New Marine Weather New Marine Weather Warning ProductWarning Product

Partners MeetingPartners Meeting

June 20, 2007June 20, 2007

Mark TewMark TewMarine Weather Program LeaderMarine Weather Program Leader

Office of Climate, Water and Weather ServicesOffice of Climate, Water and Weather Services

Watch / Warning / AdvisoryWatch / Warning / AdvisoryHow does the rest of NWS do it?How does the rest of NWS do it?

• Winter Weather ProgramWinter Weather Program – – ((WSW)WSW) – Winter Weather Winter Weather WatchWatch– Winter Weather Winter Weather WarningWarning– Winter Weather Winter Weather AdvisoryAdvisory

• Non-Precipitation Program –Non-Precipitation Program –(NPW)(NPW)– Non-PrecipitationNon-Precipitation Watch Watch– Non-Precipitation Non-Precipitation WarningWarning

– Non-PrecipitationNon-Precipitation Advisory Advisory

• Hydrological ProgramHydrological Program – – (FFA/FLW/FLS)(FFA/FLW/FLS)– Flood Flood WatchWatch– Flood Flood WarningWarning – Flood Flood AdvisoryAdvisory

• Coastal Hazards Program – Coastal Hazards Program – (CFW) (CFW) – Coastal Flood Coastal Flood WatchWatch– Coastal Flood Coastal Flood WarningWarning– Coastal Flood Coastal Flood AdvisoryAdvisory

Current Long Duration Marine Current Long Duration Marine Warning ProgramWarning Program

• No Marine Weather WatchNo Marine Weather Watch• No Marine Weather Warning BulletinNo Marine Weather Warning Bulletin• Marine Hazards Headlined in CWF, NSH and GLF Marine Hazards Headlined in CWF, NSH and GLF

– Similar to issuing Blizzard Warnings using the ZFPSimilar to issuing Blizzard Warnings using the ZFP

• CWF and NSH contain VTEC StringsCWF and NSH contain VTEC Strings– Forces permanent VTEC string in forecast products Forces permanent VTEC string in forecast products – ROU – used when no hazards are in effect ROU – used when no hazards are in effect

• GLF has NO VTEC GLF has NO VTEC – VTEC hole in our marine warning program VTEC hole in our marine warning program

• Marine Weather Warnings and Advisories (18 total)Marine Weather Warnings and Advisories (18 total)– Hurricane Force Wind WarningHurricane Force Wind Warning– Storm WarningStorm Warning– Gale WarningGale Warning– Small Craft Advisories Small Craft Advisories – Hurricane/Tropical Storm WarningsHurricane/Tropical Storm Warnings

Small Craft Advisory in CWFSmall Craft Advisory in CWF

ANZ532>534-030815-ANZ532>534-030815-/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0071.060603T1200Z-060604T0100Z//O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0071.060603T1200Z-060604T0100Z/CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT-

423 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006423 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 2 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS. .TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 2 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. .SAT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. WAVES 3 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A.SAT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. WAVES 3 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ACHANCE OF TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. CHANCE OF TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. .SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASINGTO 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 3 FT. TO 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 3 FT.

……etc.etc.

SC.Y inVTEC String

ProposalProposal• Develop New Marine Weather Warning Develop New Marine Weather Warning

Bulletin Bulletin

• MotivationMotivation– Consistency with other warning programsConsistency with other warning programs

• Improves understanding and use of NWS Warning Improves understanding and use of NWS Warning productsproducts

• Standardizes procedures for forecastersStandardizes procedures for forecasters

– Provides needed warning toolProvides needed warning tool• CWF headline practice shows the need for WatchesCWF headline practice shows the need for Watches

– ……Gale Warning Expected Tuesday…Gale Warning Expected Tuesday…

• Vehicle to carry VTEC from CWF and NSH Vehicle to carry VTEC from CWF and NSH

• Fills VTEC Hole in the Open Waters of the Great Lakes Fills VTEC Hole in the Open Waters of the Great Lakes

– Value to Users and PartnersValue to Users and Partners• Allows for more detailed warning informationAllows for more detailed warning information

• Easier to obtain using automated meansEasier to obtain using automated means

Motivation – Value to customersMotivation – Value to customers

• The new Marine Weather The new Marine Weather Warning will allow Warning will allow forecasters to paint a forecasters to paint a picture of the synoptic picture of the synoptic situation and link it to the situation and link it to the resulting hazardous wind resulting hazardous wind or seas situationor seas situation

• Current approach does Current approach does not connect the “why” with not connect the “why” with the “what”the “what”

Marine Wind Watch – MWWMarine Wind Watch – MWWOverview:Overview:

……GALE WINDS EXPECTED FROM PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE GALE WINDS EXPECTED FROM PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM ON FRIDAY…MENDOCINO FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM ON FRIDAY…

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL .STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM AND REACH THE HIGHEST APPROACH OF THE STORM AND REACH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SPEEDS ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.

Marine Wind Watch – MWWMarine Wind Watch – MWW Segment:Segment:

PZZ470-081700-PZZ470-081700-

/O.NEW.KEKA./O.NEW.KEKA.GL.AGL.A.0001.081010T0100Z-081010T0100Z/ .0001.081010T0100Z-081010T0100Z/

PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 20 TO 60 NM- PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 20 TO 60 NM-

11 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2008 11 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2008

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY…...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY…

SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH SOUTH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL TO SHIFT TO THE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 MPH BY FRIDAY EVENING WEST AND DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 MPH BY FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$$$

New GL.A in MWW VTEC String

Hazardous Seas Warning - Hazardous Seas Warning - MWWMWW

PZZ470-091700-PZZ470-091700- /O.NEW.KEKA./O.NEW.KEKA.SE.WSE.W.0001.081009T1300Z-081009T1200Z/ .0001.081009T1300Z-081009T1200Z/ PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 20 TO 60 NM- PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 20 TO 60 NM- 4 PM PDT WED OCT 8 20084 PM PDT WED OCT 8 2008

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT… THURSDAY NIGHT…

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL RESULTING FROM A LOW PRESSURE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL RESULTING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SEAS RISING TO 25 FEET BY CALIFORNIA WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SEAS RISING TO 25 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS 18 TO 20 SECONDS. AT THE THURSDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS 18 TO 20 SECONDS. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS SAME TIME...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...CREATING A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF INCREASING TONIGHT...CREATING A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 BY FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND SWELLS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 FEET. KNOTS...AND SWELLS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 FEET.

SE.W in MWW VTEC String

Partner AcceptancePartner Acceptance

• MWW Proposal endorsed by National PartnersMWW Proposal endorsed by National Partners– Presented at Partners Meeting in June 2006Presented at Partners Meeting in June 2006– Prefer VTEC in one hazard product like WSW & NPWPrefer VTEC in one hazard product like WSW & NPW

• Problems decoding VTEC in two forecast productsProblems decoding VTEC in two forecast products• Both contain “ROU” codesBoth contain “ROU” codes

• MWW Supported by Great Lakes Users – Feb 07MWW Supported by Great Lakes Users – Feb 07– Lake Carriers Association & International Ship MastersLake Carriers Association & International Ship Masters

• Formally approved the MWW proposal Formally approved the MWW proposal

– USCG Ninth District USCG Ninth District • MWW would improve the dispatching of ships for search and MWW would improve the dispatching of ships for search and

rescue operationsrescue operations• Provide more meteorology (the why) for staff briefingsProvide more meteorology (the why) for staff briefings

Requirements DevelopmentRequirements Development

• Chartered MWW Improvement Team Chartered MWW Improvement Team – Developed Requirements and Project PlanDeveloped Requirements and Project Plan

• MWW FormatterMWW Formatter– Developed by SOO at WFO DetroitDeveloped by SOO at WFO Detroit– Prototype transfer of field development to AWIPS baselinePrototype transfer of field development to AWIPS baseline– Expedite product implementationExpedite product implementation

• Establish MWW Test SitesEstablish MWW Test Sites– Six WFOs will experimentally test the MWW on Aug 1, 2007Six WFOs will experimentally test the MWW on Aug 1, 2007– Issue experimental MWW with “E” VTECIssue experimental MWW with “E” VTEC– Continue operational VTEC in CWF and NSHContinue operational VTEC in CWF and NSH

• Evaluation of MWW ProductsEvaluation of MWW Products– Provide demonstration results and customer feedback Provide demonstration results and customer feedback

• Target – AWIPS OB8.3 for Implementation in Fall Target – AWIPS OB8.3 for Implementation in Fall 20082008

MWW WFO Test SitesMWW WFO Test Sites

• DTX – Detroit/Pontiac, CRDTX – Detroit/Pontiac, CR

• BUF – Buffalo, ER BUF – Buffalo, ER

• CAR – Caribou, ER CAR – Caribou, ER

• HFO – Honolulu, PR HFO – Honolulu, PR

• TAE – Tampa Bay, SR TAE – Tampa Bay, SR

• MFR – Medford, WR MFR – Medford, WR

MWW Key MilestonesMWW Key MilestonesDateDate ActionAction StatusStatus

Jun 2006Jun 2006 MWW proposal accepted – MWW proposal accepted – WFO Eureka and WRHWFO Eureka and WRH CompleteCompleteJun 2006Jun 2006 MWW endorsed at Partners MeetingMWW endorsed at Partners Meeting CompleteCompleteNov 2006Nov 2006 MWW team chartered – MWW team chartered – 1 to 2 members from each region1 to 2 members from each region CompleteComplete

Feb 2006Feb 2006 MWW approved by Great Lakes Marine Users (LCA, USCG, MWW approved by Great Lakes Marine Users (LCA, USCG, ISMA)ISMA) CompleteComplete

Apr 2007Apr 2007 Develop MWW OSIP requirements – Develop MWW OSIP requirements – Approved through Gate 2Approved through Gate 2 CompleteCompleteJun 2007Jun 2007 Develop MWW formatter – Develop MWW formatter – SOO WFO DTXSOO WFO DTX CompleteComplete

Jun 2007Jun 2007 Present MWW Status at NWS Partners MeetingPresent MWW Status at NWS Partners Meeting In In ProgressProgress

Jun 2007Jun 2007 Test MWW formatter at NWSH AWIPs Workstation – Test MWW formatter at NWSH AWIPs Workstation – Field Field forecastersforecasters

In In ProgressProgress

Jul 2007Jul 2007 Draft new MWW Directive: NWSI 10-315Draft new MWW Directive: NWSI 10-315 In In ProgressProgress

Jul 2007Jul 2007 Develop MWW Product Description DocumentDevelop MWW Product Description Document In In ProgressProgress

Jul 2007Jul 2007 Issue PNS to announce experimental test of MWWIssue PNS to announce experimental test of MWW In In ProgressProgress

Aug - Sep Aug - Sep 20072007 Begin OT&E of experimental MWW at six WFOsBegin OT&E of experimental MWW at six WFOs Low RiskLow Risk

Sep 2007Sep 2007 Evaluate MWW Test Results – Evaluate MWW Test Results – Verify 95%(Verify 95%(++ 5%) error free 5%) error free productsproducts Low RiskLow Risk

Nov 2007Nov 2007 MWW formatter transferred into AWIPS OB8.3 baseline MWW formatter transferred into AWIPS OB8.3 baseline deliverydelivery Med RiskMed Risk

May 2008May 2008 Issue National MWW SCN for all marine WFOs except AR Issue National MWW SCN for all marine WFOs except AR Low RiskLow Risk

Fall 2008Fall 2008 MWW operational implementation – MWW operational implementation – Exception AR, later Exception AR, later timelinetimeline

Med RiskMed Risk

Partner FeedbackPartner Feedback

Any Questions or Comments? Any Questions or Comments?

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