New Trends in the European Real New Trends in the European ... · 1 11:15 – 12:30 - Panel 2 -...
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1 11:15 – 12:30 - Panel 2 - Mirus “New Trends in the European Real Estate Markets: French REITs Success Stories” “ “ New Trends in the European Real New Trends in the European Real Estate Markets: French REITs Estate Markets: French REITs Success Stories Success Stories ” ”
Transcript of New Trends in the European Real New Trends in the European ... · 1 11:15 – 12:30 - Panel 2 -...
1
11:15 – 12:30 - Panel 2 - Mirus
“New Trends in the European Real Estate Markets: French REITs
Success Stories”
““New Trends in the European Real New Trends in the European Real Estate Markets: French REITs Estate Markets: French REITs
Success StoriesSuccess Stories””
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Have you investedHave you investedin Paris yet ?in Paris yet ?
Alain BéchadeChairman of the Executive Board
Atisreal
3GDP AND EMPLOYMENT GDP AND EMPLOYMENT France France
source : INSEE
GDP Growth (rolling year) Change in employment in France
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2003 2004 2005 2006
-200 000
-150 000
-100 000
-50 000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
since 2005 : job creation threshold + 1.0 %
%
(rolling year)
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
4
TAKETAKE--UPUP
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
m²2 757 000 m²
1 713 000 m²
1 547 000 m²1 690 000 m²
1 930 000 m²2 165 000 m²
2 026 000 m²
Source : Immostat
< 5 000 m² > 5 000 m²
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
5TAKETAKE--UPUP((rollingrolling yearyear))
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
05Q3
06Q3
05Q3
06Q3
05Q3
06Q3
05Q3
06Q3
05Q3
06Q3
05Q3
06Q3
m²
CBD Outside CBD
La Défense
Paris
Western BusinessDistricts
North SouthNorthern Loop
< 5 000 m² > 5 000 m²
Source : Immostat Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
6
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000
m²
OuterSuburbsSouth
Inner SuburbsNorth
Paris CBD Etoile
Inner SuburbsEast
OuterSuburbs
East
OuterSuburbsSouth
Paris CBD Opéra
Western Business District
North
La Défense
Paris 12/13
Paris North-East
Take-up 12 months
Supp
ly
EQUILIBRIUM
Supply < Take-up
UNDER-SUPPLY
OVER-SUPPLY
Supply > 2 twice Take-up
m²
SPLIT BY AREASSPLIT BY AREAS
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
7VACANCY RATEVACANCY RATE
3.0%
5.7%
13.2 %
5.2 %5.0%
7.5 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q31997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2006
Paris CBDParis outside CBDLa DéfenseNorthern Inner SuburbsIle-de-FranceWestern Business Districts - North
equilibrium
%
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
8
SUPPLY AVAILABLE WITHIN ONE YEARSUPPLY AVAILABLE WITHIN ONE YEAR
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006Q1
2006Q3
NewSecond-hand
1 709 000
3 590 000
m²
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
9NEW OFFICE MARKETNEW OFFICE MARKET
Take-up(rolling year)
Vacant space Under construction
602 000
1 067 875
257 000
473 754
1 141 000
951 587
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Q3
m²
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
10OFFICE MARKET CYCLEOFFICE MARKET CYCLEIN ILEIN ILE--DEDE--FRANCEFRANCE
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
m²
Supply Take-up
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
11AVERAGE RENTSAVERAGE RENTS((MovingMoving averageaverage basedbased on on threethree quartersquarters))
< 500 m² 500 – 2,000 > 2,000 m² < 500 m² 500 – 2,000 > 2,000 m²
463 602 605 Paris CBD 402 475 536
ns 515 502 Paris 12/13 276 301 435
ns 508 452 La Défense 313 339 338
259 347 363 Western Business District North 270 294 348
ns 360** 394* Western Business District South 250 298 269
202 256 272 Northern Inner Suburbs 164 169* 229
ns ns 275 Eastern Inner Suburbs 153 156 ns* Last known value : 2006-T2** Last known value : 2006-T1ns : N/A
New Second-hand€/m²/year excl. VAT and charges
Paris Market
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
12
IncentiveIncentive measuresmeasures in 2006in 2006
8 8 8 8
36 8
22 21 22 22 2118
10
16 15 1412 12 11
9
0
10
20
30
40
NorthernInner
Suburbs
La Défense OuterSuburbs
WesternBusinessDistrict
Paris CBD Parisoutside
CBD
EasternInner
Suburbs
2006 Min 2006 Max 2006 Average%
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
13COMPANIESCOMPANIES’’ PROFIT MARGINPROFIT MARGIN
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
%
Source : INSEE Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
14BT01 (construction BT01 (construction costcost index) index) andandICC (construction ICC (construction priceprice index)index)
source : INSEE Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
5.4%
0.5%
7.1%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
BT01
ICC
Average since 2001
: 3.30 %
: 3.60 %%
15INVESTMENT IN FRINVESTMENT IN FRAANNCCEEin commercial in commercial realreal estateestate
3,2 1,9 2,0 1,6 2,5 3,20
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20069 months
2006
User sales
Investor sales
Developer sales
billion €
11.710.4 11.0
12.7
17.019.2
≈25.0
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
16MAIN INVESTORSMAIN INVESTORS’’ CATEGORIESCATEGORIESin commercial in commercial realreal estateestate
Sales Purchases
Developers
Users
Other
Opportunity Funds
Banks
Non-trading real estate investment trusts
Insurance
Property companies except SIIC
SIIC – French REITS
Medium and long term funds
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
billion €
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
17SHARE OF PORTFOLIOSHARE OF PORTFOLIOin commercial in commercial realreal estateestate
39%26% 15%
29% 30% 31%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Single building
portfoliobillion €
11.710.4
11.012.7
17.019.2
20069 months
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
18DEVELOPERSDEVELOPERS’’ SALESSALESin commercial in commercial realreal estateestate
31%37% 45%
38%40%
40%
0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Rented
Speculative3.2
1.92.0
1.6
2.5
3.2
20069 months
billion €
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
19PRIME YIELDSPRIME YIELDS
Rented Offices
6.1%
6.8%
4.9%
5.7%5.5%5.5%
4.9%
6.0%
4.6%
6.0%
4.5%
4.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
ParisCBD
Parisoutside
CBD
LaDéfense WBD
outsideLa
Défense
InnerSuburbs
OuterSuburbs Regions
2005 Sept 2006
%
Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
2010 YEARS GOVERNMENT BONDS AND10 YEARS GOVERNMENT BONDS ANDPRIME YIELDSPRIME YIELDS
3.8
9.9
4.5
6.5 6.3
4.5
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06Q1
06Q2
06Q3
Bonds Prime Yields in Paris CBD
%
source : Banque de France Études & Recherche – octobre 2006
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New York, Monday, October 23, 2006
