NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of … · 2020-05-05 · NEW YORK CITY...
Transcript of NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of … · 2020-05-05 · NEW YORK CITY...
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 2
Comptroller's FY21 Executive Budget
Presentation
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 4
Steepest Recession in Postwar History
-2.4%-3.0% -3.1%
-2.5%
-4.0%
-7.9%
Korean War1954 1957
Oil Shock1974
"Volcker" Recession1982
Great Recession2009
COVID-192020
Percent Change in U.S. Gross Domestic Product
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 5
Unemployment Rate Highest in Postwar History
8.5%10.1%
3.8%
22.0%
9/11 Great Recession Pre-COVID This Quarter
NYC Quarterly Unemployment Rate
We will lose more than900,000jobs this quarter.
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 6
Job Losses By Sector
600 2,900
8,400 10,200
13,600 25,700 26,400 27,400 27,900
34,700 39,300
48,900 54,400
63,200 159,700
178,000 184,300
UtilitiesManagement of Companies and Enterprises
InformationEducational Services
Financial ActivitiesTransportation and Warehousing
Real EstateManufacturing
Wholesale TradeAdministrative Services
Other ServicesArts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesConstruction
Health Care and Social AssistanceRetail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 7
People of Color, Immigrants On the Frontlines
• 70% are people of color• 43% are immigrants• 52% are women• Average wage: $38,924
SOURCE: American Community Survey, for occupations in the following groups: EAT, ENT, PRS, SAL
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 8
Deep but “V”-shaped Recovery?
-1,000 K
-800 K
-600 K
-400 K
-200 K
0 K
200 K
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Number of Quarters to Return to Pre-Recession Employment
9/11217,000 jobs lost
COVID-19906,000 jobs lost
Great Recession133,000 jobs lost
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 10
What Shape Will Recovery Take?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Number of Quarters to Return to Pre-Recession Employment
“V”
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 11
What Shape Will Recovery Take?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Number of Quarters to Return to Pre-Recession Employment
“U”
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 12
What Shape Will Recovery Take?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Number of Quarters to Return to Pre-Recession Employment
“W”
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 13
The Outlook: Tremendous Uncertainties
Joshua Lombard / Shutterstock.com
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 15
The January Preliminary Budget
$95.4 $95.3
$97.6
$100.1
$101.8
$95.4 $95.3
$100.1
$102.8
$104.5
$88 B
$90 B
$92 B
$94 B
$96 B
$98 B
$100 B
$102 B
$104 B
$106 B
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Expenditures
Revenues
$2.7
$2.7
$2.5
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 16
The Executive Budget Gap
FY 2020 FY 2021 CombinedTax Revenues $2.2 B $5.2 B $7.4 BNon-Tax Revenues $232 M $227 M $459 MState Budget Impact $34 M $763 M $797 MAll Other Changes, Net $55 M -$43 M $12 MTOTAL $2.6 B $6.1 B $8.7 B
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 18
Closing the Gap
Federal Aid$1.99 B
TOTAL$8.7 B
23%
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 19
Closing the Gap
Federal Aid$1.99 B
PEG Program$2.66 B
TOTAL$8.7 B
23%
31%
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 20
Closing the Gap
Federal Aid$1.99 B
PEG Program$2.66 B
Reserves$4.03 B
TOTAL$8.7 B
23%
31%
46%
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 22
Federal Aid: Some Help, But Not Enough
$498 M $444 M
$250 M
$800 M
$600 M
FY 2020 FY 2021
CARES Act/FEMACoronavirus Relief FundFEMA ReimbursementEnhanced FMAP
$2.15 B
$444 M
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 23
We Need Agencies to SAVE
$0 M
$200 M
$400 M
$600 M
$800 M
$1,000 M
$1,200 M
$1,400 M
$1,600 M
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Recurring Efficiencies and Reductions
Accruals, Reestimates & Funding Shifts
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 24
We Need Agencies to SAVE
$0 M
$200 M
$400 M
$600 M
$800 M
$1,000 M
$1,200 M
$1,400 M
$1,600 M
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
COVID-Related Program Suspensions & Delays
Recurring Efficiencies and Reductions
Accruals, Reestimates & Funding Shifts
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 25
We Need Agencies to SAVE
1.6%1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
$0 M
$200 M
$400 M
$600 M
$800 M
$1,000 M
$1,200 M
$1,400 M
$1,600 M
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
COVID-Related Program Suspensions & Delays
Recurring Efficiencies and Reductions
Accruals, Reestimates & Funding Shifts
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 26
We Need Agencies to SAVE
$296 M
$903 M $921 M $926 M
$0 M
$200 M
$400 M
$600 M
$800 M
$1,000 M
$1,200 M
$1,400 M
$1,600 M
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
4% Target
4% recurring savings target
would yield another
$1 billion annually
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 27
Consistent effort to bring us to minimum
12% cushion would have meant an additional$1.2 billionavailable this year
A Consistent Savings Plan Would Have Paid Off
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Budget Cushion; January Plan Budget Cushion at 12%
Perc
ent o
f Adj
uste
d Ex
pend
iture
s
An additional $1.2 billion
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 28
Reserves Are Shrinking
$0.0 B
$1.0 B
$2.0 B
$3.0 B
$4.0 B
$5.0 B
$6.0 B
$7.0 B
FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024
Retiree Health Benefit Trust
Contingency Reserves$6.1 B
$3.8 B$3.3 B
$1.25 B $1.25 B
$100 M
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 29
The April Executive Budget
$97.4
$89.3
$94.4
$97.4$98.8
$97.5
$89.3
$99.4
$102.0$103.7
$85 B
$90 B
$95 B
$100 B
$105 B
$110 B
FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Expenditures
Revenues$4.9
$4.5
$5.0
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 30
New Developments: State Budget Update
$13 billion budget gap
$8.2 billion in local aid cuts
Potentially $3+ billion in cuts to New York City
$2 billion in education cuts?
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 31
Each Recession is Unique …
9/11(FYs 2002-04)
Great Recession(FYs 2009-12)
COVID-19(FY 2020 - ?)
• 217,000 jobs lost6 years to recover
• 133,000 jobs lost3 years to recover
• 900,000 jobs lostDuration?
• Budget cushion: 3% of spending
• Budget cushion: 18% of spending
• Budget cushion: 8% of spending
• Spending cuts;Tax increases;Borrowing
• Spending cuts;Tax increases
Federal assistance
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 33
Montana
Cases Coronavirus Relief Funding per case
457 $2,735,230
Funding Must be Allocated Based on Need
New York City
Cases Coronavirus Relief Funding per case
170,534 $8,530
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 34
New York’s Taxes Are Paying for COVID Response Nationally
State Balance of Payments
New York -$35.6 B
New Jersey -$21.3 B
Massachusetts -$16.1 B
Connecticut -$14.4 B
Montana $4.19 B
Kentucky $40.7 B
Florida $45.9 BSOURCE: SUNY Rockefeller Institute of Government
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 35
1970s 9/11 Superstorm Sandy
Anthony Correia / Shutterstock.com Brian Derr / Shutterstock.comNew York Daily News
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 36
a katz / Shutterstock.com Aleksandr Dyskin / Shutterstock.com
Daniel Ferrer Paez / Shutterstock.com
Josh Forden / Shutterstock.com
NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER Bureau of Budget | 37
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