New Technology Lecture L04 Adjacent Possible
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Transcript of New Technology Lecture L04 Adjacent Possible
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Lecture L04 ADJACENT POSSIBLE
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Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
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The S-curve
Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the
technology
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Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double "
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
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The Law of Accelerating ReturnsEvolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to
create the next stage"" "
"As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time
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Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology becomes a source for new
innovations
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Web of Technology
Products are made using different parts using many technologies -
confection of ideas
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Complexity of Technology
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
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Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work evolved from simpler system that worked
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“I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read
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Toaster
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Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project
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"Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster. He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it." Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992
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“And that was something that reoccurred throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale you want to work on, the further back
in time you have to go” - Thomas Thwaites
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The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered, it will “disappear” as
something obvious and trivial, and other more useful things that are
built on top of it
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Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by layer, from simple to complex "
technologies
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Adjacent Possible
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Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
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Ideas usually come at similar timeWho invented the telephone?
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Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used to build new technologies
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Why was the computer invented in the 1940s and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!
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Charles Babbageworked on his difference engine and later analytical engine In 1822-1871
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Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes where used to build computers
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The Second Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914 shaw innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries
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Nikolai Kondratiev
Kondratiev waves are supposedly cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy
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Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Kontrativ Wave
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Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Wave Years
1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842
2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897
3 Age of steel, electricity and internal combustion 1897–1939
4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982
5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??
Kontrativ Wave
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The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current and dominant technology will highly influence and restrict new innovations
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Technology Cramming
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Technology Cramming
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Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the components that exist in
his environmentSteven Johnson
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Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product is restricted by the
prevailing technology, but in the second, there is
something new
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Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the components that exist in
his environmentSteven Johnson
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Next
L05 Innovation