the largest U.S. Military base in Afghanistan. Built in the 1950s by the Russians, the airport at Bagram served as a base of operations for troops and supplies during the Soviet War in the 1980s. Over the last five years, the Base Support Group – Bagram Airfield (BSG-BAF) has been the primary integrator of BASEOPS on BAF – ensuring the oversight of multiple contracts to support operations. Moreover, the BSG has spearheaded the construction of hardened facilities, the optimization of utilities, descoping efforts and the implementation of the Oregon Trail. On Oct. 15, 2016, the Area Support Group – Afghanistan was established to synchronize, standardize, and optimize base support functions at Bagram and Kandahar, and forward operating bases at Fenty, Gamberi, Shorab, Dwyer and Lightning, which are scattered throughout South and Eastern Afghanistan.

Report from Afghanistan By Jessica Wasko

Real Property SpecialistUSFOR-A, Area Support Group -

Afghanistan DPW Bagram Support Group

When the spirit of volunteerism hits here, some stand up to the challenge. Our own

Jessica Wasko volunteered to better serve our troops by deploying to Afghanistan. Here is

her report...

Photo provided by Jessica Wasko

Page 13 Salvo July 31, 2017

Praise, Punishment, Probability and Randomness

The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Daniel Kahneman. But he was not an economist. He was a psychologist. He studied common misconceptions that affected people’s view of probability. Our human brain often finds the logic of randomness counterintuitive.

Kahneman once spoke to a group of Israeli air force instructors. His main point was that rewarding positive behavior works and punishing mistakes does not. One instructor noted “When I scream at people for bad execution they almost always do better the next time. Don’t tell me punishment does not work!”

This puzzled Kahneman because it made sense. Yet scientific studies definitively proved reward works and punishment does not. What might explain the apparent contradiction? It lies, he found, in a phenomenon called regression toward the mean.

When people perform a task repetitively, sometimes they do it better or worse than average (the “mean”). Once in a while, someone might do it either extraordinarily better or extraordinarily worse than the mean. But almost always, due to randomness, an extraordinary occurrence will be followed by a more usual occurrence closer to the mean. Randomness ensures that a terrible performance will be followed by a better performance, just due to chance. Performance regresses toward the mean.

So, despite the strong intuition of the flight instructor, screaming at students makes little difference. Our brain infers a connection that doesn’t exist.

Regression toward the mean also affects positive, praised behavior – the next instance will probably be worse. Yet that does not invalidate the science supporting praise – two steps forward and one step back.

In truth, human intuition is often wrong when considering probability. If you have a choice of 3 doors (Let’s Make a Deal!) and you pick door #1 then the host (Monty Hall) shows you what’s behind door #3 (a goat!) then gives you the chance to switch to door #2 (where Carole Merrill is now standing) you should switch because you have a 33% shot at winning the Ferrari by staying with door #1 but a 50% chance with door #2.If you have a room with 23 people in it, there’s a 50/50 chance that two of the people will have been born on the same day of the year.

Praise good behavior. Be aware that your intuition of probability may be wrong. Reduce randomness in processes for less variation around the mean.

By Mark Ripley

Page 14 Salvo July 31, 2017

Ahhh...Summer CampHard to put a price on the fun, smiles, and

more importantly, the friendships that are de-veloped at each summer camp. Suffice it to say,

it is priceless. Arsenal parents may download these and

many other photos from the Arsenal's H:Drive in

August.