NEW ZEALAND Q2 2016 · q2 2016 vs. q2 2015-8.5% quarter on quarter change q2 2016 vs. q1 2016...
Transcript of NEW ZEALAND Q2 2016 · q2 2016 vs. q2 2015-8.5% quarter on quarter change q2 2016 vs. q1 2016...
NEW ZEALAND Q2 2016
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 2
About BCI Pipeline Report
Headline Project
Work Entering the Pipeline:
Concept + Design Stage Projects Q2 2016
Overall Picture
By Category
By Region
New Zealand Economic Overview July 2016
Key Indicators
Disclaimer
BCI Economics Services
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3 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
BCI Economics is the centre of market intelligence within
the BCI Media Group. BCI reports on well over 200,000
construction projects in 12 regional markets including
Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, and since
2013, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. With highly qualified
team members on the ground in 25 offices across the
region, BCI has unparalleled access to live construction
data going as far as 10 years back and two years ahead.
The BCI Pipeline Report provides quarterly leading
indicators of the value of new construction projects in their
early stages (from competition to documentation). It is an
essential source of construction information for any
organisation or individual connected or concerned with the
future of the construction industry in New Zealand.
The BCI Pipeline Report offers more than just a general
view of the construction market by revealing specific
trends at regional and category levels.
However, as well as providing “the bigger picture” by
region and by category, the BCI Pipeline Report can be
used in conjunction with LeadManager to focus on and
take advantage of areas of opportunity. This will be of
particular relevance to clients who need to have their
products considered in the early stages of a project.
With this in mind, on the next page we have profiled a
‟Headline Project‟ from a promising Building Category to
illustrate how the BCI Pipeline Report can benefit your
organization as a sales resource as well as a planning tool.
BY REGION
Upper North Island
Comprising:
Auckland; Bay of Plenty;
Franklin; Manukau; North
Shore; Northland;
Papakura; Rodney;
Waikato; Waitakere
Lower North Island
Comprising:
Gisborne; Hawkes Bay;
Manawatu-Wanganui;
Taranaki; Wellington
South Island
BY CATEGORY
Building
Residential
Community
(incl, Recreation, Legal and
Health)
Education
Office & commercial
Industrial
Retail & Hospitality
Civil
(Incl. Infrastructure,
Transport and Utilities)
METHODOLOGY
The data in the BCI Pipeline Report is based on
projects reported on a daily basis in BCI Asia‟s
real-time project lead database. For the past nine
quarters all projects at „competition‟, „concept‟,
design‟, or ‟documentation‟ stage were extracted
from the database, by publishing date. Only „new‟
projects (projects reported for the first time) are
included. The aggregate value of the projects is
then established, by quarter.
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS ($Mn) - including Aged Care
The busy Residential market has been hitting the headlines but it is clear from the level of new proposals
that developers see plenty more scope for some time to come.
Project reference PID 98465017 was one of those new projects we reported and if your company has products or services relevant to this sector, this would be an opportune time to contact the key decision makers on the project.
PROJECT SNAPSHOT
Project ID: 98465017 - The Verve
Approximate Project Value:
$50 Mn
Address: 52 Peterborough St Christchurch Cen-tral NZ
Status: Resource Consent Approval Granted
62 x 2 & 3 bedroom apartments
Including:
Aluminium framed windows & doors
Air conditioning
Joinery & cabinetry
Double glazing
Lifts
+24.0%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+144.4%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2015
211
1204
656
355
940
852
679
477
1166
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
5 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE
PROJECTS Q2 2016
6 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
TOTAL CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE PROJECTS IN NEW ZEALAND ($Mn)
Following a general decline since early 2014 - punctuated by a spike in Q2 2015 mainly attributable to the release of
the draft plan for the Lyttleton Port recovery (PID 79296017) - early stage projects have recovered to healthy levels
with roughly a 60:40 balance between Building and Civil construction.
-7.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-2.8%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
3315 32663024
2558
3859
1461
2421
3667 3565
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
7 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ($Mn)
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE CIVIL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ($Mn)
-11.2%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-9.3%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
-1.4%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+9.7%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
642
3040
1874 1942
2465
1243
2185
2414
2190
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
2673
226
1150
616
1394
218 236
12531375
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
Civil construction levels are building after a quiet second half of 2015 with particular contributions from the Hurunui
Water Project (PID 6122012), the North Harbour 2 Water Main (PID 101145017) and the Reeves Road Flyover (PID
100433017) being added to the “to do” list for this sector.
8 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE PROJECTS BY CATEGORY - Q2 2016
CONCEPT & DESIGN STAGE PROJECTS BY REGION - Q2 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Upper North Island Lower North Island South Island
$Mn (LHS) Project Numbers (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
$Mn (LHS) Project Numbers (RHS)
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 9
The Residential category continues to be the main driving force within the Building sector. However, good
contributions from Community and Retail & Hospitality projects helped to offset a declining trend in other categories,
particularly Industrial. Major project proposals featuring in Q2 2016 include the $90M parkland development called
Eden Christchurch Ki Uta Ti Kai Project (PID 98726017) and the $200M Retail and Office expansion at Sylvia Park
Shopping Centre (PID 99518017).
RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS ($Mn) - including Aged Care
COMMUNITY PROJECTS ($Mn) - including Recreation, Health and Legal
+24.0%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+144.4%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
-8.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-23.2%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
211
1204
656
355
940
852
679
477
1166
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
113
212
126 134
442
115
258
526
404
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 10
OFFICE & COMMERCIAL PROJECTS ($Mn)
EDUCATION PROJECTS ($Mn)
-62.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-62.7%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
+327.3%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-72.7%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
55
725
262
123
22 18
364344
94
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
62 68
93
1130
423
117
272
424
158
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 11
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY PROJECTS ($Mn)
INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS ($Mn)
-32.9%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-38.6%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
-89.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-82.3%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
54
334
615
150
106
5
282
62
11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
147
497
122
50
532
136
330
581
357
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
Although new proposals for Building projects have recently been at reasonable levels, planning on Civil projects has
been relatively quiet but picked up in Q2 2016 with such projects as the North Harbour 2 Water Main (PID
101145017) and the Reeves Road Flyover (PID 100433017).
TOTAL PROJECTS IN UPPER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
UPPER NORTH ISLAND
+16.4%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-6.4%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
2893
1853
720575
1571
1141
1418
19521828
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
BUILDING PROJECTS IN UPPER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
CIVIL PROJECTS IN UPPER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
UPPER NORTH ISLAND
-25.9%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-31.0%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
+1770.3
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+126.1%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
335
1804
269
406
1534
962
1272
1646
1136
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
2558
49
451
16937
179 146306
692
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
Although there was a healthy number of project proposals during Q2 2016, the average value of those proposals
was well down in comparison with the other Regions. Nevertheless, the pipeline of future projects is building
steadily.
TOTAL PROJECTS IN LOWER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
LOWER NORTH ISLAND
+49.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+13.3%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
40
298
338
237262
54
314
346
392
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
BUILDING PROJECTS IN LOWER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
CIVIL PROJECTS IN LOWER NORTH ISLAND ($Mn)
LOWER NORTH ISLAND
+2.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-8.5%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
+173.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+48.1%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
36
214
118106
190
52
294
213195
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
4
84
220
131
72
2
20
133
197
0
50
100
150
200
250
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
The levels of new project proposals have been fluctuating over recent times although they seem to be picking up
after a significant decline in Q3 2015 (also observed for the Lower North Island). Although comparing unfavourably
with Q2 2015 and Q1 2016 (which included the $500Mn Wanganeka Road Link (PID 92630017)) Civil proposals
were at a good level with the help of the Hurunui Water Project (PID 6122012).
TOTAL PROJECTS IN SOUTH ISLAND ($Mn)
SOUTH ISLAND
-33.6%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-1.8%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
382
1115
1966
1746
2026
266
689
1369 1345
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
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BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
BUILDING PROJECTS IN SOUTH ISLAND ($Mn)
CIVIL PROJECTS IN SOUTH ISLAND ($Mn)
SOUTH ISLAND
+15.9%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+54.8%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
-62.2%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
-40.3%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016
271
1022
14871430
741
229
619555
859
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
111 93
479
316
1285
3770
814
486
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
II 2014 III 2014 IV 2014 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2015 I 2016 II 2016
19 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
JULY 2016
20 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ($Mn) Source: Statistics New Zealand Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series ex-pressed in 2009/10 prices
BUILDING CONSENTS ($Mn) Source: Statistics New Zealand
SUMMARY
Economic growth, buoyed in recent years by strong net immigration numbers, appeared to be decelerating since ear-
ly 2015, impacted by plummeting dairy prices and a ‟topping-out‟ of earthquake related building activity (evidenced
by the tailing off of Building Consents, especially Non-residential).
However there was a modest recovery in Q1 2016 although a new concern is emerging with low inflation. This adds
to the complications for the Reserve Bank in setting the Cash Rate with house prices threatening to race ahead and
the NZ dollar at a higher level than the Bank would prefer.
+2.8%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015
+0.7%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q4 2015
+11.3%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015
-12.1%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q4 2015
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
58,000
GDP - Chain Volume @ 2009/10 prices YoY CHANGE
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
RESIDENTIAL NON-RESIDENTIAL TOTAL
21 BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016
INFLATION AND CASH RATE Source: Statistics New Zealand & Reserve Bank of New Zealand
NON-BUILDING GDP EXPENDITURE ($Mn) Source: Statistics New Zealand
+1.1%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015
+12.0%
QUARTER ON
QUARTER CHANGE Q1 2016 vs. Q4 2015
+0.4%
YEAR ON YEAR
CHANGE IN CPI Q2 2016 vs. Q2 2015
+0.2%
QUARTER ON QUARTER CHANGE
IN CPI
Q2 2016 vs. Q1 2016 0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
115511601165117011751180118511901195120012051210
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX LH Scale
ANNUALISED INFLATION % RH Scale
OVERNIGHT CASH RATE % RH Scale
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 22
Information utilised in this report is current as of 1 July 2016.
The information for the economic indicators was drawn from the Government website of Statistics New
Zealand (www.stats.govt.nz). BCI New Zealand does not lay any claim to this data.
This information has been prepared without taking your specific needs or objectives into account. Because
of this you should consider its appropriateness with regard to your objectives or needs before acting on
this information. BCI New Zealand does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information in
this publication, and accepts no, and disclaims all, liability for any loss or damage whether occasioned by
reliance on such information or otherwise. The information is subject to change without notice and BCI
New Zealand is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may
become apparent at a later date.
BCI PIPELINE REPORT NEW ZEALAND - Q2 2016 23
BCI Economics offers three types of services to clients active
in the construction sector; Ongoing, Specialised and On
Demand.
ON-GOING
As part of its service to project leads subscribers, BCI offers
periodic construction forecasts. These are an integral element
of BCI‟s member services and an important aid in helping
decision makers anticipate critical changes in market demand:
BCI FORECASTER is a monthly report of construction starts
(as measured in local currency value), The short term review
of market developments contrasts the most recent three
months against the three months prior; the short term forecast
compares the up-coming three months with the most recent
three months‟ period. The long term review contrasts the most
recent twelve months against the corresponding twelve
months‟ period in the prior year. The long term forecast
compares the twelve months‟ period ending three months out
with the corresponding period in the prior year. The Forecaster
serves as an effective, extremely competitive short term sales
and operations planning tool.
BCI CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK is BCI‟s annual outlook for
the forthcoming fiscal year. The comprehensive report is
presented to the public at BCI‟s Annual Breakfast Briefings. It
provides a succinct fact-based picture of construction market
demand for the next four quarters, contrasted against the last
12 quarters.
BCI SENTIMENT SURVEYS are conducted annually and
focus on the business confidence of stakeholders in the
construction sector (developers, architects, builders and
subcontractors), shedding valuable light on the overall market
trajectory.
SPECIALISED
Current market developments guide BCI in its choice of topics
for its widely recognised market reports. Past reports have
included Green Building reports (2006, 2008, 2010 and 2014);
Construction in the Health Sector (2009); Building the
Education Revolution (2009), New Energy Report (2012) .
ON DEMAND
On demand research includes all commissioned research
conducted by BCI Economics at the request and pursuant to the
specifications of our clients.
TEMPLATED RESEARCH
This type of research implies that BCI Economics bundles
research projects across several clients, making commissioned
research particularly affordable for clients. This approach often
involves so-called omnibus surveys. As a source of reliable, quick
and cost-effective information on topics which are generally too
brief to be addressed in a separate survey, omnibus surveys by
BCI involve a range of methodologies including complex searches
in BCI‟s comprehensive project leads database, on-top research
to provide extra information on existing project reports (e.g. white
good brands chosen for serviced apartments completed in the last
12 months) and target group surveys. The topics typically address
one of the following:
Market Share Analysis
Decision Maker Analysis
CUSTOM RESEARCH
Custom research at BCI Economics knows few limits, provided the
construction market is involved. Over the past two years BCI
Economics has successfully completed comprehensive market
studies on a variety of building product sectors including, but not
limited to; roofing, insulation, lighting, home appliances, elevator/
escalator, air-conditioning system, sanitary ware, copper building
wire and light steel. The assignments went all the way from simple
market share analyses to a comprehensive market due diligence
analysis for a proposed acquisition of an Australian supplier by an
European group. Typical assignments handled by BCI Economics
include:
Brand Awareness and Market Share Analysis
Market Entry Analysis
Market Development Analysis
BCI New Zealand Pty Ltd
100 Neilson Street, Onehunga
Auckland 1061
T: +64 800 942 876
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Contact
Tracy Halpin
Sales Manager, BCI New Zealand
Email: [email protected]
Don Smith
BCI Economics Team Leader, BCI Media Group
Email: [email protected]
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