New Industries: Helping Students Create Them

Helping Students Create New Industries: When Might a New Technology Provide

a Superior Value Proposition?

Associate Professor Jeffrey FunkDivision of Engineering and Technology

ManagementNational University of Singapore

Basic Course Objectives

• To learn how to search for, evaluate, and ask questions about new technological opportunities either as an – entrepreneur– employee of a large company

• To do this for a specific technology within*– Computers, related products, utility computing– Internet content and applications– Other electronic systems – Semiconductors/displays/bio-

electronics/photonics/nanotechnology– Wind, solar, and other energy

• To present your findings in an end-of year presentation*See me if you would like to pursue another technology

Change Provides Opportunities

• Technology– Magnitude of the change is important (e.g., technological

discontinuities)– Changes in general (Integrated Circuits, Internet) technologies provide

more opportunities than special technologies• Political and regulatory rules

– Licenses– Environmental and safety rules

• Social and demographic factors– More women in the workforce– Increased incomes– Aging society

• Industry structure – Vertical disintegration– Lower capital intensity

Example of How Changes Lead to Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Opportunity(Frozen Foods)

Increase in Working Women

Social: Higher Disposable Income

Industry Structure:More discount grocery chains

Technology: forproducing, storing and selling frozen food

Source: Baron and Shane, 2005

This Course Focuses on Technological Change

• Reasons for focusing on technological change– most venture capital is in industries with lots of

technological change: information technology, bio-technology, telecommunications, semiconductors, clean energy

– technological change makes new industries technologically and economically feasible

– other course in our program (ETM) focus on commercialization of new technology (e.g., business models are the focus of another course)

U.S. Venture Capital Funding (B$) is Partly Driven by High Frequency of Technological Change (2006 data)

Software 5.1Communications & Networking 3.0Semiconductors 1.6Other IT 2.2

Total IT 11.9Biopharmaceutical 3.8 Medical devices 2.0Other healthcare 1.0

Total healthcare 6.9Other industries 3.5Total all industries 22.3

Source: Dow Jones 2006 Venture Capital Industry Report

Number of U.S. Firms Receiving Venture Capital Funding

Source: Dow Jones Venture Capital Industry Report

Industry Group Industry Segment 2000 2005Healthcare Biopharmaceuticals 338 244

Services 53 43

Medical devices 228 195

Medical Information Systems 210 54

Total 829 537

Information Technology

Broadcasting and Cable 17 6

Other Communications & Networking 808 181

Electronics & Computer Hardware 157 106

Information Services 627 116

Semiconductors 254 141

Software 1790 690

Total 3653 1276

Other 1834 426

Grand Total 6316 2239

• http://fis.dowjones.com/VS/4QUSFinancing.html

Technological Change

• Some industries experience more technological change than other industries

• Lots of technological change in electronic industries

• Less change in mechanical equipment such as machinery, transportation equipment, energy

• Many people forget this when they think about the future

Ray Kurzweil Has Interesting Insights on Technological Change

• Founder of more than 10 companies• Recipient of

– more than 100 patents – More than 10 honorary doctorates

• Author of many books including three best sellers on technology change– The Singularity is Near, The Age of Spiritual Machines– The Age of Intelligent Machines

• Founder of Singularity University in 2009– http://singularityu.org/– http://ux4dotcom.blogspot.com/2009/08/ray-kurzweil-talk-

about-singularity.html– http://www.ted.com/– http://www.tedxsingapore.sg/topted.php

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Component Measure of Performance Rate of Improvement (OOM: orders of magnitude)

Integrated circuits Feature sizeDefect densityDie sizeNumber of transistors/chip

>2 OOM in 40 years>3 OOM in 40 years>30 times in 25 years9 OOM in 50 years

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs)

Luminescence per Watt 3 OOM in 50 years

Semiconductor/LCD Manufacturing Equipment

Minimum feature size in semiconductors

500 times reductions in 40 years

Cost per area of LCDs 20 times cost reduction between 1995 and 2005

Hard disk platters Areal storage density 5 OOM in 40 years

Magnetic Tape Areal storage density 5 OOM in 45 years

Glass fiber Spectral loss 2 OOM in 10 years

Optical fiber Information capacity (bits/sec)Cost per bit

Five OOM in 20 yearsSix times reduction in 25 years

Optical discs CapacityTransfer rates

10 times in 10 years3 OOM in 10 years

Components with Exponential Rates of Improvement

Selected Components from Previous Slide

Systems whose Performance is Impacted on by Improvements in the Component

Semiconductors and Integrated circuits

Many electronic products such as computers (9 OoM improvement in cost per speed in 60 years) and digital cameras (300 times improvement in pixels per dollar between 1996 and 2007)

Hard Disk Platters Hard Disk Drives

Magnetic tape Computers, music and video recorders/ players

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) Instruments, electronic products and potentially lighting systems

Liquid crystal displays (LCDs) Many electronic products including computers and phones

Glass fiber and semiconductor lasers Telecommunication systems

Optical discs and lasers Music and video recording and playback

Examples of Systems Whose Performance has been Strongly Impacted on by Exponential Improvements in Specific Components

Components Systems Examples of DiscontinuitiesIntegrated circuits

Computers Mini-computers, personal computers, laptop computers, hand-held computers

Mobile phones Analog, digital, third generation systems, mobile Internet

Consumer electronics Transistor-based devices, Digital devices

Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment

Semiconductors Integrated Circuits, Microprocessors, Memory, Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs)

Displays Active-matrix liquid crystal displays

Magnetic tape Music recording & playback Reel-to reel tape, 8-Track tape, Cassette tapes

Video recording & playback Quadruplex, Helical Scan (e.g., VHS), Video cameras

Hard disk platters Hard Disk Drives 8”, 5.25”, and smaller disk drives

Glass fiber, semiconductor laser, light amplifiers

Music recording & playback Compact discs

Video recording & playback First and Second Generation DVDs

Telecommunication Fiber optics, all optical systems

Examples of Discontinuities in Systems that are a Result (at leastindirectly) of Exponential Improvements in the Component

Is Technology Change Easy to Interpret?• Consider the mobile Internet

– During Internet boom around 2000, Western firms attempted to introduce sophisticated mobile content and services such as location-based ones that were not possible with micro-processors, memory chips, displays, and networks that were available for phones at that time

– The result was that billions of dollars were wasted – 10 years later these sophisticated services have become

possible– It’s all about timing

• Now the world is betting on a set of clean energy technologies that may not have the necessary supporting technologies or the potential for improvements

• Lesson - be careful of hype!

Outline for Tonight

• What drives technology change?• What drives improvements in technology?• Technological discontinuities and technology

paradigms (including geometric scaling)• What I expect/method of grading• A simple example• Overview of schedule for module

Linear Models of Innovation

• Schumpeter: Invention (new concept), Innovation (commercialization of discontinuity), Diffusion

• Science (new concept) and Technology (commercialization of a discontinuity)

• Research (new concept) and Development (commercialization of a discontinuity) where research can be divided into basic and applied research

Exceptions to the Linear Model

• New technologies sometimes lead to advances in science. Better– telescopes led to advances in astronomy– microscopes led to advances in biology– scanning electron microscopes led to advances in materials

• Growth in the market for a technology can lead to greater funding for science. For example, growth in markets– for steam engines in 18th and 19th centuries led to advances

in thermodynamics– for transistors in 1950s led to increased research on solid

state physics for semiconductors

Nevertheless

• In general advances in science facilitate improvements in technology and the introduction of new designs

• Thus, advances science play an important role in improving a technology and introducing new designs– One key area is new materials, that better exploit a

physical phenomenon such as thermionic emission, photovoltaic effect, electro-luminescence

One Key Issue• Why is their a time lag between advances in science

and the commercialization of the technology that is based on this science

• For example, Charles Babbage conceived of the computer in the early 1800s but it was not commercialized until much later– Late 1800s: mechanical computer (punch cards)– 1950s: electronic computers

• Why?– Concept of stored program control was added to Babbage’s

concept in 1930s and 1940s – Electronic components with adequate speeds were not

available until 1940s

Outline for Tonight



Conventional Wisdom

• Costs fall as cumulative production grows in a so-called learning or experience curve as automated manufacturing equipment is – introduced and – organized into flow lines

• Implications: stimulating demand will lead to cost reductions. This is one reason why many governments subsidize the introduction of clean energy more than they subsidize R&D spending

• Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation also implies that increases in demand will lead to reductions in cost and improvements in performance

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Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation also implies that performance improvements automaticallyemerge once a low-end innovation has been found

Problems with Learning Curve• Learning curve cannot be used until production of the final product

has begun• Learning curve does not help us understand why some

technologies experience more improvements in cost and performance than other technologies

• An emphasis on cumulative production – focuses analyses on the production of the final product– implies that learning done outside of a factory is either unimportant or is

being driven by the production of the final product• But many cost reductions or performance improvements are the

result of activities done outside of the factory– advances in science– geometric scaling– improvements in complementary technologies such as components

Consider Computers

• Conventional wisdom: costs fall as volumes increase and automated manufacturing equipment is – introduced and organized into flow lines

• Reality– Cost of computers primarily dropped for same reasons that their

performance rose: rapid improvements in integrated circuits (ICs) – Improvements in ICs were only partly from introduction of automated

equipment and their organization into flow lines– Bigger reason was large reductions in scale of transistors, memory cells,

and other dimensional features – These reductions in scale required new manufacturing equipment, which

• depended on advances in science• were largely developed outside of high-volume production facilities

– Rate of implementation depended more on calendar time (think of Moore’s Law) than on cumulative production volumes

Consider Clean Energy

• Conventional Wisdom– Costs fall as more electric vehicles, wind turbines, and

solar cells are produced• Reality

– Electric vehicles: batteries are key technology and their energy density depends on finding more appropriate materials and reducing scale of nano-particles

– Wind turbines: costs fall as scale of turbines are increased– Solar cells: scientists increase efficiencies, reduce material

thicknesses, and increase scale of production equipment

As Bill Gates said in 2010 interview

• “The irony is that if you actually look at the amount of money that’s been spent on feed-in tariffs and you properly account for it — tax credits, feed-in credits in Spain, solar photovoltaic stuff in Germany — the world has spent a massive amount of money which, in terms of creating both jobs and knowledge, would have been far better spent on energy research.” He also argues that funding theses supply-side approaches would require very little money. “I was stunned, when I did the work with the AEIC (American Energy Innovation Council), to see that if you wanted the U.S. energy industry as a whole to fund this R&D, you’d only have to tax energy 1 percent(1).”

•(1) See Jason Pontin’s interview of Bill Gates in Technology Review, Q&A: Bill Gates, The cofounder of Microsoft talks energy, philanthropy and management style, August 24, 2010, http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/26112/page1/, accessed on August 26, 2010

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Models are Important

• They encourage you to look in certain places• But if they are wrong, they are encouraging you to

look in the wrong places• The learning curve implies that

– improvements primarily come from activities done in production facilities

– Thus, we should • increase volumes of the final product• subsidize the final product in order to experience increased

volumes

– In reality, technological change is much more complex

Outline for Tonight



Cyclical Model of Technological Change

Technological Discontinuity

CompetitionBetween AlternativeSystems or Designs

Emergence of a Dominant design/architecture (includes interface standards, new value chains/value configuration, new levels of vertical integration or disintegration)

Incremental Change

Adapted from (Anderson and Tushman, 1990; Tushman and Rosenkopf, 1992)

Technological Discontinuities vs. Dominant Designs

• Technological discontinuities (Henderson and Clark, 1990) change the – concepts (i.e., advances in science) that form that

basis of a product/system or process– linkages between major components in the

product/system, i.e., architecture• “A dominant design is a single architecture that

establishes dominance in a single product class” (Tushman and Rosenkopf, 1992)

One Classification of Technological Discontinuities

Reinforced OverturnedCore Concepts

Unchanged

ChangedLink

ages

Bet

wee

n C

ore

Con

cept

s and

Com

pone

nts

IncrementalInnovation

ModularInnovation

ArchitecturalInnovation

RadicalInnovation

Source: Henderson and Clark (1990)

Henderson and Clark’s Innovation Framework Applied to Ceiling Fans

Reinforced OverturnedCore Concepts

Unchanged

ChangedLink

ages

Bet

wee

n C

ore

Con

cept

s and

Com

pone

nts

Improvementsin Blade or Motor Design

Completely newform of motor

Portable Fans Air Conditioners

Steam-powered fire engine

Technological Discontinuities: What was change in concepts?

PreviousSystem

Disconti-nuity

Early Benz (1894) Wright Brothers (1904)

Gliders (18th Century)

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Why did they diffuse?

• New technologies diffuse because they offer a superior value proposition to some set of users

• This will be discussed throughout this semester

Why did they emerge?

• Market Pull?

• Technology Push?

Both Played a Role

• Without some pull from market, automobiles or aircraft would not have emerged

• Without some potential for improvements in internal combustion engine, automobiles or aircraft would not have emerged

What Determines Potentialof New Technologies?

• The “concept” that forms the basis for a technological discontinuity tells us something about the potential for a new technology

• A technology paradigm tells us even more about the potential of the technology

One Way to Analyze Potential:Four Elements of a Technology Paradigm

• 1) the basic operation of a technology• 2) its basic method of improvement • 3) the roles of components and scientific

advances in these improvements• 4) the potential limits to the paradigm

Adapted from: Giovanni Dosi and Richard R. Nelson, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes, In Bronwyn H. Hall and and Nathan Rosenberg: Handbook of the Economics of Innovation- Vol-I, Burlington: Academic Press, 2010, pp.51-128.

Technology Basic Paradigm Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology Paradigm

3-TerminalDevice

Amplify, switch or modify electrical signal by controlling movements of electrons between

Vacuumtube

electrodes in vacuum Reduce size and heat loss of filaments (also increase number of electrodes)

Transistor/ integrated

circuit

source and drain in thinlayer of semiconductormaterial

Find better materials. Reduce distance between source and drain increases speed and reduces cost. Use of thinner layers also reduces cost

Technology Paradigms for Information Technologies

• Ability to make transistors smaller than vacuum tubes meant that transistors had more potential for improvements than did vacuum tubes

General Methods or Directions of Improvement (1)

• Methods probably applicable to many technologies – Improve process or material usage efficiencies– Automation

• Methods that may be more applicable to some technologies than to other technologies– Improve efficiency through for example finding materials that better

exploit physical phenomena (See slides on technology paradigm)– Geometric scaling in systems or components (see slides on

geometric scaling) • making the product (or component) much larger or much smaller often

leads to higher performance and lower cost

General Methods/Directions ofImprovement (2)

• Components that benefit from scaling and that strongly impact on performance and cost of systems can drive rapid improvements in system performance and lead to discontinuities in systems– E.g., improvements in ICs (benefited from smaller scale) made

better and new forms of computers, mobile phones, and other electronic products possible

– And they continue to make new forms of electronic products and systems possible

– see slides on “improvements in components and discontinuities in systems” for more details

Technology Sub-Technology Larger or Smaller Specific Type of Geometrical ScalingProductionEquipment

Continuous Flow Larger Cost is function of surface area of pipes and reaction vessels while output is function of volume

Furnaces and smelters

Larger Cost, heat loss are function of surface area and output is function of volume

Discrete Parts and Assemblies

Larger Costs do not rise to the extent that machine speeds do

Energy Steam engines Larger Costs are function of surface area (e.g., of cylinder, piston, boiler) while output is function of volume. Larger sizes enable higher temperatures which lead to higher efficiencies

Steam turbines Larger

Internal combustion engine

Larger

Transpor-tation

Ships Larger Cost per passenger or freight-mile rises as function of a cylinder’s surface area while number of passengers or freight rises as function of cylinder’s volume

Vehicles Larger

Aircraft Larger

Electronics Integrated Circuits Primarily smaller Smaller feature sizes reduce costs per transistor or memory cell and increase performance (density and speed)

Magnetic andoptical storage

Primarily smaller

Primarily smaller

Liquid Crystal Displays

Smaller (thinness) and larger (equipment)

Costs fall as thinner films and larger areas are processed in larger and higher volume equipment

Clean Energy Solar Cells

Wind Turbine Larger Output rises with blade diameter squared while costs rise with diameter

Examples of Geometric Scaling

Outline for Tonight



Grading• No research papers or final exam• Group presentation (70%)

– Each team presentation will be graded– Assessments by peers will be used to assign individual grades– Feedback given on summaries by Session 7 and on

presentation slides in Session 11 • Participation (10%)• Describe entrepreneurial opportunities for technologies

covered in three of the presentations in Sessions 6-10 (15%)– One-half to one page each for three sessions– 5% per page for total of 15%

• Analyze entrepreneurial opportunities for technoolgiescovered in one group presentation in less than one page (5%)

Teams/Groups

• I let you form your own groups/teams in order to make it easier for you to choose a project theme/research topic that is closer to your interests

• Number of students per group– depends on the number of students in the module– if there are about 50 students, each group will consist of 4 to

6 students– if there are about 45 students, each group will consist of 4 to

5 students– If there are about 40 students, each group will consist of 3 to

5 students

Presentation Should Cover• Technology paradigm• Customer needs, i.e., value proposition that

customers desire? • Comparison of new and old technologies with

respect to value proposition• Potential for improvements in the “system” and

“components” including potential for geometric scaling in the system and components

• Types of opportunities that may emerge for different market segments

Grading of Presentations• Creativity (40%)

– grade reflects both choice and analysis of topic– presentations that address interesting and unusual topics will

be graded higher in terms of creativity than presentations that address well-known topics such as the i-Pod, Wii, or i-Phone.

• Thoughtful analysis (40%)– how effectively the presentation analyzes the relevant

technological changes– please include references

• Application of concepts (20%) covered in this and related modules

• In general presentations that refer to technical journals or reports will receive better grades than presentations that only use Wikipedia, Answers.com, HowStuffWorks.com, or slideshare.net

Grading of One-Page Write-Ups

• Similar to grading of presentations– Creativity– Thoughtful analysis– Application of concepts

• Key difference. Grades reflect:– the extent to which the write-up identifies opportunities for

technologies that are covered in Sessions 6-10 – the extent to which the write-up identifies other

opportunities or improvements not covered in the group presentations

• Please upload them to IVLE work-bin within two weeks after the presentation

Although not graded, you should also think about:

• Implications for yourself• Does this technology warrant further analysis by

myself?• Do I have some skills that can be transferred to this

new technology?• For example, if you are a semiconductor engineer, is

the potential for solar energy or new displays large enough for me to consider learning about them? Perhaps you should think about whether you have the skills necessary to quickly learn about these technologies?

Outline for Tonight



Consider Transistors/Integrated Circuits

• Let’s make believe the year is 1962(*) and you are Robert Noyce or Jack Kilby

*Gordon Moore’s famous article was published in 1965

Presentation Should Cover

• Technology paradigm• Customer needs, i.e., value proposition that

customers desire? • Comparison of new and old technologies with

respect to value proposition• Potential for improvements in the “system” and

“components” including potential for geometric scaling in the system and components

• Types of opportunities that may emerge for different market segments

Technology Basic Paradigm Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology Paradigm

3-TerminalDevice

Amplify, switch or modify electrical signal by controlling movements of electrons between

Vacuumtube

electrodes in vacuum Reduce size and heat loss of filaments (also increase number of electrodes)

Transistor/ integrated

circuit

source and drain in thinlayer of semiconductormaterial

Find better materials. Reduce distance between source and drain increases speed and reduces cost. Use of thinner layers also reduces cost

Memory Storage

Save 1s and 0s in a memory cell where value depends on

Integratedcircuits

output voltage Reducing size of cell increases speed and density and reduces cost

Magnetic magnetization of region Reducing size of region reduces cost and increases speed and density

Optical existence of pit in metal disc; formed by semi-conductor laser and read by reflections to photocell

Reducing size of pit with smaller wavelengths reduces cost and increases density and speed

Computers Execute stored programs Initially some increases in scale but later mostly scaled-

Technology Paradigms for Information Technologies

Customer needs, i.e., value proposition that customers desire?

• Fast speeds• Low power consumption• Large range of voltages and frequency

response• Small size• Low manufacturing cost• Low development cost

Comparison of New and Old Technologies (potential) in 1962

Vacuum tubes

ICs

Speeds Better

Power consumption Better

Range of voltage and frequency

Better

Size Better

Manufacturing cost Better

Potential for improvements in “system” and “components” (1)

• Definitions– System – ICs– Components – materials and manufacturing equipment

• Ability to reduce feature sizes (i.e., scaling) because equipment was available to do so (e.g., from nuclear, aerospace, and other industries)– Epitaxial and other deposition equipment – Diffusion (i.e., furnace) and ion implementation equipment – Screen printing equipment– Wet chemical baths

Potential for improvements in “system” and “components” (2)

• Large impact of reduced feature sizes on – Functionality– Speeds– Power consumption (lower per transistor)– Size– Manufacturing costs

• What were (in 1962 terms) the perceived limits to reducing the feature sizes?

• If there are no limits and rapid improvements can be made………………

Types of opportunities that may emerge for different market segments (1)

• Replace vacuum tubes with ICs in relatively low power applications– Computers– Televisions– Radios

• Replace mechanical controls and gears with ICs– Watches– Mechanical calculators– Numerical controlled machine tools– Process controls for chemical plants

• Replace mechanical and other types of sensors with IC-based sensors

Types of opportunities that may emerge for different market segments (2)

• Make new forms of systems possible– Personal computers including portable ones– Mobile phones– Set-top boxes for cable television– Internet

• I don’t expect you to identify these kinds of market opportunities

Types of opportunities that may emerge for “components” in the “system” of IC

production (3)• New equipment is needed for

– Photolithography– Etching– Diffusion– Deposition

• New materials are needed for– Interconnect– gates

0.01K$

0.1K$

1.K$

10.K$

100.K$

1,000.K$

10,000.K$

100,000.K$

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

16 KB 64 KB 256 KB 1 MB 8 MB

System Price K$ = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972)

5x: Memory is 20% of cost3x:DEC markup

.04x: $ per byte

He didn’t believe:The projection500$ machine

He couldn’t comprehend implications

Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... He didn’t believe it!

Source: Jim Gray, Microsoft: slidefinder.net/l/laws_cyberspace/62483

Outline for Tonight



Key Deadlines/Events• Session 4: mail me list of students in your group.

Mail message must include all members in CC. • Session 6: mail me one-page summaries of

proposed presentations• Session 11: review of slides• Sessions 12 and 13: presentations• Two weeks after presentations

– one-page evaluations of speaker and group presentations

Session Activities1 Objectives and overview of course

2 Technology paradigm and the role of science

3 & 4 Geometrical scaling, exponential improvements, and problems with forecasting

5 Components, Systems, and technological discontinuities

6-10 Detailed presentations on 1) Computers, related products, utility computing; 2) Internet content and applications; 3) Other electronic systems; 4) Semiconductors/displays/ nanotechnology/bio-electronics/photonics; 5) Wind, solar, other energy

11 Review of student slides

12-13 Student presentations

Schedule for Module

Helping You Create Your Presentations (1)

• Sessions 2-5 will cover technological change and how we can analyze this change and the implications of this change in more detail

• Sessions 6 through 10 will cover change in four technological areas

Caveat

• I can’t tell you what will happen• I can only tell you why things happened in

the past and how to use past events to analyze the future

• But we know that change is not like– A bolt of lightning– Rabbit out of the hat

• The better your explanation, the better your grade




5 Components, Systems, and technological discontinuities6-10 Detailed presentations on 1) Computers, related products,

utility computing; 2) Internet content and applications; 3) Other electronic systems; 4) Semiconductors/displays/ nanotechnology/bio-electronics; 5) Wind, solar, other energy



Schedule for Module

Background Information• Computers

– Evolution of computers with a focus on technological discontinuities (mainframe, mini-, personal, and portable computer)

– Impact of improved ICs and other components on emergence of discontinuities in computers

• Hard Disks– evolution of hard disks with a focus on technological

discontinuities– Impact of increased recording density of platters on emergence

of discontinuities in hard disk systems• Bio-electronics

– falling cost of sequencing and synthesizing DNA– Impact of ICs and other components on improvements in

sequencing and synthesizing equipment

Potential Technologies to Analyze

• Cloud/utility computing – Software as a service; choose a specific type of software– Storage as a service, Infrastructure as a service, Platform as a service

• tablet computers, e-books, one laptop per child or other low-end laptop computers and their complementary software and peripherals

• next generations of blade servers, database software, and cooling systems for data centers

• new operating systems (e.g., ones based on Linux) and their complementary software

• Smaller hard disk drive systems• Impact of falling cost of synthesizing and sequencing equipment

on bio-tech industry and role of scaling• New forms of human computer interface: gestures, voice, neural








Schedule for Module

Internet Content and Applications• Background information by me and guest speakers

– evolution of Internet in terms of hardware and content– historical and continued impact of improved semiconductors, hard disks,

fiber optics, and other components on the technological evolution of the Internet

• Potential opportunities to analyze include:– Social networking sites– Community sites (e.g., Wikipedia) – Collaborative sites– 3-D content and video– Video conferencing (e.g., Telepresence)– Mashups– Education and health care– new search engines– E-taste








Schedule for Module

Background Information• Technological evolution of

– music (records, tape, CDs)– video (tape, DVD)– broadcasting (radio, TV, cable, satellite)– mobile phone (1G, 2G, 3G, mobile Internet)– lighting and other systems– Autonomous vehicles

• Historical and continued impact of improved– semiconductors, tape, hard disk, optical disks, fiber optics,

lasers, and other components on the technological evolution of these systems

Potential Technologies to Analyze

• Autonomous vehicles• Smart phones or new mobile phone systems such as

cognitive radio• Voice over Internet Protocol: VoIP• New types of printers such as MEMS (microelectronic

mechanical systems) based or 3D ones• IPTV• Home entertainment systems• Smart lighting systems that use LEDs• Security systems and the end of privacy – when will

almost everything be recorded?





6-10 Detailed presentations on 1) Computers, related products, utility computing; 2) Internet content and applications; 3) Other electronic systems; 4) Semiconductors/displays/ nanotechnology/bio-electronics; 5) Wind, solar, other energy



Schedule for Module

Background Information• Evolution of semiconductor products

– integrated circuits, logic chips, memory, microprocessors, Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs)

– Role of improved equipment and processes, i.e., Moore’s Law, in the technological evolution of semiconductors

– Limits to scaling in ICs• Potential replacements of semiconductor ICs:

memristers, phase change memory, magnetic RAM• Other technologies that are related to ICs

– photonics/optical computing– Bio-electronics– MEMS: microelectronic mechanical systems– Displays: 2D and 3D displays, holographic systems

Potential Technologies to analyze (1)

• Improvements to existing chips– System on Chip (SoC), configurable processors – Larger wafers (scaling)– New types of application specific standard products (ASSPs) or

ASICs that are being developed for new types of electronic systems (see previous slides)

– Key point: many new electronic systems emerge since chip sets such as ASSPs become available

• Other/related technologies– micro-machines, MEMS, Photonics/optical computing, phase

change memory, memristors, magnetic RAM– Bio-electronics, laboratories (e.g., DNA or water testers) on a

chip– chips containing drugs that enable new form of drug delivery

via an implanted or digested chip

Potential Technologies to Analyze (2)• New forms of displays

– 3D Displays– OLEDs– electronic paper– touch screens– and scaling (both thinner layers and larger production

equipment) in displays– Holographic displays

• New types of equipment for displays and semiconductors (and for solar cells, batteries, fuel cells, etc.) and scaling in them– Photolithographic – Plasma etching– Chemical and physical vapor deposition– Sputtering








Schedule for Module

Wind, Solar, and Other Energy

• Background information by guest speakers– Wind turbines – evolution of scaling in wind turbines– Solar cells – evolution of types, efficiencies, and costs per area – Electric vehicles – evolution of batteries

• Potential opportunities to analyze include– New forms of wind turbine designs or materials for larger

wind turbines– New forms of solar cells (organic, dye-sensitized), scaling in

solar cells (thinner layers, larger production equipment), and new types of processes

– New forms of batteries and scaling in them (smaller nano-particles)








Schedule for Module

Technologies Analyzed in Previous Classes and Available on Slide Share

• Human computer interfaces• Cadmium Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) solar

cells• 3D printing• Cognitive radio• 3D LCD televisions• Ink Jet Printers with MEMS• 3D Holography

• Any Questions?

New Industries: Helping Students Create Them

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Transcript of New Industries: Helping Students Create Them