New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand...

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THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Date: GAIN Report Number: Approved By: Prepared By: Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and are forecast at 4.1 million head. Supported by favorable weather and pasture conditions, beef production in 2013 is forecast at 633,000 metric tons, up marginally from the revised 2012 estimate of 627,000 tons. Bucking the longer term trend, beef exports to the United States are projected to increase and are forecast at 252,000 metric tons, up five percent from the revised estimate of 240,000 tons exported in 2012. David-Lee Jones Joe Carroll Annual Livestock and Products Annual New Zealand NZ1211 9/6/2012 Required Report - public distribution

Transcript of New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand...

Page 1: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY

USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT

POLICY

Date:

GAIN Report Number:

Approved By:

Prepared By:

Report Highlights:

New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and are

forecast at 4.1 million head. Supported by favorable weather and pasture conditions, beef

production in 2013 is forecast at 633,000 metric tons, up marginally from the revised 2012 estimate of

627,000 tons. Bucking the longer term trend, beef exports to the United States are projected to

increase and are forecast at 252,000 metric tons, up five percent from the revised estimate of 240,000

tons exported in 2012.

David-Lee Jones

Joe Carroll

Annual

Livestock and Products Annual

New Zealand

NZ1211

9/6/2012

Required Report - public distribution

Page 2: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Executive Summary:

Executive Summary

Excellent weather conditions stretching back over the past twelve months have strengthened the

slaughter dynamics and positioned the livestock sector to increase production levels for the balance of

2012 and into 2013. (Note the marketing year = calendar year)

Total cattle slaughter for 2013 is forecast at 4.146 million head, marginally higher (0.6%) than the

revised 2012 estimate of 4.12 million head.

The dairy herd benefited from extraordinarily good pasture growth during 2011/12, which contributed

to a greater number of in-calf (pregnant) cows than previously expected. As a result, during the first

half 2012, the cow kill was about 100,000 head lower than previously anticipated. It is expected that

these cows will show up in an increased cow kill in 2013.

Increased cow kill in 2013, will support higher beef production which is forecast at 633,000 metric tons

(MT), carcass weight equivalent (CWE), just 1% ahead of the revised 2012 estimate of 627,000 MT

(CWE).

Domestic Consumption is projected to remain stable in 2013 and is forecast at 115,000 MT (CWE),

1,000 MT less than the current estimate for 2012.

On the trade front, beef exports in 2013 are forecast at 529,000 MT (CWE), up about 8,000 MT (1.5%)

on the revised 2012 estimate of 521,000 MT (CWE). In reverse of a long standing trend, beef exports

to the United States have been increasing, growing by 12 percent in 2012 to an estimated 240,000 MT,

and projected to increase by another 5 percent in 2013 to 252,000 MT.

In June 2011, NZ Food Safety (now part of the Ministry for Primary Industry (MPI)) modified the import

requirements for bovine meat and products. Previously an application to import beef into NZ from the

U.S. was administered on a case by case basis. Under the new requirements, MPI has a pre-clearance

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arrangement with the U.S. which requires the competent authority in the U.S. to issue certification

with each consignment.

Every autumn for the last 22 years Jack Rawlinson has driven his cattle through the Taranaki countryside from

Matau to Stratford. This scene is typical of North Island hill country farmland where most of the country’s beef

cattle are raised. Source: Taranaki Daily News

Production

Cattle Production & Slaughter

Total cattle slaughter in 2013 is forecast at 4.146 million head. This is marginally (1 percent) higher

than the revised 2012 estimate of 4.120 million head.

Page 4: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

PSD Table: Cattle Numbers

Animal Numbers, Cattle New Zealand

2011 2012 2013 %

Change 2013 New Post Data from 2012 New Post Data

% Change 2012 New Post Data from 2012 last Post Est.

Market Year Begin: Jan

2011

Market Year Begin: Jan 2012

Market Year

Begin: Jan 2013

(1000hd, %)

Off. Data

New Post Data

Off. Data

Post Est.

New Post Data

Off. Data

New Post Data

Total Cattle Beg. Stks 9,864 9,864 10,058

10,058

10,057

10,253

1.9% 0.0%

Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks 4,680 4,680 4,810 4,810 4,816 5,021 4.3% 0.1% Beef Cows Beg. Stocks 1,117 1,117 1,082 1,082 1,053 1,053 0.0% -2.7% Production (Calf Crop) 4,747 4,786 4,880 4,880 5,022 4,943 -1.6% 2.9% Total Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 14,61

1 14,65

0 14,93

8 14,93

8 15,07

9 15,19

6 0.8% 0.9%

Total Exports 34 34 30 30 41 47 14.6% 36.7% Cow Slaughter 806 806 910 910 800 925 15.6% -12.1% Calf Slaughter 1,665 1,665 1,680 1,680 1,830 1,750 -4.4% 8.9% Other Slaughter 1,468 1,468 1,547 1,547 1,490 1,471 -1.3% -3.7% Total Slaughter 3,939 3,939 4,137 4,137 4,120 4,146 0.6% -0.4% Loss 580 620 581 581 665 693 4.2% 14.5% Ending Inventories 10,05

8 10,05

7 10,19

0 10,19

0 10,25

3 10,31

0 0.6% 0.6%

Total Distribution 14,611

14,650

14,938

14,938

15,079

15,196

0.8% 0.9%

CY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 0 0 0 Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory Balance 194 193 132 132 196 57 -70.9% 48.5% Inventory Change (1) (1) 2 2 2 2 0.0% 0.0% Cow Change 2 2 2 0 0 0 Production Change 5 5 3 3 5 (2) -

140.0%

66.7%

Production to Cows 82 83 83 83 86 81 -5.8% 3.6% Slaughter to Inventory 40 40 41 41 41 40 -2.4% 0.0% Slaughter to Total Supply 27 27 28 28 27 27 0.0% -3.6% TS=TD 0 0 0

Not Official USDA Data Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline

Despite apparently stable slaughter numbers, there are some significant changes affecting overall beef

production. The cow kill for the first half of 2012 was reported at 65,000 head less than the previous

year’s first half kill, and more than 100,000 head shy of many industry forecasts.

Page 5: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Following excellent weather and pasture growth during the 2011/12 spring, summer and autumn

periods, cows were fed very well and the dairy herd had more cows’ in-calf than expected (by

approximately 100,000 head). Typically dairy farmers kill their empty (non-pregnant) cows at the end

of the milking season (April/May). The extra cow in-calf have been retained by dairy farmers and will

be milked for all or part of the 2012/13 season. It is expected that they will begin entering back into

the market late in the fourth quarter of 2012 and most will be disposed of in the first half of 2013 as

feed conditions change and it becomes too expensive to carry on feeding extra cows. The disposal of

held over cows from 2012 should give rise to a significantly increased cow kill in 2013 forecast at

925,000 (an increase of 125,000 head).

The extra cows carried through 2012 will also have an effect on the number of bobby calves coming

forward for slaughter. In 2013 it is forecast that at 1.75 million head, the total calf kill will be 80,000

head less than in 2012 in the wake of the expected surge in numbers of calves being born in 2012. The

increased calf crop in 2012 will be the result of the extra cows and likely better survival rates at

calving, which are not expected to be repeated in 2013.

Adult steer, heifer and bull slaughter for 2013 is forecast at 1.47 million head and is based on the

survey work carried out by Beef and Lamb New Zealand (a levy funded industry body). This will be

19,000 head less than the 2012 estimate. Now estimated at 1.49 million head, the 2012 adult steer,

heifer and bull kill is 57,000 head less than previous estimates. This is due in part to increased live

exports; partly due to some cattle being held over to the next year; and to a more accurate survey of

stock on hand that will be available for slaughter over Quarter two of 2012.

Cattle Inventory trends

At the start of 2013, the total cattle herd stood at 10.3 million head, up about 2% or close to 200,000

head more than at the start of 2012. This is almost entirely due to the increase in dairy cow numbers.

Since 2003, the size of NZ’s dairy herd has trended upward at an average rate of about 116,000 head

per year. The increase in 2012 is estimated at 205,000 head. Beef and Lamb NZ estimates that as of

June 30, 2012, 13% of all cattle on sheep and beef farms were either dairy cows or heifer replacements

for the dairy herd.

Beef Production

Total beef production for 2013 is forecast at 633,000 MT (CWE). A likely return to more normal

pasture growing conditions with mild to moderate El Nino weather patterns expected in 2012/13,

should see average carcass weights decline closer to the five-year average. Good cattle liveweights

observed in the third quarter of 2012 as a result of better feeding earlier in the year should carry over

to higher slaughter weights during the first half of 2013.

Page 6: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

The 2012 total beef production is estimated at 627,000 MT, about four percent lower than Post’s

previous estimate. The decline is attributed to the reduction in slaughter numbers. The decline in

slaughter numbers is likely to be mitigated to some extent by the significantly higher average carcass

weights during the first half of 2012.

New Zealand Beef Production Table Marketing

Year 2011 2012 Estimated 2013 Forecasts

CW kgs/hd

Numbers to kill

(1000's)

Total tons Beef

CW kgs/hd

Numbers to kill

(1000's)

Total tons Beef

Est. CW

kgs/hd

Numbers to kill

(1000's)

Total tons Beef

Cow Slaughter

200.2 806 161380 205.0 800 164000 202 925 186,850

Calf Slaughter

16.3 1,665 27146 16.0 1,830 29280 16.30 1,750 28525

Heifer Slaughter

235.2 481 113209 243.0 465 112995 235 457 107,395

Steer slaughter

305.5 572 174690 316.0 585 184860 308 570 175,560

Bull Slaughter

299.6 415 124252 309.0 440 135960 305 444 135420

Other Adult Cattle Subtotal

280.8 1,468 412151 291.2 1,490 433815 284.4 1,471 418375

Total Slaughter

152.5 3,939 600,678 152.2 4,120.0 627,095 152.9 4,146 633750

% Change from Previous Year

Cow Slaughter

1.1% -7.1% -6.1% 2.4% -0.8% 1.6% -1.5% 15.6% 13.9%

Calf Slaughter

-0.3% 6.6% 6.3% -1.9% 9.9% 7.9% 1.9% -4.4% -2.6%

Heifer Slaughter

0.2% -2.3% -2.1% 3.3% -3.4% -0.2% -3.3% -1.7% -5.0%

Steer slaughter

-1.2% -9.5% -10.5% 3.4% 2.3% 5.8% -2.5% -2.6% -5.0%

Bull Slaughter

-2.5% -5.0% -7.4% 3.2% 6.1% 9.4% -1.3% 0.9% -0.4%

Other Adult Cattle Subtotal

-1.5% -6.0% -7.4% 3.7% 1.5% 5.3% -2.3% -1.3% -3.6%

Total Slaughter

-5.3% -1.3% -6.5% -0.2% 4.6% 4.4% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1%

Source: StatsNZ, B&LNZ, Post estimates

PSD Table: Beef Production

Meat, Beef & Veal New Zealand

2011 2012 2013 %

Change 2013 New Post Data from 2012

% Chan

ge 2012 New Post Data from

Market Year Begin: Jan 2011 Market Year Begin: Jan 2012

Market Year Begin: Jan

2013

(1000hd, 1000MT CWE, kg, %) Off. Data

New Post

Off. Data

Post Est.

New Post

Off. Dat

New Post

Page 7: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Data Data a Data New Post Data

2012 last Post Est.

Slaughter (Reference) 3,939 3,939 4,137 4,137 4,120 4,146 0.63% -0.41%

Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 601 601 652 652 627 633 0.96% -

3.83%

Total Imports 12 12 12 12 10 11 10.00%

-16.67

%

Total Supply 613 613 664 664 637 644 1.10% -4.07%

Total Exports 503 503 544 544 521 529 1.54% -4.23%

Human Dom. Consumption 110 110 120 120 116 115 -0.86%

-3.33%

Other Use, Losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Dom. Consumption 110 110 120 120 116 115 -

0.86% -

3.33%

Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Distribution 613 613 664 664 637 644 1.10% -

4.07%

CY Imp. From U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 CY. Exp. to U.S. 213 213 215 215 240 252 5.00% 11.63

%

Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory Balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Weights 153 153 158 158 152 153 0.66% -

3.80%

Production Change % (7) (7) 8 8 4 1 -75.00

%

-50.00

%

Import Change % 9 9 0 0 (17) 10 -158.82

%

Export Change % (5) (5) 8 8 4 2 -50.00

%

-50.00

%

Consumption Change % (11) (11) 9 9 5 (1) -120.00

%

-44.44

%

Imports Percent Consumption 11 11 10 10 9 10 11.11%

-10.00

%

Exports Percent Production 84 84 83 83 83 84 1.20% 0.00% Population 4,290,3

47 4,290,3

47 4,327,9

44 43279

44 43279

44 4,365,1

13 0.86% 0.00%

Per Capita Consumption 26 26 28 28 27 26 -1.87%

-4.29%

TS=TD 0 0 0

Not Official USDA Data Data included in this report is not official USDA data. Official USDA data is available at

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlineonline

Note: This table shows quantities on a Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) basis which for USDA standardization purposes is 1.4 times the

Product Weight tonnage

Page 8: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Over time an increasing amount of New Zealand’s beef production is being sourced from the dairy

herd. Dairy cattle comprise 62% of the total cattle herd now; where as a decade ago they comprised

52%. Over 80% of the cow kill comes from the dairy herd, the calf kill and nearly all the bull kill is

sourced from progeny of the dairy herd. In addition, cattle bred from beef bulls servicing dairy cows

later in the mating period each spring, provide significant progeny for replacements to the national

heifer and steer herds. This trend is set to continue. Manufacturing beef will comprise an ever

increasing proportion of the total beef produced in NZ. The small amount of high value prime cuts

from heifers, and steers will either be consumed locally or exported to the very high-priced markets

such as Europe.

Farm Gate Beef Prices

Source: GTA, Ifarm, Reserve Bank NZ

Page 9: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Source: GTA, Ifarm, Reserve Bank NZ

Farmer Profitability

Source: B&LNZ

In nominal terms profitability of the beef and lamb sector hit a record level in the 2011/12 year, mostly on the back of the highest prices ever received for lamb meat. Higher farmgate beef prices and very favorable weather conditions also helped propel farm businesses to the record profits.

Consumption

Domestic consumption in 2013 is forecast at 115,000 MT CWE, virtually the same as in 2012. Domestic

consumption is very stable fluctuating within a fairly narrow range of 110,000 MT CWE to 120,000 MT

CWE per annum.

Page 10: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Statistics New Zealand estimates that for the general food basket, prices fell in the year to June 2012

by an average of 0.2%. Meat prices (meat, poultry and fish) rose by 2.2% helped along mainly by fresh

chicken prices which went up by 11%. Within this category, beef and veal prices rose by a mere 0.2%.

Looking forward, no significant price changes are expected in the NZ beef sector.

Of some interest in the red meat sector is the introduction by McDonalds in New Zealand of Lamb

Burgers onto its menu. Way back in the late 1980’s lamb burgers were suggested by the then Member

of Parliament, Mike Moore now NZ Ambassador to the US, as a way to market the oversupply of lamb

that existed at the time. It is hoped that if this innovation is successful lamb will find its way onto

McDonalds menus elsewhere in the world.

Trade

Exports

Beef exports in 2013 are forecast at 529,000 MT CWE, up two percent on the revised 2012 export

estimate of 521,000 MT.

Trade

New Zealand Beef Export Statistics for Calendar Years

Partner Country

2009 2010 2011 % Change

% Change

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Qty 2011 over 2010

Value 2011 over 2010

World 367045 1166.7 378325 1471.1 359366 1729.4 -5.0% 17.6% United States 167546 465.1 158761 565.3 151873 676.5 -4.3% 19.7% Japan 29029 121.4 34130 159.4 30819 155.5 -9.7% -2.4% Korea South 32088 76.8 34292 107.0 35973 139.8 4.9% 30.7% Taiwan 20164 72.7 19459 82.9 19445 104.4 -0.1% 26.0% Canada 28420 78.8 22994 80.2 22786 95.6 -0.9% 19.2% Indonesia 26238 60.5 36926 114.8 20880 81.6 -43.5% -28.9% Australia 3587 17.8 4895 29.1 6220 39.3 27.1% 35.0% Singapore 5379 22.2 6252 31.0 6266 37.3 0.2% 20.3% Philippines 7220 18.1 9890 29.0 10028 35.1 1.4% 21.1% French Polynesia 4644 26.4 4755 30.7 4645 34.0 -2.3% 10.9% United Kingdom 3810 22.7 3232 19.9 4149 31.2 28.4% 56.8% Netherlands 1134 10.3 1671 17.7 2114 30.5 26.5% 72.4% Hong Kong 7276 27.3 5592 28.7 5071 30.0 -9.3% 4.4% Germany 722 6.4 1076 10.5 1297 18.3 20.5% 73.8% United Arab Emirates 2176 11.3 2283 13.6 2440 17.2 6.9% 26.1%

Page 11: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Rest of the World 27611 128.8 32116 151.5 35359 203.1 10.1% 34.1%

Source: GTA

New Zealand Beef Export Statistics Year To Date: January to June

2010 2011 2012 %

Change %

Change

Partner Country

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Product Weight

Quantity Metric Tons

Value USD

millions

Qty 2012 over 2011

Value 2012 over 2011

World 239881 892.6 223110 1075.0 223167 1077.5 0.0% 0.2% United States 111278 382.8 103249 458.8 110520 504.7 7.0% 10.0% Japan 19924 87.8 18823 92.5 19781 99.2 5.1% 7.3% Taiwan 12704 53.1 12959 70.4 12811 70.1 -1.1% -0.5% Korea South 22256 65.7 23155 93.1 16730 58.6 -27.7% -37.1% Canada 13867 48.4 14113 61.2 10577 46.7 -25.1% -23.7% Indonesia 21075 63.4 8094 30.0 6038 26.5 -25.4% -11.7% Hong Kong 3604 17.7 2752 16.9 3650 22.2 32.6% 31.4% Philippines 5989 16.0 5817 20.0 6830 21.4 17.4% 7.1% Australia 2504 15.5 2765 19.8 3246 20.5 17.4% 3.6% Singapore 3945 17.8 3610 20.4 3655 19.5 1.2% -4.5% Netherlands 1139 11.0 1304 19.4 1292 15.7 -0.9% -19.1% United Kingdom 2305 14.7 2968 23.4 1828 15.7 -38.4% -33.1% French Polynesia 2464 15.6 2348 17.0 2042 15.4 -13.0% -9.2% Malaysia 1498 5.3 1648 7.3 4028 14.6 144.4% 101.1% China 1381 3.7 1145 4.5 2865 11.6 150.2% 158.4% Rest of the World 13947 74.1 18358 120.2 17277 115.1 -5.9% -4.3%

Source: GTA

Discussion

Trade with Western Pacific Rim countries has been described as being considerably more difficult to

effect at satisfactory prices over the last six months than was the case in 2011. There have been

notable exceptions such as the Philippines, Japan, and Hong Kong as can be seen in the trade table

above.

One of the big impediments that beef exporters have faced over the last three years is appreciation of

the NZ dollar. The pricing chart below reveals that on the basis of U.S. dollars, beef prices received by

NZ exporters are trending upwards. However, the subsequent two charts reflect the appreciation of

the NZ dollar against the U.S. dollar, and the result of that appreciation on beef prices once the

receipts are repatriated into NZ Dollars. The general shape of the price lines in the third chart is flat

over time with no trend readily discernable. Of course exceptions can be found: one is shown in the

Page 12: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

chart for farm gate prices for bull beef reported earlier in this report which shows a definite upward

trend for both USD pricing and in NZD pricing at the farm gate. However the chart following that price

analysis shows the ratio of farm gate prices to FOB prices. Generally over the last three years this level

has been above trend, which suggests the meat processors have been reducing their margins (and

ultimately profits) to increase farm gate pricing.

Source: GTA

Source: Reserve Bank NZ

Page 13: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

US

Beef exports to the United States in 2013 are forecast at 252,000 MT (CWE), an increase of 5 percent

on the revised 2012 estimate of 240,000 MT.

The beef export statistics tables above show that for the first half of 2012 the tonnage shipped to the

U.S. was up by 7,000 MT PWE or approximately 7% over the same period in 2011. For the first half of

2012 the U.S. took 49.5% of the total amount of beef shipped from NZ versus 46% for the same period

in 2011. This is against the trend over the last decade which has seen the tonnage shipped to the US

drift downwards both absolutely and as a relative proportion of total exports. This has occurred as a

result of two factors:

The volume of bull meat (which is nearly all exported to the US) being produced has reduced as

the relative profitability for bull farming enterprises has waned.

As other destinations such as SE Asia have become more affluent they have become prepared

to pay as much or more than US customers for specific cuts so product has been diverted away

from the US.

The trend for other destinations to pay more for some specific cuts from cow or bull carcasses has

been reversed over the last six months. Signs of this reversal can possibly be detected from the table

above showing the first six months of data for the last 3 years where the value of shipments to the U.S.

has risen more than the tonnage. This is in contrast to most other destinations detailed in the table.

Industry sources expect to send a greater proportion of beef to the US over the next 12 months.

Page 14: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Source: GTA

Source: GTA

Trade Diversification

Page 15: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

Source: GTA

New Zealand Beef Exports - Destination Country Count Calendar Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Number Destinations Shipped To 91 83 77 75 72 87 87 93 86

Source: GTA

The trend for exporters to diversify away from the U.S. market and progressively away from the next

five highest volume markets has certainly been in evidence over the last 5 years. This has been based

on emerging economies generating enough wealth to allow a growing proportion of people to afford

imported beef at prices which have rivaled or surpassed what has been on offer in the U.S. or the

other handful of long standing markets. However it is thought over the next 12 months this trend is

likely to see a leveling off period.

Malaysia

The time consuming process to get slaughter houses certified by Malaysian authorities specifically for

their Halal suitability has progressed over the last year with eight NZ premises now approved to

slaughter beef that can be exported to Malaysia. This is up from two plants in 2010. The trade data

show a corresponding jump in exports for the first half of 2012 over the same period in 2011.

However anecdotally this market is not seen as attractive as it once was because prices for the lower

value cuts sent there are presently not as good relative to other potential destinations. Some of this

could be attributed to the lower-priced Indian “carra-beef” (of buffalo origin) which is said to be

arriving in Malaysia in greater quantities.

China

Industry commentators are saying that while the China-NZ FTA is working well for some industry

sectors (dairy especially) it hasn’t made any real difference in access for beef. This is in contrast to

sheep meat which enjoys reportedly satisfactory access. Lamb exports to China have boomed in 2012.

Page 16: New Zealand Livestock and Products Annual Annual · 2012. 9. 6. · Report Highlights: New Zealand cattle slaughter numbers are projected to remain relatively stable into 2013, and

According to the Ministry for Primary Industry (MPI) as of August 2, 2012 there were six NZ beef

processing plants approved for export to China, and a further 16 sheep and beef processing sites. Part

of the frustration expressed by the beef industry is the insistence by Chinese authorities on approving

each site/plant individually, where as the NZ industry maintains that under the FTA, MPI would

negotiate a blanket approval for the whole country with the Chinese Government. Some of the

problems with approvals have been to do with the physical layout of the plants.

Indonesia

The volume being shipped to Indonesia is still in free-fall, down 25% in the first six months of 2012

compared to the same period in 2011. This comes on the back of a 44% reduction in 2011 exports

compared to 2010. This reduction is basically because not enough import licenses are available at a

level to optimize trade volumes. The level of import licenses granted is partly related to the stated

objective of the Government of Indonesia to become self-sufficient in meat production. Imports are

being restricted in order to stimulate domestic beef production.

South Korea

NZ-South Korea FTA negotiations have reportedly stalled. This is seen as a serious setback by the NZ

beef trade, as tariff rates are around 40% and now with the U.S./Korea FTA in effect, beef entering

from the U.S. will enjoy a strong tariff advantage. This combined with the competitive U.S. exchange

rate makes US beef very competitive on a price basis. Exporters from NZ say that generally Korean

consumers prefer grain fed beef. Exports to Korea in the first six months of 2012 are 28% lower than

for the same period in 2011. Exporters are focusing on supplying the niche of customers who choose

grass fed beef and prefer its different eating qualities.

Trade Policy, SPS & TBT Issues

Changes to NZ rules regarding importation of US Beef

In June 2011 the then MAF now MPI updated its requirements for imported bovine meat and

products. The full circular can be found at:

http://www.foodsafety.govt.nz/elibrary/industry/Imported_Food_Requirements_Bovine-

Sets_Clearance.pdf

Below is an extract from the circular with the details on the changed importer clearance options:

“3.0 Importer Clearance Options

Bovine Meat and bovine meat products Page 4 of 12 3.3 For bovine meat and bovine meat products,

importers have a responsibility under the Food (Importer General Requirements) Standard 2008 to

ensure imports are of minimal risk BSE. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) is a member of a

family of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). It is a fatal, feed-borne,

neurological disease of cattle. Human infection with the BSE agent (proteinaceous agent known as a

“prion”) has been linked to a variant of the human disease, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). vCJD is a

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very rare food-borne illness in humans, resulting from consumption of products contaminated with

BSE-infected bovine central nervous tissue.

3.4 Consignments captured under these requirements may be cleared by pre-clearance arrangement

ONLY. Such arrangements confirm that products are produced under a programme(s) that manages

the hazards associated with BSE and meets, or is equivalent to, New Zealand’s requirements for BSE-

related measures. All conditions of the pre-clearance arrangement must be met before a product may

be cleared for entry.

3.5 For the purposes of this document, origin includes where the bovine meat product was born,

reared, slaughtered, processed, manufactured and exported from.

3.6 MAF (Food Safety) has pre-clearance arrangements with the countries listed below which allow the

import of bovine meat and bovine meat products into New Zealand:

United States of America – Arrangement covers bovine meat and bovine meat products that are derived from

bovine animals that were slaughtered in the USA, Canada or other country that is permitted to export beef to

New Zealand, were processed/manufactured in the USA or Canada in federally registered and inspected

establishments, and exported from the United States. Requirements to be met: Agreed certification issued by

the competent authority of the United States of America must accompany each consignment.”

National Animal Identification and Tracing Scheme (NAIT)

NAIT finally became mandatory for all cattle on July 1, 2012. Now all cattle must be tagged with

approved RFID tags and all cattle transfers between farms, to sale yards or to slaughter must be

accounted for to the central NAIT database. NAIT is administered by an agency which is part of MPI.

NAIT will also incorporate the cattle tagging and transfer administration of the Animal Health Board

whose mission is to eradicate bovine tuberculosis from New Zealand.

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Source: Taranaki Daily News