New Precipitation Projections for the Pacific Northwest
Transcript of New Precipitation Projections for the Pacific Northwest
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New Precipitation
Projections for the Pacific Northwest
Photo: Kitsap Sun
Guillaume MaugerUW Climate Impacts Group
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Warner, Mass, Salathé, J Hydromet, 2014
Global models project an increase in heavy rains
Heaviest rain events are projected to become +22% more intense* (range: +5 to +34%) by the 2080s.
* Top 1% of daily rainfall totals in western WA & OR
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2080s
1980s
More Water Vapor
More rain, NOT bigger storms
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More rain, NOT bigger storms
2080s1980s
No change in Winds
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https://twitter.com/LigaDos32
Model Performance
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Model Performance
Two slides: (1) showing correlation / lack thereof + comparison w other datasets, (2) showing maps of biases
WSU Puyallup AgWeatherNet Gauge
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Model Performance: Bias in Total Annual Precip
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Model Performance: Bias in Top 1% Daily Precip
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Model Performance: Bias in Top 1% Hourly Precip
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https://twitter.com/LigaDos32
Findings: Change in Heavy Rains
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Projected Changes for Sea-Tac: 2030s
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Projected Changes for Sea-Tac: 2050s
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Projected Changes for Sea-Tac: 2080s
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Change in the 25-yr storm: 2030s1-hour 24-hour
(Ensemble Average. Relative to 1970-2005)
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1-hour 24-hour
Change in the 25-yr storm: 2050s
(Ensemble Average. Relative to 1970-2005)
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1-hour 24-hour
Change in the 25-yr storm: 2080s
(Ensemble Average. Relative to 1970-2005)
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Guillaume MaugerUW Climate Impacts [email protected](206) 685-0317
Victoria Pinheiro, UW
https://cig.uw.edu/our-work/applied-research/heavy-precip-and-stormwater/
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Substantial Warming, Variable Rainfall
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Results from StatisticalDownscaling
Warm BasinsCold Basins
Salathé et al 2014
It matters how you do it.
2040s, A1B
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Warm BasinsCold Basins
Salathé et al 2014
Results from Dynamical Downscaling
It matters how you do it.
2040s, A1B
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How well do we know our current risk?
“100-year event”